Prepositioned.

This is coolbert: 

Undersea cables and other vital under-water infrastructure again! North Sea and probably beyond that. 

"Important development: Russia mine Western underwater communications in the North Sea – The first target to be hit!"

"NATO is strengthening its entire submarine [underwater] defense"

From https://warnews247 | Alexandros Boufesis info@warnews247.gr30.06.2024 | 

"NATO fears Russia has mine critical maritime infrastructure, at least in the North Sea. It is noted that a few days ago Russian analysts urged the country's Army to 'cut in two' Europe and the United States by hitting."

Internet fiber-optic cable, gas and oil pipelines mined in advance to be destroyed in the eventuality of war between NATO and Russia.

"In the last ten years, more than 160 non-military Russian ships have carried out 945 suspicious maneuvers. At least 749 – within a kilometer [half-mile] radius of the pipelines."

Guards Minelayers Russian naval GRU in action? At least during that period of the Cold War all [?] Soviet oceanic-going vessels designed with dual-purpose military/commercial mission. Has that long standing tradition continued?

See previous blog entries the potential for war-making, the undersea infrastructure problem:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/05/cables.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/05/undersea.html

coolbert.

Rheinmetall

This is coolbert:

The right intention but in the wrong place?

"German military giant to build ammunition plant in Baltic state"

 https://www.rt.com/business |   https://tinyurl.com/4nvay4dk

"The facility will boost Lithuania’s defense sector, according to Rheinmetall"

PRODUCING 155 MM ARTILLERY ROUNDS?

"German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has struck an agreement with Lithuania’s government to build a new ammunition factory in the Baltic state, according to a statement the company released on Monday.

"Lithuania has touted the deal as another step towards strengthening its defense sector, adding that the project is of importance to the state."

LITHUANIA DOES HAVE A BATTALION PLUS UNIT OF GERMAN 155 MM HOWITZERS!

See these comments to the article:

* Alec Happy:

"Paint a Bulls Eye, not on the Plant but on that stupid pretend Nation of Losers. It is so small Russia could eat it, Burp and ask, Sir, May I have some more. I just shake my head at the hubris of idiot Politicians"

* Zorro The Fox:

"Nutty as a fruitcake. If the Germans want ammunition for themselves or others to attack Russia, the Baltic States are the last places to put a factory."

Not necessarily the same but close to my exact sentiments. Especially building an absolutely essential ammunition plant so close to the border with Russia. A more worse location could not have been chosen. What exactly is Rheinmetall thinking?

coolbert.

Implications.

This is coolbert:

Μήνυμα προς τον ελληνικό λαό από τον Βλαντιμίρ της Μόσχας.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's message to the Greek people: 'Do not get involved further in Ukraine - The consequences will be tragic'"

"B. Putin warns in Greek..."

IN GREEK. [capitals for emphasis]

From https://warnews247-gr | Evangelos L. 10.06.2024 |  https://tinyurl.com/2hszdhdr

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's message to the Greek people: 'Do not get involved further in Ukraine - The consequences will be tragic'"

"A message from Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Greek people, which is actually broadcast in... Greek (!), was posted by the Russian embassy in Athens both on the X platform and on Facebook, a fact that shows the criticism of the situation in terms of military involvement of Greece in Ukraine along with the rest of the NATO forces."

Others have noticed. Broadcast in Greek! Exclamation mark!

"The Russian president informs the Greeks of the 'tragic consequences' that a deepening of Greece's military involvement [in the Ukraine Conflict] would have."

Obviously [?] this is a response to the recent graphic purportedly showing invasion routes and "corridors" as deemed to be use by American NATO reinforcements if and when general war begins in Europe. Port facilities in Greece, USA military contingents land and move northeast into the Balkans. 

See previous blog entry as applicable:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/06/corridor.html

coolbert.

Marie-Agnes.

This is coolbert:

General Rommel. You are needed. And fast too!

The Russian threatens. The German responds? All of a sudden, everyone chimes in.

1. "German Lawmaker Urges Activation Of 900,000 Reservists Over Russian Threat To Europe"

From https://www.zerohedge.com | BY TYLER DURDEN | JUN 05, 2024 |  https://tinyurl.com/2p8kynpr 

 "At a moment it is increasingly clear that there's no off-ramp for the Ukraine proxy war on the horizon in the foreseeable future, European governments have been ramping up their defense readiness amid fears of a future direct clash with Russia."

Reservists as created from an existing number of persons that have already some form military experience but are presently in the civilian sector.

2. "Germany must be ready for war – defense minister"

From https://www.rt.com/news | 6 Jun, 2024 | https://tinyurl.com/3yy5yemd

"This will require 'a new form of military service,' Boris Pistorius told lawmakers"

"Germany must prepare to wage war before the end of the decade, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has declared. However, the German military lacks basic equipment, and a parliamentary report suggests it won’t be war-ready for half a century."

See previous blog entries hardly totally inclusive German military un-readiness:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/g95a1.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/10/u-boats.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/12/u-boote.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/07/confidence.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/04/paper.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/12/puma-ifv.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/11/depletion.html

"you can't make bricks without straw: idiom UK saying - used to say that you cannot make something without the necessary materials"

AND YOU CANNOT MAKE WAR EITHER!

coolbert.

Corridor.

This is coolbert:

The plan to stick it to the Russian. Crisis situation requiring American troops to Europe in case of Russian invasion. A massive movement of men and material using already designated port facilities and roadway. 

"Report Details US Troop 'Land Corridors' In Event Of European Ground War With Russia"

https://www.zerohedge.com | BY TYLER DURDEN |  JUN 04, 2024  https://tinyurl.com/3wvnp6e3

"NATO has a plan in place for rapid deployment of its forces in the scenario of a future Russian attack on Europe. It includes the development of 'land corridors' which can be used to rush some 300,000 troops — mostly American soldiers — to front line positions in order to defend against a Russian invasion.

"High-ranking British military sources described to the Telegraph that the plan entails troops landing at key European ports whereupon they would move east along pre-planned routes to counter potential Russian attacks."

Comment:

* 300,000 troops to include American military personnel from ALL services.

* Sustainment of a battle force when hostilities commence going to be difficult. Air and land routes from North America to Europe will be contested. Port facilities and road network I can imagine damage going to be extensive.

* No elaborate deception plan needed for American military reinforcement Europe? Such a plan made public can demonstrate that a resolve is present to act if required.

See pre-positioning exercise already practiced. American military gear and personnel sent to Norway and having engaged in a road march as if moving to battle:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/05/trolls.html

https://tinyurl.com/4yshj7c7

coolbert.

Explain.

This is coolbert:

So this is what it was all about! Russian hankie-pankie and shenanigans made manifest for all to see!

Redraw the borders between the Russian Federation and a NATO nation and do so unilaterally! 

"EU's Borrell asks Russia for 'explanation' after Estonian border river incident"

Please clarify and not at your leisure! See within context the prior blog entry:  https://tinyurl.com/4phu4ky2

From Euronews ^ | 24/05/2024  | Mared Gwyn Jones | the tip from Freeper.   https://tinyurl.com/3p2wfbrf

"The removal of the navigation buoys is part of a 'broader pattern of provocative behavior' by the Kremlin, the EU's chief diplomat says. The EU's foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, has asked Moscow for an 'explanation' after buoys on the Narva River demarcating Estonia's border with Russia were removed in the early hours of Thursday. According to Estonian border guards, their Russian counterparts confiscated 24 of 50 buoys intended to mark sailing routes on the border waterway"

Russians attempting to re-designate that exact location of what is referred to as the thalweg?

"Under international law, a thalweg is instead taken to be the middle of the primary navigable channel of a waterway that is the default legal presumption for the boundary between entities such as states"

Russian skullduggery and subterfuge abandoned in mid-stream almost literally in this case? Testing the waters action so to speak!

coolbert.

Stróżyk.

This is coolbert:

Intervention to save our oppressed Russian brothers Latvia? 

Push the door. See if there is entry. Test the resolve of NATO?

1. "Head of Polish intelligence: Putin ready for mini-operation against NATO, but observes Western reaction"

From https://www.pravda.com.ua |  KHRYSTYNA BONDARIEVA |  7 MAY 2024 |  https://tinyurl.com/2td482s2

"The head of Poland's military counterintelligence service, Jarosław Stróżyk, suggests that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is already prepared for a small-scale military operation against a NATO country."

THAT NATO NATION LATVIA. THE TARGET THE CITY OF NARVA. POPULATION 90 % RUSSIAN SPEAKERS. 

A MINI-OPERATION THE OBJECT TO GAUGE THE NATO REACTION!

2. "Russia deletes draft proposal to change Baltic Sea border"

From https://www.reuters.com | By Guy Faulconbridge and Stine Jacobsen | May 22, 2024 |  https://tinyurl.com/2ttdnaex

Summary:

* "Russia's defence ministry proposes change in draft decree"

* "Unclear how the Baltic Sea border would change"

* "Draft decree is deleted without explanation"

* "Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Estonia investigate"

PROPOSALS AS UNILATERAL WITHOUT NEGOTIATIONS OR CONSULTATION.

3. "Russia mysteriously deletes threat to redraw Baltic Sea border"

From https://www.politico.eu | BY EVA HARTOG | MAY 22, 2024 |  https://tinyurl.com/mhf4n23

"Defense ministry plan had sparked alarm among NATO allies."

"Russia alarmed NATO allies by proposing to unilaterally redraw its border in the Baltic Sea, before withdrawing the bombshell text without offering an explanation."

The ruminations of Stróżyk appear to be spot-on. Thankfully on this occasion push did come to shove or worse.

"All men are brothers, like the seas throughout the world; So why do winds and waves clash so fiercely everywhere?" - Hirohito.

coolbert.

Trolls.

This is coolbert:

American army the NATO far north. Trolls beware!

 "The exercise was the first time in decades that a major Army maneuver unit had traveled so far in Europe."

"10th Mountain Division rolls more than 500 miles across Finland, Sweden and Norway"

"The exercise was the first convoy operation in the heart of the newest NATO members, Sweden and Finland."

From https://taskandpurpose.com | BY PATTY NIEBERG | MAY 13, 2024.

"Soldiers with the 10th Mountain Division recently completed an unprecedented 550-mile [nearly 900 kilometers] road trip across Norway, Sweden and Finland in which troops dealt with long-distance logistics, local laws and infrastructure regulations. It also meant keeping a sharp eye out for local wildlife."

[. . . .]

"Over the course of five days in late April, the Army’s 10th Mountain Division moved a convoy of 400 soldiers, 165 vehicles, and thousands of tons of equipment through small Scandinavian towns, around fjords, and across three different countries on a 550-mile[nearly 900 kilometers] road march."

See From Independent Barents Observer an article presumably as applicable to the road march. Vehicles and supplies being pre-positioned the far Arctic north to be used by the American 10th Mountain Division in case of war between Russia and NATO. Gear as delivered by RoRo vessels.

coolbert.

Pulverize.

This is coolbert:

Article Five the NATO charter applies? 

"Would NATO Really Hang France Out To Dry If Russia Pulverized Its Forces In Ukraine?"

"be hung out to dry:  to be in a very difficult situation where you have been abandoned by the people who previously supported you"

BY TYLER DURDEN | APRIL 07, 2024 | original article Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

"The Wall Street Journal cited an unnamed US official on Wednesday to report that 'Macron told allies that there would be no need to involve NATO or the U.S. if Russia targeted French troops' that might conventionally deploy to Ukraine in the coming future per his infamous proposal from late February."

"While he might have indeed said that, it can’t be taken for granted that the bloc or its American leader would stand aside and let Russia pulverize their partner’s forces in that former Soviet Republic."

"It would reflect very poorly on them for one of NATO’s largest members to be defeated by their traditional adversary on a neighboring nation’s soil. Even though a French official claimed that Macron only had training missions, operating defensive systems, and cyberwarfare in mind when he tabled his proposal, Russia already promised to target any of its troops there."

Article Five the NATO charter when invoked DOES NOT necessarily mean combat intervention. Means some sort of response required but might be non-lethal rather than lethal.

coolbert.

Barbarossa II.

This is coolbert:

Barbarossa II. The German moves east!! But all for the better! The trip-wire permanently in place!

Tripwire: "A tripwire force . . . is a strategic approach in deterrence theory. The tripwire force is a military force smaller than that of a potential adversary, which is designed to signal the defending side's commitment to an armed response to future aggression without triggering a security spiral."

"German Troops Start First Major Foreign Deployment Since the Second World War"

From https://www.breitbart.com | BREITBART LONDON | Apr 2024.

"VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) – Lithuanian leaders hailed a 'historic event' as Germany on Monday began deploying troops in the Baltic country – a NATO member – marking the first time since World War II that German forces will be based outside the country on a long-term basis."

"About two dozen soldiers arrived in Lithuania, laying the groundwork for a further 150 to join them later this year. The deployment is expected to be up to its full strength of 5,000 by the end of 2027."

ULTIMATELY A BRIGADE SIZED UNIT I ASSUME THE TOTAL PACKAGE COMBAT ARMS  CAPABILITY AUGMENTED BY COMBAT SUPPORT AND COMBAT SERVICE SUPPORT PERSONNEL!

General Rommel, wo sind Sie? Die NATO braucht Sie!

coolbert.

Roulette.

This is coolbert:

Roulette! Russian roulette that is! That is so funny.

"Shapps (UK Defense Minister): Nato states playing ‘Russian roulette’ with lack of defense spending"

From The Telegraph ^ | 4/3/24 | Ben-Riley Smith | the tip from Freeper.

"Nato countries that do not spend two per cent of GDP on defense spending are playing 'Russian roulette' with the West’s future, Grant Shapps has warned."

"In an article for The Telegraph to mark the military alliance’s 75th anniversary, the Defense Secretary argued that allies must accept we are now in 'a pre-war world';”. Last year, just 11 Nato members met its two per cent target, first set almost two decades ago, with France and Germany among the nations that spent less on defense."

FRANCE AND GERMANY BOTH CONTINUE TO SPEND LESS THAN THE AGREED UPON 2 % OF GDP [GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT] AS DEEMED NECESSARY FOR NATO DEFENSE! PITIFUL AND DOWNRIGHT OUTRAGEOUS!

The Lithuanians want increased spending. The Poles want increased spending. President Trump wanted increased spending. Suddenly EVERYONE wants increased spending.

See the most recent previous blog entries as pertinent:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/03/linking.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/10/enduring.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/03/wanting_12.html

coolbert.

Linking.

This is coolbert:

Some items of interest with links as pertinent to some recent blog entries. 

1. "US Claims It Hasn’t Received Formal Request to Leave Niger"

"The ruling government has said the US presence is no longer legal"

From https://news.antiwar.com | by Dave DeCamp March 21, 2024. 

"A Pentagon official on Thursday insisted that the military-led government in Niger, known as the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), has not formally asked US troops to leave the country despite declaring the US presence is no longer legally justified."

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/08/nigerien-1.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/08/nigerien-2.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/08/nigerian-3.html

American drone airfield Niger a laborious and expensive project now gone?

2. "Lithuania Pledges to Spend at Least 3% of GDP on Defense"

From https://www.usnews.com | March 21, 2024. Original story Reuters.

"VILNIUS (Reuters) - Lithuania's parliament on Thursday confirmed state budget guidelines which foresee an amount worth at least 3% of gross domestic product to be spent on defense from 2025 onwards."

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/03/wanting_12.html

As goes Poland so does now Lithuania?

coolbert.

Maginot.

This is coolbert:

PAK front Baltics? Frenzied activity now underway? Ivan beware!!

"Baltic States prepare ‘Maginot Line’ to defend against Russia"

"Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are investing heavily in fortifications along their borders with Belarus and Russia designed to slow down any future Russian advance into Europe"

From https://www.rmx | GRZEGORZ ADAMCZYK | author: BARTŁOMIEJ KUCHARSKI via: FORSAL.PL | March 08, 2024.

"Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, small in both size and population, are bolstering their defenses through NATO and EU alliances and mutual cooperation in anticipation of potential aggression from Russia."

[....]

"Although the plans of each country differ, they aim to coordinate their efforts. This cooperation may not result in a continuous line of fortifications akin to France’s pre-war Maginot Line but rather three distinct, interconnected lines of various structures. This approach leverages Lithuania and Latvia’s experiences in constructing temporary border security measures with Belarus during the migration crisis of 2021-2022."

The PAK front Baltics. Bulwark against future Russian expansive aggression. Panzer
Abwehr Kanone but minus the cannon.

Defensive fortifications designed to thwart an enemy blitzkrieg offensive. Not necessarily stopping but slow down, make your adversary deploy, take casualties. 

Fortifications consisting of anti-tank ditches, anti-tank obstacles, minefields of prodigious size [a mix of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines], pre-positioned strong points and firing positions of concrete and steel, communication trenches with overhead cover. Consider too the defeat of  radio-frequency [RF] command controlled enemy [Russian] combat drones by electronic jamming a must.

And if possible layers of such fortifications in depth!

Within context consider some of the timeless verities of combat as listed by Dupuy:

2. Defensive strength is greater than offensive strength.

3. Defensive posture is necessary when offense is impossible.

6. Defenders chance of success are directly proportional to fortifications strength.

8. Successful defense requires depth and reserves.

With regard to # 2, defense stronger in the sense you can accomplish more with less and easier.

See previous blog entries as applicable and relevant:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/07/kursk-ii.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/06/pak.html

coolbert.

Dominoes.

This is coolbert:

"Where is the front? Wherever there is one White reactionary, wherever there is one foreign interventionist, wherever there is one sentimental bourgeois poet. That is where the front is!" -Red Commissar Barsky.

French President Macron willing to commit French military units the Ukraine Conflict! Done in an overt manner! Soldiers from a NATO nation but deployment not done as part of NATO mission!

"Ukraine Map Shows French Troop Locations in Potential Intervention"

From https://www.newsweek.com | By David Brennan | Mar 21, 2024. 

"French President Emmanuel Macron's push to deploy troops to Ukraine could yet prove the first domino of an official NATO military presence in the war-torn country, even while Russia's grinding frontline assaults and nationwide bombing campaign continue."

French contingent NATO aligned but NOT a NATO agreed upon mission!

"The French leader said in late February that 'nothing was excluded' with regard to officially putting NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine, though his American and German allies were quick to explicitly, and repeatedly, exclude that possibility."

"Macron has subsequently maintained his position, even garnering backing from eastern NATO states. This week, the commander of the French ground forces said his troops were 'ready' for any deployment, suggesting that 20,000 soldiers could be prepared within 30 days. Paris, General Pierre Schill said, could even command a combined allied force of 60,000."

Macron mon ami, this is a very bad idea. Do not even contemplate or even attempt your foolish idea. You are playing with fire and from my perspective trying to be a big man on the world stage and will do so with the lives of a lot of Frenchmen.

Notice too those positions as possible for French army units either along the border with Belarus or Transnistria. With regard to the latter, see that most recent blog entry.

"Macron. N’essayez pas d’invoquer l’article cinq de la charte de l’OTAN. Vous serez dénoncé et repoussé pour vos actions stupides et votre impétuosité."

coolbert.

Wanting.

 This is coolbert:

Mene, mene, tekel, parsin.

Way too little and way too late?

"Poland Calls on NATO Allies to Raise Defense Spending to Three Per Cent of GDP"

From Breitbart ^ | 03/11/2024 | BREITBART LONDON | the tip from Freeper.

"WARSAW, Poland (AP) – Poland’s president on Monday called on other members of the NATO alliance to raise their spending on defense to 3% of their gross domestic product as Russia puts its economy on a war footing and pushes forward with its invasion of Ukraine"

Even that pledged amount of 2 % of GDP as all NATO members to be dedicated to defense spending too little now? 3 % the MINIMUM demanded by the Poles. That 2 % figure agreed upon [2014] not even met by many of the NATO member states.

Frenzied worry the commanders of the various NATO military contingents greatly worried by the prospect of the Russian bear knocking on the door - NATO.

As it was with Belshazzar the King of Babylon so it is with NATO today?

Myself I am highly skeptical the NATO nations will heed the Polish admonition! Maybe lip service but nothing more.

See recent blog entry [with many additional links] as germane: 

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/k-s.html 

coolbert.

Prepare.

This is coolbert:

More admonitions and warnings, very scary in nature from senior NATO and European military authorities and commanders.

1. "WW3 Watch: Prepare For Russian Missiles, Drones, Sabotage Against European Cities Says NATO Officer"

From https://www.breitbart.com  | OLIVER JJ LANE | 30 Jan 2024.

"A top NATO general warns the lessons of the Ukraine War shows Europe its interior and cities cannot expect to be left untouched if Russia and the Alliance fight."

“'Rear areas will be severely contested' in an attempt to 'destroy lines of communication' in the case of a war between Russia and NATO, a top general from the alliance states, while warning the ability of NATO to credibly deter aggression has been eroded since the end of the Cold War.

We are talking here first of all about Russian long range missile attack the target of which will be vital/critical infrastructure.

Secondly, we are talking about ground force attack behind-the-lines by the famed Soviet/Russian SPETSNAZ.

SPETSNAZ, Soviet and now Russian special purpose units, ranger/commando types, cut-throat killer-elite.

A major function and goal of SPETSNAZ attack Western Europe will be to destroy the nuclear weapons capacity of Great Britain and France.

2. "Why are European Governments Urging Citizens to Stockpile Prescription Drugs?"

BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY | https://www.zerohedge.com

"European Governments Fear Prescription Drug Shortages – Urge Stockpiling"

"The question of whether or not you should be prepared for prescription drug shortages is not an issue that has received much coverage here in the U.S., nor is it an issue the Biden administration seems at all concerned about." 

"In Europe, however, the issue is not just getting attention from the media, some European governments are actually encouraging citizens to stockpile prescription drugs."

Supply chain of drugs to the European population might be curtailed during a time of war. Additionally, no possibility of alternative sources will be available in the interim.

Consider also, that stockpiling of drugs and medication’s of all sorts is not necessarily a good idea, rather quite often a bad idea, for a variety of reasons do not do any of that, unless it is so absolutely necessary, and then only under the most rarest of circumstances"

"keep in mind you do not want to needlessly stockpile medications. Medications have expiration dates. Also, it is possible that the dose of your medication could change in the future, making the stockpiled medication superfluous. It may be reasonable to consider a one-month supply as a back-up. More than that could be potentially wasteful."

See previous blog entries war warnings it’s from senior European military commanders and officials:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/blow.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/k-s.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/hunky-dory.html

coolbert.

Atrophy.

This is coolbert:

"All that this signing ceremony has advertised is NATO’s weakness — the atrophying of its defense industrial base, the corruption of its military procurement process, and the incompetence of its elites." - D. Sacks.

See this tweet from David Sacks. The Shell Crisis of 1915 during WW1 previously having been been noted. The shell crisis of the Ukraine Conflict now having been addressed but it seems very tepid and half-hearted manner!

Demand will be far greater than even the most promising estimates of productivity!

Click on image to see an enlarged view.

See all previous blog entries the Ukraine Conflict shell crisis:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/12/noted.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/11/ramp-up.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/10/inflation.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/03/creation.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/03/production.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/02/farewell.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/01/expanded.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/07/skimpiness.html

coolbert.

Hunky Dory.

This is coolbert:

"hunky-dory: adjective - quite satisfactory : FINE"

“'I’m not going to say everything is going to go wrong tomorrow, but we have to realize it is not a given that we are in peace' . . . 'not everything is plannable, not everything is going to be hunky-dory for the next 20 years.'” - Adm. Bauer.

Do these people in senior positions within NATO know something we should know? 

"NATO: Next 20 Years Not ‘Hunky Dory’ and Public Needs to Prepare Itself to Survive ‘The First 36 Hours’ of War"

From https://www.breitbart.com | OLIVER JJ LANE | 19 Jan 2024.

"NATO militaries are better prepared for war now than they were a year ago but broader society hasn’t yet realized it needs to as well, and if the public starts panic-buying radios, torches, and bottled water to 'survive the first 36 hours' then ;that’s great', the alliance’s military chief said."

See prior blog entries as applicable:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/svensk.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/18-months.html

coolbert.

Unwavering.

This is coolbert:

More on the British minesweepers that have been donated to the Ukrainian. Passage through the Hellespont/Dardanelles/Bosphorus denied!

“Our relevant allies have been informed that the mine hunting ships donated to Ukraine by the United Kingdom will not be allowed to pass through the Turkish Straits to the Black Sea as long as the war continues,” - the Turkish presidency’s communications directorate.

"NATO state won't let UK send minesweepers to Ukraine"

"Citing international law, Türkiye has said it will block the vessels from entering the Black Sea"

From https://www.rt.com/news |  2 Jan, 2024.

As a strong as suspected, this all has to do with the Montreux treaty convention of 1936!

"The Turkish government said on Tuesday that it will not allow minesweeping vessels that the UK has pledged to donate to Ukraine to enter the Black Sea. Ankara, which controls the straits linking the Black Sea with the Mediterranean, shut down access to foreign warships when the conflict in Ukraine began in 2022."

"British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced last month that the UK would hand over two Royal Navy mine-hunting ships to Ukraine. Shapps claimed that by clearing Russian mines, the craft would make it easier for Ukraine to conduct naval operations against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, while clearing export routes to bolster the country’s battered economy."

[....]

"Türkiye 'has been implementing the Montreux Convention impartially and meticulously since 1936,' the statement continued, adding that it will maintain this 'unwavering determination and principled attitude throughout this war.'”

The only alternative at this point is for Bulgaria and Romania to donate their own minesweepers to Ukrainian?

coolbert.

Blocked.

This is coolbert:

NATO versus NATO? The ancient waterway of the Hellespont/Dardanelles/Bosphorus a naval blocking chokepoint.

"Turkey blocks Royal Navy ships sent to Ukraine as NATO falls apart"

From Express UK ^ | January 2, 2024 | Hannah Kane, Liam Doyle.

"Turkey has vowed to block two British Royal Navy ships intended for Ukraine to pass through its waters. Last month, Britain said it would transfer the two minehunter ships to the Ukrainian navy to help bolster its sea operations in its war with Russia. However, the Turkish presidency's communications directorate has now said it will not let the vessels through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits."

This is an issue of the Montreaux Convention of 1938? British mine hunting/clearing war ships as intended for delivery to the Ukrainian being barred from entry into the Black Sea

According to the Montreux Convention of 1938 military vessels of nations without a border on the Black Sea, can remain within the confines of the Black Sea for a maximum of 21 days. Barely transferring the ships to Ukrainian naval control does not meet the exacting requirements of the Montreux Convention?

The NATO nations of Bulgaria and Romania can indeed transfer vessels that are mine hunting/clearing war ships to the Ukrainian, and do so in a legal manner not contravening the Montreaux Convention of 1938? Of this I am not sure.

coolbert.