Again from the excellent web site: "Global Futures: Forecasting Patterns, Determining Alternatives, and Mitigating Risk"
Here is another Russian-speaking area, Moldova/Trans-Dneister, not contiguous to the Russian "motherland", where we may see future agitation and strife. Conflict leading to military action on the part of the Russian. An embattled and "mis-treated" Russian minority, desiring succor and eventual reunification with "Big Brother" in Moscow?
The area in red is Trans-Dneister. A mere strip of land, along the Dneister river, the inhabitants primarily Russian speakers.
That breakdown of ethnic groups (2005):
32% Moldovans 31% Russians 29% Ukrainians
"Russia Threatens Moldova with Transnistria Independences"
August 25th, 2008 by Ferleman
"Does Russia have its sights on Moldova and the breakaway republic of Transnistria? Along the banks of the River Dniester rests the Russian-speaking Moldovan province of Transnistria. Bordered by Bessarabia to the West and Ukraine to the East, Transnistria has all the makings of a new Russian front."
Makings!! That is all it is for now. But there IS precedent in this part of the world [Moldova/Trans-Dneister] for military action on the part of the Russian, on behalf of their Russian-speaking compatriots!
"Russian military forces have remained on Moldovan territory; since 1993 they have been stationed in the breakaway territory of Transnistria against the will of the Moldovan Government."
A heightened degree of strife, conflict, even military action by the Russian in Moldova would surely be a sign for the worse.
Regarding the web site: "Global Futures: Forecasting Patterns, Determining Alternatives, and Mitigating Risk", the author certainly has an impressive resume and is hardly lacking in credentials:
"Dr. Ferleman serves as the editor, forum moderator, and chief researcher for the Global Future forum." Credentials to include:
* A doctorate in Strategic Leadership from Regent University
* A Master of Business Administration (MBA)
* A Masters of Science in Management (MSM)
* A B.S. in Government and Politics from the University of Maryland University College (UMUC)