Thursday, August 18, 2022

Isotrope.

This is coolbert:

“The Navy is being sucked into an operation they should never have been involved in. This is not their terrain – this is Home Office, Coastguard, Border Force terrain,” | Tobias Ellwood.

How the might Royal Navy [RN] has fallen. The "wooden walls" defending the English channel as in the days of yore long gone.

"UK Navy Reportedly To Relinquish Migrant Crisis Charge to Border Patrol as Crossings Double"

From sputniknews.com | Yesterday (Updated: Yesterday) Aug 16 2022.

"In mid-January, it was announced that the UK military was to be put in charge of stemming the surging numbers of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats, taking over command of the operation from Border Force."

Here is what we are talking about. Stopping these putt-putt rubber dinghy water craft from crossing the English channel. Hardly the Spanish Armada.

"The Royal Navy will be handing operational control of the Channel migrant crisis back to UK Border Force officers"

[....]

"Operation Isotrope - a British military operation to assist the Border Force in responding to the rise in English Channel migrant crossings was first announced in January 2021. On 16 January 2022, it was reported that plans were being drawn up to place the Royal Navy in operational command of counter-migration operations, with the plans implemented in March . . . Royal Navy vessels designated for the role were some of the Batch 1 River class offshore patrol vessels and some smaller Archer class patrol vessels."

A law enforcement matter and not a national defense matter. Not what the RN designed to do and should not do. But nonetheless an indication of how far the RN has declined in the last one-hundred years!

coolbert.





M-81.

This is coolbert:

Yet more from the Internet webzine "Coffee or Die". 

Russian advanced military technology on display. Not so fast comrade!

"RUSSIA’S KILLER ROBOT ‘DOG’ IS MADE IN CHINA, AVAILABLE FOR $2,700 ONLINE"

M-81 Robotic complex Russian.

Story by Matt White August 16, 2022.

"A robot 'dog' carrying a rocket-propelled-grenade launcher was a breakout star of the first day of the Russian ARMY 2022 trade show in Moscow, which is often a showcase for new Russian technology and weapons. But internet sleuths soon found that the 'dog' was a Chinese toy-like model with a battery life of about one hour."


"The star of this year’s show — known as the Military-Technical Forum ARMY 2022 — looked like it might be a combat-ready robot 'dog,' which appeared to share design and mobility with Boston Dynamics robots in use with the New York City Police Department and Air Force security forces."

"The robot, cloaked in black, was filmed walking around the trade floor, looking perhaps a bit more adorable than fearsome, but with a Russian-made RPG-26 rocket-propelled-grenade launcher mounted on its back."

This robot as a fighting machine can easily be entrapped by snares? Any sort of movement forward denied by the simplest of devices. The robot is designed to be remotely controlled or is autonomous Perhaps a combination of both. Possibly the Russian intends only to show what can be done? Off-the-shelf technology and such?

coolbert.






Zack.


This is coolbert:

May this man lead the rest of his life hiding his face from humanity!

The muscle man and his woman both probably need to do the same!

From the Internet webzine "Coffee or Die and thanks to same.

"FLORIDA VETERAN WHO LIED ABOUT COMBAT PTSD NOW BEHIND BARS"

Story by Carl Prine | August 16, 2022. 

"Zachary Ryan Barton, 35, was sentenced on Friday, Aug. 12, 2022, to a year behind bars and three years of supervised release when he exits a federal penitentiary. He pleaded guilty to defrauding the US Department of Veterans Affairs by faking or exaggerating injuries."

"A Florida veteran who faked a limp, wore an adult diaper to his VA appointments, and lied about getting PTSD from combat is going to prison." PTSD = Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.

[....]

Zack must also: "reimburse taxpayers $245,932.52 for the benefits he received from the US Department of Veterans Affairs for his bogus maladies."

Zack did serve in the U.S Army and did see duty in Iraq but DID NOT participate in combat and was not entitled to any payments of PTSD. Zack also faking numerous injuries even all the while engaging in body-building gym work-outs!

Zack his prison sentence rather lenient? The man could have gotten ten years incarceration!

coolbert.





Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Dark Angels.


This is coolbert:

Grumble Russian surface-to-air missile [SAM] once again being used in the ballistic missile ground attack role!

Target an American aid group? Target possibly too Ukrainian grain tycoon?

"EXCLUSIVE: Video shows blast of Russian S-300 missile that hit Mykolaiv home, killing Ukrainian grain tycoon Oleksiy Vadatursky and his wife in a 'targeted assassination'"

FOR MAILONLINE ^ | 16 August 2022 | JOSH BOSWELL the tip from Freeper. Thank you MAIL.

"EXCLUSIVE: Video shows blast of Russian S-300 missile that hit Mykolaiv home, killing Ukrainian grain tycoon Oleksiy Vadatursky and his wife in a 'targeted assassination' and injuring British volunteer fighters at sanatorium 'base' next door Ukrainian grain tycoon Oleksiy Vadatursky, 74, and his wife Rayisa were killed on July 31 after a Russian S-300 missile blasted into their bedroom at their riverside mansion in the south Ukraine town of Mykolaiv Members of foreign military volunteer group, the Dark Angels, who were camped out in an old sanatorium next door, were also injured during the attack" 

Grumble a SAM that can be used in the surface to surface ballistic missile role. This attack I can reasonably infer was aimed at the American Dark Angel foreign group allied with the Ukrainian cause. Dark Angel see their web site the stated mission two-fold. A quasi-military and humanitarian. The death of the Ukrainian grain "tycoon" was incidental to the attack? Collateral damage as they say but probably pleasing to the Russian nonetheless.

coolbert.





Minuteman III.


This is coolbert:

OH, thank GOD! The bird finally flew! Postponed flight of an American Minuteman III missile UNARMED finally taking place. Precautions intended to show good will and not to alarm the Chinese I guess successful.

"Air Force tests ICBM after delay over tensions with China"

From "The Hill" via msn ^ | 8/16/2022 | Ellen Mitchell tip from Freeper.

"The Air Force on Tuesday said it had successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) nearly two weeks after postponing the launch amid increased tensions with China over Taiwan. The unarmed Minuteman III, which is capable of holding a nuclear payload, was launched at 12:49 a.m. Pacific Time from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., with its reentry vehicle landing roughly 4,200 miles away near the Marshall Islands"

I hardly think for a moment the Chinese on this occasion or the Russians in the previous instance were all that worried by a routine missile test announced [?] in advance. Routine as having been the case three-hundred times previously. Quality assurance tests of the missiles and launch crews.

Anyhow, test was completed and successful. Tensions were alleviated with prudence?

coolbert.





Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Depot.

This is coolbert:

Even as we speak this is occurring?

Crimea once more RED! An attack of stupendous proportions another Russian ammunition depot goes sky-high literally so.

More Russian humiliation and shame?

From https://english.nv.ua/ Ukrainian controlled [?] media and thanks to same.

"Russian military unit, ammo depot on fire after blasts in occupied Crimea"

16 August.

"A Russian military unit is on fire in the village of Azovske outside the town of Dzhankoy in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea, Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, Refat Chubarov, said in a Facebook post on Aug. 16."

“It is reported from the temporarily occupied Crimea: accurate firepower (was directed) on the military unit of the orcs (Russians) in the village of Qalay (now Azovske) of the Dzhankoy district,” [Chubarov]

"Chubarov added that an ammunition depot had been hit, and 'the sounds of the explosions are spreading far across the steppe.'”

ORCS as how the Ukrainian refers to the Russian. Orc = a fictional humanoid monster like a goblin.

As with the recent attack on the Russian naval aviation airfield Crimea a lot of speculation is going to be made who/what/where/when/why/how this attack transpired and with what means.

coolbert.





Final.

This is coolbert:

“You have let down our country and our Red Army. You have the nerve not to manufacture Il-2s until now. Our Red Army now needs Il-2 aircraft like the air it breathes, like the bread it eats. (This plant) now produces one Il-2 a day….It is a mockery of the Red Army….I ask you not to try the government’s patience, and demand that you manufacture more Il-2s. This is my final warning. Stalin.” 

As it is in 2022 so it was during the days of Joseph Stalin and World War Two?

From the Internet web site Strategy Page and thanks to same.

"Russia: Cornered And Coerced"

First paragraph of article as copied in entirety without alteration: [underlines courtesy your friendly blogger.]

"August 16, 2022: President-for-Life Vladimir Putin is trying to enforce a law he had had enacted a month ago that allows the government to impose wartime conditions on military suppliers who are not fulfilling their contracts. Sanctions on Russia from its invasion of Ukraine have cut off supplies of key components. The new law is vague on what the government can do other than order changes to working conditions and how managers operate. These are Soviet-era rules. Putin is thinking World War II while the rest of the world sees the 1980s."

Final warning as during WW2 meaning the Gulag or downright immediate execution!

Vlad between the rock and hard spot in not being willing to declare a general mobilization. Those suppliers and managers they also!

coolbert.






Survivability.

This is coolbert:

From the blog of the Dupuy Institute blog "Mystics & Statistics" and thanks to same.

As was determined in 1976. Vulnerability of self-propelled artillery as compared to the towed variety.

A 1976 study to a large extent [?] based on data from the Arab-Israeli war of 1973?


Devoted readers to the blog are invited to read the entire article. A hard read I might suppose for anyone not so conversant in military tactics/weapons/techniques.

Those conclusions and observations of the study paragraph as extracted in entirety:

"Most of the artillery weapons in World War II were towed weapons. By the time the United States had committed small but significant numbers of self-propelled artillery pieces in Europe, German air and artillery counter-battery retaliatory capabilities had been significantly reduced. In the Korean and Vietnam wars, although most American artillery was self-propelled, the enemy had little counter-artillery capability either in the air or in artillery weapons and counter-battery techniques. It is evident from vulnerability testing of current Army self-propelled weapons, that these weapons–while offering much more protection to cannoneers and providing tremendous advantages in mobility–are much more vulnerable to hostile action than are towed weapons, and that they are much more subject to mechanical breakdowns involving either the weapons mountings or the propulsion elements. Thus there cannot be a direct relationship between aggregated World War II data, or even aggregated Korean war or October War data, and current or future artillery configurations. On the other hand, the body of data from the October war where artillery was self-propelled is too small and too specialized by environmental and operational circumstances to serve alone as a paradigm of artillery vulnerability."

My intuitive response is that towed artillery if it can OUTRANGE the adversary just fine. OUTRANGE as meaning relatively secure from adversary counter-battery fire from either tube artillery or rocket artillery.

Data too from the 1976 study admittedly not so large to be able to make very reasonable inferences that are unquestionable? Weapons, tactics, methods and techniques of war and war-making stuff greatly changed during that now almost fifty year period since the end of the 1973 war!

coolbert.






Monday, August 15, 2022

Bygone.

This is coolbert:

"You can't say civilization don't advance... in every war they kill you in a new way." - Will Rogers.

Out with the old, in with the new. Ukraine style.

"4 Weapons the War in Ukraine Is Proving Obsolete"

Thanks to "Popular Mechanics" | Kyle Mizokami August 11, 2022. Tip from yahoo.com.

* "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth month, is seeing new technologies replace old ones on the battlefield."

* "Trenches, howitzers, and even aircraft and tanks are facing serious challenges as the Russian and Ukrainian armies battle it out with one another."

* "Some weapons are clearly obsolete, while others, like tanks, will need to innovate to survive."

From a comment to the article:

* A remark by charles:

"In my 28 year career in the US Air Force, there was a tremendous amount of change. The author has many good points and it’s implicit that all technology and techniques can be badly employed by a poorly trained military. Russia has a poorly trained, poorly led military that would be defeated by a poorly equipped army that was well trained."

YES indeed. A poorly-trained, badly-led and uninspired military possessing even the latest technology is probably inferior to a well-trained, well-led and inspired foe not possessing the latest technology. Not necessarily the gun itself but more the man behind the gun. This is intuitively obvious?

Towed howitzers are out? It would make sense to those without the military background that a self-propelled weapon such as the German Panzerhautize 2000 would be more agile, able to move about quicker, provide a degree of protection to the gun crew and the gun itself. This is a topic not yet settled? I am not sure.

coolbert.





Sunday, August 14, 2022

Pyrrhic.


This is coolbert:

"Pyrrhic victory: noun | a victory that is not worth winning because the winner has lost so much in winning it"

China/USA/Taiwan! War! War-gamers at work.

"War gamers predict America and Taiwan could beat China, but..."

From hotair.com the story by JAZZ SHAW Aug 13, 2022. Original story Bloomberg?

 "I suppose this is a fairly smart thing to do after Nancy Pelosi threw a rock through the Chinese hornet’s nest. Dozens of military and intelligence officials are huddled in a room in Washington playing a series of hundreds of different war game scenarios. They are trying to estimate what will happen if China invades Taiwan and the United States steps in militarily to defend the island nation. The results thus far are something of a 'good news, bad news' prediction. In nearly every scenario they have tested thus far, our combined forces would eventually repel the Chinese invasion leaving Taiwan under the control of the current government. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the cost of fighting that war would be horrendous and it would almost certainly end up looking like a pyrrhic victory." (Bloomberg)

I highly recommend without qualification or reservation this article. Read the whole thing.

Pay close attention to the assumptions made.

Cost of such a war to include [and not mentioned] a possible total collapse of the WORLD ECONOMY as a result. Recall that a very significant percentage of micro-electronic semi-conductor integrated circuits absolutely essential for current high-technology products manufactured in Taiwan.

OTHER authorities hardly I think less reputable and knowledgeable with regard to a USA/China/Taiwan war suggest a less than FAVORABLE conclusion to such a war perhaps much to the detriment of the USA.

See previous blog entries as apropos to the topic:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/07/invasion-roc.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/11/invasion-roc-ii.html

coolbert.




Saturday, August 13, 2022

Saky.

This is coolbert:

Follow-up to the original blog entry the damage done the Russian Crimean military airfield Saki. [evidently various spellings of Saki exist]

Strictly with regard to cost of those military warplanes either destroyed or damaged.

"Crimea explosions: Forbes calculates cost of destroyed Russian aircraft"

Depending on who is doing the counting and whatever are the assumptions, the value of those Russian warplanes Saky totally destroyed or damaged and no longer fly-able immense!

Tip from yahoo.com | Source: Forbes Ukraine | further thanks to Ukrainska Pravda.

12 AUGUST 2022.

"The aircraft destroyed in the explosions at the Saky airfield near Novofedorivka, in Russian-occupied Crimea, has cost Russia over $300 million."

"Details: Forbes Ukraine reports that prior to explosions, the total cost of the aircraft stationed at the Saky airfield amounted to approximately $650-800 million."

"Forbes estimates that the costs of each of the Russian military aircraft might be as follows: Su-30SM – $50 million; Su-24MR – $6 million; Il-76 – $86 million. Forbes adds that there might be circumstances that might significantly affect those numbers."

"Given that a total of nine aircraft were destroyed at the Saky airfield, and assuming that all of the destroyed aircraft were the cheaper Su-24MR jets, Russia’s total losses would amount to $55 million. If, however, the destroyed jets were all Su-30SM, its losses could reach $450 million."

Whatever way you count and estimate, a tidy sum! Those aircraft neither cheap or easily replaceable. And also whatever the source and cause of the detonations a super-duper and tremendous loss of face for the Russian.

coolbert.





Friday, August 12, 2022

Intensify.

This is coolbert:

From the Internet web site "South Front". An Internet web site admittedly so most favorable to the Russian cause during the Ukraine Conflict.

Once more the Ukrainian blames the Russian and the Russian blames the Ukrainian. The truth is somewhere in between?


 Dated 12.08.2022 | August 8, 2022.

"Unable to launch any kind of counteroffensive, the Kiev regime has switched to a strategy of nuclear terror. Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have significantly intensified attacks on nuclear power plants and strategic civilian facilities in the Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions, as well as on the territory of Russia."

[....]

"Ukrainian forces are targeting the power lines and cooling systems in order to provoke an emergency shutdown and damage the power lines. In this case, the whole of Ukraine would suffer electricity shortages. Shutdown of the plant is a trump card in Russia’s hands."


 Atomic power plant [six reactors with storage facility for spent nuclear fuel] Zaporizhzhya. Largest atomic plant in all of Europe.

One more time and it cannot be stressed enough that an accident of a sort greatly feared that will result in an apocalyptic release of radioactivity into the environment that perhaps will great exceed the Chernobyl calamity, almost a doomsday scenario!

As I often say, hold onto your hats! Scared? Maybe you should be?

coolbert.





Archaeology?

This is coolbert:

"War ... huh ... yeah What is it good for?" - Edwin Starr.

Archaeology?

"When Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Egypt in 1798, however, it was more than just a military enterprise, for he brought along one-hundred sixty 'Savants.'”

"savant: - - 1: a person of learning especially : one with detailed knowledge in some specialized field (as of science or literature)"

DISCOVERY OF THE ROSETTA STONE??

1. "Write like an Egyptian"

A book review as written by John Steele Gordon.

"It was the greatest puzzle in the world. For three thousand years the ancient Egyptians covered the walls and ceilings of their temples and tombs with a form of writing known as hieroglyphs. More, the bone-dry climate of Egypt had preserved vast quantities of this hieroglyphic text written on papyrus."

NONE of the ancient Egyptian writing could be read prior to the Napoleonic military expedition to Egypt. French troops doing routine military excavation for fortifications accidentally uncovering the Rosetta Stone. That relic providing the key that allowed savants such Champollion to decipher the aged and venerable texts.

2. Jean-Luc Carbucci. The Archaeologist.

"In addition to being a grand military chief, Général Carbuccia . . . was an archaeology enthusiast. Under his orders, his regiment, the 2nd Foreign Regiment [FFL] commenced the various campaign operations of digging, clearing, excavating, recovering, protecting and preserving the Ancient Roman City of Lambaesis. This Ancient City was the military Capital of Roman Numidia. Colonel Carbuccia reconstituted accordingly in recovery the entire geography of the Ancient Roman Province."

Excavations by the French Foreign Legion while doing colonial duty uncovering Roman ruins North Africa. Relics as discovered allowing a reconstruction of ancient Roman life as at the time poorly understood if that! Lots of hard work maintaining fitness for combat, troops not soft and weak from lack of activity!

Further in the modern context we have the Ukraine Conflict.

3. "Ukrainian Soldiers Discover Archaeological Treasures While Digging Defenses in Port City Odessa"

From ARTnews ^ | May 16, 2022 | article by Tessa Solomon the tip from Freeper.

"Ukrainian soldiers discovered a trove of artifacts while digging ditches in anticipation of a Russian strike in the port city Odessa, the Ukrainian military announced last week. Members of the Ukrainian 126th Territorial Defense unearthed amphorae, or ancient containers used to store and transport liquid and dry goods, according to Heritage Daily, which first reported the news"

Odessa a site of settlement from the Classical Greek period. A trading post ancient and as you can well imagine artifacts just waiting to be discovered. As has been now!

For those of you who are pedantic the spelling of Odessa is correct if using the Russian language. Odesa as correct in the Ukrainian language.

coolbert.






Thursday, August 11, 2022

Saki.

This is coolbert:

More humiliation and egg-on-face for the Russian, the Ukraine Conflict!

"have egg on your face: If you have egg on your face, you look stupid because of something that you have done. Ashamed and embarrassed"

"UKRAINE WAR: Russia's Saki Air Base Blew Up and No One Knows How"

From pjedia.com BY STEPHEN GREEN AUG 11, 2022. 

Russian naval aviation airbase Crimea devastated. Warplanes on the ground destroyed. Cause of so much destruction unclear! Anywhere from nine to thirteen high-performance aircraft either completely gone or partially damaged.

"Russia’s Saki Air Base, safely tucked away 120 miles [about one-hundred ninety miles] or more behind the front lines, lost as many as 10 warplanes and various buildings in a series of explosions on Tuesday — but how it happened remains a mystery."

Already satellite overhead images of the airbase available for the perusal of the general public. Isn't just a wonderment that such technology so readily AVAILBLE to the average citizen. What was once only in the purview of a few persons in the highest echelons of the military and civilian command structure can now be seen more or less in real time by just about EVERYONE. Click on all images to see an enlarged view.

Revetment area Saki airbase with parked warplanes. Before the attack.

Same area AFTER the attack. Lots of scorching readily seen.

Saki Russian naval aviation airbase more less in entirety. 

So, what caused this catastrophe? Accidental detonation of stored munitions a strong possible. As it was at Bien Hoa airbase during the Second Indo-China war. Numbers of USAF aircraft fueled, armed, awaiting take-off destroyed while on the ground from a simple mishap. That sort of stuff does happen.

Tony at planesand stuff.wordpress.com suggests strongly a missile attack. Also a ground attack by Ukrainian special operations ranger/commando unit feasible and doable. A Pebble Island type mission as was during the Falkland Islands War.

Whatever the case the Russian has taken a big hit. As with the Moskva, so too with Saki.

coolbert.







Wednesday, August 10, 2022

Laxity.

This is coolbert:

Attack Krim! Russian airbase Crimea under attack. Damage done by assailants the identify of which has not been determined.

1. "Russian media blame 'saboteurs' for huge explosions in Putin-annexed Crimea which left one dead and five injured"

From the British tabloid "MAILONLINE" ^ | 9 August 2022 | TOM PYMAN the tip from Freeper.

"Eyewitnesses reported as many as 15 distinct explosions in Novofedorivka, Crimea, followed by a larger blast The explosions rocked a Russian held military airbase home to a variety of fighter jets and freight aircraft Airbase is located 130 miles [200 kilometers] from nearest Ukrainian-held region and Ukraine has not accepted responsibility"

2. "Daring Ukrainian special forces raid is revealed as cause 'behind explosion at Russian airbase in Crimea' as Zelensky vows to liberate the annexed peninsula while Russians FLEE in huge traffic jams"

By DAVID AVERRE and TOM PYMAN FOR MAILONLINE the tip from Freeper 10 August 2022.

[....]

"Ukraine's special forces were responsible [as alleged] for a series of deadly explosions which destroyed parts of a crucial Russian airbase in Crimea yesterday, killing one and injuring 14 according to a Ukrainian government official."

"Up to ten Russian aircraft were destroyed in the attack, the Ukrainian air force said, which an anonymous official told the Washington Post had been carried out by special forces – despite claims yesterday that long-range missiles could have been used."

Damage as done by: * Accidental detonation of stored munitions? * Saboteurs? * Missile strike? * Ranger/commando/Ukrainian special forces? * Drone attack?

Airbases far from the front lines of ground combat during wartime conditions often thought to be beyond danger with protective measures applied in a rather lax manner.

coolbert.





Farmer.

This is coolbert:

Farmer = NATO code name for MiG-19.

The Russians do it. The Chinese do it too.

Used and obsolete warplanes converted to drones. Mission apparently SEAD. Suppression Enemy Air Defense.

Chinese J-16 warplane given new life.

"China shows off drones recycled from Soviet-era fighter jets"

Article from defensenews.com By Mike Yeo Oct 20, 2021.

"MELBOURNE, Australia – China has for the first time showed off retired 1950s era fighter jets that have been converted to unmanned drones, with satellite photos of two of its east coast bases near Taiwan showing a large number of the jets on site."

"The People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command published the photos of two Shenyang J-6s on its Weibo social media account during a post about the ceremony marking the start of the training cycle for the second half of 2021 for a training brigade."

[....]

"The J-6 is a Chinese copy of the Soviet Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-19 interceptor, whose manned version was officially retired from PLAAF service in 2010. By that time, the type was regarded as obsolete by all measures, with the basic J-6 not even equipped with a radar."

[....]

"Reports emerged from 2013 that China had converted the type into unmanned aircraft, for use either as a decoy to overwhelm adversary air defenses by their sheer numbers or as a rudimentary unmanned combat aircraft."

Russians in the current Ukraine Conflict already using aged, expendible and rather used An-2 single-engine transport aircraft as drones to divert Ukrainian air defenses.

Read that wiki entry the SEAD mission. Called "Wild Weasel" in the American context. Go volunteer if you are game. Better to have the robot do the same?

coolbert.






UXB Po.

This is coolbert:

"Fishermen found the bomb on the bank of the River Po due to a decrease in water levels caused by drought," Colonel Marco Nasi 


Thanks to the Internet web site zerohedge.com the article BY TYLER DURDEN | MONDAY, AUG 08, 2022.

"The Italian Army detonated a World War II bomb uncovered by fishermen on the drought-stricken Po River."

"Army specialists defused the 240 kg (530 pounds) U.S.-manufactured bomb found on Po's river bank near the northern village of Borgo Virgilio, close to the city of Mantua, last week.


Moving an unexploded bomb [UXB] around in that fashion is bad form? Normally the bomb would be left where it was found and blown-to-bits by "controlled explosion" in situ?

See recent previous blog entry a video of a World War Two "Tallboy" bomb detonation many decades after being dropped on a German target.

coolbert.






Tuesday, August 9, 2022

Crumble.

This is coolbert:

 “the enemy ran out of bullets before we ran out of men”.

Strictly here I address the Russian army suffering a BREAKDOWN from excessive casualties the Ukraine Conflict.

Can it be determined from historical example to some degree of accuracy if this will occur and when?

"As Many as 80,000 Russian Forces Killed, Wounded in Ukraine: Pentagon"

From usnews.com the story by Paul D. Shinkman | Aug. 8, 2022.

"The damning assessment comes as the Defense Department hopes new shipments of military supplies will break the burgeoning stalemate as Ukraine, too, faces high casualties."

The ETERNAL RUSSIAN STEAMROLLER in action as it  has been, is now, always will be?

Profligate use of manpower almost immune to manpower loss?

A steamroller however as in World War One not so totally immune to excessive casualties. There WAS a BREAKDOWN point for the Russian Imperial Army.

NOR was any army in the conflict for that matter immune to BREAKDOWN! All the major combatants during the conflict had their armies at one time or another suffered BREAKDOWN.

It can even be predicted with some degree of accuracy from the experience of World War One when BREAKDOWN will occur?

From Sir John Keegan "The face of Battle":

"Counting the fighting infantry of a division at 10,000, and the number of British, French, Italian an Russian divisions engaged against the central powers at 60, 110, 45, and 120, we get figures of 600,000, 1,100,000, 450,000 and 1,200,000 which are more or less the totals of deaths [KIA] suffered by each combatant power at the moment its army underwent collapse or crisis."

Breakdown or crisis occurring among the various combatants during the latter period of the Great War when the number of KIA at the point of collapse about equal to the number of troops remaining in the field during sustained combat operations a prolonged conflict.

Making an assumption here that 2/5th of those 80,000 Russian casualties killed-in-action unto this point that amounts to about 23,000 Russian KIA. [a 250:100 wounded to killed ratio]

That invading Russian force the Ukraine Conflict 24 February about 120,000 troops. Assuming that current Russian contingent Ukraine about 100,000 soldiers we are hardly close to the point where a BREAKDOWN will occur.

The historical example of WW1 is hardly valid it can be argued. Anyone can suggest a better way of determining BREAKING point?

coolbert.




ARM II.

This is coolbert:

Hot off the presses. From the Internet web site favorably disposed to the Russian "South Front". Anti-radiation missiles the Ukraine Conflict once more.

The discovery and apparent use of American-made anti-radiation missiles in Ukraine fast becoming an international incident. This might be a casus belli for an escalation of the war? Sort of a Gulf of Tonkin II as was during the Second Indo-China war.

The perception of direct American/NATO participation in the Ukraine Conflict raising the ire of the Russian markedly. "USA you are killing our boys!"

"REMAINS OF MISSILE THAT COULD ONLY BE LAUNCHED BY NATO JETS FOUND BY RUSSIAN FORCES IN UKRAINE"

"Having Russian troops directly targeted by NATO forces is pushing us to the brink of a world-ending conflict."

Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst | 08.08.2022.

"Early last week, on August 2, the Russian Defense Ministry unequivocally accused the United States of being directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine. The statement followed remarks by a Kiev regime official who gave details of the Neo-Nazi junta’s direct cooperation with the US before the Kiev regime forces would launch attacks with NATO-provided HIMARS MLRS."

HIMARS and M777 howitzer + targeting data!

[....]

"Although US officials have been denying direct involvement in Ukraine, claiming that it’s supposedly limited to intelligence sharing and the so-called 'lethal aid', new disturbing reports have appeared, indicating that the US and NATO aren’t only providing their vast ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) capabilities to the Kiev regime, but they might be involved in the fighting as directly as they could possibly be. Multiple reports have surfaced that the remains of a US-made AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti-radiation Missile) have been found by Russian forces. AGM-88 is a tactical air-launched anti-radiation missile designed to home in on transmissions coming from air defense radar systems."

HARM as alleged by the Russian can only be launched from a warplane NOT in the current Ukrainian inventory!

From some comments to the article:

* HB_Norica |17 hours ago:

Reply to  Michel LeBlanc

"Air launched missiles rely on the aircraft carrying it for much of it’s kinetic energy through the speed of the aircraft and the altitude the weapon is dropped from. I would suspect that any ground based launched air to ground missile would be seriously limited in range and maneuverability."

"The most likely answer some NATO country like Poland has given Ukraine some Soviet era aircraft and unknown to the world the USA had them rigged up to fire HARM’s when east bloc nations joined NATO. They would be cheap disposable aircraft (as far as the Americans are concerned) used to go after air defesce radars and soak up a few SAM missiles before being killed."

* Michel LeBlanc | 22 hours ago: 

"It could be ground based versions developed by the Israelis. They're in it too."

HARM as launched ONLY from a NATO warplane NOT necessary so. See various URL's that describe a  ground-launch mode of operation:

https://tinyurl.com/yckz7dtf

https://tinyurl.com/z445a3hs

https://tinyurl.com/2y9b3y8x

coolbert.



Oreille.

This is coolbert.

Submarines? The land-locked USA state of Idaho? Idaho?

From jalopnik.com the article by Tyler Rogoway 6/14/14.


"The US Navy's submarine bases are some of the most high-security installations in the world, but one of their most important and shadowy submarine outposts is not located along the ocean, but rather in a lake in landlocked Idaho."

"The Navy's Acoustic Research Detachment (ARD) at Bayview, Idaho, which is some 375 miles from the ocean, is where new submarine and surface ship shapes and subsystems are tested in a sub-scale environment that closely mimics the ocean. In other words, ARD Bayview is the Navy's lower-key subsurface Area 51, and massive Lake Pend Oreille is a water based, smaller, and more outsider friendly Nellis Range Complex."

"The lake's depth (it's deeper than Loch Ness at about 1150 feet/400 meters) , large size, clear water and quiet conditions provided by steep tree-lined shores and a flat muddy bottom, along with a constant chilly temperature under 100 feet, are all key factors that have made it such an attractive testing location for the US Navy since WWII. Also, the lake stays remarkably calm for its size, allowing for fantastic testing conditions."

Being away from the coastline [Atlantic and Pacific both] too negates any possibility of submarines of a foreign power hostile to the USA doing espionage while testing in progress.

See also the role of the Farragut naval training facility WW2 located at Lake Pend Oreille. Basic "boot" training for raw recruits yeoman naval service: "second-largest training center in the world". Everyone involved did themselves proud. The tradition continues. And so far from the ocean also!

coolbert.







War Games.

This is coolbert:

More games the military dimension. 

International Army Games. Russia. 2022.

"China Sends Tanks, Troops to Russia Ahead of Moscow’s War Games"

From breitbart.com the story by GABRIELLE REYES 26 Jul 2022.

"China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently sent a delegation of military tanks and troops from the Chinese city of Manzhouli, Inner Mongolia, to the Russian city of Zabaikalsk in preparation for Beijing’s participation in Moscow’s International Army Games on August 13, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Tuesday."

[....]

"Russia’s International Army Games are scheduled to take place from August 13 to August 27 across 12 countries. This year’s host nations include Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and India. Russia’s Ministry of Defense has organized the competition annually since 2015, which is also when China began participating in the event."

More than anything else, at such a critical time in history, while a real-live shooting war going on in their own backyard the Russian wants to play nice with other nations in such a sporting event I do find to be strange. Nations however almost all as listed to a degree dominated by or aligned with the Russian.

Let the games begin and only the host will care.

coolbert.





Monday, August 8, 2022

Escorted.

This is coolbert:

It is not only I that had an apprehensiveness as to the visit of USA Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan.

From the Internet web site theaviationist.com the article by STEFANO D'URSO August 6, 2022.

"Here’s A Handy Recap Of What Has Happened (And Is Currently Happening) Around Taiwan"

"China surrounded Taiwan with massive military exercises after the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi."

"Since the historic visit of the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan on August 3, 2022, the relations between the United States, China and Taiwan quickly started deteriorating. In fact, as retaliation, China inflicted heavy import/export trade restrictions on Taiwan, as well as sanctioning Pelosi and suspending/cancelling cooperation with the US on multiple topics. In addition to all of this, China started multiple [military] exercises that completely surrounded the territory of Taiwan."

"China strongly opposed the visit, even threatening to take action against Pelosi’s aircraft before she landed in Taipei. The aircraft was reportedly escorted by eight Taiwanese Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while unconfirmed sources claim that F-15Cs from Kadena Air Base (Japan) and F/A-18 from the USS Ronald Reagan were also in the area as a precaution following the Chinese threats."

That circuitous and roundabout flight path of SPAR19 from Malaysia to Taiwan circumventing the South China sea was not taken without good reason. Rest assured some persons of power were biting their nails with nervousness during the entire episode.

See additionally the many tweets from a multiplicity of sources as embedded in the D'URSO article. Outstanding!

coolbert.





Spent.

This is coolbert:

Serious! Very Serious! Claims and counter-claims! The Russians did it! The Ukrainian did it! Who is to blame?

"Rockets strike near spent-fuel storage at an occupied nuclear site. Ukraine and Russia blame each other."

Thanks to the NY Times ^ | August 7, 2022 the tip from Freeper.

"Ukraine accused Russian forces on Sunday of firing rockets that landed on the grounds of a nuclear power plant that Russia has seized in the south of the country, further raising the risk of an accident at a complex where the United Nations’ nuclear agency has said that the principles of nuclear safety have been violated. A pro-Russian regional official blamed Ukrainian forces for the attack."

This is the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant? Largest atomic power plant in all of Europe. Six working reactors! With adjacent nuclear fuel rod storage facility.

"The rockets fired Saturday evening landed near a dry spent fuel storage facility, where 174 casks are stored, each containing 24 assemblies of spent nuclear fuel, according to Enerhoatom, Ukraine’s nuclear energy company. One person was wounded by shrapnel and many windows were damaged."

NEED I SAY THAT IF ANY OF THOSE "SPENT" FUEL ROD CANISTERS STRUCK BY WEAPONS MUNTIONS THE RELEASE OF TOXIC ATOMIC RADIATION WILL BE STUPENDOUS. A CATASTROPE OF EPIC PROPORTIONS AT LEAST EQUAL TO CHERNOBYL AND PERHAPS EVEN WORSE.

coolbert.





ARM.

This is coolbert:

ARM = Anti-radiation missile. 

From the Internet web site southfront.org 07.08.2022 [August 7 2022].

YES indeed, we can agree this is a surprise!

"US ANTI-RADIATION MISSILE MAKES SURPRISE APPEARANCE IN UKRAINE (PHOTOS)"

"The US has reportedly supplied Kiev Forces with advanced anti-radiation missiles in a bid to weaken air defenses providing cover to the ongoing Russian special military operation in Ukraine."

"On August 7, Russian sources shared photos showing the remains of a US-made AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missile, that was allegedly launched by Kiev forces, near a position of the Russian military in an unspecified part of Ukraine."

Anti-radiation as better defined and understood as anti-radar missile. Used in the SEAD role. Suppression Enemy Air Defense [SEAD].

[....]

The AGM-88 can be launched from several advanced Western fighter jets, none of which are in service with the Ukrainian Air Force. It is possible that Kiev forces have been firing AGM-88 missiles from ground-based launchers.

Air-to-ground anti-radar missile being launched from the ground!

See from these web sites that discussion of the Israeli using ARM from the ground-launch mode:

https://tinyurl.com/yckz7dtf

https://tinyurl.com/z445a3hs

coolbert.




Saucy.

This is coolbert:

WARNING: If you are easily offended by material of a frank, adult, brazen and bold nature, hit ESCAPE now!

The tip from "Blazing Cat Fur" that original story by 

"Love and war: Ukrainian women inspire troops with saucy pictures

Antonia Cundy, Kyiv | August 07 2022 The Sunday Times.

"A woman walks towards the camera, her hips sashaying as she sweeps her hands up from her waist and over her breasts, bending low in front of the lens to fill its view with her cleavage."

In another video, the camera gazes down a man’s bare chest, warm candlelight exaggerating the grooves of his abdominal muscles and a bulge in his trousers.

Such images are uploaded every day to a unique Ukrainian Telegram channel doing its bit for the war effort: while many civilians use Telegram to snitch on Russian troops or raise money for weapons, members of this channel post pictures of themselves for the pleasure of soldiers risking their lives on the front line."

WARNING: Ukrainian soldier and Russian soldier too if you view the Telegram dedicated [?] channel. Oksana, Svetlana and Kateryna may not be your friend. Risque' and suggestive images used to entice may also contain some sort of malware that when inadvertently loaded onto your smart phone becomes a tool that hostile intelligence services can use to spy on you. 

See other previous blog entries with a relevancy to the topic:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/02/alexander.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/03/grindr.html

coolbert.





Sunday, August 7, 2022

Observers.

This is coolbert:

I strongly encourage all devoted readers to the blog to read the entire article. Without reservation or qualification.

"Observations from the Donbas Front Line

Thanks to the Internet web site smallwarsjournal.com the story By Colonel (Retired) Lee Van Arsdale and Daniel Rice 08/05/2022.

AMERICAN MILITARY EXPERTS AND UNDENIABLY SO THEIR APPRECIATIONS THE UKRAINE CONFLICT.

 "There is a certain immediacy to being on the wrong end of artillery fire.  For thousands of Ukrainians, civilians and Soldiers alike, this is a reality they share every day.  For many of them, it will be the last thing they ever share."

"To the American military eye, the first impression of the Ukrainian Army is that it’s more a quasi-uniformed biker gang than an army.  An occasional pony tail, many beards in various stages of maturity, a variety of mixed uniforms, and footwear that ranges from combat boots to flip flops.  However, this impression would be dead wrong.  To an individual, these are totally committed Soldiers.  Life on the front line is anything but easy, but the dedication and love of country is universal.  There is an easy camaraderie, and all tasks are performed with professional efficiency.  From the commanding general to the brigade and battalion commanders, to the front line troops, this is a dedicated, motivated, war hardened army."

At the very end of the article see the curriculum vitae of the two authors. Very impressive.

There appears to be two schools of thought regarding the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian military. Experts such as General Mark Hertling or Van Arsdale and Rice their opinions of the Ukrainian army and their situation rather positive. Experts such as Colonel Macgregor or Scott Ritter their perspective rather less sanguine, more toward negative.

Of these "two schools of thought" the truth is somewhere in between?

coolbert.




PJ Atlantic.

This is coolbert:

Good news story USA military. Bravo all hands Well done! American pararescue jumpers [PJ's] stand tall.

From the Internet webzine "Coffee or Die" the story July 05, 2022  • Hannah Ray Lambert.

"NEAR DEATH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC: PARARESCUEMEN AWARDED MEDALS FOR HIGH-STAKES TAMAR RESCUE"

RESCUE MISSION THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, DEEP WATER!

"The HC-130 King flew low over the Atlantic Ocean under a ceiling of dense clouds. Open water stretched for hundreds of miles, and the sun was sinking over the horizon. In the plane’s cargo bay, a team of New York Air National Guard pararescuemen [PJ's] and combat rescue officers lined up at the rear of the plane as the ramp lowered. Wind roared into the cabin."

"More than a thousand feet below, two crewmen clung to life aboard the Tamar, a Slovenian bulk cargo carrier. Two of their shipmates had already died after an explosion in the ship’s forward storeroom. The two survivors needed immediate medical aid for severe burns."

[....]

"So the PJs did what they do best — they jumped."

Mission successful. Medals awarded and medals well deserved. Devoted readers to the blog I strongly encourage you to read the entire article without reservation or qualification.

PJ as was recently only about one-hundred eighty slots as existing in the active duty air force USA. At any given moment only about two-thirds of those slots which were filled! A rigorous training program with a skill set for the PJ's almost without equal.

At one time too PJ was strictly confined to the enlisted ranks. Such is the prestige for being a qualified PJ that those of the officer class clamored for admission into the program also.

Again, good going all hands!

coolbert.






Dezwaan Jr.

This is coolbert:

The American military man behaving badly. Fragging incident Syria solved? Culprit arrested and charged with various offenses. An EOD man. 

See previous blog entries as applicable here and here.

"UCMJ CHARGES: EOD TECH SET OFF BOMBS ON US BASE IN SYRIA"

UCMJ = Uniform Code of Military Justice. 

Thanks for the story from the Internet webzine "Coffee or Die" August 04, 2022 |  • Matt White.

David W Dezwaan Jr. USAF as charged. Explosive ordnance disposal man [EOD].

"An Air Force explosive ordnance disposal, or EOD, technician was charged with setting off explosives on a base in Syria in a rare case of an American service member being legally accused of trying to kill or harm other Americans in combat."    

"Tech. Sgt. David W. Dezwaan, Jr. was charged Thursday, Aug. 4, with six counts under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, including aggravated assault and dereliction of duty."

"Dezwaan, according to the Air Force, is assigned to Hill Air Force Base in Utah, where he is a noncommissioned officer in charge of an EOD unit.:

[....]

"Dezwaan was arrested in June but not named until Thursday. Prosecutors have not yet named a motive in the event and have not said whether the explosions were intentionally set to simulate a mortar attack."

THIS DEZWAAN IN REAL TROUBLE! I AM SURPRISED HE HAS NOT BEEN CHARGED WITH ATTEMPTED MURDER! NO MOTIVE? MORE TO THIS STORY I AM SURE.

coolbert.




Saturday, August 6, 2022

Delaying.


This is coolbert:

Yet once more this has occurred?

Routine functional test of an American Minuteman III missile delayed. Missile sans warhead  as an exercise of the weapon system and launch crew both.

Previously delay was to assuage the tender feelings of the Russian? This delay to assuage the tender feelings of the Chinese?

Launch and test delayed as a result of the Nancy Pelosi trip to the Far East?

"US Reportedly Delaying Minuteman III Missile Test Amid Taiwan Tensions"

04.08.2022 [Aug. 4, 2022].

From the Russian controlled [?] Internet media Sputnik and thanks to same.

"WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The United States is delaying routine Minuteman III missile test launches to avoid further provoking tensions with China following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s contentious trip to Taiwan, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday."

"The US Air Force postponed the test launch to avoid any misunderstandings with China given recent tensions regarding Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the report said."

"The test, which takes place several times a year to assess the reliability of the US intercontinental ballistic missile systems, was initially planned to occur this week at the Vandenberg Air Force Base in California"

See previous blog entry that Minuteman III launch delayed for the fear of antagonizing the Russian:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/04/misinterpretation.html

coolbert.





Sure.

This is coolbert:

“There are reasonable suggestions of intent, but they can only become reality once the investigative teams come in and check it properly”

Weapons depot Bulgaria goes sky-high. Deliberate sabotage by the "dark forces" of the Russian intelligence services suspected.

1. "Mystery blast at arms depot owned by survivor of 'Russian poisoning'"

From thenationalnews.com the story by Tim Stickings Aug 01, 2022.

"Emilian Gebrev supplied weapons to Ukraine and has faced numerous suspected Russian attacks

"A weapons dealer who survived a suspected Russian poisoning said one of his arms depots was hit by an explosion in Bulgaria, ringing alarm bells because of a history of mysterious attacks on his business."

"Emilian Gebrev, who has a record of supplying arms to Ukraine, said the blast caused an early-morning fire at an ammunition depot on Sunday, where weapons had been deposited due to unpaid orders. No injuries were reported."

2. "Arms dealer ‘100% sure’ Russian agents behind blast at Bulgarian depot"

From theguardian.com the story by Shaun Walker, 1 Aug 2022.

"Emilian Gebrev says explosion on Sunday is latest of repeated attacks against him by GRU operatives"

"A Bulgarian arms dealer who survived an apparent novichok poisoning in 2015 said he was '100% sure' that Russian operatives were behind an explosion and subsequent fire at one of his depots in the country on Sunday"

According to Mr. Gebrev: “To date, we have nothing to do with the war in Ukraine. Since 2014, not a single military button has been exported to this destination for any reason. This is the most regulated activity,” 

coolbert.






Decoys.


This is coolbert:

Yet more from the Internet web site of H I Sutton "Covert Shores".

Smoke screen not alone as a measure to protect the Kerch Strait bridge from Ukrainian attack. Barge and corner-reflectors at work too.

"Russia Deploys Unusual Decoys To Protect Strategic Bridge To Crimea"

By H I Sutton 04 July 2022.

"The Kerch Bridge, built by Russia to join Crimea to mainland Russia, is a strategic link. It is vital infrastructure for the war in other parts of Ukraine. And it makes Crimea much more defendable. So it is seen as a strategic target."

"Now Russia has deployed several countermeasures systems to protect it."

"On around June 29 two target barges, normally resident in the naval base at Novorossiysk, were towed there. They have been moored on the east side of the main bridge, towards the Sea of Azov."

"These barges are covered in radar reflectors. In other circumstances they are used as a targets for the Black Sea Fleet. Now they appear to be used as radar decoys to confuse Ukrainian missiles."

See also the tweet from IntelCrab with a short video of the towed barge with corner reflectors:

* The Intel Crab @IntelCrab

"Not entirely sure what we're looking at here, but it seems a barge full of mirrored reflectors is being moved to sit in the middle of the Kerch Strait Bridge. Seems Russian fears of an attack on this bridge are growing by the day..."

Corner-reflectors: "in radar interpretation, an object that has multiple reflections from smooth surfaces produces a radar return of greater magnitude than might be expected from the physical size of the object."

Towed barge festooned with numerous corner-reflectors the mission of which is to confuse the radars of incoming Ukrainian missile.

coolbert.




Korsa.


This is coolbert:

Ilsa she-wolf of the SS I have heard of.

"Korsa" the Russian-aligned she-wolf of the Donetsk separatists I had not heard of. Female militia commander of Donetsk separatists now gone.

"Missile strike kills ‘she-wolf’ army chief who bragged about killing Ukrainians"

Story by Joshua Thurston August 05 2022, The Times

"A Russian army commander who called herself the 'she-wolf' after boasting that she enjoyed killing Ukrainians has died in a missile strike."

"Lieutenant Colonel Olga 'Korsa' Kachura is Moscow’s first female army chief to die since the invasion started in February. Kachura, 52, was killed instantly after a rocket struck her car in the city of Horlivka, Donetsk."

"A Ukrainian from the separatist region of Donetsk, where pro-Kremlin officials have declared independence from Ukraine, Kachura helped found the local militia and lead hundreds of men into combat."

A UKRAINIAN CITIZEN BUT A RUSSIAN-SPEAKER [?] AND A LEADER OF RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SEPARATISTS DONBASS. GONE NOW.

coolbert.








https://archive.ph/JYSLV#selection-763.0-883.24

Friday, August 5, 2022

SPAR19.

This is coolbert:

"Cue to 48 hours later, when hundreds of thousands across the west were glued to the screen of flighradar24.com (until the website was hacked), tracking 'SPAR19' – the US Air Force jet carrying House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – as it slowly crossed Kalimantan [Borneo] from east to west [west to east actually], the Celebes Sea, went northward parallel to the eastern Philippines, and then made a sharp swing westwards towards Taiwan, in a spectacular waste of jet fuel to evade the South China Sea."

From an Internet web site commenting on the circuitous flight route of the aircraft carrying USA Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi from Malaysia to Taiwan.

"SPAR19 becomes the most tracked flight of all time"

Click on image to see an enlarged view. Roundabout for Nancy. Precautions and prudence. Direct flight over the South China Sea seen as too hazardous. Proper measures taken.

"From the time it lifted off from Kuala Lumpur at 15:42 local time, SPAR19 was already the most tracked flight on Flightradar24 among active flights. By the time it landed in Taipei, SPAR19 was being tracked by more than 708,000 people around the world, making it the most tracked live flight in Flightradar24 history. Over the seven hours from Kuala Lumpur to Taipei, a total of 2.92 million people followed at least a portion of the flight."

I indeed had a worry that the Chinese would try to interfere in the SPAR19 flight to Taipei. Threats made repeatedly and with some vigor. An overflight and intrusion of the South China airspace as claimed by the Chinese might have well been seen as an unmistakable challenge and deliberate provocation that had to be answered with a military response of some sort.

coolbert.




High-Altitude.

This is coolbert:

“This time it is a very important exercise because the Indian side will be showcasing their high-altitude warfare strategies, while the Americans will be showcasing a number of technologies that can be used in such scenarios. This exercise has been planned in such a way that both sides come together for any scenario,”

Jawan and GI Joe in joint mountain high-altitude training exercise.

"India-US to hold high-altitude military exercise near LAC amid rising tensions with Chin"

"The joint exercise is being planned from 14 to 31 October, during which Indian and American troops will carry out 'maneuvers to exploit the full scope' of high-altitude warfare."

Thanks to theprint.in the article by SNEHESH ALEX PHILIP.

3 August, 2022.

"New Delhi: Amid rising tensions with China, India and US will come together for two weeks of high-altitude military exercise in Uttarakhand’s Auli, less than 100 km [sixty miles] from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Central Sector, ThePrint has learnt."

"The Indo-US joint exercise is known as ‘Yudh Abhyas’ and it will be the 15th edition this year."

"Sources in the defence and security establishment said the joint exercise is being planned from 14 to 31 October . . . Sources also said the location (at 10,000 feet) where the exercise will take place falls in Stage 1 of acclimatization for high altitude."

The Indian military perhaps without peer when it comes to high-altitude warfare. That Himalayan mountainous border terrain as shared with Pakistan and China necessitates and requires a demonstrable combat proficiency in such a unforgiving landscape.

coolbert.





Encapsulate.

This is coolbert:

See this You Tube video:


"Aug 2, 2022  Shiv aroor explains why china cant Invade Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi will be the first House speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years. Mrs. Pelosi opened her trip to Asia on Monday in Singapore." 


See additionally:




Even beyond see my previous blog entry the analysis of Binkov [with further links] Part I and Part II, the invasion of Taiwan by China.

coolbert.







Thursday, August 4, 2022

DJI Mavic 3.

This is coolbert:

USA 40 mm grenade high-explosive dual-purpose [HEDP] in use Ukraine. Carried aloft by modified commercial drone and dropped on targets. Small-sized shaped-charged weapon in certain circumstance able to destroy a lightly armored vehicle if used in the top attack mode.

"US-Made 40mm Grenades Rigged To DJI Mavic 3 Drone In Ukraine"

From Funker530.com the story by Will Killmore July 30, 2022.

"A short but interesting [8 second] video clip shows how Ukrainian troops are rigging munitions to consumer drones to be dropped on Russian targets. Of further interest is the choice of munition, which in this case are US-made 40mm projectile grenades, designed for MK19 and similar automatic grenade launchers. Both the DJI mavic 3 drone and projectile grenades need modifications to make this setup work, but necessity is the mother of invention."

GO SEE THAT SHORT EMBEDDED VIDEO!

Go see this additional video courtesy reddit.com HEDP as dropped apparently from a DJI mavic drone.

"A Ukrainian drone drops a 40-mm American HEDP grenade on to a Russian tank crew."

Thanks to r/SlavaUkrayini • Posted by u/uglykoala2022.

Tank as with reactive armor not hit. I doubt a hit from the 40 mm HEDP round would have damaged the tank. That HEDP round will destroy or badly damage a soft-skinned vehicle and can DAMAGE and possibly DESTROY a Soviet/Russian lightly-armored vehicle of the BMP/BMD/BRDM/BTR category!

coolbert.





Focus.


This is coolbert:

Here with some items, extracts from the H I Sutton Internet web site "Covert Shores". All thanks to H I Sutton.

Black Sea ferment, the Ukraine Conflict.

1. "OSINT: Unusual Mini-Submarine Seen In Sevastopol, Black Sea"

12 July 2022.

"Unusual Mini-Submarine Seen In Sevastopol, Black Sea"

"A major naval base supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sevastopol in Crimea is a hive of submarine activity. Several Improved-KILO class submarines are operating from there, firing cruise missiles into Ukraine. And the unique pumpjet equipped KILO, Alrosa, is undergoing sea trials. But there is another submarine which has caught my eye."

"ND Marine". But you need to read the entire article.

2. "Russian Navy Also Deployed Trained Dolphins To Novorossiysk In Black Sea"

17 July 2022.

"The revelation, based on analysis of open sources, that the Russia has deployed dolphins to guard Sevastopol, brought [military] marine mammal programs into focus. As part of the research into this I also discovered that the dolphins have previously been deployed to Novorossiysk."

"The likely training deployment can now be looked at as part of wider preparations for the invasion of Ukraine. I do not believe that this has previously been reported."

Johnny-on-the-spot military dolphins Black Sea their mission what exactly hardly clear.

"John·​ny-on-the-spot : a person who is on hand and ready to perform a service or respond to an emergency"

3. "OSINT: Indications That Russian Navy Has Shifted Focus In Black Sea"

16 July 2022.

"Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) increasingly suggests that key elements of the Russian Navy have changed their patrol areas. Remaining warships, notably the Project 11356R Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, are patrolling off the southern tip of Crimea."

"One theory is that this is to protect the Kerch Bridge.

Indeed. An attack on the Kerch Strait bridge according to the Russian is taken very seriously. See previous blog entries as regarding same:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/07/medvedev.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/07/most.html

coolbert.