Monday, May 16, 2022

Atavistic.


This is coolbert:

Courtesy here the English tabloid "Daily Mail" the article by the distinguished military writer Antony Beever.

Sir Antony Knight Bachelor!

"From the Tsars to the Bolsheviks, Putin is just the latest incarnation of Russia's lust to dominate its borderlands with bloodshed: War historian ANTONY BEEVOR on why the horror in Ukraine was all too predictable"

By ANTONY BEEVOR FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY 14 May 2022.

"No country is as much a prisoner of its past as Russia. And no leader has become as much a victim of his own obsessive lies as Vladimir Putin. But where did this tragedy for the Russian people as well as Ukraine begin? And why did we not see this coming after the unspeakable brutality of Putin's conduct of war in Chechnya and Syria, deliberately using barrel bombs and nerve gas against civilian populations?"

"I [Beevor] certainly cannot claim to be one of the very few who had foreseen Putin's reckless gamble of invading Ukraine. I [Beevor] also underestimated the lingering resentment against the West among the majority of largely older Russians who get all their news from Kremlin-controlled media."

"Putin is famous for his pronouncement that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geo-political disaster of the 20th Century. This was backed by a widespread conviction in Russia that the Cold War had been lost through a dirty trick after the US under Ronald Reagan deliberately outspent them on armaments."

"The consequence of that collapse was war veterans and widows begging in the Metro, after their pensions became worth less than £4 [$ 6 USD] a week."

Devoted readers to the blog please read the remainder of the article. Antony his expertise and knowledge of Russia very good indeed.

THE UKRAINE CONFLICT! WHY? I SUPPOSE ASK TEN DIFFERENT EXPERTS AND YOU WILL GET ELEVEN DIFFERENT ANSWERS. ALL SEEMINGLY VALID.

coolbert.






Formality.

This is coolbert:

Finland and Sweden have NOW resolved to JOIN NATO. And SOONER than LATER.

But with one glitch!

"glitch: noun - 1a: a usually minor malfunction b: a minor problem that causes a temporary setback" 

1. "Finland, Sweden to meet with Turkey over NATO"

5/15/2022, 11:41:28 AM · by Kaslin · 30 replies

First from Hot Air .com ^ | May 15, 2022 | JAZZ SHAW the tip from Freeper.

"We were told to expect a decision 'within days' as to Finland applying for membership in NATO, triggering a threatening response from the Kremlin. That estimate proved to be true. This morning, the President and Prime Minister of Finland held a joint news conference where they announced that Finland’s formal application to join the alliance will be submitted this week following a vote in Parliament that is being described as 'a formality.'"

BUT WITH CONDITIONS.

2. "NATO: Turkey outlines demands on Finland and Sweden membership"

From Deutsche Welle ^ "German Voice" 5/15/2022. Again the tip from Freeper.

"Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Sunday outlined demands for Finland and Sweden which seek membership in NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Speaking with Turkish reporters after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin, he said that Sweden and Finland must stop supporting terrorists in their countries, provide clear security guarantees and lift export bans on Turkey"

NEW MEMBERSHIP IN NATO IS SUBJECT TO UNANIMOUS VOTE OF ALL CONSTITUENT MEMBERS? THIS I WAS NOT AWARE OF.

coolbert.






Fifteen.

This is coolbert:

From the Zubu boys without a whole lot of elaboration on my part.

WHY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION IN THE UKRAINE IS APPARENTLY FAILING!

I neither say yea or nay. I'm just not saying. You the devoted readers to the blog must draw your conclusions.

May 16, 2022.

"15 Explanations For The Slow But Steady Pace Of Russia’s Special Military Operation"

"15 Explanations For The Slow But Steady Pace Of Russia’s Special Military Operation"

"The present piece will attempt to provide some cogent explanations for helping everyone better understand the evolving military-strategic dynamics at play that are responsible for this."

"Observers across the world are debating the reasons why Russia’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine is still raging despite over 80 days of fighting. Critics and supporters of that Eurasian Great Power alike largely seemed in agreement that the Kremlin would crush Kiev within a few days, if not a couple weeks at the absolute most."

Merely with regard to item # 1 on the list:

1. "Russia Likely Made A Last-Minute Decision To Launch The Campaign"

"There should be no doubt that the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) planned in advance for multiple scenarios including the possibility of intervening in Ukraine, but it might very well have been that it wasn’t until the last minute that President Putin decided to launch the campaign after exhausting all diplomatic options for averting it, which he might have sincerely believed could have succeeded."

Like I said, devoted readers to the blog must read the entire article and reach their own determination. Expect debate to continue for decades to come. 

coolbert.





Mongoose.


This is coolbert:

Think Donets/Dneiper/Bug/Dneister/Danube delta.

Riverine warfare, the Ukraine Conflict? Who would have thought it?

Courtesy here Commander Salamander.

"Who is Helping Ukraine Build the Riverine Force They Need?"

Naval military units, small boat combat operations inland, often following major rivers upstream frOm the sea or an ocean. Riverine. Here an aspect of the Ukraine Conflict, a SIDESHOW but perhaps other than that in some regard. The Russians are using riverine, the Ukrainian are too. May 16, 2022.

[....]

"The Russians are making better use of the riverine environment"

"Russian patrol boats are racing up the Dnieper River to conduct covert operations deep behind enemy lines, a Ukrainian think tank has said."

"Boats that can reach Kyiv have been seen speeding upstream from the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, the Centre for Defence Studies (CDS) said."

"The Dnieper is the fourth longest river in Europe, measuring 13 miles [twenty-one kilometers] wide at points, and potentially allowing Russian boats to travel deep into Ukrainian-held territory undetected. Defense experts said Russian special forces could be using the missions to mark out targets for air strikes and artillery fire in cities such as Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and the Ukrainian capital itself."

"The Mangust-class patrol boat, also known as Project 12150, is a Russian Coast Guard vessel. The patrol craft is designed to operate in coastal areas, ports, and other littoral areas, to perform missions like protection of territorial maritime borders, law enforcement, other defense missions, search and rescue, protection of fisheries, and enforcing rules of navigation."

RUSSIAN NAVAL COMMANDO UNITS "FROGMEN" COMBAT SWIMMERS SABOTEURS THEIR MISSION INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, PRESUMABLY ALSO MARKING TARGETS FOR PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS STRIKES.

coolbert.





Startling?

This is coolbert:

Consider this DEBKAfile headline to be both startling and somewhat misleading.

"Iranian cruise missile sent to Hizballah could carry nuclear warhead. Sea blockade planned for Israel"

 May 16, 2022.

"Iran has furnished the Lebanese Hizballah terrorist group with a selection of cruise missiles, including the Kh-55, which is potentially capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. This weapon has a range of 3,000km. This report came from Western intelligence sources on Monday, May 16"

"The Kh-55 was developed by the Soviet Union in the 1970s as an air-launched cruise missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. The Iranian conversion [Soumar?] can be launched from land or from a naval vessel."

"While building up a stock of precision-guided surface missiles, Iran’s Lebanese proxy has also, with the help of Iran and Syria, been quietly accumulating a pile of marine cruise missiles, capable of posting a major threat to the Israeli Navy. Its purpose is to clamp a sea blockade on Israel in a war."

A SEA BLOCKADE OF ISRAEL DURING A TIME OF WAR. NOT AN IMMINENT AND UNILATERAL BLOCKADE AS IN THE WORKS.

Hezbollah [best light infantry in the world] an Iranian proxy and not a nation-state actor also possessing with rocket artillery an amount of conventional firepower that cannot even can be matched by medium-sized military powers as Great Britain or France.

AND now cruise missiles that have a capability to carry a nuclear warhead!

coolbert.






SIW.


This is coolbert:

SIW = Self-inflicted Wound.

From the "Daily Beast" the original story by Reuters. "Daily Beast" entry by Allison Quinn 15 May.

Russian soldiers the Ukraine Conflict maiming themselves as to be unfit for combat.

"‘Let Someone Whack You’: Russian Troops Are Now Deliberately Wounding Themselves to Get Out of Putin’s War"

"Russian troops have apparently become so demoralized in Ukraine that they have been concocting ways to injure themselves."

"Nearly 90 days into Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, Russian troops have apparently become so demoralized and desperate to quit they’ve begun deliberately injuring themselves."

[....]

"A man identified as a Russian soldier in an air assault brigade based in Ukraine’s Kherson region can be heard venting his frustrations to his mother and explaining why he wants to abandon the fight."

The self-inflicted wound [SIW] a practice hardly confined to the Ukraine Conflict. During the Great War [WW1[ British troops referring to the "blighty wound". Often a SIW of whatever sort not life threatening but allowing a wounded man to avoid future combat.

"Faced with the prospect of being killed or permanently disabled, soldiers sometimes hoped that they would receive what was known as a blighty wound, and be sent back home. There were some cases where soldiers shot themselves in an attempt to end their time on the frontline. Self-inflicted wounds (SIW) was a capital offence and if discovered, a man found guilty of this faced execution by firing-squad. A total of 3,894 men in the British Army were convicted of SIW. None of these men were executed but they all served periods in prison."

Devoted readers to the blog are encouraged to read the linked article spartacus-education.com.

Combat medics and doctors administering to such wounds often quite good at spotting injuries SIW.

coolbert.






Tuesday, May 10, 2022

One-third.

This is coolbert:

Yet one more instance of force majeure as a result of the Ukraine Conflict.

Natural gas flow vital to existence in the European Union to be cut by one-third.

Thanks to the Russian Internet media outlet Russian Times [RT].

"Ukraine turns off Europe-bound gas"

"Kiev cites 'force majeure' to halt a third of Russian transited gas flow to Europe, while Gazprom says there have been no issues that would justify the move"

"Russian gas conglomerate Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or any obstacles to continued transit of gas through a junction in Lugansk Region, the company said on Tuesday, after Ukraine’s operator OGTSU announced it would halt further deliveries starting May 11, due to the presence of 'Russian occupiers.'"

"Gas Transit Services of Ukraine (OGTSU) declared force majeure on Tuesday, saying that it was impossible to continue the transit of gas through a connection point and compressor station located in the Lugansk area. As OGTSU personnel 'cannot carry out operational and technological control' over the Sokhranovka connector point and Novopskov compressor station, the company cannot continue to fulfill its contract obligations, it said." 

"Force majeure . . . is a common clause in contracts which essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as a war, strike, riot, crime, epidemic or sudden legal changes prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract." [thanks to the wiki]

Persons or entities under contract because of the war declaring force majeure releasing them from obligations. Forces beyond control making fulfillment of obligations impossible.

This compressor station too close to the battle area, civilian operating personnel to wary to carry ouot their duties for fear of death? That is what this is?

coolbert.