Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Djibouti.

This is coolbert:

NOT FOR SIX HUNDRED YEARS HAS THERE BEEN SUCH A PRESENCE!

Thanks to Jungle Trader for the tip. CLICK ON ALL IMAGES TO SEE AN ENLARGED VIEW.

"Foreign Minister: China to Build Navy Base in Djibouti"

"JOHANNESBURG — China is to build its first naval base in Djibouti, the Djiboutian foreign minister said Friday, in the latest sign of China's growing international security presence. . . . . A former French colony, Djibouti guards the entrance to the Red Sea and, ultimately, the Suez Canal, and has been used by international navies as a hub in the fight against piracy from neighbouring Somalia."

DON'T THINK PIRATES, SUEZ CANAL OR RED SEA!

Rather think Admiral Zheng He and the String of Pearls!

"Voyages of Zheng He 1405-1433"

"The ships of Zheng's armada were as astonishing as its reach. Some accounts claim that the great baochuan, or treasure ships, had nine masts on 400-foot-long (122-meter-long) decks. The largest wooden ships ever built, they dwarfed those of Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama. Hundreds of smaller cargo, war, and supply ships bore tens of thousands of men who brought China to a wider world."




"The String of Pearls theory is a geopolitical theory regarding potential Chinese intentions in the Indian Ocean region. It refers to the network of Chinese military and commercial facilities and relationships along its sea lines of communication, which extend from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan."

"The emergence of the String of Pearls is indicative of China’s growing geopolitical influence through concerted efforts to increase access to ports and airfields, expand and modernize military forces, and foster stronger diplomatic relationships with trading partners."

See other web sites and also from the blog regarding the String of Pearls:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/String_of_Pearls_%28Indian_Ocean%29

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/machinations.html

http://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2007/04/china-string-of-pearls-strategy.html

coolbert.

Monday, February 8, 2016

Crisis Management.

This is coolbert:

Heeding the admonitions and warnings of the British Admiral Parry from that time beginning in 2012 and until now I have been keenly aware of those events or disturbances that might result in a breakdown of the existing world order as we understand it today.

To clarify a break down of the existing world order as we understand it today but not necessarily a breakdown in totality of the world order, just a DIFFERENT type of world order as a consequence.

Events and disturbances as having made my list but to include:

* Cyclone Nargis.

* The capture of Mosul by ISIL.

* Russian intervention in the Syrian Civil War.

* The Ebola epidemic.

* The European mass refugee crisis.

* A precipitous drop in the price of oil.

"Events and disturbances" as described having the possibility of setting off a chain reaction of unforeseen and calamitous nature. Mass migrations of people, WAR, chaotic conditions, everything a crisis management situation without any hope of peaceful, orderly, and lawful resolution.

IT WILL BECOME EVERY NATION FOR ITSELF! PRIMARILY TOO A MAD-DASH SCRAMBLING FOR SCARCE OR VALUABLE RESOURCES.

With regard to that "drop in the price of oil" consider that three nations acknowledged as potentially unstable and also highly reliant on a much higher price for a barrel of oil. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia. National budgets predicated on a price/barrel of $100 USD.

ANYONE care to add to my list?

coolbert.

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Johnson CoS.

This is coolbert:

I was mildly surprised to see the name of this man as associated with the actions of the First Cavalry Division in Korea.

General Harold K. Johnson. Chief of Staff [CoS] of the United States Army during that most important phase of the Vietnam War.

Having survived a very long and cruel captivity as a prisoner of the Japanese during the Second World War [WW2] and also having been present at the Phase One and Phase Two of the Chinese Communist ground offensive in Korea [1950] I would  have had to think if there was any man that fully understood the danger and peril of the American army engaging in an Asian ground war it would be General Johnson.

That "danger and peril" being an adversary able to deploy into combat prodigious numbers of ground troops and using same in a profligate manner, almost totally heedless of losses.

IT DOES SEEM THAT GENERAL JOHNSON WAS CONCERNED ABOUT AMERICAN ACTION IN VIETNAM, THOSE POLICIES AND PRACTICES REGARDING THE WAR EFFORT QUESTIONABLE AND IN HINDSIGHT THE MAN PROVEN CORRECT.

Concerns such as:

1. A war of attrition would not work in Vietnam.

2. A general mobilization of American resources and manpower not occurring.

"Harold Keith 'Johnny' Johnson  was Chief of Staff of the United States Army from 1964 to 1968. Regarded as a premier tactician, Johnson became skeptical that the level of resources given to the Vietnam War, much of which went into 'find, fix, and destroy the big main force units' operations, could deliver victory."

". . .  In his later years Johnson said it had been obvious that US national mobilization was required to win in Vietnam, and he regretted not resigning in protest at the government asking the army to fight a war without hope of ultimate victory."

Part and parcel of army basic training during that time of "Vietnam being required to memorize your chain of command. As it was at the time:

* President Lyndon Baines Johnson.
* Secretary of Defense Robert S. MacNamara.
* Secretary of the Army Stanley Resor.
* Chief of Staff Harold K. Johnson.

See, I can still do it. Even fifty years later. And am so much the better for it too!

coolbert.

Gotland.

This is coolbert:

Also the Swedish commanding officer General Anders Brännström has these events in mind when he predicts the possibility of a new European and world war in the near future?

Sweden for many decades [centuries now?] one of the three internationally recognized neutral nations in the world. Austria and Switzerland the other two. Sweden now not so neutral?

From British sources thanks to the tip from Freeper.

1. "Russian menace pushes Sweden towards Nato"

. . . .

"After more than 20 years of strategic irrelevance, and thanks to increasingly unpredictable Russian behaviour, Gotland is back in the spotlight."

2. "Russia 'simulated a nuclear strike' against Sweden, Nato admits"

"Russian bombers targeted military and intelligence installations in 2013 war game that caught Swedish airforce unprepared"
           
. . . .

"Two Tupolev Tu-22M3 strategic bombers escorted by four Sukhoi Su-27 jet fighters crossed the Gulf of Finland and came within 24 miles of Swedish territory off the island of Gotland, 100 miles from Stockholm, on March 29, 2013."

DEVOTED READERS TO THE BLOG WILL INSTANTLY UNDERSTAND THAT THIS SIMULATED NUCLEAR STRIKE ON THE SWEDES DOES NOT EXIST IN A VACUUM. IT HAPPENED TO THE DANES TOO! AS WAS THE TOPIC OF A PRIOR BLOG ENTRY!

DEVOTED READERS TO THE BLOG ARE OFTEN FAR AHEAD OF THE LEARINJG CURVE WHAT THEY CALL IT!!

для ГРУ офицеров. Пожалуйста, скажите товарищ путин остановить!!

coolbert.

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Sunni & Alawite.

This is coolbert:

The Islamic State continues with offensive action in Syria?

As reported by the latest edition of the DEBKAfile newsletter:

"More than 45 killed in ISIS suicide attack at Shiite shrine in Damascus"

31 January.

"ISIS brought the Sunni extremist war on Shiites to a new peak Sunday with a multiple suicide attack in the compound of the Shiite shrine, the Sayyida Zeinab tomb in southern Damascus. At least 45 people were killed and 120 injured by two suicide bombers and a third who drove a bomb car at the guarded gate."

1. The incorporation of the suicide bomber or multiples of suicide bombers into all military operations a trademark of the Islamic State.

2. ISIL striking at holy places of the Shia in a deliberate, perverse and malicious manner. The Alawites of the despot Assad aligned with Shia. Shia to the Sunnie worse than the kuffar?

coolbert.


Friday, February 5, 2016

MiG-31 Foxhound.

 This is coolbert:

Continued difficulties and problems for another MiG warplane. Foxhound.

As seen at Strategy Page:

"Warplanes: MiG-31 Miasma"

"January 31, 2016: In late January a Russian MiG-31 jet fighter was lost due to unspecified equipment failure. The air force grounded all 120 MiG-31s until the exact cause could be determined. The most likely culprit is age which is why in late 2015 the air force received $378 million to upgrade another 50 of the older MiG-31s to the MiG-31BM standard. Unfortunately the recent crash was of a BM model as were some previous crashes. The latest crash was not unexpected. There have already been problems with recently refurbished MiG-31s. The most common problem has been the engines although one crash was due to landing gear problems. The refurbishment includes the D30F6 engines, which were tweaked and upgraded to make them more powerful, efficient and reliable. Yet there have been several crashes involving these upgraded engines. In December 2013 Russia grounded all 122 of its MiG-31 fighters after one of them crashed because both of its engines failed."

MiG-31 an air interceptor. Foxhound a stretch fuselage two-seater warplane based on the original MiG-25 Foxbat. Strictly an interceptor for air defense and not an air superiority fighter plane.


MiG warplanes for some time found to be lacking.

To be absolutely 100 % fair the difficulties in this instance is with the D30F6 engines and not with the MiG designed airframe. Those engines NOT a product of the MiG design bureau.

See previous Strategy Page articles dealing with the MiG problem, historical and present:

https://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/MiG-Aircraft-Corporation-On-Life-Support-10-19-2013.asp

https://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/Rumble-Over-Russian-Aircraft-Reliability-3-10-2013.asp

coolbert.

Thursday, February 4, 2016

K-19 V.

This is coolbert:

Conclusion.

Han class down!

During that period of the Cold War it was not only American and Soviet submarines colliding underwater. Others too!

Continuing with extracts and commentary from the book: : "K-19, The Widowmaker" by the American author Peter Huchthausen.

1983 June.

"Pacific Fleet Victor III-class SSGN, K-324 from the Pacific Base of Rakushka collided with the Chinese Han-class SSN  . . . the Han sank to a depth of one Km [about 3,000 feet] near Ashkold Island with the loss of its entire 70-man crew. A Soviet survey in 1989  . . . commissioned by the  Pacific Fleet, detected extremely high radiation levels measuring 1,000 roentgen per hour [877 rad/hour] within a five-mile radius of the broken hull of the Han SSN."

An exposure of 500 rads per hour a lethal dose to a human for which there is no remedy! A dose of 250 rads per hour not necessarily lethal but enough to instantly incapacitate a human!

"OBITUARIES APPEARING IN CHINESE NEWSPAPER CONFIRMED THAT MANY CHINESE SENIOR SUBMARINE DESIGNERS WERE LOST IN A SUBMARINE ACCIDENT IN 1983."

[all bold my emphasis]

Further regarding the Han class Chinese nuclear submarine:

"The Han-Class is well known for having a noisy reactor and poor radiation shielding, which causes health hazards for her crew as nuclear radiation levels are higher than they should be aboard the submarine." 

Again, the loss of so many senior design personnel their specialty submarine design creating a problem not easily remedied. Institutional memory and experience not easily replaced!

coolbert.