This is coolbert:
Undoubtedly some pundits will respond to the latest sanctions as applied to the Iranians and suggest that this is a situation analogous to and reminds them of the situation that existed in the days just prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor, 7 December 1941.
Iran now finding themselves in a situation so it will be stated, without recourse but to strike out in some manner, no option available, no recourse to a steadily worsening stream of events!
As it was in 1941, the Japanese oil supply from the American supplier having been "cut-off", Japan not having oil available and their society going to "grind" to a halt, Roosevelt and American planners also just prior to American entry into the war having PROVOKED THE JAPANESE IN A MANNER THAT COULD NOT BE REFUSED!!
Compelling the Iranian as is being done now many will feel is again a set of circumstances as was done to Japan in 1941? Japan not having ANY oil was forced to act as it did AND AMERICA ONLY HAS ITSELF TO BLAME FOR EVENTS AS THEY TRANSPIRED!!
NOT so fast Charlie Brown!
From the web site essay: "World War II: Japan and Oil (1939-45)"
The Japanese in 1941 actually having an abundance of stockpiled oil that more than satisfied DOMESTIC NEEDS for about a two year period, ONE YEAR ONLY if further war with the U.S. and Britain commenced!! [recall that Japan had been at full-scale war with China for FOUR YEARS PRIOR TO PEARL HARBOR!!]
"Japan had oil stockpiles that could supply its normal needs for 2 years, but only about 1 year if Japan went to war because of the huge increased requirements to fight a naval war"
My understanding is that Japanese oil stockpiles and reserves and what was needed for DOMESTIC NEEDS was hardly so dire, even was favorable. American "cut-off", the embargo I also understand to consist of stopping the flow of REFINED AVIATION GASOLINE AND NOT CRUDE OIL! Even in those several months prior to Pearl Harbor Japanese tankers carrying CRUDE OIL from American west coast ports to Japan unimpeded and unmolested, NOT STOPPED!!
The Roosevelt administration too using their good offices to restrain the Japanese ONLY finding themselves put into an awkward situation from which there was no option - - the Japanese occupation of French Indo-China prior to the oil embargo [refined aviation gasoline] being put in place a needless provocation which seemed to absolutely signal aggressive intent on the part of the Japanese.
coolbert.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Friday, March 30, 2012
Sanctions.
This is coolbert:
This means war?
Sanctions that will lead to war are being imposed and have been imposed on Iran. The Iranian now having been told that THEY WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO POSSESS ATOMIC WEAPONRY, THE SCREWS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS BEING APPLIED IN AN UNPRECEDENTED MANNER!!
I hope this all does not backfire and rather than averting war RATHER LEADS TO WAR!!
From two weeks ago this unprecedented move. Iranian banks doing international monetary transfer now forbidden from using the SWIFT system. Transfers of money, large sums of it, within the international money transfer realm now out of reach for the Iranian. Again, UNPRECEDENTED!!
"Iran's banks to be blocked from global banking system"
"Swift, the body that handles global banking transactions, says it will cut Iran's banks out of the system on Saturday to enforce sanctions."
AND from only today, the sanctions and the hurt being ratchet up a notch as they say. More pressure and pain being caused. ALMOST AN ULTIMATUM! AND also again unprecedented at least in my memory and knowledge.
"Iran crisis: US to apply fresh oil sanctions"
"US President Barack Obama has approved the introduction of fresh sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil."
China, Indian and South Korea being told in no uncertain terms to STOP PURCHASING IRANIAN OIL. Harsh words and perhaps even harsh measures to be taken against nations, major trading partners with the U.S. Also unprecedented. I KEEP USING THAT WORD UNPRECEDENTED OVER AND OVER FOR EMPHASIS AND WITH REASON!
Within the Shia worldview this sort of punitive steps and measures fits very well? The Iranian sees themselves as being set upon in a manner as would have Hussein fourteen hundred [1400] years ago? Friendless and unappreciated, a righteous nation of believers the martyrs of legend who to a degree even enjoy the status of the persecuted?
Economic sanctions will bite hard and place the Iranian with their back to the wall so to speak, the only way out for them as they see it a conflict of apocalyptic and global proportions even HOPED FOR the use of proxies an option. Be very careful with this or it can and will backfire!!
coolbert.
This means war?
Sanctions that will lead to war are being imposed and have been imposed on Iran. The Iranian now having been told that THEY WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO POSSESS ATOMIC WEAPONRY, THE SCREWS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS BEING APPLIED IN AN UNPRECEDENTED MANNER!!
I hope this all does not backfire and rather than averting war RATHER LEADS TO WAR!!
From two weeks ago this unprecedented move. Iranian banks doing international monetary transfer now forbidden from using the SWIFT system. Transfers of money, large sums of it, within the international money transfer realm now out of reach for the Iranian. Again, UNPRECEDENTED!!
"Iran's banks to be blocked from global banking system"
"Swift, the body that handles global banking transactions, says it will cut Iran's banks out of the system on Saturday to enforce sanctions."
AND from only today, the sanctions and the hurt being ratchet up a notch as they say. More pressure and pain being caused. ALMOST AN ULTIMATUM! AND also again unprecedented at least in my memory and knowledge.
"Iran crisis: US to apply fresh oil sanctions"
"US President Barack Obama has approved the introduction of fresh sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil."
China, Indian and South Korea being told in no uncertain terms to STOP PURCHASING IRANIAN OIL. Harsh words and perhaps even harsh measures to be taken against nations, major trading partners with the U.S. Also unprecedented. I KEEP USING THAT WORD UNPRECEDENTED OVER AND OVER FOR EMPHASIS AND WITH REASON!
Within the Shia worldview this sort of punitive steps and measures fits very well? The Iranian sees themselves as being set upon in a manner as would have Hussein fourteen hundred [1400] years ago? Friendless and unappreciated, a righteous nation of believers the martyrs of legend who to a degree even enjoy the status of the persecuted?
Economic sanctions will bite hard and place the Iranian with their back to the wall so to speak, the only way out for them as they see it a conflict of apocalyptic and global proportions even HOPED FOR the use of proxies an option. Be very careful with this or it can and will backfire!!
coolbert.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Block Captain.
This is coolbert:
From a previous blog entry: "Persons of what is normally considered to be middle-age [45-64 years old] being required to do what sort of non-military duty?"
One of those non-military duties and functions being the BLOCK CAPTAIN!
A war-time [World War Two] measure only, that man-made grid as superimposed on an American urban area the basic unit of which was the BLOCK having an elected individual whose role was an unofficial but important coordinator of activities on the home front!!
That American city block one furlong long, two hundred twenty yards [about 200 meters], eight city blocks to one mile [about 1,500 meters]. Each and every city block organized to have a resident block captain, elected by his peers and presiding over the area unofficially but with a certain degree of understood authority.
"The neighborhood was the building block of these home front activities that almost immediately enveloped every family. Twenty thousand elected block captains [in Chicago alone!]"
Functions and duties of a quasi-governmental nature to include:
* Organize War Bond drives.
* Organize scrap metal drives.
* Organize "Victory Gardens".
* Organize patriotic gestures.
"held ceremonies for those departing for the military and erected small shrines for those who did not return."
* Ensure and maintain air-raid blackouts.
"he went door to door every night to make sure anyone who had their lights on after dark turned them off, or had their windows 'painted' so that lights didn't show on the street."
This would have been [?] important on both the east and west coasts especially during the early stages of the war. Big cities such as Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York in particular.
AND!
* Maintain a silent and perhaps not so-silent watch over their community [city block]
Keep an eye out for shirkers, malingerers, slackers, deserters, drifters, those unwilling to register for the military draft or allow themselves to be conscripted, etc. Recalcitrant and unpatriotic persons watched for!
Older persons serving in the capacity of block captain performing a task during war time felt to be vital, everyone has a role, and everyone feels they are contributing, a patriotic fever pitch in part the goal, and realized in a way not seen since!!
coolbert.
From a previous blog entry: "Persons of what is normally considered to be middle-age [45-64 years old] being required to do what sort of non-military duty?"
One of those non-military duties and functions being the BLOCK CAPTAIN!
A war-time [World War Two] measure only, that man-made grid as superimposed on an American urban area the basic unit of which was the BLOCK having an elected individual whose role was an unofficial but important coordinator of activities on the home front!!
That American city block one furlong long, two hundred twenty yards [about 200 meters], eight city blocks to one mile [about 1,500 meters]. Each and every city block organized to have a resident block captain, elected by his peers and presiding over the area unofficially but with a certain degree of understood authority.
"The neighborhood was the building block of these home front activities that almost immediately enveloped every family. Twenty thousand elected block captains [in Chicago alone!]"
Functions and duties of a quasi-governmental nature to include:
* Organize War Bond drives.
* Organize scrap metal drives.
* Organize "Victory Gardens".
* Organize patriotic gestures.
"held ceremonies for those departing for the military and erected small shrines for those who did not return."
* Ensure and maintain air-raid blackouts.
"he went door to door every night to make sure anyone who had their lights on after dark turned them off, or had their windows 'painted' so that lights didn't show on the street."
This would have been [?] important on both the east and west coasts especially during the early stages of the war. Big cities such as Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York in particular.
AND!
* Maintain a silent and perhaps not so-silent watch over their community [city block]
Keep an eye out for shirkers, malingerers, slackers, deserters, drifters, those unwilling to register for the military draft or allow themselves to be conscripted, etc. Recalcitrant and unpatriotic persons watched for!
Older persons serving in the capacity of block captain performing a task during war time felt to be vital, everyone has a role, and everyone feels they are contributing, a patriotic fever pitch in part the goal, and realized in a way not seen since!!
coolbert.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Big Footprint.
This is coolbert:
Historically here with some instances of the big footprint method being unsuccessful.
The pursuit of an single adversary by a large military force with impedimenta self-defeating. The larger the force the greater amount of "noise" made, the "quarry" instantly alerted, able to take measures and steps to evade capture or death. As it is now in central Africa, the "hunt" for Joseph Kony going to go nowhere?
1. Osama bin Laden. Osama of 9/11 infamy according to Cofer Black at one time having a force of 10,000 or so troops arrayed against him, poised and ready to assault the hideout of the man, nothing coming to fruition from such a large and unwieldy assemblage. Osama finally run to ground and killed by a platoon sized unit of U.S. Navy SEAL's.
2. Eric Robert Rudolph. The Atlanta Bomber. American survivalist and military trained special operations soldier, able to exist and having trained himself to go twenty to thirty days without consuming food of any sort. And when eating, subsisting only on a diet of green beans, oatmeal and sardines. The object repeatedly of massed FBI SWAT teams deploying in strength. Eric knowing the terrain [the Great Smokey Mountains] able to evade and elude those in pursuit always aware of and alert to the efforts of the "hunt".
3. Heroes of Telemark. Norwegian saboteurs [about a dozen strong] responsible for the destruction of the Norsk Hydro facility. Greatly frustrating German atomic bomb development during World War Two. That dozen or some Norwegians escaping a dragnet of 10,000 German troops operating in conventional fashion.
4. Geronimo. American Indian warrior and war chief. Led his Apache warrior band number at most about fifteen men on a rampage repeated frustrating all efforts and attempts at capture. General Miles it is suggested ran an incompetent campaign having no less than 5,000 troops [half the standing active duty American army at the time] at his disposal. That final surrender of Geronimo accomplished by a platoon sized unit of about thirty men to include the famed tracker/translator/frontiersman/stock detective Tom Horn. The predominant number of that 5,000 man force preoccupied with guard and sentry duty, garrison force primarily on-call.
5. Haji Sahib. Haji a man from one hundred years ago leading an anti-British jihad, able to evade capture and his pursuers for a period of twenty years, Haji only finally succumbing to old age! This at a time when the English and their Raj held sway and dominion basically unchallenged!
Perhaps I am overstating the case here? The big footprint effort will succeed, Joseph and his evil minions run to ground, killed or captured, the LRA put of existence, a scourge removed irrevocably and with a great sigh of relief? We hope so but again this Joseph has had MONTHS to prepare for an onslaught and is not a man to be taken lightly. Has broken his "army" into small self-sustaining groups to reform at a later date, and IS FEEDING DISINFORMATION ALL THE WHILE TO HIS PURSUERS? Please do not take Joseph lightly! This is not a done deal.
coolbert.
Historically here with some instances of the big footprint method being unsuccessful.
The pursuit of an single adversary by a large military force with impedimenta self-defeating. The larger the force the greater amount of "noise" made, the "quarry" instantly alerted, able to take measures and steps to evade capture or death. As it is now in central Africa, the "hunt" for Joseph Kony going to go nowhere?
1. Osama bin Laden. Osama of 9/11 infamy according to Cofer Black at one time having a force of 10,000 or so troops arrayed against him, poised and ready to assault the hideout of the man, nothing coming to fruition from such a large and unwieldy assemblage. Osama finally run to ground and killed by a platoon sized unit of U.S. Navy SEAL's.
2. Eric Robert Rudolph. The Atlanta Bomber. American survivalist and military trained special operations soldier, able to exist and having trained himself to go twenty to thirty days without consuming food of any sort. And when eating, subsisting only on a diet of green beans, oatmeal and sardines. The object repeatedly of massed FBI SWAT teams deploying in strength. Eric knowing the terrain [the Great Smokey Mountains] able to evade and elude those in pursuit always aware of and alert to the efforts of the "hunt".
3. Heroes of Telemark. Norwegian saboteurs [about a dozen strong] responsible for the destruction of the Norsk Hydro facility. Greatly frustrating German atomic bomb development during World War Two. That dozen or some Norwegians escaping a dragnet of 10,000 German troops operating in conventional fashion.
4. Geronimo. American Indian warrior and war chief. Led his Apache warrior band number at most about fifteen men on a rampage repeated frustrating all efforts and attempts at capture. General Miles it is suggested ran an incompetent campaign having no less than 5,000 troops [half the standing active duty American army at the time] at his disposal. That final surrender of Geronimo accomplished by a platoon sized unit of about thirty men to include the famed tracker/translator/frontiersman/stock detective Tom Horn. The predominant number of that 5,000 man force preoccupied with guard and sentry duty, garrison force primarily on-call.
5. Haji Sahib. Haji a man from one hundred years ago leading an anti-British jihad, able to evade capture and his pursuers for a period of twenty years, Haji only finally succumbing to old age! This at a time when the English and their Raj held sway and dominion basically unchallenged!
Perhaps I am overstating the case here? The big footprint effort will succeed, Joseph and his evil minions run to ground, killed or captured, the LRA put of existence, a scourge removed irrevocably and with a great sigh of relief? We hope so but again this Joseph has had MONTHS to prepare for an onslaught and is not a man to be taken lightly. Has broken his "army" into small self-sustaining groups to reform at a later date, and IS FEEDING DISINFORMATION ALL THE WHILE TO HIS PURSUERS? Please do not take Joseph lightly! This is not a done deal.
coolbert.
Black Ops.
This is coolbert:
Here from intelNews.org another modern occurrence of military pseudo-operations. Israeli personnel wearing the uniform and driving the vehicles of the adversary [Iran]. Intelligence gathering missions it is alleged to monitor the Iranian nuclear program. Operations into denied territory of the most perilous sort!
This is Mossad or AMAN [military intelligence]? This is not clear.
"Israel ‘conducts espionage incursions into Iran from Kurdish Iraq’"
"The Israelis, according to the Times, deploy twelve-member fully armed teams into Iran . . . the Israeli commandos, who are usually in Iranian military uniforms, are transported to target locations in vehicles made to look like those used by the Iranian military"
"the Israeli commando teams use 'sensitive equipment' to monitor levels of radioactivity and record the magnitude of any explosives tests that might be carried out at those locations"
This is the James Bond type of operation for which failure is not an option. Volunteers, single men without dependents ONLY apply!
Normally the punishment during wartime if captured when wearing the uniform of the enemy is death. In the case of these Israeli probably after a period of terrible and prolonged torture!
coolbert.
Here from intelNews.org another modern occurrence of military pseudo-operations. Israeli personnel wearing the uniform and driving the vehicles of the adversary [Iran]. Intelligence gathering missions it is alleged to monitor the Iranian nuclear program. Operations into denied territory of the most perilous sort!
This is Mossad or AMAN [military intelligence]? This is not clear.
"Israel ‘conducts espionage incursions into Iran from Kurdish Iraq’"
"The Israelis, according to the Times, deploy twelve-member fully armed teams into Iran . . . the Israeli commandos, who are usually in Iranian military uniforms, are transported to target locations in vehicles made to look like those used by the Iranian military"
"the Israeli commando teams use 'sensitive equipment' to monitor levels of radioactivity and record the magnitude of any explosives tests that might be carried out at those locations"
This is the James Bond type of operation for which failure is not an option. Volunteers, single men without dependents ONLY apply!
Normally the punishment during wartime if captured when wearing the uniform of the enemy is death. In the case of these Israeli probably after a period of terrible and prolonged torture!
coolbert.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Wrong?
This is coolbert:
Thanks to Reuters through the Chicago Tribune from yesterday we have this follow-up story on the hunt for Joseph Kony and those remnants of the Lord's Resistance Army [LRA] hiding in the jungle and mountains of central Africa.
Joseph and his minions in the sights of the American Special Operations troops [about 100 of them] deployed since last October to the region. The object to bring Joseph to justice, marshaling the resources of the international community in the process!
"African Union launches US-backed force to hunt Kony"
"JUBA, March 24 (Reuters) - The African Union (AU), backed by the United States, has put together a 5,000-strong military force to hunt down fugitive warlord Joseph Kony, whose profile
has shot up following a celebrity-backed campaign against him."
My instantaneous and intuitive reaction to this article in the Tribune is NO!
NO and emphatically so! This is the big footprint approach and might very well be doomed to failure from the start!
The big footprint approach says that you gather an enormous military force replete with all sorts of trucks, armor if available, helicopters, drones, other fixed wing aircraft, a major military force sweeping an area in pursuit of Joseph and you are guaranteed success. And the bigger the force the greater the guarantee of success.
NO! Joseph has been forewarned for some time now and presumably has taken remedial measures and is well prepared to evade capture or death. That large force too will make A LOT OF NOISE WHEN APPROACHING AND ONLY ALERT THE MISCREANTS MAKING A SUCCESSFUL ENGAGEMENT THAT MUCH LESS LIKELY!
Also, this producer of Kony 2012 was found recently running down the street of San Diego in what was described as an irrational and erratic state. The man was running down the street naked masturbating! My thought was and I would not preclude the possibility that someone that is in league with Joseph [and Joseph is reputed to have backers in high places!] somehow were able [drugs?] to compromise and discredit this producer in revenge for having made the YouTube video that became viral!
On paper the plans to apprehend or kill Joseph appear to be sound. On the ground the reality is far different! NO ONE wants to see this mission fail but make no mistake, NONE of this is going to be easy!
coolbert.
Thanks to Reuters through the Chicago Tribune from yesterday we have this follow-up story on the hunt for Joseph Kony and those remnants of the Lord's Resistance Army [LRA] hiding in the jungle and mountains of central Africa.
Joseph and his minions in the sights of the American Special Operations troops [about 100 of them] deployed since last October to the region. The object to bring Joseph to justice, marshaling the resources of the international community in the process!
"African Union launches US-backed force to hunt Kony"
"JUBA, March 24 (Reuters) - The African Union (AU), backed by the United States, has put together a 5,000-strong military force to hunt down fugitive warlord Joseph Kony, whose profile
has shot up following a celebrity-backed campaign against him."
My instantaneous and intuitive reaction to this article in the Tribune is NO!
NO and emphatically so! This is the big footprint approach and might very well be doomed to failure from the start!
The big footprint approach says that you gather an enormous military force replete with all sorts of trucks, armor if available, helicopters, drones, other fixed wing aircraft, a major military force sweeping an area in pursuit of Joseph and you are guaranteed success. And the bigger the force the greater the guarantee of success.
NO! Joseph has been forewarned for some time now and presumably has taken remedial measures and is well prepared to evade capture or death. That large force too will make A LOT OF NOISE WHEN APPROACHING AND ONLY ALERT THE MISCREANTS MAKING A SUCCESSFUL ENGAGEMENT THAT MUCH LESS LIKELY!
Also, this producer of Kony 2012 was found recently running down the street of San Diego in what was described as an irrational and erratic state. The man was running down the street naked masturbating! My thought was and I would not preclude the possibility that someone that is in league with Joseph [and Joseph is reputed to have backers in high places!] somehow were able [drugs?] to compromise and discredit this producer in revenge for having made the YouTube video that became viral!
On paper the plans to apprehend or kill Joseph appear to be sound. On the ground the reality is far different! NO ONE wants to see this mission fail but make no mistake, NONE of this is going to be easy!
coolbert.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Strange?
This is coolbert:
From the wiki entry for the "Fog of War" we have this admonition from Robert S. McNamara that I find to be strange indeed:
"Ten additional lessons from R.S. McNamara"
"3. We [the U.S.A.] are the most powerful nation in the world—economically, politically, and militarily—and we are likely to remain so for decades ahead. But we are not omniscient. If we cannot persuade other nations with similar interests and similar values of the merits of the proposed use of that power, we should not proceed unilaterally except in the unlikely requirement to defend directly the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii."
American power as enunciated by Robert S McNamara to be used to defend "unilaterally" only the continental United States, the contiguous forty eight states, Alaska and Hawaii. The fifty states constituting the union.
My instantaneous reaction was WHAT ABOUT GUAM? And too, WHAT ABOUT THOSE VARIOUS TREATY ARRANGEMENTS THE UNITED STATES HAS ENTERED INTO WITH OTHER SOVEREIGN NATIONS AROUND THE WORLD?
It is by such misstatements that WARS are started? Nations around the world hostile to the United States and American interests or perceived interests make keen observations with a lack of understanding that leads them to make false and incorrect assumptions of American resolve?
[it is often said that American policy makers quite often do not understand foreign nations we may find ourselves in conflict with. My own perception is that THOSE FOREIGN NATIONS UNDERSTAND US LESS THAN WE UNDERSTAND THEM!!]
SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE EVER SINCE THE KOREAN WAR! The alleged erroneous pronouncements of Dean Acheson often have been cited as a CAUSE of the Korean War, the communist North Korean and their various backers taking comfort in advance that the American military would not intervene as it did!
Policy makers and foreign observers pay attention to the wiki and the documentaries such as the "Fog of War"? Robert is gone now but if he was around I can hear him saying: "let me explain!"!
coolbert.
From the wiki entry for the "Fog of War" we have this admonition from Robert S. McNamara that I find to be strange indeed:
"Ten additional lessons from R.S. McNamara"
"3. We [the U.S.A.] are the most powerful nation in the world—economically, politically, and militarily—and we are likely to remain so for decades ahead. But we are not omniscient. If we cannot persuade other nations with similar interests and similar values of the merits of the proposed use of that power, we should not proceed unilaterally except in the unlikely requirement to defend directly the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii."
American power as enunciated by Robert S McNamara to be used to defend "unilaterally" only the continental United States, the contiguous forty eight states, Alaska and Hawaii. The fifty states constituting the union.
My instantaneous reaction was WHAT ABOUT GUAM? And too, WHAT ABOUT THOSE VARIOUS TREATY ARRANGEMENTS THE UNITED STATES HAS ENTERED INTO WITH OTHER SOVEREIGN NATIONS AROUND THE WORLD?
It is by such misstatements that WARS are started? Nations around the world hostile to the United States and American interests or perceived interests make keen observations with a lack of understanding that leads them to make false and incorrect assumptions of American resolve?
[it is often said that American policy makers quite often do not understand foreign nations we may find ourselves in conflict with. My own perception is that THOSE FOREIGN NATIONS UNDERSTAND US LESS THAN WE UNDERSTAND THEM!!]
SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE EVER SINCE THE KOREAN WAR! The alleged erroneous pronouncements of Dean Acheson often have been cited as a CAUSE of the Korean War, the communist North Korean and their various backers taking comfort in advance that the American military would not intervene as it did!
Policy makers and foreign observers pay attention to the wiki and the documentaries such as the "Fog of War"? Robert is gone now but if he was around I can hear him saying: "let me explain!"!
coolbert.
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