Tuesday, August 9, 2022


This is coolbert:

 “the enemy ran out of bullets before we ran out of men”.

Strictly here I address the Russian army suffering a BREAKDOWN from excessive casualties the Ukraine Conflict.

Can it be determined from historical example to some degree of accuracy if this will occur and when?

"As Many as 80,000 Russian Forces Killed, Wounded in Ukraine: Pentagon"

From usnews.com the story by Paul D. Shinkman | Aug. 8, 2022.

"The damning assessment comes as the Defense Department hopes new shipments of military supplies will break the burgeoning stalemate as Ukraine, too, faces high casualties."

The ETERNAL RUSSIAN STEAMROLLER in action as it  has been, is now, always will be?

Profligate use of manpower almost immune to manpower loss?

A steamroller however as in World War One not so totally immune to excessive casualties. There WAS a BREAKDOWN point for the Russian Imperial Army.

NOR was any army in the conflict for that matter immune to BREAKDOWN! All the major combatants during the conflict had their armies at one time or another suffered BREAKDOWN.

It can even be predicted with some degree of accuracy from the experience of World War One when BREAKDOWN will occur?

From Sir John Keegan "The face of Battle":

"Counting the fighting infantry of a division at 10,000, and the number of British, French, Italian an Russian divisions engaged against the central powers at 60, 110, 45, and 120, we get figures of 600,000, 1,100,000, 450,000 and 1,200,000 which are more or less the totals of deaths [KIA] suffered by each combatant power at the moment its army underwent collapse or crisis."

Breakdown or crisis occurring among the various combatants during the latter period of the Great War when the number of KIA at the point of collapse about equal to the number of troops remaining in the field during sustained combat operations a prolonged conflict.

Making an assumption here that 2/5th of those 80,000 Russian casualties killed-in-action unto this point that amounts to about 23,000 Russian KIA. [a 250:100 wounded to killed ratio]

That invading Russian force the Ukraine Conflict 24 February about 120,000 troops. Assuming that current Russian contingent Ukraine about 100,000 soldiers we are hardly close to the point where a BREAKDOWN will occur.

The historical example of WW1 is hardly valid it can be argued. Anyone can suggest a better way of determining BREAKING point?


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