Fulfilled.

This is coolbert:

Once more and with great thanks we have extracts from the blog of the esteemed Israeli Professor Martin van Creveld. A military historian/theoretician/analyst of repute.

Topic the Ukraine Conflict.

"Will Russia Win?"

POSTED ON JUNE 30, 2022 BY MARTIN VAN CREVELD.

Begins in the nutshell comments and observations of the professor with much thanks:

"Like almost all other Westerners, at the time the Russian-Ukrainian War broke out in February 2022 I was convinced that the Russians would fail to reach their objectives and lose the war. Putting the details aside, this prediction was based on the following main three pillars."

Con the Russian victory:

* "First, the numerous failures, after 1945, of modern, state-run armed forces to cope with uprisings, insurgencies, guerrilla warfare, terrorism, asymmetrical warfare, and any number of similar forms of armed conflict."

* "Second, the size of Ukraine’s territory and population made me and others think that Russia had tried to bite off more than it could swallow."

* "Third, plain wishful thinking—something I shared with most Western observers."

HOWEVER!

"Since then four very eventful months have passed. As they went on, the following factors have forced me to take another look at the situation."

Pro the Russian victory:

* "First, the Ukrainians are not fighting a guerrilla war." 

* "Second, a change in Russian tactics."

* "Third, Western military technology, especially anti-aircraft weapons, anti-tank weapons, and drones may be excellent. However, limited numbers, the result of years and years of parsimony and the belief that war in Europe had become impossible, plus the need to retrain the relevant Ukrainian personnel, means that it has been slow to arrive in the places where it is most needed."

* "Fourth, strict censorship is making the impact of Western economic sanctions on Russia’s population hard to asses." 

* "Fifth, the economic impact of the war on the West has been much greater than anyone thought." 

*  "Last not least, beginning with the Enlightenment the West has long preened itself on being a fortress where liberty, law and justice prevail. Now the repeated, highly publicized, requisitioning of the property of so-called oligarchs is beginning to make some people wonder."

"Oligarchy . . . is a form of power structure in which power rests with a small number of people. These people may or may not be distinguished by one or several characteristics, such as nobility, fame, wealth, education, or corporate, religious, political, or military control." [oligarchs in the Russian sense here better called plutocrats?]

The professor concludes:

"To be sure, we are not there yet. But as growing number of statements that the war is going to be a long one show, it is now primarily a question of who can draw the deepest breath and hold out the longest. And when it comes to that, Russia’s prospects of coming out on top and obtaining a favorable settlement are not at all bad."

Vlad in the end will have his desires fulfilled?

As to the final outcome of the Ukraine Conflict, my perspective and opinion later!

coolbert.