This is coolbert:
Analysis from the Internet web site of the Israeli military historian/expert/theoretician Martin van Creveld.
The Ukraine Crisis.
POSTED ON FEBRUARY 17, 2022 BY MARTIN VAN CREVELD.
"Months after the Ukrainian crisis broke out, the long-expected Russian invasion of that country still had not taken place. Depending on which analyst you choose, there are many possible explanations for this."
AS TO THE "MANY POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS" READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE.
Also read further the role that deception plays during such crisis. When the adversary seems to be displaying a lack of resolve and rather a willingness to find a peaceful end to a stand-off crisis, that is when the foe is most likely to attack. [with numerous historical instances elaborated on by Professor Martin]
EGO COGITO ERGO SUM.