Thursday, June 13, 2019
Some damn fool thing in the Baltic!
The Russian threat in the Baltics well understood. A2/D2 as it is deemed seen as a significant threat. Russian military forces in the enclave of Kaliningrad able to “keep-out" unwary and foolish adversaries.
From a Swedish think tank an appraisal of the Russian A2/D2 Baltic threat.
That Russian A2/D2 threat consisting of * Air defense missile of the S-400 SAM type. * Coastal defense anti-ship missile of the Bastion variety. * Ground-ground precision ballistic missile Iskander [NATO SS-26 Stone].
Extracted from the executive summary first and last paragraph. Thanks to the authors Robert Dalsjö, Christofer Berglund, Michael Jonsson and the tip from Don:
"Bursting the Bubble"
"Russian A2/AD in the Baltic Sea Region:
Capabilities, Countermeasures, and Implications"
"Russia’s potential to create 'keep-out zones' or anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) 'bubbles' in its near abroad has become a hot topic and a source of concern in recent years. In a land-grab operation against a weak neighbour, it is feared, Russia could keep help from reaching the victim in time by cordoning off the area of operations with a combination of long-range sensors and missiles. Soon, notions of nearly impregnable Russian A2/AD-barriers or bubbles extending far beyond its territory became widespread in the West, as did maps with large circles indicating areas out of bounds."
. . . .
"All in all, this demonstrates that Russia’s 'A2/AD bubble' is smaller than often thought, not impenetrable, and probably even burst-able. The main implication of this is that the prospects for defending or resupplying the Baltic states in a crisis or war are not as bleak as is often claimed. The challenges can probably be handled, provided there is political and military will and that the commensurate resources are allocated. Another implication is that the dynamics of this contest of long-range capabilities will almost inevitably have an impact on all the states in the region, regardless of whether they are a primary party to the conflict or not. For Sweden, this has arguably already contributed to the acquisition of Patriot air defence systems and the deployment of troops to Gotland."
RUSSIAN A2/D2 THREAT MUCH VAUNTED AND FEARED BUT ALSO MUCH OVER-RATED? COUNTER-MEASURES DO EXIST.
Burst that bubble! It is possible. Given will and resources.