Thursday, September 20, 2018

DMZ Syria.

This is coolbert:

World War Three has been averted? Thank President Erdogan of Turkey if this is so!!

From Freeper and thanks to same.

"US military welcomes Russian-Turkish DMZ agreement in Syria....."

"The U.S. military Tuesday said it supported a plan to establish a demilitarized zone in northern Syria that would separate rebels in their last stronghold from advancing government forces. The agreement to create a buffer zone was worked out Monday in a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held in Sochi, Russia. Russia’s defense minister said that under the agreement, Syria would refrain from launching an offensive on Idlib Province, the last major rebel stronghold."

Erdogan having in mind primarily the Uighur? Ethnic Turkish people who have established themselves in that area of Syria in/around Idlib.

A massive and overwhelming attack on Idlib by a combined Russian/Syrian/Hezbollah/Iranian force has been averted? A negotiated settlement can be amicably arrived at? Hard to see that the case but let us hope for the best.

See previous blog entries the topic of which was Idlib.

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/09/china-idlib.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/09/atw.html

Cooler heads are now going to prevail?

coolbert.



Wednesday, September 19, 2018

GoT.

This is coolbert:

Coot gone. Follow-up number two. From Freeper.

We now have a more cogent and reasonable explanation of what occurred with the Russian Il-20 Coot surveillance warplane shoot-down.

ISRAEL IS INVOLVED BUT ONLY INDIRECTLY SO?

THIS DOES SOUND AS GULF OF TONKIN [GoT] DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN! INDEED!!

1. "BREAKING NEWS: Russian Aircraft Downed.. Israelis Set Plane Up..Right To 'Adequate Response'"

"Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has expressed his outrage to Israel's Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman after 15 Russian servicemen died when their plane was shot down by Syrian air defenses during a sudden Israeli air attack. Russia's Defense Ministry says 4 Israeli F-16's used the larger Russian IL-20 plane as a decoy for their attack on the northern Syria city of Latakia."

2. "Syria Shoots Down a Russian Military Plane, and Moscow Blames Israel"

"Syrian antiaircraft missiles shot down a Russian military aircraft carrying 15 service members off the Syrian coast Monday night, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Moscow angrily blamed the Israeli military for what appeared to be a case of friendly fire, saying the Israelis were conducting air raids in the area and had given only a minute’s warning, too little for the Il-20 surveillance plane to fly out of harm’s way."

COOT USED AS A SHIELD BY ATTACKING ISRAELI WARPLANES?  IF THE ISRAELI DID SO IN A DELIBERATE MANNER THIS IS GOING TO BE CONTENTIOUS.

An "adequate response" I infer to some sort of mean retaliation in kind. Most worrisome!

coolbert.


Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Coot II.

This is coolbert:

Coot gone follow-up number one.

Gulf of Tonkin deja vu all over again? As I feared. So many possible culprits? Even fratricide.

Hold onto your hats everyone. This could get grim fast.

From various sources and the original tip from Al.

1. "Putin Says Israel Didn't Down Russian Aircraft; Netanyahu Offers Condolences"

"Earlier, Russia blamed downed military aircraft on Israel's 'deliberate provocations' striking Syria ■ France denies involvement, U.S. says plane shot down by Syrian air defense systems"

2. "Russia blames Israel after military plane shot down off Syria"

"Russia has said Syria shot down one of its military planes - but laid the blame for the deaths of the 15 personnel on board with Israel."

The Israeli did it. The Israeli did not do it. The Syrian did it. Etc. 

At this juncture cooler heads appear to be prevailing. I would hope so. A misinterpretation of events can lead to misguided and unwanted retaliation the consequences of which are both undesirable and unpredictable.

Nebel des Krieges!  Fog of war!

coolbert.



Coot IL-20.

This is coolbert:

Coot is gone! Fratricide Syria! 

This how a pattern of escalation spiraling rapidly out of control can begin.

Thanks to the tip from Freeper and further info as per the Aviationist.

1. "Syrian regime accidentally shoots down Russian military plane"

"A Russian maritime patrol aircraft with multiple personnel on board was inadvertently shot down by Syrian regime anti-aircraft artillery on Monday after the Syrians came under attack by Israeli missiles, according to a US official with knowledge of the incident"

My instantaneous thought was that this was RUSSIAN air defense shooting down their own aircraft. NOT the Syrians!

2. "Russia has deployed at least one Il-20 Coot spy plane to Syria"

"Along with the 28 combat planes that have arrived at al-Assad International Airport via Iran hiding under Il-76 cargo planes last week, the Russian Air Force has deployed at least one Il-20 Coot surveillance plane to Syria."

"Even though satellite imagery has not yet unveiled its presence on an apron at the airfield near Latakia, an Il-20 Coot spy plane has already arrived in Syria to reinforce the Russian contingent, according to one of our sources."

COOT analogous to the American P-3 Orion. "Spy plane" as referred with international and military markings not a SPY PLANE as that word SPY ordinarily, commonly and generally understood. Coot rather a reconnaissance and surveillance warplane.

Also my instantaneous reaction was GULF OF TONKIN INCIDENT!  The Russian will seek [hope not!!] some sort of misguided vengeance? As described before, there will occur a pattern of retaliation and escalation of hostilities between international players in the Syrian Civil War that will "spiral" out of control.

coolbert.


Monday, September 17, 2018

Warning!

This is coolbert:

BIG RED MOVES WEST! 2018 style with atomics?

Admonitions and warnings from the Russian directed at American Secretary of Defense Mattis.

If and when conflict between NATO and Russia commences, the use of atomic weapons not out of the question.

Move along folks. Nothing new to see here!

"Russia reportedly warned Mattis it could use nuclear weapons in Europe, and it made him see Moscow as an 'existential threat' to the US"

"Russia's warning to Mattis came in regard to the Baltic states, which have warned of Russia's growing interference."

Nothing new here? Think the Soviet battle plan for engaging NATO during the era of the Cold War

"Seven Days to the River Rhine".

SEVEN DAYS TO THE RHINE RIVER THE SOVIET GROUND INVASION OF NATO DEFENDED WEST GERMANY! AN  INVASION WHICH WOULD HAVE MADE WIDESPREAD AND LIBERAL USE OF ATOMIC WEAPONS.

The Baltic States [Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia] once incorporated into the old Soviet Union. Those nations now an integral part of NATO. An attack on the Baltics would be under Article Five of the NATO charter the same as an attack on the United States. An attack to be repelled using all means to do so.

Sounds scary, doesn't it? Well, it sounds scary because it is!

Let me scare you further and remind you that the Russian has brought out-of-mothballs the 240 mm mortar which allegedly has a nuclear weapons capability.

coolbert.



 


Monitors.

This is coolbert:

You are being watched!

From the Russian media outlet Russian Times [RT] and as originally reported by other sources.

More on the combined effort to track ship movements vicinity North Korea. Observe and report actual and possible embargo violations.

"US sets up coalition to track foreign ships delivering fuel to North Korea – report"


"A US Navy ship will reportedly host military personnel from the Five Eyes countries plus Japan and South Korea to monitor foreign vessels delivering fuel to the North in violation of UN sanctions.:

"The coalition will include the US, the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada – America’s partners within the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance – as well as Japan and South Korea, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing an American military official. This is apparently the first US-led effort to track fuel deliveries to North Korea."

See previous blog entries as germane:

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/09/ran-korea.html

http://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/09/kayforce-ii.html

Ships! Planes! Personnel! All this a demonstration of solidarity and resolve. Kim take note!

coolbert.


Sunday, September 16, 2018

Tank Italia.

This is coolbert:

GRU = Soviet military intelligence.

"There may be some people who underestimate Italy as a country of great thinker, but not the GRU. The GRU know that the Italians have very good brains, the brains of great inventors. Few people realize that before the Second World War Italy's technology was at an incredibly high level. The Italians were not especially brilliant in battle, and that obscured the extent of Italian achievement in military technology."

ARMOR ITALIAN STYLE! AS IT WAS IN THE ERA PRIOR TO WW2.


To be honest this You Tube video rather disappointing. Italian armor development from the era of the Great War through the Second World not of the innovative nature as I might have assumed. Italian tank designs based primarily on reverse engineering of already existing foreign models, the Italians incorporating small incremental changes and not a whole lot revolutionary concepts. Italian armor technology in all cases constrained by budget considerations. Italian genius as regards tank design not so terribly outstanding.

See my previous blog entry also the topic of which was Italian tanks as used in combat during the Second World War.

coolbert.