Endgame.

This is coolbert:

Continuing and concluding, extacted tweets from a thread, analysis by Mr. Galeev the poor performance of the Russian army, Ukraine Conflict. 

Russian ruling elite Putin and oligarchs in big trouble!

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"Initial Putin's assumptions were wrong. He launched invasion expecting no resistance. 5th Department of FSB which worked on Ukraine reported to Putin that Ukraine is just a cosplay and everyone switches to us the moment we come. Why? They told Putin whatever he wanted to hear"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"At this point director of 5th department Sergey Beseda and his deputy are under house arrest. They are charged with embezzlement and 'low quality intelligence data' he provided. Beseda hugely exaggerated pro-Russian sentiments and lied to Putin regarding the prospects of invasion"

See my previous blog entry: https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/03/coercion.html

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"That's why Naryshkin, Chief of Foreign Intelligence Service publicly tried to reassure Putin from escalation. He knew Putin's assumptions are wrong. Putin rebuked him and Naryshkin agreed to everything. Notice how he is trembling and stuttering. He already knows they'r all doomed"

See previous blog entry: https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/03/iw-ukraine_17.html

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"At this point everyone with half a brain knows Russia lost. Watch Lavrov's body language in Antalya. Russia tried to project strong implacable image but trembling hands and nervous moves of its top officials including Putin himself speak otherwise. They are mortally scared"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"A loyalist TV host Vladimir Solovyov is Putin's top and highest paid propagandist. For many years Solovyov launched jingoist propaganda, assured everyone of Russian supremacy over anyone including ofc its neighbours and was lavishly rewarded by the regime"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"That's a real time TV talk between Solovyov and Kedmi - jingoist pundits who always preached Russia would win. They're devastated and can't come up with anything slightly optimistic. Solovyov tells that continuing this operation will lead to Russia's destruction. Watch it all"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"Regime knows they're fucked. Rats are already escaping from the sinking ship in huge numbers. The problem is - the larger ones can't escape, nobody's gonna accept them. Only the small fish can. Very Orthodox and patriotic MP Milonov escaped to Armenia for example"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"Same with oligarchs. Bankers Fridman and Aven are sanctioned and can't leave Russia. But most of their top managers already did (reportedly mostly to the US). Oligarchs are doomed, but their henchmen who were prudent enough to get Western visas or residence are leaving en masse"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"Metallurgy tycoon Mordashov, owner of Severstal, always projected a very rational, technocratic, no nonsense image. He convened all his top managers who are still in Russia and gave an hour long speech, using the words "to pray/prayer" nine times. Never did before"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"Officials working in economic policy have very grim view on Russian perspectives. As minister of industry and trade Manturov formulated 'import substitution failed because of inability to get foreign components'. That kinda sums up the economic history of Putinism"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"This doesn't meat the regime is delegitimised. I'd say about 2/3 of population support Z-campaign. Loyalists are far more numerous and outspoken than dissidents. They're also much dumber: most of Z folk is just low IQ who don't get what's gonna happen. Smarter ones left already"

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* Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Mar 12

"Listen to this sermon which reflects a message that has an increasing mass support. He's preaching for annexing Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Georgia. "And what is gonna happen with Baltic countries - you can imagine yourself". Public cheers the escalation and imperial expansion"

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Inference: Not only a failed offensive but now a threat to the ruling regime and the Presidency of Vlad? Those SAM's flights I have blogged about an indication that oligarchs trying to flee to safer quarters. Hand-writing on the wall and all. We might even see a Stalinist style purge?

coolbert.