Ringtausch.

This is coolbert:

Here we go again. Weapon swaps to the Ukrainian military from NATO complications preventing transfer in a direct manner.

From "UKRAINIAN NEWS" the story by Таня Герасимова 31 MAY 2022.

"Greece Will Supply Ukraine With Tanks In Exchange For German Equipment - Scholz"

"Greece is going to supply Ukraine with Soviet-era tanks instead of modern German-made infantry fighting vehicles, said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Politico Europe correspondent Hans von der Burchard reported this on Twitter by on Tuesday, May 31."

“Breaking: Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany will implement 'Ringtausch' tank swap with Greece, which will deliver older Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine and get modern German infantry fighting vehicles as replacement."

"At that, Reuters reports that Scholz didn't give any details as to what kind of infantry fighting vehicles Berlin will hand over to Greece - or what kind of weapons Athens will pass on to Kyiv."

The Greek army DOES NOT HAVE any sort of Soviet-era armor [tanks] in their inventory. The Greek army DOES HAVE Soviet-era infantry-fighting vehicles of the BMP-1 OST [East German?] that evidently have been modified to carry a 23 mm cannon.

NOT TANKS AS WE UNDERSTAND THAT WORD TANK! AN INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLE [IFV].

This should be understood as part of the Marder controversy? Germans going to send Marder IFV to the Ukrainian but sans ammunition as per contractual agreement with the Swiss?

coolbert.

Untold.

This is coolbert:

Case study? The Ukraine Conflict? The Battle for Kiev.

"The Untold Story of the Battle for Kyiv"

As seen at "Small Wars Journal" By Dan Rice, MBA, MS, MSeD 05/31/2022.

"The world expected the Russian Army to defeat the Ukrainian Army within days. Russian President Vladimir Putin, United States Senate expert testimony, and most of the west, all expected Kyiv to fall within a few days under the weight of the enormous and powerful Russian army. The Russians thought it was going to be quick, but the Russians forgot that the enemy has a vote." 

"Instead of collapsing in the face of a Russian invasion along multiple avenues of approach – the drive to Kyiv being a primary one – the Ukrainian Army traded space for time by fighting a withdrawing action against a far larger invading Russian army and fell all the way back to within the city limits of the national capital where it eventually repelled the Russian onslaught. Had Putin’s army taken Kyiv, President Zelensky’s government could have collapsed, and the Ukraine may have lost the war.  On the contrary, however, the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians successfully defended its capital in a battle that may likely be taught as a case study for military leaders for generations once it is fully understood."

Coup de main the Ukrainian capital did fail. The Ukrainian Army resisting the invader in a way that was anticipated.

My perspective is that Russian did intend to seize the capital city quick fashion and put the leaders of the central government to rout. A puppet of the Russians was to declare the new leadership was taking control and the Ukrainian military people should no longer resist the Russian invasion for their own good.

The whole operation was going to take two to three days at most. Sullen but complaint Ukrainians accepting their fate.

Devoted readers to the blog are strongly encouraged to read the entire article.

“The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men. Gang aft a-gley”. - Robert Burns. Go wrong indeed.

coolbert.

MLRS/HIMARS.

This is coolbert:

"We are not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia"

This is the correct decision. Without question.

From the controlled [?] Russian Internet media RT 30 May, 2022.

"US won't send Ukraine long-range rockets – Biden"

"Earlier reports had suggested Washington was likely to provide the equipment for Kiev’s fight against Russia"

"The US will not supply Ukraine with long-distance missile systems that are capable of striking deep into Russian territory, President Joe Biden explained on Monday. Asked by reporters about the prospect of such deliveries, Biden flatly rejected the possibility."

"Last week, multiple US media outlets reported that the White House was considering sending M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS rocket systems to Ukraine, which can have a range of up to 500km [about three-hundred miles]. The M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) are two versions of US-made rocket artillery systems that can fire the same types of rockets. The advanced weaponry would have allowed the Ukrainian forces to strike deep into Russian territory and potentially target major cities"

HIMARS in particular with very long range and can be deadly accurate with GPS guidance. And YES no matter what agreement made with the Ukrainian regarding a transfer of such weapons from the USA you could never have 100 % confidence some sort of Ukrainian use in desperate circumstance to bombard Russian targets within the borders of Russian would NOT occur.

Again, YES, the right decision.

coolbert.

Remains.

This is coolbert:

Here with an aspect of war few want to talk about. Burial of the battlefield dead, military and civilian both. 

1. "Russians hauling corpses washed from graves to Mariupol supermarket - the mayors adviser"

Sun, May 29, 2022, 3:17 AM

 From Ukrayinska Pravda [Ukrainian Truth] story by ROMAN PETRENKO – 29 May 2022.

"The Russian occupiers in Mariupol have hauled corpses washed out of graves during the restoration of water supply to a supermarket, said the mayor's adviser Petro Andryushchenko."

"Quote from Andryushchenko: 'In the premises of the 'Shchyryi kum' supermarket in the Livoberezhny district on Svoboda Avenue, the Russians have set up a corpse dump. Literally.'"

"The Russians are bringing the bodies of the dead here, bodies which were washed out of graves and partially exhumed in an attempt to restore water supply. They are just dumping them like garbage."

"'There is a catastrophic shortage of people to bury the corpses and of power for even makeshift mortuaries. To such an extent that a separate recruitment campaign for pathologists has been launched in Moscow.'"

Mariupol I imagine the remains of military and civilian dead to be policed and buried for some time to come. An essential task as unpalatable as it is.

Even more:

2. "Tending Russia's Dead as They Pile Up in Ukraine"

From "The New York Times" story by Valerie Hopkins May 30, 2022.

"KHARKIV, Ukraine — They lie in white and black bags at 20 degrees below zero Celsius, but the stench is still overpowering. Filled with the bodies of 62 Russian soldiers, the bags are stacked in a refrigerated train car in a secret location on the outskirts of Ukraine’s second-largest city. A spry, elderly train worker spun open the vaultlike door to reveal the bloodied bags as the scent hung in the damp air."

“'We are collecting these bodies for sanitary reasons, because dogs have been eating them,' said a Ukrainian soldier who would only give his call sign, Summer. 'Eventually, we will return them to their loved ones.'”

Summer said many of the bodies had been lying in the open for a month or longer before his unit found them. His two-man team works to identify the soldiers by their faces, tattoos and belongings. They also take a DNA swab from each corpse to determine whether any are potential war-crimes suspects."

Read further the Graves Registration Units from the era of World War Two:

"It was important to bury all the dead primarily for health concerns. Decomposing bodies out in the open spread disease and lowered troop morale. It was better that the troops didn't encounter the remains of Soldier Dead very often, lest the fear and panic they already felt increase, making them unable to do their job effectively" 

Dead bodies as collected buried with a degree of honor as soon as possible. Repatriation and exchange of the battlefield remains often a give-and-take concession item.

During the Second Indo-China War the VC/NVA would strip a dead American soldier of his ID and uniform and bury the man in a secret location. To be used later as bargaining chips during peace negotiations.

coolbert.

Elements.

This is coolbert:

Further as I can best determine the armored Russian train Ukraine as attacked by saboteurs. NOT the TRAIN itself but rather the tracks it seems.

See the images purportedly of the Russian armored train with my comments. Armored train in a sense but not exactly so.

An armored train consisting of conventional "rolling stock" [box cars], a diesel pusher engine, An armored railway car preceded by a flatcar. Not an armored train fully so from top to bottom as would have been the case in WW1 or WW2.

Armored train as consisting of two armored elements. Flat car in the front with distinctive painting. followed by the armored weapons portion of the train. Pusher diesel behind the armored railway car. Flatcar and the armored section of the train always operating as one? Flatcar passing over contact mines laid on the track by saboteurs detonates mines without any damage to the following rolling stock.

Yet one more view the armored train. From left to right the conventional rolling stock, the diesel pusher engine, the armored section of the train, the flatcar barely visible. Two Soviet era ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft artillery cannon mounted with a man atop the armored section of the train presumably able to wield a MANPAD [man-portable air-defense].

Close-up view of the 23 mm ZU-23 anti-aircraft artillery cannon. Two per armored section of the train. Can given good protection against attack helicopter or low-flying ground attack aircraft.

Comments:

* Armored portions of the train to protect value cargo as carried by rolling stock. I imagine the train also functioning would a flak train from the era of WW2. Protect vital point targets. Military headquarters, bridges, tunnel, manufacturing facilities, etc.

* That diesel pusher locomotive able to function independently totally without regard to the apparent electrified railway system currently use in the area of Ukraine, Donetsk, Luhansk.

* See also for your edification those attacks on British trains during the Boer War of 1900 paying attention to measures as taken by the British to protect the rail system from guerrilla/partisan attack.

coolbert.

Culmination?

This is coolbert:

As goes Severodonetsk so goes the Ukraine Conflict?

So is the analysis of one American think tank. From yahoo.com as reported by the ISW. Institute for the Study of War.

"Russian offensive likely to culminate when battle for Severodonetsk ends, US think-tank says"

May 29, 2022.

"Russian tanks carry out assault operations in the area of Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Oblast on May 24, 2022"

"ISW says Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin."

"It is noted that the Russians are making territorial gains and may succeed in taking the city and areas further west, while the Ukrainian military may well suffer a significant tactical defeat in the coming days if Severodonetsk falls, although such an outcome is by no means certain, and the Russian attacks may well stall again."

"The ISW assessment says that Russian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective."

With Severdonetsk captured the Russian will announce Luhansk secure [along with Donbass]. Objectives of Vlad minimalist in nature will be achieved and a cessation to hostilities commence? Occupation troops will begin the processing Luhansk and Donetsk of "threatening" Ukrainian civilian elements thought to be a threat, the stalemated situation as existed since 2014 will begin all over again?

coolbert.

Tipping.

This is coolbert:

Consider this to be a terrorist alert of the highest possible level of concern for the Israeli? 

 From DEBKAfile May 30, 2022.

"Rare publication of Israeli air defense alert follows concrete Iranian threat. Five prominent figures named"

"Israel’s unusual official announcement on May 30 of its heightened air defense alert was triggered by intelligence affirming Iran’s determination to make good this time on a vow of revenge for the shooting of Col. Hassan Kodaei on May 23.  It was reinforced on Monday afternoon, when Iranian media named five Israel intelligence and tech experts who with their families and colleagues are now in Iran’s sights"

[. . . ]

Iranian response to the assassination of Iranian Colonel Kodaei + the drone attack on the Iranian Parchin facility going to be big time revenge?

"The Kodeai hit was cited on Monday by Revolutionary Guards commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami when he pledged to avenge his death during a visit to the victim’s parents. However, a subsequent attack two days later – this one on the Parchin military complex, that was attributed by American sources to Israel – was the tipping point for Tehran."

[....]

Threats of a dire nature by the Iranian against Israeli targets rarely [?] coming to fruition. However this is not the case this time?

Further from DEBKA:

"This time is different in that Iran’s threats – including and a real threat to Israelis visiting Turkey – are being taken with extreme seriousness on three scores:"

* "On Saturday, Iran opened up a secret underground depot housing some 100 advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (see photo) to demonstrate its capacity to settle accounts with Israel on a large scale. It will be hard to back down on vows of revenge after this display."

* "This and other intelligence strongly indicate that Iran will not be content with a small operation but is rather bent on inflicting heavy damage."

* "Security sources infer this additionally from the restraint displayed by the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the face of Israel’s Flag Parade on Jerusalem Day despite threats of rocket fire and other payback. Both were apparently directed from Tehran to hold their fire and wait to join the multi-front assault coming to Israel."

Sounds bad doesn't it? Yes it does! HVT Israeli [high-value targets] beware the drone.

coolbert.

Culp USA.

This is coolbert:

"Bomb Techs Without Borders was founded to prevent casualties caused by landmines, IEDs, and other explosive remnants of war. We will accomplish this mission by leveraging innovative methods and technologies to conduct safety education, raise awareness, and build clearance capacity."

Here during bad times a good news story. Culp USA [Ret.] Ukraine doing yeoman duty.

"Retired Special Forces officer [USA] comes out of retirement to help in Ukraine."

Story by Christian Smith, Hendersonville Times-News May 29, 2022.

"After seeing the destruction caused by the Russian invasion, a local man's convictions brought him out of retirement and from Waynesville to Ukraine, where he is training and assisting in the removal of dangerous munitions."

MISSION EXPLOSIVE ORDNANCE DISPOSAL [EOD]. DEFUSE OR ELIMINATE AS A THREAT UNEXPLODED ORDNANCE [UXB] UKRAINE.

"Retired U.S. Army Special Forces Lt. Col. John Culp l[sixty-nine years old!!] left the U.S. on April 5 to volunteer with Bomb Techs Without Borders, a non-profit dedicated to preventing deaths by landmines, IEDs and other explosive remnants of war."

[....]

"Culp's army career began as an Explosive Ordinance Disposal Technician, and he spent much of his time working with and training others on the disposal of explosives. In Kharkiv, he said he was also training an International Legion Unit, a collection of volunteers from other countries"

I can well imagine the landscape of Ukraine to be littered with UXB for decades to come. Even one-hundred years after the end of the Great War French farmers still killed while tilling their fields. Ukraine hardly to going to be an exception.

coolbert.

UAV Zagros.

This is coolbert:

 From DEBKAfile May 28, 2022.

An obvious threatening response to the most recent Israeli [?] combat drone [kamikaze] attack the Iranian nuclear facility Parchin.

"In show of muscle, Iran uncovers 100 drones at secret base in Zagros Mts"

"A select group of reporters was on Saturday, May 28 shown more than a hundred military drones lined up in rows, after being flown blindfold[ed] for 45 minutes to a secret base buried deep under Iran’s Zagros Mountains. Upon landing, the group was greeted by Iran’s army chief. Maj Gen Abdolrahim Mousavi, who told them: 'There is no doubt that the drones of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces are the region’s most powerful.' He went on to say: 'Our capability to upgrade drones is unstoppable.'"

"DEBKAfile’s military sources find that the secret base was uncovered as a threat by Tehran to wield its powerful UAVs in revenge for the two recent strikes on highly sensitive resources – both of which were attributed to Israel, although unacknowledged by any source"

Images show drones of an apparent high-degree of sophistication. Hundreds of such drones in a massive attack swarm operation CAN overwhelm Israeli air defense? That is what the Iranian wants the Israeli to think. And BELIEVE!

coolbert.

Mozart II.

This is coolbert:

More on Mozart Group. Retired military from a variety of nations friendly to the Ukrainian cause. Thanks to Sandboxx.

1. GET YOUR DAILY UPDATED [?] TOP SECRET briefing the Ukraine Conflict.

"MOZART GROUP"

"Led by a retired Marine Colonel, the primary mission of the Mozart Group is to increase the capability and sustainable capacity of the Ukrainian military consistent with U.S. foreign policy. In addition, the Mozart Group aims to protect vulnerable segments of the civilian population in Ukraine."

"Sandboxx News has partnered with the Mozart Group to bring you exclusive news, analysis, and updates from inside Ukraine's fight for sovereignty. Here, you can find daily updates about the tactical situation and unique insights into the reality of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, directly from American veterans operating inside the embattled nation. We will also be publishing other important updates about the war in Ukraine right here."

Also from Sandboxx by Stavros Atlamazoglou | May 16, 2022.

2. "THE 4 REASONS WHY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IS FAILING IN UKRAINE"

"The Russian military is failing in astonishing ways in Ukraine. Three months after the invasion of Ukraine started, the Russian military has failed to achieve any of its primary objectives."

"The Russian military is failing in astonishing ways in Ukraine. Three months after the invasion of Ukraine started, the Russian military has failed to achieve any of its primary objectives."

"A recent assessment by the Pentagon has identified several key reasons why the renewed Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is failing."

[....]

"According to the statements of a senior U.S. defense official, the Pentagon believes the renewed Russian advance in eastern Ukraine is failing for four primary reasons."

* Reluctance to advance.

      "First, Russian troops won’t advance ahead of artillery."

* Incapability to fight off roads.

      "Second, the Russian mechanized formations are stuck on paved roads because of the spring mud that has been formed by the melting of ice and snow."

* "Third, the Russian military hasn’t fixed its logistical issues despite the renewed offensive in the Donbas."

* Breakdown in discipline.

      "Fourth — and this is undoubtedly the most interesting reason — some Russian units aren’t following orders."

Russians now if we are to believe media reports now advancingly SLOWLY but STEADILY in the Donbass. Overwhelming massive force used in an overwhelming and massive manner can go a long way to success. Obvious.

I suggest devoted readers to the blog make a bookmark or favorite of the MOZART Internet web site and check daily for updates.

coolbert.

Happening.

This is coolbert:

From DEBKAfile as was originally [?] reported by the New York Times.

Big stuff?

"NYT: Iran’s Parchin nuclear site was hit by suicide drones"

May 28, 2022.

"Quadcopter suicide drones launched from inside Iran this week attacked the key Parchin military and nuclear complex, according to anonymous Iranian and US sources cited by the New York Times.  The attack in which an engineer was killed was officially described by Iran’s defense ministry as an 'incident.' The statement said one of the ministry’s research units in the Parchin area was hit and the engineer was a 'martyr.'”

"Iran is known to develop missile, nuclear and drone technology at Parchin. IAEA inspectors are routinely denied access to the site which lies about 50km [about thirty-one miles] southeast of Tehran."

NEED I SAY THAT ATTACKING A NUCLEAR FACILITY WITH KINETIC WEAPONS [SUICIDE DRONES] CAN MEAN A RELEASE OF MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF RADIOACTIVITY INTO THE ATMOSPHERE! I THINK NOT! AND THE PREVAILING WINDS SOUTHEAST OF TEHRAN ARE?

The noted blogger Spengler [David Goldman] rates DEBKAfile as UNRELIABLE under all circumstances. I am not so sure that is so.

coolbert.

Misadventure.

This is coolbert:

As extracted a paragraph from a very recent Strategy Page article.

Artillery-centric Russian army "developments".

"Artillery: Unexpected Developments In Ukraine"

In with the unguided, out with the guided. 

Telltow Canal Berlin 1945 all over again?

"The new and still current plan [Russian] is to use lots of unguided artillery shells and rockets to bombard urban areas, especially civilians. This massed firepower and the dwindling supply of guided weapons, especially the long-range ones, were used against military targets in the east (Donbass) and along the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. This lowered Russian casualties while increasing those of the Ukrainians. It also means slower advances as well as increasingly effective counter-attacks [?] by Ukrainian forces. The Russian attacks on civilians led to more Ukrainians in Russian controlled areas turning to partisan warfare. This sort of thing is an ancient Ukrainian tradition that makes civilians even more of a target. That is less of an obstacle when the Russians are already killing lots of Ukrainian civilians. The Russian response against civilians believed supporting local partisans are so similar to German methods used against partisans throughout occupied Europe that the Russians are taking a major hit in their propaganda campaign to the Russian people that Russian troops are fighting Nazi Ukrainians. The partisans and their civilian supporters still have their cellphones to covertly record Russian war-crimes. The Russians realized this and made it a capital crime for Ukrainian civilians to possess a cellphone that can operate with Ukrainian cellphone networks. That doesn’t stop civilians from making videos of these atrocities, it just takes a little longer for the videos to reach the outside world, including Russia, where a growing number of civilians are openly protesting the war and more are attacking the war effort, usually by setting fires to recruiting stations and storage areas for military fuel and ammunition needed by Russian forces in Ukraine. Russia is a major oil producer and still has large stocks of elderly (Cold War era) shells and unguided rockets that are often dangerous to use. The chemicals used in shells and rockets become unstable and unreliable as it gets older. This causes some casualties for Russian artillerymen but not so many make their job as dangerous as troops in the combat units or transportation units carrying these fuel and ammo supplies to front line troops. Some of the Russian troops handing this unstable ammo notice when shells or rockets show signs of dangerous degradation and abandon it rather than risk using it. That’s what more and more Russians want to do with the Russian misadventures in Ukraine."

Frustration with slow advance Russian forces Ukraine changes to "the plan" the old Russian steamroller? Massive force used massively inexorably will result in victory?

coolbert.

Freerunner.

This is coolbert:

I like this and expected devoted readers to the blog to do so also.

Major Gerald, French Foreign Legion [FFL] versus a freerunner/parkour enthusiast, FFL obstacle course. WHO will win?

"ASSAULT COURSE : LEGION VS PARKOUR!"

- The freerunner Clément Dumais run again[st] Major Gerald from Foreign Legion.

"For this new challenge, professional free runner Clément Dumais accepted to run against Major Gérald from the French Foreign Legion on his track, an assault obstacle course. Who will master this particularly trying course?"

Freerunning and Parkour totally new concepts I had never heard of. Many devoted readers to the blog I expect the same also.

"Freerunning is an athletic and acrobatic discipline incorporating an aesthetic element, and can be considered either a sport or a performance art, or both. Freerunning is similar to parkour, from which it is derived, but emphasizes artistry over efficiency and speed. Freerunning involves interacting with physical obstacles in creative ways, such as by climbing, jumping or running; the obstacles may be purpose-built or may be part of a pre-existing natural or man-made environment. The movements are usually adopted from other sports, such as gymnastics, tricking or breakdancing. Freerunners can create their own moves, flows and lines in different landscapes. Practitioners of freerunning usually do parkour as well."

"Parkour  . ,. .  is an athletic training discipline in which practitioners . . . attempt to get from point A to point B in the most fluid way possible, without assisting equipment and in the fastest and most efficient way possible. With roots in military obstacle course training and martial arts, parkour includes running, climbing, swinging, vaulting, jumping, plyometrics, rolling, and quadrupedal movement—whatever is suitable for a given situation."

See the video courtesy You Tube:

"If your French is not up to where it should be, just click the settings part of the video in YouTube, then subtitle/cc, then autotranslate, then English, and that will work for you just fine."

French Foreign Legion [FFL] can be very selective with regard to recruiting and acceptance of wannabee legionnairres. Intake personnel carefully screened and expected to have a degree of physical fitness and aptitude demonstrably so prior to induction. Other military services of other nations also demanding in this regard.

Those FFL troops desiring to rise to the rank of sergeant in the FFL must complete that course in three minutes fifteen seconds!! Amazing.

Major Gerald a very physical specimen, wearing combat boots while completing the obstacle course. Each of those boots weighing about three pounds [1.3 kilograms]. Major Gerald also knows the various techniques as applicable to the course.

Major Gerald FFL has a whole series of such You Tube video on the Internet. So see for yourself.

coolbert.

Dice II.

This is coolbert:

Continuing and concluding the latest comments, Professor van Creveld the Ukraine Conflict.

"The Iron Dice Keep Rolling"

POSTED ON MAY 26, 2022 BY MARTIN VAN CREVELD

Extracted the key points and thanks once more to the Professor.

"What the Ukrainians have been doing right"

* "First, though both sides have relied on semi-regular militias (including, in the Russian case, mercenaries) to do part of their fighting, this form of military organization has played a greater part on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian one."

* "Second, whereas the invaders must generate their own intelligence, the Ukrainians can receive theirs from almost every man, woman and child in the country." 

* "Third, the Ukrainians have been making unexpectedly good use of modern weapons, especially the drones needed for in-depth reconnaissance behind the front."

* "Fourth, on the whole they have not tried to stop the Russians by waging large sale warfare, army against army, in the open."

* "Finally, while the destruction inflicted on many of Ukraine’s cities has been terrible, wherever possible the Ukrainian military did not fight to the last man and the last bullet."

As with regard to the final point, perhaps only with the exception of Mariupol, the Ukrainian has NOT fought urban combat in the classical and most brutal of  fashion, block to block, house to house, room to room, etc. Russian artillery-centric military force in contrast blasting their way through opposition, the paradigm the crossing of the Telltow Canal 1945 repeated over and over!

coolbert.

Dice I.

This is coolbert:

The latest comments on the Ukraine Conflict. Thanks to the esteemed Israeli Professor Van Creveld. Thank you in all cases to the Professor.

"The Iron Dice Keep Rolling"

POSTED ON MAY 26, 2022 BY MARTIN VAN CREVELD

As extracted those key points. Devoted readers to the blog are encouraged strongly to read the article in entirety for themselves.

"A question about the Ukrainian War that many Westerners have been asking—and that must have been haunting those hard-faced men in the Kremlin ever since they started their offensive on 24 February—is what they, the hard-faced men, have been doing wrong. Also, what the Ukrainians, waging war under the remarkable leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have been doing right."

"What the Russians have been doing wrong" [?]

* "First, the Russians have greatly underestimated the Ukrainians’ determination and willingness to fight."

* "Second, and possibly because of the above, the Russians did not mobilize sufficient forces."

* "Third, it would seem that the Russian General Staff was unable to decide what the most important objective (Schwerpunkt) of their offensive was going to be."

"schwerpunkt: (military) main point, main target; point upon which the most effort is concentrated (e.g. during an attack)" 

* "Fourth, the Russians chose the wrong season for launching their offensive: first snow, making movement difficult, then thaw, then mud."

* "Fifth, given the scale of preparations and the time it took to make them there was no question of the Russians enjoying the benefit of surprise."

* "Sixth, as the enormous traffic jam on the roads leading south from Russia to Kiev showed, logistic planning was totally inadequate. The outcome seems to have been on-and-off shortages of fuel and ammunition (which, in any modern war, form the bulk of the troops’ requirements) and even food."

* "Seventh, contrary to expectations the Russians did not make extensive use of their superior air force." 

* "Finally, a 'cyberwar Pearl Harbor,' as it has sometimes been called, did not materialize." 

My comment:

* The plan is the base from which all change is made. The original plan in my estimation was for the heliborne force to capture and hold the airfield near Kiev. Airlanding troops with armor would then reinforce and the contingent would begin the grand march on Kiev, with a quick and easy victory. The leaders of the Ukrainian central government having been either killed or fled, a puppet regime then installed, capitulation of the Ukrainian complete. Span of time short.

* Failure too of the Russian also greatly resembles the Winter War between Finland and the Soviet Union, 1940. Soviets at that time very confident of an easy victory, a walk-over that never materialized. Underestimating your enemy hardly a good thing during a time of war. Obvious.

coolbert.

Unidentified.

This is coolbert:

Normally these type of launches would require a NOTAM to be issued. Aircraft stay out of the area!!

"A NOTAM is a notice containing information essential to personnel concerned with flight operations but not known far enough in advance to be publicized by other means. It states the abnormal status of a component of the National Airspace System (NAS) – not the normal status."

NO NOTAM!

"Watch: Mysterious South China Sea Missile Launch Came Dangerously Close To Commercial Airliner"

From the Internet web site "Zero Hedge" the article BY TYLER DURDEN MAY 27.

"An unknown foreign military in southeast Asia has reportedly test launched an SLBM, or submarine-launched ballistic missile, which appears to have endangered a nearby commercial aircraft full of people. Stunning video taken from a Cathay Pacific Boeing 777 as it flew over the South China Sea just as the unidentified submarine launched the missile shows the airliner remarkably close. The Drive reports that it was likely a test of either the Chinese or South Korean military, but not even the precise date of the event has been confirmed at this point"

"Twitter user @jchovernut, a pilot for U.S.-based airline Allegiant Air and a veteran of the U.S. Navy's submarine community, posted the video, seen below, online on Tuesday. 'They were over the South China Sea & were issued a last-minute hectic call from ATC: 'turn left 90 degrees immediately!!,'' according to one Tweet accompanying the video."

See the twitter video showing the missile from launch as it ascends: https://twitter.com/i/status/1529201510533550080

coolbert.

Spike.

This is coolbert:

Appeal to the Israeli falls on deaf ears as they say?

Think here more so the German connection!

Israel first and understood to be so with good reason. Maintenance of neutrality during the Ukraine Conflict foremost to the Israeli.

From "The New Voice of Ukraine" May 26, 2022.

"Israel rejects US request to approve missile supplies to Ukraine"

"Ukraine will not receive Spike anti-tank missiles"

"According to the publication, the U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl, met with the Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Defense, Amir Eshel, and raised questions about the Biden administration's efforts to entice countries around the world to supply Ukraine with weapons."

"According to Axios’ sources, Kahl asked Eshel whether Israel would give permission to Germany to transfer Spike anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, to which he was refused and informed that Israel would supply Ukraine with only non-lethal military equipment."

Israeli anti-tank guided-missile [Spike] as sold to the German but contractual agreements only allow transfer to 3rd parties with explicit permission of the Israeli. Permission not granted.

See previous blog entry as germane to the topic of 3rd party weapons transfers:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/04/neutrality.html

coolbert.

Corridor.

This is coolbert:

From the controlled [?] Internet web site "South Front" details of that Russian proposal to allow grain shipments to proceed from Ukrainian and [?] Russian ports.

"UKRAINIAN SEAPORTS TO BECOME FIRST BATTLEFIELD OF WWIII"

With terms and generosity the Ukrainian seaports NEED NOT become the first battlefield of the WWIII. Let us hope cooler heads and reasonableness will prevail.

"The ports of Ukraine are of geopolitical and strategic importance, at least because they are a large transport hub in Europe. 70 foreign ships have been blocked at six Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Mykolaiv, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odesa, and Yuzhny)."

Specifically defined mine-free corridors have been established with times allowed for ships transit as touted?

"The corridors for the civilian vessels willing to leave the Ukrainian ports are secured by the Russian Navy on a daily basis from 8:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. At the same time, the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) granted no security for civilian ships, so there is still a danger of entering the Black Sea. Moreover, not all mines in the Black Sea have been defused and some are still drifting in the waters."

"On May 25, the Russian Defense Ministry managed to open the first humanitarian corridor for foreign ships from Mariupol. The Russian Defense Ministry said that Russian troops have removed all mines in the waters of Mariupol. The way towards the Black Sea was secured. The humanitarian corridor is 115 miles long [184 kilometers] and 2 miles wide [3.2 kilometers]. At the moment, Russia is restoring port infrastructure."

Simple gestures in such bad situations can go a long way to solving and resolving other issues and problems. I sincerely hope so. And for those vessels that take to the sea with their precious cargo, just don't look back.

coolbert.

Some!

This is coolbert:

Shipments of grain from Ukrainian ports now currently curtailed the solution is now found?

With terms! Terms as dictated by the Russian? 

From "Business Insider" the story by Huileng Tan May 26, 2022. Tip from yahoo.com

"Russia says it would let ships carrying food exports leave Ukraine if some sanctions were lifted"

Some sanctions! Some!

* "Russia said it would allow ships carrying food to leave Ukrainian ports if some sanctions were lifted."

* "Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea have been blocked since Russia's invasion."

* "More than 20 million tons of grains are stuck in Ukraine amid a global food crunch."

* "A senior Russian government official said the Kremlin would allow ships carrying food to leave Ukrainian ports in exchange for the lifting of sanctions"

More to follow! Standby!

coolbert.

Abuducted.

This is coolbert:

Kadyrov the Chechen strongman promised fighters for Vlad. Now he delivers them?

First from the "The Daily Beast" through yahoo.com the story by Shannon Vavra May 26, 2022.

1. "Russia Accused of Kidnapping Own Citizens to Fight War in Ukraine"

"Citizens of the Russian republic of Chechnya are reporting that they are being kidnapped against their will and forced to fight as 'volunteers' in Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to several human rights organizations."

"Hundreds of Chechen people are being rounded up for 'mass abductions,' 1Adat, a human rights group that advocates against corruption in Chechnya and Russian propaganda, reported."

“'The abducted are required to sign a paper stating that they are volunteers to be sent to Ukraine, otherwise they are threatened with fabrication of criminal cases,' 'Everyone who goes to Ukraine in this way will be used on the front line, like cannon fodder.'”

Also:

2. "Men abducted en masse in Chechnya and sent to fight against Ukraine media"

Thanks to yahoo.com the story from Ukrayinska Pravda story by SVITLANA KIZILOVA — 26 MAY 2022.

"Several Chechen human rights organizations, as well as bloggers, are talking about appeals from Chechen residents regarding men being abducted to be sent as 'volunteers' to the war against Ukraine."

"Details: According to human rights activists, the abducted men are forced to sign a contract under threat of spending an indefinite time in secret prisons."

Not for a moment would I ever consider such "conscripts" to be reliable or being able to display any sort of soldierly skill. More of a danger to themselves and their leadership!

If this indeed this is all true consider this a sure sign Vlad is desperate!

coolbert.

Dmytro.

This is coolbert:

Warning: this gallery contains images some people may find upsetting. If so, hit escape now.

FIRST see images of the Azovstal steel works as it WAS prior to 2022.

See current images as taken inside the Azovstal steel works during the siege [now over] in 2022.

Thanks to the English "The Guardian". All images by Photograph: Dmytro Kozatsky/Azov Regiment.

"A Ukrainian soldier uploaded all his photos of Azovstal before he was captured. Here they are"

Mon 23 May 2022.

"Dmytro Kozatsky, Azov Regiment fighter and photographer, documented the siege of the Azovstal metalworks. Before his capture he posted his pictures on social media, asking that they be shared as widely as possible. This is some of his work showing the realities of life during the battle. The Azov regiment retains some far-right affiliations"

Dmytro should not have uploaded the pictures to the Internet? Provides gist for Russian OSINT? Identify combatants of the Azov Battalion for arrest and prosecution.

coolbert.

UN WFP.

This is coolbert:

From a variety of Russian controlled [?] Internet media sources Black Sea shipments of Ukrainian grain to world markets a topic of intense interest.

A regional conflict with international implications and ramifications. Thanks to Jason for the input all items.

1. "Russia, UN interact on issue of unblocking grain in Ukrainian ports, says senior diplomat"

"The disruptions in grain supplies elevate the risk of a food crisis in a number of countries"

2. "Russia ready to grant passage to vessels with food from Ukrainian ports — senior diplomat"

"According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko, the resolution of a food problem requires a comprehensive approach"

3. "Free-floating naval mines reach shores of Romania, Turkey — IMO"

"Ships should navigate with particular caution when operating in the Black Sea region, the International Maritime Organization warned"

See my previous blog entry the topic floating sea mines the Black Sea.

4. "Russia warns against naval coalition to escort Ukrainian grain"

"Such an international mission would only increase tensions in the Black Sea, Russia’s deputy FM says"

See additionally this link the British proposing to escort [other NATO nations also participating] grain carrying vessels the Black Sea. Must be dismissed out-of-hand?

5. "Moscow Rejects Claims Russia's Military is Smuggling Grain From Ukraine"

"Last week, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) called for expansion of solutions to tackle food crisis, which is aggravating global food insecurity amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and economic crises."

Gonna have to work fast for all this to transpire and work. Frankly I am skeptical. Nations of the world now too preventing exports and hoarding. China for instance has currently HALF the world's stored grain. Almost as if the Chinese KNEW something big on an international scale was going to occur!

coolbert.

Партизани.

This is coolbert:

Партизани України. Ukrainian partisans. "War of the Rails" 2022.

The Ukrainian fights back! Even in territory occupied by Russian forces, no Russian military man safe at any given moment. Ukrainian guerrilla fighters on the prowl.

From Newsweek Zoe Strozewski - the tip from msn.com

1. "Ukrainians Kill 'High-Ranking' Soldiers, Blow Up Russian Train: Reports"

"Ukrainian forces blew up a Russian armored train that they said was carrying personnel in the occupied city of Melitopol on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian officials."

"The day before, guerrillas in Melitopol claimed they 'eliminated high-ranking Russian servicemen,' according to Ukraine's Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration."

2. "Ukraine officials give conflicting accounts of attack on Russian train"

From Reuters May 18, 2022.

"KYIV, May 18 (Reuters) - Ukraine's territorial defense force said on Wednesday its fighters had blown up an armored train carrying Russian troops, but an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelinskiy later said the attack had been confined to rails near the train."

[....]

"The defense force - the reservist branch of Ukraine's armed forces - said in an online posting that explosives had detonated under a rail car carrying military personnel. It did not elaborate on the extent of the damage."

OK. Damage confined to the rails and not the train itself! That does make more sense. The Russian has indeed restored the ancient and venerable tradition of the armored train? Provides where tracks are available point-defense of vulnerable targets with train-mounted anti-aircraft artillery and MANPADS?

coolbert.

Outsource.

This is coolbert:

Once again the German and NATO readiness. Especially within the circumstances of the German military lacking a capability for organic transport and logistical support.

Courtesy Commander Salamander April 11, 2022.

"Rethinking the Logistics Challenge after Looking at Ukraine from the German Point of View"

"The current structure of the Bundeswehr, as it is currently structured in the capabilities, in the structures, is actually based on a different picture of war, not on national defense and alliance defense, but on international crisis management, as we say today, 'out of area' operations. That's why we reduced our own forces in strategic transport, including tactical transport, because we assumed we could definitely do it (transport and logistics) with cheaper civilian service providers. Well, with the refocusing on national defense, we have a different picture, so we have to insource some of what we outsourced for reasons of secured availability in case of need..."

"Note: [thanks to the Commander] this interview is in German. If your German is not up to where it should be, just click the settings part of the video in YouTube, then subtitle/cc, then autotranslate, then English, and that will work for you just fine."

Germans prior to the Ukraine Conflict "outsourced" military transport and logistics due to budget constraints. The German now during a time of crisis and enhanced threat LACKING for what they NEED. Impedimenta as NEEDED not so cheap or easily gotten! Pay me now or pay more later!

Gallieni in 1914 did mobilize the Paris taxicabs. The Germans need however much more.

coolbert.

Replenishment II.

This is coolbert:

Once more from Russian controlled [?] Internet media RT 25 May, 2022.  

NATO dissension Poles and Germans at loggerheads. See previous blog entry for context.

WHENEVER are the Germans and Poles not at loggerheads?

"loggerheads: noun - at loggerheads quarrelling, opposed, feuding, at odds, estranged, in dispute, at each other's throats, at daggers drawn, at enmity"

"Germany ‘perplexed’ by Poland’s accusations"

"Berlin has indicated it might not have the tanks Warsaw wants at the ready"

"Germany ‘perplexed’ by Poland’s accusations"

"The German government has rejected criticism by Polish President Andrzej Duda, who accused Berlin of failing to substitute tanks Warsaw had delivered to Ukraine. It might take Germany a long time to produce the heavy equipment Poland seeks to receive from Berlin, government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit told journalists on Wednesday."

On Tuesday, Duda told the German news outlet Die Welt that Berlin had failed to replenish the Polish stocks in a timely fashion after Warsaw 'weakened' its own military potential by sending “a large number” of tanks to Ukraine. Most Polish tanks are German-made ones and Warsaw expected Berlin to step in, the Polish leader added."

[....]

"Warsaw reportedly specifically requested the most modern Leopard 2A7 tanks."

There it is in the nutshell as they say. The Leopard 2A7 version is the most modern and up-to-date German tank. Those Leopard tanks as previously purchased by the Pole and now sent to the Ukrainian lesser versions [2A5 tanks and 14 2A4 variants] of the Leopard.

Does anyone have it all down in writing? I doubt it.

coolbert.

Replenishment I.

This is coolbert:

Dissension within NATO? Could it be? Of course it could be. And is.

From Russian controlled [?] Internet media RT and thanks to same 24 May, 2022.

"Poland ‘very disappointed’ with Germany"

"President Andrzej Duda has accused Berlin of breaching a deal to replace tanks that Warsaw sent to Kiev"

"Germany has failed to supply Poland with battle tanks after Warsaw depleted its own stocks to send heavy equipment to Ukraine, Polish President Andrzej Duda told Germany’s Die Welt newspaper on Tuesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos."

"Poland has 'weakened' its own military potential by using its own capacity to supply Kiev with “a large number of tanks,” Duda said, adding that Warsaw had expected support from NATO, and Berlin in particular."

"Most of Poland’s tanks are German-made Leopards, the president explained, adding that Berlin earlier promised to replace military hardware delivered to Ukraine."

 "'Rob Peter to pay Paul'? - To take from one merely to give to another; to discharge one debt by incurring another."

Is that what this is? Or some version thereof? Rob Peter to pay Paul. The Poles give away their own tanks to the Ukrainian but then the German must give away their own tanks to replenish the war time armor readiness of the Polish army

Consider: "In November 2013 Polish Defense Ministry acquired 119 tanks from the German Army. These include 105 Leopard 2A5 tanks and 14 2A4 variants, and stated they want the Leopard to be the main tank operated by the Polish Army"

ALONG WITH DONATING THE TANKS THE POLE ALSO HAD TO SEND LARGE QUANTITIES OF TANK MAIN GUN AMMO AND LOTS OF SPARE PARTS? AGAIN, THE WAR STOCKPILES DIMINISHED AND DEPLETED.

coolbert.

Cadieu III.

 This is coolbert:

As posted at the Internet web site "South Front" 22.05.2022.

With regard to SouthFront: "SouthFront is a multilingual website registered in Russia that 'combines Kremlin talking points with detailed knowledge of military systems and ongoing conflicts'"

"DID RUSSIA REALLY CAPTURE CANADIAN GENERAL IN MARIUPOL?"

"Since the end of April 2022, information about the detention of senior NATO general Trevor Cadieux at Azovstal has been circulating on the Internet. Unfortunately, there is no confirmed information about this at this time. The Russian power structures have not yet officially reported it. Nevertheless, there is quite serious evidence to substantiate this information."

[....]

"Trevor Cadieu did appear on Ukrainian territory, which there is a lot of evidences of, and then suddenly disappeared from sight. He is not in Kiev and is not listed among the dead. As Ottawa Citizen concludes, the NATO general is currently in the catacombs of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol together with Nazis from Azov and several hundred foreign mercenaries."

"In addition, there is information that the general was in charge of Biological Laboratory No. 1, where they allegedly worked with deadly viruses. Now Cadieux is already in Moscow, where he will stand trial."

See previous blog entries the topic Trevor Cadieu:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/05/cadieu-ii.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/04/cadieu.html

coolbert.

Top-5.

This is coolbert:

"Regular readers know I [Salamander] am not a fan of American as global hegemon or policeman. I’ve had no change in that regard … but I try to listen to history’s lessons and do my best to look a half dozen plays down the board – and Taiwan’s independence is one of those things where I’m willing to say, 'Yes, here we make a stand.'”

"hegemony: noun - The predominance of one state or social group over others. Predominance; preponderance; leadership; specifically, headship or control exercised by one state over another or others, as through confederation or conquest"

From the Internet web site of Commander Salamander and thanks to same.

"Yes, Taiwan is an Island Worth Dying On"

Tuesday, May 24, 2022.

"There are my top-5 reasons why those with a clear head about the PRC should welcome the President’s comments. Accept and promote them."

[....]

"The coming conflict [if and when it occurs] with the PRC may not be unavoidable, but the need to prepare for one is. If we take the challenge seriously and prepare for it, then the challenge may never come. If we pretend the challenge is not growing, then the challenge will move on to action as the opportunity to change centuries of failure will be ripe for the taking."

[....]

"Taiwan cannot be allowed to fall under the control of the Communist Party of China. There are a whole host of reasons. My top-5 I will outline below"

I [Bert] list only the key points. Devoted readers to the blog are strongly encouraged to read the entire article.

1. "The Map: With Taiwan, you control Japanese access to half the planet, and you extend your military influence east through the Philippine Sea."

2. "Justice: If  'The West' and her auxiliaries stand for anything, it should be for representative governance and individual liberty."

3. "Stand Against Aggressive War: the international community in Ukraine is setting a precedence that we will not stand by quietly and reward aggressive war by Russia." 

4. "Economics: the world’s economy and Western militaries are mindlessly dependent on Taiwan."

5. "West of Wake: with the loss of Taiwan, the ability of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and other nations in the western Pacific – who are either auxiliaries to the West or trying to become such – will be in what position in face of a stronger and emboldened China?" 

With regard to item # 4, something like 80 % of the world's micro-electronic semi-conductors are manufactured in Taiwan. Plus the machines to manufacture the semi-conductors also made in Taiwan. Taiwan and their capacity in this regard almost irreplaceable and must be acknowledged as being so!!

coolbert.

Complimentary.

This is coolbert:

“Dozens of Israeli air force fighter jets are expected to take part in the exercise and fly hundreds of miles from Israel to the west above the Mediterranean in a way that simulates a flight route to Iran,” reports Axios.

As it was in 1967 so will it be in 2022?

Israeli Air Force in conjunction with USAF prepares for pre-emptive attack on the Iranian?

"Unprecedented: US Air Force To Join Israelis In Mock Attack On Iran"

BY TYLER DURDEN MAY 23, 2022 - Zero Hedge.

"As if an intense proxy war with nuclear powerhouse Russia isn’t bringing enough heat, the Biden White House has now given the greenlight for unprecedented U.S. participation in an Israeli drill simulating a massive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities."

"According to The Times of Israel, “The U.S. Air Force will serve as a complementary force, with refueling planes drilling with Israeli fighter jets as they simulate entering Iranian territory and carrying out repeated strikes.' The mock attack on Iran will happen this month, as part of a broader Israeli military exercise called 'Chariots of Fire.'”  

COMPLIMENTARY FORCE OF USA AIR FORCE REFUELING TANKERS AND WAS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR SUCH A MILITARY MISSION CONSIDERING THE DISTANCES AND THE BOMB LOADS THAT WOULD BE NEEDED.

This actually sounds like the rehearsals the Israeli Air Force [IAF] had practiced for YEARS prior to the pre-emptive strike on the Egyptian air fields the Six Day War [1967].

coolbert.

Oleksii.

 

This is coolbert:

One more outstanding Ukrainian athlete and martial arts master dies the combat Mariupol!

From Ukrayinska Pravda May 24, 2022 the story by KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO - the tip from yahoo.com

"The World Thai boxing champion died in the fighting for Mariupol"

"Oleksii Yanin, the Ukrainian kickboxing champion and the world champion in Thai boxing (Muay Thai) died in the fighting for Mariupol. He served in the Special Operations Detachment 'Azov' of the National Guard of Ukraine."

"Details: Yanin was killed on the night of 6-7 April in Mariupol during military operations; the Ministry made this information public on 24 May."

Oleksii a combatant with the Azov battalion. Preceded in death by yet another Ukrainian martial arts expert the kickboxer Maksym Kagal.

Hey, as I stated previously and with 100 % accuracy: "No one ever fault the Ukrainian celebrity as lacking in patriotism. If necessary willing to put their bodies on the line."

coolbert.

Bungling.

This is coolbert:

As it was between the Soviets and the Finn in 1939 as it is now between the Russian and Ukrainian in 2022? Parallels are striking?

"BUNGLING THE PREWAR AND FIRST MOVES IN FINLAND 1939 AND UKRAINE 2022: A COMEDY OF ERRORS FOR STALIN’S SOVIET UNION AND PUTIN’S RUSSIA, RESPECTIVELY"

The article By Brian E. Frydenborg  05/23/2022 - courtesy "Small Wars Journal".

"The staggeringly ridiculous parallels between the First Soviet-Finnish Winter War and the current war in Ukraine are both profoundly illuminating and especially instructive"

As extracted:

 "Stalin was unrealistically influenced by the headline-grabbing antics of the Lapuans, the grotesque fantasies of the Karelian irredentists, and the exaggerated reports of agents who were eager to tell the Kremlin what they thought the Kremlin wanted to hear. From remarks made during his later negotiations with the Finns, it seems clear that Stalin really did believe that the interior of Finland seethed with class antagonism and fascist plotters and that all of Finnish society was undercut by smouldering grudges left over from the civil war days. Ill feeling persisted, of course—the conflict had been too bloody for all the scars to have healed in just two decades—but Moscow’s estimate of its extent, importance, and potential for outside exploitation was wildly inaccurate. In fact, the old wounds were healing faster than even the Finns themselves realized; with the onset of a massive contemporary threat from the Soviet Union, those old enmities looked remote and historic."

[....]

"Official Soviet publications and news services referred to the Finnish government and leaders as 'the Fascists' and emphasized the supposedly oppressive conditions of the Finnish working class and their readiness to ally with the Soviet would-be 'liberators.'”

"This was, and to a certain extent still is, the official justification given to the Soviet public for why the war was fought.  It permitted the Kremlin to rationalize the apparent lunacy of a nation of 3.5 million souls attempting to invade a nation of 171 million." 

Devoted readers to the blog and those perusing casually are strong encouraged to read the entire article.

Was and to a certain extent is! 1939 and 2022 both. OH MY!

coolbert.

Botashev.

This is coolbert:

Add one more Russian senior military commander to the list of those General officers lost in combat Ukraine. Questions truly need to be answered about this.

Retired Russian Air Force Major General Kanamat Botashev. Retired. Sixty-three years old!

The story by BRENDAN COLE ON 5/24/22 courtesy Newsweek.

"Who is Kanamat Botashev? Russia's Highest Ranking Airforce Commander Killed"

"A top Russian air force commander [retired] has reportedly been killed in the Ukraine war, delivering another blow to Vladimir Putin's invasion."

"Information about the reported shooting down of retired Russian Air Force Major General Kanamat Botashev was confirmed to BBC Russian by three of his former subordinates."

"On Sunday, May 22, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said a Russian Sukhoi (SU-25) attack aircraft [Frogfoot] was shot down over the Luhansk region and that the pilot did not have time to eject."

[....]

"How the 63-year-old retired general ended up piloting a Su-25 in Ukraine is unknown, although former subordinates told the BBC that he 'simply could not stay away.'"

A military man, even as an aviator of much experience in high-performance combat warplanes should not have been allowed to fly the Frogfoot into combat? Kanamat had been checked-out as they say, and considered to be combat worthy? I would assume that is the normal practice for the Russian as for just about any other reputable air force?

coolbert.

Dredd.

This is coolbert:

“'It makes no difference who is a lawyer, who is a prosecutor, who is a judge, we are all united.'" - Ivan Mishchenko.

Judge "Dredd" at your service. Prepare to be judged.

A personal interest story the Ukraine Conflict.

From the "Dead Lawyers Society" Internet web site and thanks to same.

Translated by Olya Panchenko. Proofreading by Conal Campbell.

"Supreme [Court] Judge 'Dredd' Ivan Mishchenko"

"Ukrainian Supreme Court Judge Ivan Mishchenko left his job and joined Kyiv’s armed resistance, taking up a machine gun. Many legal sector media such as Above the Law, Law Gazette, and LegalCheek wrote about him. In Ukraine, he is now called 'Judge Dredd'."

Judge holding a captured Russian most-modern AK-12 assault rifle. Wife and children sent to safety, the judge volunteers his services in the Territorial Defense force. Similar to but probably not identical to the USA National Guard. Main mission guard key installations but only the most extreme of circumstances engage in combat.

Persons of his [Ivan] stature and station-of-life normally beyond the age of military service, Ivan however not eschewing his service as he sees fit during a time of war. Bully for the man!

See also the blog entries for the Klitschko boys. High status Ukrainians doing their duty also and admirably so.

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/02/vitaly-k.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/01/klitschko.html

coolbert.

NSN Ukraine.

This is coolbert:

"Ukrainian Internal Affairs Ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko made the statement on social media on Thursday, saying that discussions are now underway in relation to how the US could help to break a Russian blockade of Black Sea ports."

I am almost saying to myself I hope this does not come to pass! Language of a sort to be avoided given current circumstances!

From RT [Russian Times] as of 21 May, 2022.

"US plans to help ‘destroy’ Russian [Black Sea] fleet – Ukrainian official"

"The Pentagon has denied claims made by an Internal Affairs Ministry adviser"

"A top Ukrainian adviser [Gerashchenko] has claimed that the United States is drawing up plans to sink Russian warships and ‘destroy’ its Black Sea Fleet, following reports that Washington is seeking to provide advanced anti-ship missiles to the Ukrainian military. The Pentagon has denied the allegations."

“'The US is preparing a plan for the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet,' he [Gerashchenko] wrote. 'The effective work of the Ukrainians on [Russian] warships convinced [the US] to prepare a plan to unblock the ports. Deliveries of powerful anti-ship weapons (Harpoon and Naval Strike Missile [NSM] . . . are being discussed.'”

DESTROY THE RUSSIAN BLACK SEA FLEET AND OPEN TRADE ROUTES FOR SHIPMENTS OF UKRAINIAN GRAIN TO ALL PARTS OF THE WORLD AGAIN. USING AMERICAN ANTI-SHIP MISSILES TO DO SO? 

You are only going to enrage the Russians terribly so and perhaps set off a chain-reaction so the consequences of which are unpredictable and potentially most grave.

coolbert.

Brimstone.

This is coolbert:

Brimstone. 98 % effective!

Ground to ground or air-launched ground attack missile now in use the Ukraine Conflict.

From the Internet web site Strategy Page and thanks to same:

British anti-tank guided missile long-range now in use Ukraine. This is Brimstone.

"ARTILLERY: British Boxed Brimstones In Ukraine"

"May 22, 2022: Among the growing variety of weapons sent to Ukraine is a special (just for the Ukrainians) ground launched version of the Brimstone missile launched. The improvisation is a box-shaped launcher designed to be bolted to the back of a flatbed truck. Britain took a three-missile Brimstone launcher used by aircraft and mounted four of these launchers in a metal box. Add fire control gear and you have mobile anti-tank missile vehicles. Reload missiles can be carried, in their shipping containers, on any size truck and be used for reloading the truck mounted launchers. In early May video of a truck launcher firing several missiles was released along with another video, taken by a UAV, showing Russian tanks being destroyed by Brimstones."

FIELD EXPEDIENT CRUDE BUT EFFECTIVE AS THEY SAY!

"Brimstone is a ground or air-launched ground attack missile developed by MBDA UK for Britain's Royal Air Force. It was originally intended for "fire-and-forget" use against mass formations of enemy armour, using a millimetre wave (mmW) active radar homing seeker to ensure accuracy even against moving targets. Experience in Afghanistan led to the addition of laser guidance in the dual-mode Brimstone missile, allowing a 'spotter' to pick out specific and the highest priority targets"

Consider merely the cost of a single Brimstone:

"In 2010 Britain added a dual-mode (radar and laser) seeker to Brimstone. This version cost $265,000 each, while the single mode (radar) version cost $170,000 each"

See too from janes.com an article of the to be fielded Polish lightly-armored tank destroyer that will be armed with a dozen Brimstone.

coolbert.

Severodonetsk II.

This is coolbert:

From Reuters via US News ^ | May 22, 2022 the tip from Freeper.

Severodonetsk the Ukrainian city under attack by concerted and determined Russian forces.

"Ukraine Says It Holds [sic] off Latest Russian Assault in East"

The fate of Luhansk and Donetsk now is being decided as we speak?

"KYIV/MARIUPOL (Reuters) -Ukraine said on Monday it had held off the latest assault on an eastern city that has become the main target of Moscow's offensive since Russian forces finally seized Mariupol last week. Russian forces tried to storm Sievierodonetsk, but were unsuccessful and retreated . . . The city, on the banks of the Siverskiy Donets river that winds through eastern Ukraine, has been the main Russian target in recent days as Moscow tries to encircle Ukrainian forces in the east and fully capture the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces"

Vlad has decided on the minimalist approach to the war rather than the maximalist version? Capture of Russians plans the Ukraine now decides on the capture of Severodonetsk? This needs to be worked out to the end. Artillery-centric Russian army having brought all the heavy guns to bear an obvious indication that Russian is dead serious!

Regarding the use of the Russian 240 mm mortar according to the Soviet era defector Suvorov: [as was written forty years ago]

"I have actually seen 12 240 mm mortars in action together. These fire not 16 kilogram but 100 kilogram bombs [220 pounds]. Within twenty minutes each mortar fired 15 bombs. This represented as I later calculated, a total of 18 tons of explosives and cast-iron splinters. I found the noise absolutely staggering. It was amazing that men could retain their sanity in the midst of it. While the firing was in progress, one had the impression that thousands of tons of explosive were going off each second and the whole process seemed to last an age. The astonishing destructive power of these mortars makes up for any inaccuracy in aiming or in dispersion. I believe this is the correct approach." 

Further:

"The outstanding simplicity, reliability and ease of maintenance of the 240 mm mortar are vital qualities, and they played a decisive role when the moment came to decide which should be the first artillery weapon to fire nuclear projectiles. It was the obvious choice and it is now many years since it was selected for this role. It was also a good choice, being comparatively small, maneuverable and easier to conceal than a gun,. At the same time it has a huge caliber, which solves several technical problems. The muzzle velocity is considerably lower than that of a gun or a howitzer. The is therefore no damage that the bomb will explode as it is fired or that it will detonate accidentally. What could be better?"

Well, nothing! As long as you are on the sending end and not the receiving! This story is not over.

coolbert.

Capitulation.

This is coolbert:

The Mariupol pocket now having capitulated further discussion warranted.

"A pocket is a group of combat forces that have been isolated by opposing forces from their logistical base and other friendly forces. In mobile warfare, such as blitzkrieg, salients were more likely to be cut off into pockets, which became the focus of battles of annihilation."

"The term pocket carries connotations that the encirclement was not intentionally allowed by the encircled forces, as it may have been when defending a fortified position, which is usually called a siege."

The Mariupol pocket surrender or annihilation was inevitable. Elements necessary for successful defense of a pocket missing.

TO REITERATE:

"Pockets of troops encircled from the experience of the German army WW2 having three options, none of which was surrender."

Courses of Action [CoA] to include:

      1. Overland relief. 2. Breakout. 3. A "moving pocket".

Survival of a "pocket" depending upon:

      1. Morale. 2. Strong leadership/competent command.

Further with regard to morale consider: 

      * Resupply. Ammunition, water, food, treatment of wounded.

Also as pertains to leadership:

      * Commander and subordinates share and endure all privations of the lower ranks.

Expect those Azov battalion combatants to be screened and separated from the rest of the Ukrainian POW. I have would have to expect the neo-Nazi battalion troops their fate going to be grim. Show trials, guilty verdicts with a lot of confession, whisked away to a Gulag type of camp for punishment of a long-term. As I said, grim!

coolbert.