Uncertainty.

This is coolbert:

Here begins a series of posts, extracts from latest version of the DEBKAfile newsletter. Additionally my comments.

And of course the hot button topic is the serious situation in the Persian Gulf, vicinity Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, oil tankers having been attacked and badly damaged.

AN OCEANIC CHOKE POINT OF THE GREATEST IMPORTANCE TO THE WHOLE WORLD IN DANGER OF BEING CLOSED. WITH RAMIFICATIONS THAT CAN HARDLY BE DIMINISHED EVEN IN THE SMALLEST IOTA.

This situation also reminds me to an extent of The Gulf of Tonkin incident from over fifty years ago. Especially as it applies to what is deemed the fog of war:

"The fog of war . . .  is the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations. The term seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding one's own capability, adversary capability, and adversary intent during an engagement, operation, or campaign."

Information and intelligence as available to the decision makers at the highest echelons of government that is often imprecise, incomplete, misleading, often contradictory.

As in this case with the tankers and as has been reported by the media:

* Tankers were torpedoed.
* Tankers hit mines.
* Tankers were hit by "a flying object".
* Iranians were seen removing a mine from one of the stricken vessels.
* Drone was shot down over international airspace.
* Drone was shot down over Iranian airspace.
* Pieces of the drone were recovered from Iranian waters.

AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS TO MAKE WHAT OF ALL THIS?

coolbert.