Friday, April 30, 2021

Britannia II.


This is coolbert:

Conclusion!

Britannia rules the waves. But only as long as Americans are present?

From the Aviationist more on the initial deployment of the British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth. Indian Ocean/Pacific patrol.

"USMC F-35Bs Have Landed At RAF Lakenheath For Upcoming HMS Queen Elizabeth’s Indo-Pacific Deployment"

"USMC F-35Bs have arrived at RAF Lakenheath to deploy aboard HMS Queen Elizabeth."

"Split into two sections, each including 5 jets, a total of 10 USMC F-35Bs aircraft have arrived at RAF Lakenheath, UK."

"The USMC F-35Bs aircraft . . . in the next weeks, they will depart RAF Lakenheath to head to the HMS Queen Elizabeth, for UK’s new aircraft carrier’s first operational deployment."

American F-35B Lightning, piloted by U.S. Marine Corps combat aviators will comprise more than half of warplane assets as carried by the Queen Elizabeth!!

USMC pilots and their aircraft totally 100 % embedded with British naval aviation aboard the ship. Part and parcel of the crew no different apparently than if they had British nationality. Never heard of such a thing before!

coolbert.




Perle/Saphir.

This is coolbert:

"Double, double toil and trouble;"

"Fire burn, and cauldron bubble."

AND let the welding begin!

"France cuts two nuclear-powered submarines in half to make one new one"

Perle lives! And so does Saphir! At least half of each!

From CNN and the article by Brad Lendon, CNN.

"(CNN) A French nuclear-powered submarine severely damaged by fire last year has been saved from the scrapyard -- by cutting it in two and welding the salvageable half to part of another decommissioned sub."

"An intense 14-hour-long accidental fire on the attack submarine Perle while it was in dry dock for repairs last June left the front section of the boat unusable, according to the French Defense Ministry. It suffered structural damage to steel components that could not be repaired."

Very well done French! My compliments. Innovative approach and presumably will work well. Everybody needs to think so well. I cannot recall a single instance of such an effort before.

coolbert.






Thursday, April 29, 2021

Britannia I.

This is coolbert:

Britannia rules the waves? The sun never sets on the British Empire?

Royal Navy [RN] vicinity Pacific Ocean. As it has not been since 1945? 

Thanks to the Internet web site South Front.

"TENSIONS RISE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: BRITISH FLOTILLA TO SAIL THROUGH ASIAN WATERS"

"A flotilla of Royal Navy of the United Kingdom leaded by HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier [with a full contingent of F-35B warplanes] will pass through Asian waters on port visits to Japan and South Korea, according to the British embassy in Tokyo. The decision was made after Australia had warned of threats of conflict in the region."

Additionally, courtesy once again the Internet web site South Front this graphic of interest.

Click on image to see an enlarged view. WHO even needs space-based oceanic surveillance satellites to keep track of the American fleet carrier deployments when all you do is refer to the Internet for the latest and most accurate information. Amazing!

coolbert.


 



Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Letter.


This is coolbert:

The Turk does it. The French do it too!

Open letter to the French government from the highest ranks of the military [retired flag officers]. Criticism not taken lightly or ignored by the French civilian legally constituted authority.

Courtesy Russian Times.

"French defense minister threatens ‘sanctions’ against ex-generals behind open letter blasting Islamism and ‘suburban hordes’"

"French Defense Minister Florence Parly has said that former high-ranking military personnel may be punished for signing a letter urging the president to stop the looming disintegration of the country and possible civil war."

"The letter, which had caused a stir in the media, was published in the conservative ‘Valeurs Actuelles’ news magazine on April 21. The appeal was signed by around 20 retired generals along with 'a hundred senior officers and more than a thousand soldiers,' the magazine said."

Woke! Cancel culture! Critical race theory! All the bells and whistles an American import and abhorred by the traditional minded French military patriot. Not here they say!

Historically the French military not so hesitant or reticent to becoming openly involved in French internal politics. Think even back to 1960 and the OAS. Warnings and admonitions should not be ignored?

See previous blog entry the Turkish admiral flag officers and THEIR open letter to President Erdogan.

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2021/04/admirals.html

coolbert.



Nakhimov


This is coolbert:

STRONGEST? IN THE ENTIRE WORLD? STRONGEST?

From the Russian Internet outlet TASS and thanks to same.

Battlecruiser Nakhimov ready to go. Took a long time!

"Russian missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov to become world’s strongest warship after upgrade"

"The heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov has been under repairs at the Sevmash Shipyard since 1999; real work on the warship has been carried out since 2013

REPAIRS AND UPGRADE PROCEEDING FOR OVER TWENTY YEARS!

"The upgrade has substantially boosted the cruiser’s strike capabilities. She was relaunched in August 2020 and is expected to start sea trials in about 2022. It's expected to receive 174 VLS tubes: 80 for anti-surface and 94 for anti-air warfare"

VLS = Vertical Launch System. Missiles. A mix of surface to surface and surface to air capability.

"Admiral Nakhimov is slated to carry the P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missile and a naval variant of the S-400 (missile) SAM system"

Battlecruiser substantial armament, fast speed, but reduced armor. That is the normal definition. Seems to be a class of warship as not seen since Jutland. A SINGLE ship of that class now is ready to sail the waves? So it seems.

coolbert.




Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Andrey.

This is coolbert:

From the Independent Barents Observer and thanks to same.

Russian FSB [counter-intelligence] in action. But quite selectively?

"Video blogger arrested by FSB, accused of revealing state secrets"

"Andrey Pyzha was detained only few days after a visit to the Kola Peninsula".


Andrey the creator of many You Tube video detained and facing imprisonment. Seems he visited the location of an ABANDONED Soviet era Ballistic Missile Early Warning System site. BMEWS. NATO code name Hen House. See the controversial [?] video for yourself. Unfortunately no English subtitles. But the video is good and worth viewing. 

ADREY TOO IN THE HABIT OF VISITING ABANDONED SOVIET MILITARY INSTALLATIONS AND REPORTING ON SAME!.

"But it is the report from Olenegorsk and the partly closed Dnepr-M radar complex that is probably the most intriguing of Pyzha’s stories from the north. In the film, published in October 2019, the blogger makes it unnoticed into the once key strategic object the Kola Peninsula. He finds a facility that is in a dire and dilapidated condition."

From the wiki regarding the Hen House radar installation:

"Dnestr radar . . . and Dnepr radar . . . both known by the NATO reporting name Hen House are the first generation of Soviet space surveillance and early warning radars. Six radars of this type were built around the periphery of the Soviet Union starting in the 1960s to provide ballistic missile warnings for attacks from different directions."

I would hardly think that images of ABANDONED Soviet era military bases such a national security threat. See these many links at the Internet web site English Russia the topic in all cases ABANDONED Soviet era military installations and equipment.

Hardly also I think that a Russian military installation "in a dire and dilapidated condition" and having been so for perhaps a thirty year period of much interest to anyone.

coolbert.






ROKN.


This is coolbert:

From Commander Salamander and thanks to same.

"Learn from it."

"Don't Cry for the Navy's Cruiser Problem"

"On the list of things future historians will blow-torch early 21st Century US Navy leadership over will be the almost criminal mismanagement of their battle fleet - and it's cruiser fleet most of all."

Ford class aircraft carrier and problems associated with same I am aware of. Zumwalt class destroyer and problems associated with same I am familiar with. Littoral combat ship class of warship and problems associated with same I am familiar. CG(X0 cruiser and problems associated with I WAS NOT familiar with. 

Warships of foreign manufacture needed to fill avoid? See previous blog entries as applicable:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/05/fremm-ffg-x.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2021/01/burned.html

Also see some comments to the Salamander article:

* Vatertortuga • 5 days ago

"This would be laughable if it were no so bloody serious. CG(X), DD(X), LCS, Ford, F-35, and on and on. What was the last successful system outside of the sub community? The same mistakes have been repeated/refined since the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, yet no flag has been fired, no program manager has been forced out in disgrace. Until such time as repercussions are felt (professionally and economically) I see no course change for our Navy."

* Ken N • 5 days ago • edited

"The most powerfully armed ships in the world right now, are, arguably, the ROKN Sejong the Great-class destroyer's, with 128 VLS tubes. These stretched out Arleigh Burke class destroyers would make great cruisers, especially if they can be fitted with a SPY-6 that's larger than the ones on the Arleigh Burkes flight 3's. Why do we have to reinvent the wheel instead?"

SOUTH KOREANS [ROK] MAKE THE BEST WARSHIP IN THE WORLD? KOREANS? AMERICANS NEED TO BUY OR BUILD UNDER LICENSE A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE SEJONG CLASS VESSEL AND MERELY  DURING A PROCESS OF CATCH-UP? IS THIS WHAT IT HAS COME TO WITH THE U.S. NAVY?

coolbert.




Monday, April 26, 2021

Apocalyptic.

This is coolbert:

Outstanding. I highly recommend.

Without further ado go to the linked website and view the images.  Thanks to English Russia in all instances.

Leningrad 1941. St. Petersburg today.

"Blockaded Leningrad Vs. Saint-Petersburg of Today"

"Blockaded Leningrad and present day Saint-Petersburg. Same places, but so different emotions. Let peace on Earth last forever."

Events WW2 within and around the city of Leningrad apocalyptic.

According to the wiki:

"The blockade became one of the longest and most destructive sieges in history, and it was possibly the costliest siege in history due to the number of casualties which were suffered during it"

Three and one-half million Soviet/Russian casualties. Like I said, apocalyptic!

coolbert.




Monday, April 19, 2021

Scythians.

This is coolbert:

Clone the super-soldier? The Chinese want to do it. The Russians want to do it too?

"Does Putin really need another army? Russia's defence minister [Shoigu] wants to CLONE 3,000-year-old ancient warriors from remains found in Siberia (and their horses to boot)"

* "Sergei Shoigu has unveiled desire to clone ancient royal warriors"

* "The ancient Tunnug burial site is located in the Valley of the Kings" 

* "'We would like very much to find the organic matter'"

Burial site of ancient Scythian warrior of old being unearthed as we speak. Skeletal remains of royalty [?] found in good condition. DNA remnants can be extracted and analyzed? From those remnants the super-soldier can be cloned?

SCYTHIANS A PEOPLE OF THE EURASIAN STEPPE-LAND. NOTED FOR THEIR HORSEMANSHIP, FIGHTING ABILITY, RUTHLESSNESS AND RAPACITY.

The super-soldier an idea of Joseph Stalin from almost one-hundred years ago. Create a cross, human and gorilla, very strong, having great endurance, able to withstand great hardship, train-able and relatively docile, able to respond to commands almost robot like. The concept as proposed by Joe went nowhere but the idea was there nonetheless.

coolbert.




Dolphin.

This is coolbert:

From the Internet web site The Aviationist and thanks to You Tube Russian naval aviation deploys [an exercise] a naval sea mine of  prodigious size.

"Watch A Russian Navy Il-38N “Dolphin” Load A Superlarge Sea Bottom Mine For Anti-Submarine Warfare Exercise"

"For the first time, five Russian Navy Il-38 and Il-38N aircraft have taken part together in an Anti-Submarine Warfare exercise laying sea bottom mines." Look at the size of that mine!

See previous blog entries [with additional embedded links] the efficacy of the naval sea mine unquestionable:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/04/port-arthur.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/12/bloch-i.html

coolbert.




Sunday, April 18, 2021

Embargo.


This coolbert:

"TSMC is just so dominant. It no longer really has much competition at all on the high end."

Embargo Japan 1940! Embargo China 2021?  Oil 1940. Semi-conductor chips 2021?

From Freeper and various sources. | 04/14/2021.

"Taiwan Says Its Chip Firms Will Adhere to New US Rules Blacklisting China Supercomputing Entities"

"TAIPEI—Taiwan said on Wednesday its chip companies will adhere to U.S. rules after Washington added seven Chinese supercomputing entities last week to an economic blacklist and after a Taipei-based chipmaker halted orders from one of the entities named"

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co  in particular absolutely essential to the HIGH-END [as deemed] semi-conductor fabrication process. HIGH-END integrated circuits of the type you find in super-computers.

War between China and Taiwan [involving the USA] would be a disaster for the world economy without question. NO semi-conductors and NO high-technology development beyond what already is. A company such as TSMC hard to replace even in the long run. My understanding is that nations such as Taiwan and South Korea not only manufacture the HIGH-END chips but also manufacture the machines that make the chips.

My instantaneous and intuitive response upon reading this embargo headline is that if and when conflict occurs between China and Taiwan [and the USA], the "blacklisting" will be seen as analogous to the 1940 Japanese oil embargo.

ACTION AS A PRELUDE TO WAR!

In essence you are depriving the Chinese of an essential element vital for the functioning of modern society. The Chinese will feel COMPELLED to take action. 

Let us hope not!

coolbert.





Enigma.


This is coolbert:

Consider this as a joke? A joke? Right? A joke?

From Harry at Sharkhunters and the most recent KTB.

The much storied and fabled Enigma cryptographic machine as first developed one-hundred years ago now is going to be placed back into service?

A general solution to the Enigma cryptograph worked out seventy years ago and well understood. Enigma newly manufactured again will find wide usage? This just cannot be so!!

"The Enigma is about to make a comeback. The German Federal Office for Communications Security (BSK) is currently having 10,000 copies manufactured, which are to be used in all federal agencies under secret protection from May [2021] onwards. The Second World War also brought an end to the use of the well-known Enigma encryption machine in Germany. There was a switch to other machines, and later electronic encryption devices prevailed. According to a press release from the German Federal Office for Communications Security (BSK), however, the Enigma will soon make a comeback. All 122 federal authorities in Germany that are subject to secrecy protection are to use Enigma for encryption from May 2021. This applies in particular to data classified as “EU Districted” and “NATO  Districted.” 10,000 new Enigmas are currently being produced for this purpose. Comeback comes as no surprise. The BSK’s decision does not come as a surprise. In recent years, German authorities have had to contend with numerous IT security attacks,  which have also repeatedly undermined encryption programs."

"According to BSK President Erna Schonböhm, this problem has long been known. 'However, experience shows that cyber attacks on encryption software pose a much greater threat than insecure encryption methods,' Schonböhm said, 'so we accept possible vulnerabilities in Enigma encryption and are also planning some additional precautionary measures.'”

IF YOU LISTEN CLOSELY YOU WILL TURING AND ARTHUR SCHERBIUS ARE LAUGHING!

And you the devoted reader to the blog should be laughing also. See the German Internet web site CIPHERBRAIN and see why this is so.

coolbert.




Saturday, April 17, 2021

Findlater.

This is coolbert:

The problem with Scotland is that the place is full of Scots!" - - Edward I.

NOT in 1897 it was!

From Commander Salamander and Fullbore Friday


"You have no idea."

"In the summer of 1897 tribesmen of the North-western frontier of India (now a part of Pakistan) began attacking and intimidating British forces in the area. The Indian Government decided that the unprovoked attacks by the Afridis and the Orakzais tribesmen could not go unpunished and decided that a show of force in Tirah, the tribe’s summer home, was appropriate."


Read the whole Commander Salamander blog entry. And thanks for the music too! Something very primeval about the pipes.

coolbert.




ISCAP.

This is coolbert:

As extracted from a Strategy Page Internet web site article the Mozambique situation in the nutshell [more than a nutshell if you read the entire article]. Thankis to Strategy Page and Andrew Mulholland

"Counter-Terrorism: Mozambique Matters"

"April 16, 2021: The Islamic terrorism problem has gotten worse, and is happening in a country where Moslems are a minority." 

20 % of the population Mozambique Muslim!

"Since the natural gas discoveries over a decade ago, Mozambique’s northernmost region, the Cabo Delgado area came to be called the Cinderella province because of the expected oil and natural gas bonanza." 

"The local anger at the new natural resource bonanza is a common phenomenon in Africa, where most nations with oil or natural gas or any valuable exportable raw material see most of the export income stolen by corrupt politicians."

POOR GOVERNANCE, AN INEPT AND INSUFFICIENT MILITARY VERSUS MOTIVATED JIHADISTS AND YOU THE RECIPE FOR DISASTER.

Devoted readers to the blog are encouraged to read the entire whole Strategy Page article. Mozambique not going away as a news item I fear both in the short and long term.

coolbert.





Friday, April 16, 2021

ADF.

This is coolbert:

“I call on all Muslims in the world to join us in Congo,” . . . “I swear by God this is the abode of [the] Islamic State.”

AND if it isn't now, it will be so shortly?

From the Wall Street Journal and the article by Benoit Faucon, Nicholas Bariyo and Joe Parkinson.

"Islamic State Seeks Revival in Christian Countries"

"Central African affiliates launch deadly assaults in Congo and Mozambique, as terror group latches onto local insurgencies"

"KAMPALA, Uganda—Islamic State was collapsing in Iraq and Syria, but from the jungles of Eastern Congo a jihadist appeared on YouTube to declare that the Caliphate was regrouping in Central Africa."

According to the precepts of Mao guerrilla warfare/insurrection central Africa the demographics not favoring the Caliphate II, Islamic State!

CAR = Central African Republic. DRC = Democratic Republic of the Congo. 
ROC = Republic of the Congo.

Percentages of the national population Muslim for central African nations as found at the CIA World Factbook:

* CAR  10 % Muslim  * DRC Congo  1.3 %  Muslim  * ROC Congo 1.6 % Muslim  * Gabon  10 % Muslim  * Cameroon  25 % Muslim  * Tanzania   35 %  * Kenya   11 % Muslim  * Zambia   < 3 %  Muslim  * Angola. 20 % Muslim  * Malawi  13 % Muslim  * Rwanda   2 % Muslim  * Uganda  14 % Muslim  * Mozambique 20 % Muslim.

And the thought of the Islamic insurgent central Africa with regard to demographics is what?

coolbert.





Thursday, April 15, 2021

Crane.


This is coolbert:

"Like no other". "How do you think he does it? What makes him so good?"

"STEPHEN CRANE CONVEYED WAR’S HORROR, EXISTENTIAL ANGST LIKE NO OTHER"

From the Internet webzine "Coffee or Die": OPINION & ESSAY By J.E. McCollough | 

"Stephen Crane wrote about war long before he ever saw combat as a journalist. Crane was born after the Civil War, and despite never having pulled a trigger in that conflict, he wrote vivid prose in The Red Badge of Courage about combat he hadn’t seen. The novella was a plotless narrative of a single soldier’s [Henry Fleming] humiliating cowardice and eventual redemption in the Civil War. It made Crane internationally famous in 1895 because he wrote so viscerally readers thought he must be a combat veteran."

Indeed! While a schoolboy in grammar school [primary education] I very well remember reading the "Red Badge of Courage" and absolutely thinking that events as described in the novella the more or less personal experience and account of Crane himself. Crane was Fleming and Fleming was Crane. But this was just not so!

Also indeed the cinematic version of "Red Badge" having in the lead role Audie Murphy. The most decorated [?] American war hero of World War Two. See the movie trailer at the IMDB web site.

coolbert.






Stripes.

This is coolbert:

NOT in over fifty years?

Ominous? Or just scare tactics? Devoted reader to the blog decide for yourself.

"Russian military vehicles descend on Ukrainian border, don 'invasion stripes'"

"The military exercise could be seen as a challenge to the US"

From Fox News through Freeper and the article by Jesse O'Neill | New York Post

WHITE STRIPES AS PAINTED ON RUSSIAN ARMORED VEHICLES. IN CASE OF A SHOOTING WAR PREVENTING FRATRICIDE. RUSSIAN ARMOR POISED ON THE BORDER AND READY TO ROLL?

The painting of such stripes as was last done [?] in 1968. The Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia.

"During the Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, the Soviet Union used a series of white stripes on the armoured vehicles of its invasion forces because they used predominantly the same types of combat vehicles as the armed forces of Czechoslovakia (both were Warsaw Pact allies). The markings consisted of one long white strip in the middle of the vehicle from the front and across the roof all the way to the back with two additional strips in the middle of both sides. This is similar to the markings applied on most Soviet tanks and armoured fighting vehicles fighting in Berlin in 1945 during the Second World War to prevent friendly fire from Western Allied (British or American) aircraft"

Marking of such vehicles in the manner as which done a wartime measure only? That is why I say ominous!

See previous blog entry the Russian military activity on the side of the disputed border with the Ukraine of great concern

coolbert.







Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Ustinov.


This is coolbert:

"One Englishman and you have an idiot. Two Englishmen and you have a club. Three Englishmen and you have an empire."

AND FOUR SOVIET BLOC DEFENSE MINISTERS DYING FROM THE SAME CAUSE IN LESS THAN A MONTH AND YOU HAVE??

From the Internet blog web site of Al we have this extract:

"Four events evenly spread throughout that month [Decembe 1984] had no business being practically simultaneous. Yet simultaneous they were, vindicating the ironclad rule of intelligence analysts: if coincidences number more than two, they aren’t coincidences."

"On 2 December, Army General Hoffmann, East Germany’s Defence Minister died of cardiac arrest. On 15 December, Army General Oláh, Hungary’s Defence Minister, died of cardiac arrest. On 16 December, Army General Dzúr, Czechoslovakia’s Defence Minister, died of cardiac arrest. On 20 December, Marshal Ustinov, Soviet Defence Minister, died of cardiac arrest."

"Since it’s statistically improbable that four defence ministers of communist countries succumbed to the same diagnosis during 18 days of the same month [December 1984], one has to doubt either the cause of their deaths or its natural, unassisted aetiology"

"aetiology: n. An inquiry into or a theory of the physical causes of any class of phenomena. n. Specifically, in medicine, an inquiry into or account of the origin or causes of disease, or of a particular kind or case of disease.

Hardly do I remember such high-ranking military men gone so quickly being a cause for concern. Over thirty years ago so my mind is fuzzy regarding the matter?

My instantaneous thought was this was related in some manner to the Warsaw Pact and Soviet response to Proud Prophet and Able Archer. It what manner exactly however I cannot say.

DEVOTED READERS TO THE BLOG LET ME HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS TOPIC. YOUR THOUGHTS INVITED.

coolbert.




BMEWS.


This is coolbert:

BMEWS (Ballistic Missile Early Warning) System.

The USA and the Soviet Union/Russia have had such systems for decades. NOW China too? Early detection and tracking of intercontinental missile launch. Carrying atomic warheads.

Thanks here to the Strategy Page Internet web site and thanks to same.

"Strategic Weapons: China Gets A BMEWS"

"April 5, 2021: In early 2021 China and Russia agreed, after more than a year of negotiations, to develop a joint BMEW (Ballistic Missile Early Warning) system. This involves Russia providing the tech needed to bring Chinese BMEW equipment up to Russian standards. As an incentive for Russia to cooperate, and provide the needed tech,"

WITH THE HELP OF THE RUSSIANS THE CHINESE NOW HAVE AN EARLY WARNING RADAR SYSTEM PRESUMABLY TO DETECT THE LAUNCH AND TRAJECTORY OF INCOMING MISSILES [USA?] ARMED WITH ATOMIC WARHEADS.

Beyond BMEWS read the final paragraph of the article. Russians not such friends of the Chinese as might be thought? Russians have concerns about a robust and well armed China? The Century of Shame to an extent at the hands of the Russians has not been forgotten?

See from Binkov analysis how a war between Russian and China would develop eventuate.

coolbert.




Tuesday, April 13, 2021

ASJW.


This is coolbert:

"WE CAN EXPECT MOZAMBIQUE AS THE SECOND ISLAMIC STATE CALIPHATE TO NOW BE A RALLYING POINT FOR WORLD-WIDE JIHAD AND INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM."

True? False? Etc. A rallying point? Caliphate II?

Thanks once more to the outstanding Internet web site War on the Rocks we have the analysis.

"FOREIGN FIGHTERS AND THE TRAJECTORY OF VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE"

Article by EMILIA COLUMBO AND AUSTIN C. DOCTOR.

FOREIGN FIGHTERS ASJW ALREADY A FACT. A FURTHER INFLUX OF RECRUITS FROM ALL PARTS OF AFRICA  AND EVEN FROM BEYOND AFRICA CAN FULLY BE EXPECTED?

From the article these paragraphs concentrate solely on the presence now and in the future of foreign fighters within the insurgency.

* "What We Know (and Do Not Know) About Foreign Fighters in ASWJ"

* "How Foreign Fighters Impact the Trajectory of Violence"

* "Foreign Fighters Complicate Regional and International Support"

* "Looking Ahead"

Mozambique just a few months not even on the map of world conflicts. Not anymore!

coolbert.



Incredulous.


This is coolbert:

Armistice/peace talks/compromise settlement in 1916? The Great War. Never heard of such a thing. Seems I am not alone.

All devoted readers to the blog and those merely perusing in a casual manner I strongly suggest without reservation or qualification the embedded podcast in the # 1 link below. Please listen. Even a MUST! Also thanks to War on the Rocks.

1. "The Greatest Unknown Tragedy of World War I".

The German in the fall of 1916 proposing to the American government a negotiated and compromise settlement to the Great War [WW1]. President Wilson as the mediator. A proposal favorably advocated by Wilson. A proposal never coming to fruition however.

Go listen for yourself.

2. Here read the entries at a forum a discussion of how such negotiations might have transpired, the concessions made, etc.

In the aftermath of The Somme, Verdun, Jutland a stalemated war was obvious to everyone, even the Kaiser. Consequences of a settlement in 1916 beyond comprehension?

No Hitler, no Stalin, no WW2? With all that means. The world order as it exists today far different.

coolbert.



Monday, April 12, 2021

4/12/61.


This is coolbert:

From the banner headlines of the New York Times as of 4/12/1861. Thanks to Freeper.

NEW-YORK, FRIDAY, APRIL 12, 1861,

* "THE WAR IMMINENT."

* "Formal Demand for the Surrender of Fort Sumpter."

* "THE REFUSAL OF MAJ. ANDERSON."

* "The Bombardment Probably to Commence Immediately."

* "THE WAR FLEET OFF THE HARBOR."

* "The Entire Government Forces Destined for Charleston."

* "WARLIKE PREPARATIONS AT SAVANNAH."

All has been made ready. Preparations complete. Demands made and refused. No backing down now. AND for four years into the future. The die has been cast.

"On Friday, April 12, 1861, at 4:30 a.m., Confederate batteries opened fire on the fort, firing for 34 straight hours"

coolbert.



Sunday, April 11, 2021

3M.


This is coolbert:

All wrong! Every bit of it!

 From the Russian Internet media outlet Russian Times [RT] and thanks to same.

"200,000+ US military personnel & veterans claim defective 3M earplugs led to hearing problems as first lawsuit goes to court"

"More than 200,000 US service members and veterans who suffer from hearing issues are suing manufacturer 3M for allegedly supplying defective earplugs to the Pentagon. The litigation is one of the largest lawsuits of its kind."

AGAIN, WRONG! ALL WRONG! I CANNOT STATE IT STRONGLY ENOUGH!

It does not matter if the 3M ear plugs were defective or not. Ear plugs placed into the opening of the ear do little to protect your hearing from very loud, sharp and abrupt repetitive noise such as gunfire or artillery rounds being fired.

Hearing loss mainly due to damage to a bone located right under the skin and behind the ear. 

ONLY EAR CUPS WILL GIVE YOU HEARING PROTECTION AGAINST THE TYPE OF NOISE YOU WILL ENCOUNTER IN A MILITARY COMBAT ENVIRONMENT.

coolbert.





Saturday, April 10, 2021

Intense.


This is coolbert:

Still another extract, a headline from the New York Times in those days just prior to overt combat action - - The American Civil War, The War Between the States.

"THE WAR CLOUD: Preparations for Attacking Fort Sumpter; MILITARY AND NAVAL MOVEMENTS: CONTINUED ACTIVITY AT THE NAVY-YARD AND MILIARY POSTS (4/9/1861)"

New York Times archives – Times Machine ^ | 4/9/1861

"CHARLESTON, Monday, April 8. Everything is now prepared for action. All vessels have been ordered to keep out of the range of fire between Fort Sumpter and Sullivan's Island. The famous Floating Battery is expected to sail at 7 o'clock P.M., for a point somewhere near Fort Sumpter. A house has just been blown up near the five-gun battery. Business is entirely suspended, and the most intense excitement prevails"

AS DESCRIBED "INTENSE EXCITEMENT" AND ALL HAS BEEN MADE READY!

OH, how glorious it must have seemed at the time.

coolbert.





Friday, April 9, 2021

Cobra.


This is coolbert:

Snakes, bugs, rats. Etc.

Military survival training the consumption of unpalatable and hardly normal sustenance routine.

Also controversial? According to PETA it is.

1. "PETA protesting outside Pentagon demanding Marines stop eating bugs, snake blood in survival training"

"U.S. Marines drink the blood of a king cobra during jungle survival training as part of Cobra Gold 19. . . . The organization People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) called on supporters to protest outside the Pentagon on Thursday and hold large photos of U.S. Marines drinking snakes’ blood during survival training in an effort to pressure U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to discontinue the practice"

A military training exercise? Drinking snakes' blood? Eating bugs? PETA is outraged? Perhaps without sounding too flippant PETA can suggest a computer simulation as a substitute?

And what about the U.S. Army Special Forces [SF] Dog Lab? Haven't heard about that in a long time. Surgical training of SF medics involving for a long time [and was controversial too] the use of dogs as live "victims" of gunshot wounds. Save the dogs life Mr. Medic! Use rudimentary surgical techniques as taught to successfully treat the wounded animal.

Here is the answer? Dogs no longer used. Now the animal of choice is the goat? Thanks to the Internet web site Wired.

2. "Secrets of the Special Ops Goat Lab Revealed"

"In follow-up to yesterday’s 'goat post,' we’ll now fill in the details. Just as a reminder: I asked yesterday why Special Operations Command at Ft. Bragg wants to buy goats. As much as I would desperately like to believe that the main purpose of the Goat Lab at Ft. Bragg is to allow Special Ops […]"

Goats si, dogs no? That is what it is?

coolbert.




C-O-L-D.

This is coolbert:

C - clean, O- overheating, L - layers, D - dry. 

Winter warfare. Minus twenty celsius [-20 C.] = minus four fahrenheit [-4 F.]

"SEVEN YEARS NOW OF ON/OFF/SPORADIC CONFLICT AND STAND-OFF IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNKRAINE. TERRITORY AS ANNEXED [?] BY RUSSIA FORTIFICATIONS AND TROOPS ON THE BORDER IN SOME WAYS RESEMBLING THE CONDITIONS OF THE GREAT WAR [WW1]."

"LESSONS IN WINTER WARFARE FROM THE UKRAINIAN WAR ZONE — A CASE STUDY FOR AMERICA’S ARCTIC PIVOT"

More than anything else from the Coffee or Die webzine article consider the spartan conditions troops on both sides of the conflict must endure at the Line of Contact [LoC]. "

"Today [2021], Ukrainian troops remain hunkered down in trenches and improvised forts along a roughly 250-mile-long [400 kilometer], static front line in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region where they weather daily artillery fire from an invasion force that comprises pro-Russian separatists, foreign mercenaries, and Russian regulars."

Ukrainian troop inside a front-line dugout opposite his Russian  counter-part. Image courtesy the Coffee or Die webzine. Conditions indeed resembling something you would have seen at the front during the Great War one-hundred years ago now. HEY, no one ever said war was going to easy did they! Get used to it! That Russian bear is a cold bear.

And NOW an apparent large-scale build-up of troops on the Russian side of the LoC. Gonna blow.

coolbert.



Thursday, April 8, 2021

Controversy.


This is coolbert:

For over seventy years General Eisenhower his handling of the military operations on the Western Front of the Second World War continually called into question. 

This is normally termed the "Broad Front" or "Narrow Front" controversy.

For particulars read this Internet Armchair General article by the famous author Carlo D'Este.

"A Lingering Controversy: Eisenhower’s ‘Broad Front’ Strategy"

"The war of words over the choices by which the war might have been won was, in the end, all but irrelevant. Not only was it politically impossible to have permitted the British to win the war by means of the narrow front, there is ample evidence to question if such a drive, if mounted, could have been logistically sustained beyond the Ruhr."

Eisenhower generally has been seen by some as a "timid" commander [a term highly pejorative in the military context]. Ike preferring the slow-but-steady  approach rather than a risky attempt at one massive concentrated breakthrough offensive [a rupture of the German defenses] with as a possible a very quick end to the war.

Eisenhower also very aware of the Great War and the Hundred Days Offensive.[1918].

One-hundred days at the end of the Great War a SERIES of offensive actions of the allied combatants [British, French, American]. NOT one single military operation going to decide the fate of the war and end the conflict quickly and that understood by everyone to be so. A hard slog for four years was only going to end with a continued hard slog.

Not Montgomery, Bradley or Patton satisfied with the decisions of Ike. Recommendations of the SHAFE planning staff prior even to D-Day suggesting the "broad-front" strategy the best [as is mentioned in the Carlo D'Este article] and in hindsight this seems to be correct.

Great image too thanks to Yousef Karsh.

coolbert.


Joke.

This is coolbert:

NO, IT ISN'T!

From the Internet web site Strategy Page as of a week ago.

"There will always be war and rumors of war." Read the whole article.

"Russia: This Is No Joke"

"April 1, 2021: Russia is once more conducting military exercises near its border with eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian territory it has occupied since 2014. This time the 'training exercises' are more threatening because they involve the equivalent of six combat brigades, accompanied by additional artillery (gun and rocket) units moving to the border as well as a buildup of combat aircraft and warships in the Crimean Peninsula"

SEVEN YEARS NOW OF ON/OFF/SPORADIC CONFLICT AND STAND-OFF IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNKRAINE. TERRITORY AS ANNEXED [?] BY RUSSIA FORTIFICATIONS AND TROOPS ON THE BORDER IN SOME WAYS RESEMBLING THE CONDITIONS OF THE GREAT WAR [WW1]

TROOPS ARE MASSING! TROOPS ARE ALWAYS MASSING!

Read the perspective of the Russian military commentator Pavel Felgenhauer for more details.

coolbert.





Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Setback.

This is coolbert:

From the Internet websites Daily Mail and South Front articles solely devoted to the Palma, Mozambique situation.

1. "Shocking photos of bodies strewn on the ground and desperate 'help' signs fashioned from sheets capture the horror of the ISIS Mozambique massacre that left one Brit dead"

Lots of embedded video well worth watching. Not for the squeamish however. 

Personally I prefer not to use ISIS or ISIL labels to describe the Mozambique insurgents. Islamic State alone perhaps more correct.

2. "MOZAMBIQUE’S CABO DELGADO HAS BEEN PLAGUED BY ISIS FOR YEARS"

National gas production projects worth $60 billion USD now in jeopardy. Expect an international and concerted response as a result? I wait with baited breath as they say.

Personal comments:

* Mozambique prior to Palma I had thought was a 3rd world nation very poor but showing promise.

* International agri-business concerns active and successful in Mozambique.

* Tourism and eco-tourism enterprises also becoming popular with foreign visitors.

* Enormous natural gas production projects I was not aware of.

Forget about it all now? Palma without question a serious setback to the  nation of Mozambique and the region.

coolbert.




MV Saviz.

This is coolbert:

Israeli naval commando unit at work? This might be the start of something big?

From Freeper and thanks to same.

1. "Iranian ship believed to be floating troop base in Red Sea is attacked"

"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — An Iranian cargo ship believed to be a base for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and anchored for years in the Red Sea off Yemen has been attacked, Tehran acknowledged Wednesday. Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the attack — suspected to have been carried out by Israel — on the MV Saviz."

2. Further as reported by an Iranian news agency the attack as described.

"Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency, believed to be close to the Guard, reported that a limpet mine planted on Saviz’s hull caused the blast. A limpet mine is a type of naval mine that is attached to the side of a ship, usually by a diver. It later explodes, and can significantly damage a vessel. Iran did not blame anyone for the attack and said Iranian officials likely would offer more information in the coming days."

Actually a whole bunch of players might be involved in this attack. Hardly without substantial evidence can the attack be solely blamed on Israel unless confirmed without question.

coolbert.




Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Admirals.


This is coolbert:

Once more the Sultan in Angora is up to funny stuff? Funny in a bad way? Funny?

First the high command of the  Air Force was obliterated in one fell swoop. Now the Navy? Admirals as retired but now detained.

"Turkey detains admirals who criticised giant Istanbul canal"

"Turkey has detained 10 retired admirals after they openly criticized a huge Istanbul canal project championed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan."

"Those held were among 104 retired admirals who signed an open letter warning against withdrawal from an international treaty governing use of the strategic Bosphorus Strait."

The proposed Istanbul canal as opposed by a hundred or so RETIRED admirals of the Turkish navy. Some of those protesting admirals now DETAINED.

THAT ISTANBUL CAN AS PROPOSED AN INITIATIE TO BYPASS THE BOSPHORUS. PROVISIONS OF THE MONTREUX CONVENTION AS A CONSEQUENCE WILL BE RENDERED NULL AND VOID?  RESTRICTIONS ON WARSHIPS MOVING TO AND FRO THE BLACK SEA AND MEDITERRANEAN THROUGH THE NARROW BOSPHORUS ELIMINATED?

See previous blog entries the presence of foreign naval contingent the Black Sea a hot button item:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/12/provocation.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/black-sea.html

coolbert.





Monday, April 5, 2021

Corner Brook.


This is coolbert:

More of a continuing and repeated topic. Greater danger and damage done to a submarine while a boat in harbor, docked, not at-sea, undergoing repairs. Very common in fact.

Now, Canadian style HMCS Corner Brook!

Thanks to Lee Berthiaume, the tip from Blazing Cat Fur.

"The Canadian Contractor may have caused permanent damage to Canadian Navy submarine HMCS Corner Brook"

"OTTAWA -- An internal Defence Department report has pulled back the curtain on the damage caused by an errant test on one of Canada's four submarines last year, suggesting some of the damage is permanent and could continue to pose a risk over the long term."

"Obtained by The Canadian Press through Access to Information, the report represents another setback for Canada's four submarines, which have spent more time in repairs than at sea since being bought second-hand from Britain in 1998."

DAMAGE A RUPUTERED MAIN BALLAST TANK. DAMAGED DURING "ROUTINE" TEST! SURE ROUTINE. THEY ALWAYS SAY THAT.

See a previous blog entry [with many additional links] damage to submarines while docked, not-at-sea, moored, very common.

coolbert.





Saturday, April 3, 2021

Brownsville.


This is coolbert:

Thanks to the archives of the New York Times as seen at Freeper posted by Homer Simpson lurid headlines of an alarmist nature.

All this while the nation concentrates [1861] on Fort Sumter.

"HIGHLY IMPORTANT NEWS: TEXAS TO BE RECONQUERED BY MEXICO; IMPORTANT FROM MONTGOMERY: REPORTED REINFORCEMENT OF FORT PICKENS (4/3/1861)"

New York Times archives – Times Machine ^ | 4/3/1861

"GEN. AMPUDIA WITH 3,000 MEXICANS MARCHING ON BROWNSVILLE. NEW-ORLEANS,"

"Tuesday, April 2. Texas advices state that Col. FORD is reliably informed from Matamoras that Gen. AMPUDIA with 3,000 Mexicans is 60 miles off, and marching on Brownsville. AMPUDIA had dispatched expresses with placards and handbills announcing that Texas rightly belonged to Mexico; that she had no longer the support of the Federal Government, and now is the time to retake her."

Intrigue and schemes of various foreign powers [hardly] limited to Mexico] during that period of the American Civil War undeniable. Take advantage of a situation when the American nation having internal division unable to satisfactorily respond to external threat.

coolbert.




USS Pawnee.

This is coolbert:

More news Fort Sumter [1861]. From the archive of the New York Times as reported at the time.

Evacuation Fort Sumter still under consideration. Situation Charleston South Carolina untenable. 

YET ONE MORE SAILING, AMERICAN WARSHIP USS PAWNEE.

"IMPORTANT INTELLIGENCE: THE QUESTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTS; OUR SOUTHERN CORRESPONDENCE: Pen-Photographs of Charleston and the Charlestonian (4/2/1861)"

New York Times archives – Times Machine ^ | 4/2/1861

"WASHINGTON, Monday, April 1."

"THE LAST REPORT ABOUT SUMPTER."

"It is reported that the Pawnee [USS] has been ordered to Charleston to take off Major ANDERSON and his forces. This is not authoritative, but is stated upon apparently good information. It is now quite certain that Fort Sumpter will be evacuated within a few days."

What ever happened to the steamship SS Baltic and Fox USN? Also was on the way to evacuate the garrison.

coolbert:



Caliphate II.

This is coolbert:

Mozambique. Now the Caliphate II.

Here with a gist of observations from an acknowledged African authority the situation Mozambique now acute in the extreme.

* City of Palma totally in the hands of the Islamic State.

Security forces totally routed. In disarray.

* Cabo Delgado region of Mozambique also lost.

* African Caliphate will be declared.

INSURGENTS NOW TRIUMPHANT AND IT SEEMS TOTALLY SO EVEN BEYOND THEIR EXPECTIONS [AS IT WAS IN IRAQ AND  SYRIA PREVIOUSLY].

WE CAN EXPECT MOZAMBIQUE AS THE SECOND ISLAMIC STATE CALIPHATE TO NOW BE A RALLYING POINT FOR WORLD-WIDE JIHAD AND INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM.

See previous relevant and most recent blog entries the topic Mozambique:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2021/03/palma.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2021/03/moz-ii.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2021/03/moz-i.html

P.S.: Again according acknowledged Africa authority the bad guys at Pemba captured intact 1,000+ vehicles plus quantities of munitions.

coolbert.





Friday, April 2, 2021

Vice-Admiral.

 This is coolbert:

"I categorically deny that I have ever had non-consensual sex with anyone...ever" - Vice-Admiral Haydn Edmundson.

ANOTHER CANADIAN MILITARY MAN BEHAVING BADLY?

From the CBC and the  tip courtesy Blazing Cat Fur.

"Senior military commander under investigation after being accused of sexually assaulting subordinate"

"Vice-Admiral Haydn Edmundson is now on indefinite leave with pay"

"Vice-Admiral Haydn Edmundson manages military personnel command, which gives him authority over career consequences for military members found to have engaged in sexual misconduct."

WHO will watch the watchers? That is the question?

And all this AFTER thirty years has passed by. Allegations unproven and ONLY made now?

Even if the deed was done, some sort of statute-of-limitations exists? An illustrious career might come to a rather sad end nonetheless.

CANADIANS ARE ALWAYS DESCRIBED AS BEING SUCH NICE PEOPLE!

coolbert.



Thursday, April 1, 2021

Intervention.

This is coolbert:

Once again thanks to Freeper and the tip from Homer Simpson. As reported and extracted from the archives of the New York Times.

"NATIONAL AFFAIRS: The Gulf Forts to be Held at all Hazards; Editorials-Foreign Intervention in American Affairs, A Cab Reform; Negro Regiments to be Raised (4/1/1861)"

New York Times archives – Times Machine ^ | 4/1/1861

"WASHINGTON, Sunday, March 31, 1861."

With particular regard to the presence of foreign interventionists during that time of crisis prior to the firing on Fort Sumter by the secessionist Confederates:

"Foreign Intervention in American Affairs."

"The startling intelligence which we published on Friday from our Paris correspondent in regard to the preparations be made by European Powers to send out a fleet of war steamers 'for observation' on our coasts, and perhaps, in certain contingencies, to take a had in our Intersectional quarrel, - - confirmed too"

. . . . 

"French fleets in American waters - - Spanish cruisers hovering in our Gulf - - English men of war along our coasts, - - significant rumors from France of her assuming new relations with her old province of Louisiana - - burning, secret sympathies of England with her enslaved black 'men  and brother' - - menacing attitude of the Spanish government"

Etc.

RUSSIANS TO THE RESCUE? SEE PREVIOUS BLOG ENTRY REGARDING RUSSIAN NAVAL PRESENCE DURING THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR:

European  powers keenly aware of the secessionist movement [1861] in the United States and seeking to take advantage of disharmony and turmoil.

coolbert.