Dice I.

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The latest comments on the Ukraine Conflict. Thanks to the esteemed Israeli Professor Van Creveld. Thank you in all cases to the Professor.

"The Iron Dice Keep Rolling"

POSTED ON MAY 26, 2022 BY MARTIN VAN CREVELD

As extracted those key points. Devoted readers to the blog are encouraged strongly to read the article in entirety for themselves.

"A question about the Ukrainian War that many Westerners have been asking—and that must have been haunting those hard-faced men in the Kremlin ever since they started their offensive on 24 February—is what they, the hard-faced men, have been doing wrong. Also, what the Ukrainians, waging war under the remarkable leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have been doing right."

"What the Russians have been doing wrong" [?]

* "First, the Russians have greatly underestimated the Ukrainians’ determination and willingness to fight."

* "Second, and possibly because of the above, the Russians did not mobilize sufficient forces."

* "Third, it would seem that the Russian General Staff was unable to decide what the most important objective (Schwerpunkt) of their offensive was going to be."

"schwerpunkt: (military) main point, main target; point upon which the most effort is concentrated (e.g. during an attack)" 

* "Fourth, the Russians chose the wrong season for launching their offensive: first snow, making movement difficult, then thaw, then mud."

* "Fifth, given the scale of preparations and the time it took to make them there was no question of the Russians enjoying the benefit of surprise."

* "Sixth, as the enormous traffic jam on the roads leading south from Russia to Kiev showed, logistic planning was totally inadequate. The outcome seems to have been on-and-off shortages of fuel and ammunition (which, in any modern war, form the bulk of the troops’ requirements) and even food."

* "Seventh, contrary to expectations the Russians did not make extensive use of their superior air force." 

* "Finally, a 'cyberwar Pearl Harbor,' as it has sometimes been called, did not materialize." 

My comment:

* The plan is the base from which all change is made. The original plan in my estimation was for the heliborne force to capture and hold the airfield near Kiev. Airlanding troops with armor would then reinforce and the contingent would begin the grand march on Kiev, with a quick and easy victory. The leaders of the Ukrainian central government having been either killed or fled, a puppet regime then installed, capitulation of the Ukrainian complete. Span of time short.

* Failure too of the Russian also greatly resembles the Winter War between Finland and the Soviet Union, 1940. Soviets at that time very confident of an easy victory, a walk-over that never materialized. Underestimating your enemy hardly a good thing during a time of war. Obvious.

coolbert.