Groundwork.

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Moldova. East of Romania. Romania a constituent member of NATO.

Trouble a-brewing Has been for time. Now an enhanced wariness.

"Why Moldova fears it could be next for Putin"

From CNN.com ^ | February 26, 2023 | Rob Picheta the tip from Freeper.

"Tensions are mounting in Moldova, a small country on Ukraine’s southwestern border, where Russia has been accused of laying the groundwork for a coup that could drag the nation into the Kremlin’s war. Moldova’s President, Maia Sandu, has accused Russia of using 'saboteurs' disguised as civilians to stoke unrest amid a period of political instability, echoing similar warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky"

Need I remind devoted readers to the blog of the importance of the Soviet/Russian arms depot Cobasna? Enough armament that one facility to equip a Soviet era Combined Arms Army.

 See all previous blog entries all association of Moldova to the Ukraine Conflict:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/08/compromise.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/07/kolbasna.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/cobasna.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/rgd-5.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/04/dneister.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/11/budjak-republic.html

coolbert.

Compromise.

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It is not that I don't believe this, it is more than I don't want to believe this! 

From www.unz.com the article by BRETT REDMAYNE-TITLEY • APRIL 28, 2022 • 

Shapes of things to come Moldova? Moldova right next door to Ukraine with a restive Russian-speaking population and the largest arms depot [Soviet/Russian armaments] in all of Europe.

Devoted readers to the blog pay heed this article was written in April of this year. A lot has changed since then.

"Ukraine, Romania, Moldova ... vs. Transnistria: A WW III Scenario"

"The tiny and peaceful nation of Moldova will soon be dragged into the Ukraine/Russia war. Historical and current geopolitical reasons are in play and being applied against Russia’s widening eastern front moving westwards. However, it is the southern Ukrainian region from Odessa to the Moldovan Transnistria that may trigger an escalation towards World War."

An expanding Ukrainian Conflict with the battlefield moving west along the northern shore of the Black Sea toward Odessa will greatly imperil Moldova. Especially within the context of the arms depot Cobasna. Compromise Moldova and you additionally compromise Romania? Romania hardly I think remind devoted readers to the blog a constituent member of NATO.

Further that current border between Moldova and Romania close to the geographic area of the great military interest and value called the Focșani Gate.

"The Focșani Gate . . . is a militarily and strategically vulnerable area in Romania and NATO. Control of the Focșani Gate allows entry into vast tracts of Romanian territory and several other regions of Europe."

Devoted readers to the blog also might want to refer to this pdf document from 2019 a staff study and [?] wargame of an attack by the Russian military on Romania the goal control of the Focșani Gate to further expedite offensive operations in case of a NATO/Russia conflict.

As extracted from the pdf document: "In the case of Romania, having in mind Romania’s neighborhood, it can be added to the general conclusion the reality that one of the most powerful, militarily speaking, country in the world, possessing, among other weaponry, one of the most destructive nuclear arsenal, has proved to be politically and strategically restless, choosing to tramp over its word by breaking promises, arrangements and treaties it put its signature on."

As to what country is seen as a threat to the Romanian, devoted readers to the blog draw your own conclusions!

coolbert.

Kolbasna.

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"'the largest munitions depot' . . .  'Of course, for the Ukrainian army which is right now totally starved of missiles, bullets and weapons, getting hold of these supplies would be extremely helpful, but this would be sour grapes'" - Andrey Kartapolov Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee.

21 JUL 22.

The Second Front the Ukraine Conflict. Moldova and Transnistria?

"West highly interested in opening second front in Transnistria, says Russian MP"

Thanks to the Russian controlled [?] Internet media outlet TASS.

"MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. Western countries are extremely interested in opening a second front in Transnistria, thinking that this will take pressure off of Ukraine’s armed forces, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov said on Thursday."

"The West, as we understand, in the current situation is highly interested in opening this second front. This is related to their idea that, if this front opens, Russia will be forced to redeploy some of its means in the direction of Transnistria, thus alleviating pressure from the Ukrainian army in Ukraine’s south-east and east," the lawmaker said during a roundtable discussion on Russia’s peacekeeping operation in Transnistria at the Federation Council.

That Russian army depot Transistria possessing enough armaments to equip a conventional Soviet era combined arms army. Such an army consisting of three infantry divisions + one tank division. A lot military bang stuff that Russian guarded depot.

See previous blog entries as germane the weapons depot:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/rgd-5.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/04/dneister.html

coolbert.

Cobasna.

This is coolbert:

Russian peacekeepers Transnistria [Moldova] under attack. Not so much peacekeepers but weapons depot guards? 

Peacekeepers as deemed under attack by a drone dropping hand grenades! A prelude of much bigger things to come? Surely we hope not!

Consider within context THE COBASNA AMMUNITION DEPOT!

"The Cobasna ammunition depot has been referred to as one of the largest if not the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe and contains up to 20,000 tons of Soviet-era weapons from the 14th Guards Army of the USSR and also from the former states of Czechoslovakia and East Germany. Currently, it is guarded by around 1,500 Russian soldiers. Ever since Russia's conflict with Ukraine, there has been growing distress in Moldova for the Cobasna ammunition depot, with some believing that the weapons there could be used in a potential future military conflict."

ARMAMENTS AS ON-HAND COBASNA ENOUGH TO EQUIP AN ENTIRE RUSSIAN ARMY OF MULTIPLE DIVISIONS. STATUS OF EQUIPMENT DISREPAIR AFTER SEVERAL DECADES HARD TO ASCERTAIN!

Transnistria previously [as of this last April] subjected to "attack" from a yet to be identified assailant. Secret service "dark forces" at work?

"Possible 'false flag' attacks in the Russian-backed separatist Moldovan territory of Transnistria this week have raised concerns of a new front opening in the conflict."

As for the weapons depot think not so much Moldova with regard to the Ukraine Conflict. Think more toward Romania, NATO and the Focșani Gate? I don't want to think so but indeed the thought has entered into my mind.

More to follow.

coolbert.

RGD-5.

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"'An unidentified aerial vehicle (drone) dropped two explosive devices, presumably RGD-5 grenades, at vehicle park of Transnistrian peacekeeping contingent reserve unit near the settlement of Vladimirovka. No injuries or damages were sustained,'" 

Drone attack Transnistria. Culprits their identify still unknown.

From the Russian controlled [?] Internet web site TASS.,

"Transnistrian investigators report sabotage against peacekeepers"

CHISINAU, June 6. /TASS/. The tip from Jax.

"On May 25, Transnistrian authorities lowered the terror threat level from red to yellow"

Reduced terror level!

"The Investigative Committee of Transnistria reported a sabotage, carried out in peacekeeping contingent deployment location."

My comments:

* What peacekeeping contingent? 1,500 Russian troops permanently stationed Transnistria [east bank of the Dneister] Moldova.

* My initial response was that this drone was Ukrainian dropping a shaped charge. NO! RGD-5 a conventional Soviet era hand grenade and not a shaped charge anti-armor grenade.

* Read further those peacekeepers their mission strictly [?] the guarding of the Cobasna ammunition depot. ONLY two kilometers [about three and one-half miles] from the Ukrainian border. Prepare yourself for a mighty bang if that depot goes.

More to follow!

coolbert.

Dneister.

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Trans-Dneister Moldova restive Russians? As related to the Ukraine Conflict?

"Moldova Rocked by Attacks"

As reported by NewsMax Tuesday, 26 April.

"The breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria raised its 'terrorist threat level' to red on Tuesday and introduced checkpoints after several blasts in the region, its official news agency said."

"The Russia-backed region has been hit by several attacks in the past day, local authorities say, after a military unit was targeted, blasts at Transdniestria's state security HQ and two explosions damaged old Soviet-era radio antennas"

Area Moldova east of the Dneister river predominantly Russian speakers. Restive and angry as before them were the populations of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Now in context of the Ukraine Conflict consider these "terrorist actions".

Adherents to the concept of the self-proclaimed Budjak Republic making noise? This all remains to be seen.

See addtionally all prior blog entries the topic Moldova and the wayward Russian speaking population thereof:

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/moldovatransnistria.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/04/trans-dneister.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/chisinau.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/02/revanchist.html

Consider also the Focsani Gate and the importance to the NATO constituent state of Romania:

"The Focșani Gate (Romanian: Poarta Focșani or Poarta Focșanilor) is a militarily and strategically vulnerable area in Romania and NATO. Control of the Focșani Gate allows entry into vast tracts of Romanian territory and several other regions of Europe."

Let the Russian tank divisions, tank armies and groups of tank armies roll! All out of nowhere, all of a sudden. What else?

coolbert.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foc%C8%99ani_Gate

Budjak Republic.

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As I have speculated about and anticipated seems now to be on the verge of occurring.

Russian speaking separatists restive and making ready for things to come.

First Crimea, then the eastern part of Ukraine. NOW Moldova.

From intelNews.org:

"Moldova arrests paramilitaries who ‘planned pro-Russian uprising’"

"Police in Moldova says it arrested members of a paramilitary group who allegedly planned to attack several cities and establish a separatist pro-Russian enclave. According to Moldovan authorities, the group, whose members include Ukrainian and Russian nationals, aimed to create a pro-Russian republic along the lines of the Donetsk People’s Republic in Ukraine. Representatives from Moldova’s General Police Inspectorate told journalists on Thursday that they began monitoring a group calling itself 'Budjak Republic' in October, after pro-Russian supporters in Moldova’s Russian-dominated south began calling for independence"

See previous blog entries regarding Moldova:

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/moldovatransnistria.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/04/trans-dneister.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/chisinau.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/02/revanchist.html

coolbert.

Revanchist.

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1939 deja vu all  over again?

Those eastern European nations now constituent members of NATO keenly aware of Russian revanchist attitudes, alert and to a degree wary of American and NATO reassurance!

1. "Baltic States Compete With Russia in TV Battle for Hearts and Minds"

"RIGA/VILNIUS — Responding to what they see as a wave of Kremlin propaganda over Ukraine, the governments of the three Baltic states are keeping a wary eye on pro-Moscow television channels and stepping up their own broadcasts in Russian."

"Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all part of the Soviet Union until 1991, are nervous of a newly assertive Russia and fret that their large Russian-speaking minorities could be susceptible to Moscow's message."

2. "Romania Keen to Help Moldova Drive for Closer Ties with EU to Dampen Russian Influence"

"A stone's throw from the mounted T-34 Soviet tank in the center of this Moldovan city is an emergency ambulance service set up by Romania, one of several soft power moves to steer its eastern neighbor away from Moscow's orbit."

"Wary of Russian intentions after Ukraine lost control of Crimea and much of its east to Russian-backed forces last year, Romania is trying to bring Moldova towards the European Union."

These eastern European nations perceive, rightly or wrongly, that the Crimea and Ukraine ARE NOT THE END! Russian meddling is not going to stop. AND NATO IS HARDLY A GUARANTEE IF BAD BECOMES WORSE!

In particular see prior blog entries regarding Moldova:

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/moldovatransnistria.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/04/trans-dneister.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/chisinau.html

Donbass today, Chisinau tomorrow?

coolbert.

Chisinau.

This is coolbert:

Again, we have the possibility of something very big transpiring. Russian meddling with para-military home-grown and otherwise is a possibility here.

As with the Ukraine, Moldova having a large and restive Russian speaking population and as with the Ukraine that portion of the whole not favoring closer ties with European Union but rather with Moscow.

"Partial results: Moldova parties favoring EU ahead"

"CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) Partial results from Sunday's elections in Moldova show parties that want to move closer to Europe leading those that want to move back into Moscow's sphere of influence."

"The parliamentary election has taken on wider significance with the unrest in neighboring Ukraine. Moldova, like Ukraine, has a pro-Russia separatist region in its east."

"Early results showed pro-Russia parties with a strong lead. But as more votes were counted, the gap closed and the lead changed."

. . . .

"The impoverished former Soviet republic of less than 4 million people is torn between re-electing the current pro-European coalition and choosing parties that want closer economic ties with Moscow."

Do we go east or do we go west or what? That is the question.

The Moldovan population more or less evenly divided among Romanian, Russian, and Ukrainian nationalities.

See previous blog entries regarding Moldova:

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/moldovatransnistria.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/04/trans-dneister.html

"Russian military forces have remained on Moldovan territory; since 1993 they have been stationed in the breakaway territory of Transnistria against the will of the Moldovan Government."

AND THOSE RUSSIAN MILITARY FORCES REMAIN ON MOLDOVAN TERRITORY? I AM NOT SURE.

coolbert.

Trans-Dneister.

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NOT forgotten this blog entry from almost six years ago now.

The significance of which cannot be minimized when taken within the current Ukraine context.

Moldova and Trans-Dneister.

"Here is another Russian-speaking area, Moldova/Trans-Dneister, not contiguous to the Russian 'motherland', where we may see future agitation and strife. Conflict leading to military action on the part of the Russian. An embattled and 'mis-treated' Russian minority, desiring succor and eventual reunification with 'Big Brother' in Moscow?"

"Breakdown of ethnic groups (2005)":

"32% Moldovans 31% Russians 29% Ukrainians"

A conflict having the potentiality of the proverbial "civilizational clash". Language, history, and religion! A volatile and dangerous mix.

Moldova/Trans-Dneister NOT having a contiguous border with the Russian Federation. BUT having a large and restive Russian-speaking population.

That Russian-speaking populace of Moldova/Trans-Dneister concentrated too, that area along the Dneister river predominantly Russian ethnics. Where there is concentration of focused energy there is strength!

Rumania I bring to your attention a constituent member of NATO!

coolbert.

Moldova/Transnistria

This is coolbert:

Again from the excellent web site: "Global Futures: Forecasting Patterns, Determining Alternatives, and Mitigating Risk"

Here is another Russian-speaking area, Moldova/Trans-Dneister, not contiguous to the Russian "motherland", where we may see future agitation and strife. Conflict leading to military action on the part of the Russian. An embattled and "mis-treated" Russian minority, desiring succor and eventual reunification with "Big Brother" in Moscow?


That breakdown of ethnic groups (2005):

32% Moldovans 31% Russians 29% Ukrainians

"Russia Threatens Moldova with Transnistria Independences"

August 25th, 2008 by Ferleman

"Does Russia have its sights on Moldova and the breakaway republic of Transnistria? Along the banks of the River Dniester rests the Russian-speaking Moldovan province of Transnistria. Bordered by Bessarabia to the West and Ukraine to the East, Transnistria has all the makings of a new Russian front."

Makings!! That is all it is for now. But there IS precedent in this part of the world [Moldova/Trans-Dneister] for military action on the part of the Russian, on behalf of their Russian-speaking compatriots!

"Russian military forces have remained on Moldovan territory; since 1993 they have been stationed in the breakaway territory of Transnistria against the will of the Moldovan Government."

A heightened degree of strife, conflict, even military action by the Russian in Moldova would surely be a sign for the worse.

coolbert.