Saturday, August 8, 2009

Meeting.

This is coolbert:

Here thanks to the DEBKAfile some interesting tidbits:

1. During the most recent trip to Israel by Bob Gates and National Security adviser Jones, the two met ONLY with the most highest echelon of the Israeli national security apparatus. The decision makers meeting the decision makers.

On the American side:

* Robert Gates.
* James Jones.

On the Israeli side:

* Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu,
* Defense minister Ehud Barak,
* Chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazy,
* Mossad chief Meir Dagan and
* Military intelligence [AMAN] head Amos Yadlin.

This is just about AS HEAVY AS IT GETS!!!

As you call imagine, the topic was Iran and the course of action to be taken - - BY THE U.S. - - THE ISRAELI TOLD TO "cool their jets"!! [literally and figuratively so!] Actions on the part of the U.S. to include:

* 1. Diplomatic engagement as far as it will go, giving it a chance to take off up until early September.
* 2. Failing diplomacy, the phased introduction of increasingly harsh sanctions against Iran.
* 3. If Iran continues to forge ahead with its nuclear and missile development, the US will resort to its military options.

2. Military options against Iran, if and when the decision is made - - to go - - will include the use of the latest incarnation [MOP] of the "Grand Slam" bomb. A weapon that has an ability to penetrate many feet of hardened overburden prior to detonation. Able to take out buried uranium [plutonium] processing plants, those plants manufacturing the "makings" of a nuclear weapon.

"if Congress shifts enough funds . . . [the] B-2 bomber would be capable of carrying the non-nuclear, 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator, MOP which is designed to destroy deeply buried bunkers, by July 2010."

"The precision-guided weapon carries more than 5,300 pounds of explosives and would be the biggest conventional bomb the US has ever used. It can deliver more than 10 times the explosive power of its predecessor, the 2,000-pound BLU-109, and penetrate to a depth of 61 meters."

[normally the ratio of explosives to total weight of aerial-delivered ordnance is quite high. In the case of MOP, only one-sixth of the weapons weight is in actual explosive. The remainder of the weight being in protective metal to shield the "innards" of the bomb during penetration of rock and other protective overburden.]

3. "Burma is building secret nuclear reactor and plutonium plant under northern mountain with North Korean help."

This too is surprising? Burma is NOT seen as a player on the world stage and not thought to even entertain the notion of even dabbling in weapons of mass destruction? A repressive and brutal military dictatorship - - YES - - that is readily acknowledged. But a nuclear reactor and plant for processing plutonium? That is a new one!

Recall the recent incident where the North Korean merchant vessel was being tracked and shadowed en route to Burma. Was thought to be carrying munitions and other proscribed materials. Who knows what was on that ship? Turned around and returned to home port when the "heat" was applied.

Well, we have all about one year until the final decision will be made? North Korea and Iran BOTH are still on the table?

This world is a dangerous place!

coolbert.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Loose Lips II - - Hillary.

This is coolbert:

Back to the subject of diplomatic gaffes. Loose, inadvertent, perhaps even intemperate "wording", mis-perceived in certain quarters, the result being - - WAR!!

"Hillary Clinton's loose talk on Iran"

"Her idea of a US ‘defense umbrella’ against Iranian nukes may only trigger war."

"Last week, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton suggested the US may extend a 'defense umbrella' over friendly nations in the Middle East 'once' Iran has a nuclear weapon.'"

ONCE!

"Oops. She didn't really mean it exactly that way, her aides said. But the comment nonetheless suggests President Obama may be ready to accept a nuclear-armed Iran."

Again, it is not so much the reality that counts but the perception of reality that counts. Israeli policy makers can reasonably infer that U.S. diplomats have decided that in the eventuality that Iran DOES acquire nuclear weapons, an "acceptance" can be tolerated, contingencies having already been explored and decided upon!?

"Israel isn't ready to accept an Iran with nuclear capability,"

A message is being sent here that is inadvertent - - but nonetheless being sent and received - - that will persuade the Israeli that the U.S. is not so resolute as is claimed regarding the acquisition by Iran of atomic weaponry?

Israel will feel compelled to act - - sooner than later - - to take various "measures" and "steps" - - preventing the Iranian from bringing to fruition their nuclear weapons program? A lack of "perceived" American resolve will ONLY hasten a greater degree of resolve on the part of the Israeli? This "resolve" will have as a consequence - - WAR!

"She didn't really mean it exactly that way". NO, she probably really did mean it that way. Merely stating what is undeclared policy that has been decided upon?

"One loose lip can sink a ship" - - OR start a war?

coolbert.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Cinque Terre.

This is coolbert:

Rick Steves the travel adventure guide is touring the Cinque Terre. The "Five Lands". Picturesque, even quaint towns of the Italian coastline, actually considered part of the Riviera!

"Cinque Terre is a rugged portion of coast on the Italian Riviera. It is in the Liguria region of Italy, to the west of the city of La Spezia. "'the Five Lands' comprises five villages: Monterosso al Mare, Vernazza, Corniglia, Manarola, and Riomaggiore."

. . . .

"The Cinque Terre is noted for its beauty. Over centuries, people have carefully built terraces on the rugged, steep landscape right up to the cliffs that overlook the sea. Part of its charm is the lack of visible 'modern' development . . . cars cannot reach it from the outside. It is a very popular tourist destination."

Cinque Terre, a popular tourist destination, each of the five towns isolated and having a character of its own. Each town too having a common denominator, a "castle". NOT actually a castle as is generally understood, but rather a fortified tower. A refuge for the towns people in a time of danger.

Danger that came in the form of Muslim slave raids. Raids that endangered the southern coastline of Europe for a period of about a thousand years.

A fortified tower, build on dominant terrain, very rugged at that, maintaining a guard, a sentinel, to watch for the approach of Muslim corsairs. Primarily from North Africa, and often referred to as Turks. A fortified tower offering refuge to the towns people when a slave raid was made manifest, allowing possible defense and protection where no other was possible!

For a period of about a thousand years, the Muslim corsairs were a threat of the first magnitude. European slaves were referred to as "white gold", DURING ONE FIFTY YEAR PERIOD IT IS ESTIMATED THAT PERHAPS AS MANY EUROPEANS WERE TAKEN AS SLAVES TO AFRICA AS WERE AFRICAN SLAVES TAKEN FROM AFRICA AND SENT TO THE "NEW WORLD"!!!

"they [Barbary Pirates] engaged in Razzias, raids on European coastal towns, to capture Christian slaves to sell at slave markets in places such as Algeria and Morocco."

"long stretches of coast in Spain and Italy were almost completely abandoned by their inhabitants, discouraging settlement until the 19th century. From the 16th to 19th century, pirates captured an estimated 800,000 to 1.25 million Europeans as slaves"

The towns of Cinque Terre were terribly isolated and very vulnerable to attack. The locals had to rely upon themselves for defense, if and when the attack came. The consequences for not defending yourself was slavery! Fortified towers were the ONLY answer available and provided as least a "possible"!

As peaceful, quiet, and quaint as Cinque Terre is now, it must be remembered that for a period of centuries - - the folks of the various villages had to keep a constant watchfulness, and be prepared to fight, at a moments notice!

HEY - - no one said life was easy!

coolbert.

Loose Lips I - - Biden.

This is coolbert:

"It is not so much reality that counts as the perception of reality that counts!" - - J. Jackson.


"just to be clear here"


"Loose lips sink ships" AND SOMETIMES CAN START WARS TOO!!??

"Loose lips sink ships and, for America's top diplomats, they can also sink countries into war."

Diplomatic gaffes, verbal blunders, a misstating of a "position", top diplomats making mistakes, blurting out pronouncements that they later regret, have in the past led to war? Nations in potential conflict leading up to warfare - - reacting to statements that rightly or wrongly are perceived as being to the advantage or detriment of the concerned parties [those in conflict], outright combat being the result?

Most recently, concerns over the purported nuclear program of Iran, and the threat such a weaponized program poses to Israel has resulted in some "poor choices of words" by American officials from the highest echelon.

Comment - - gaffes - - if you will - - that have led SOME to believe a go-ahead is being given for Israel to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities, at do so at their discretion?

1. Here, the recent exchange between Vice-President Biden [a self-proclaimed foreign affairs "expert"] and G. Stephanopoulos, TV pundit.

STEPHANOPOULOS: "And meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it pretty clear that he agreed with President Obama to give until the end of the year for this whole process of engagement to work. After that, he's prepared to make [take?] matters into his own hands."

"Is that the right approach?"

BIDEN: "Look, Israel can determine for itself -- it's a sovereign nation -- what's in their interest and what they decide to do relative to Iran and anyone else."

STEPHANOPOULOS: "Whether we agree or not?"

BIDEN: "Whether we agree or not. They're entitled to do that. Any sovereign nation is entitled to do that. But there is no pressure from any nation that's going to alter our behavior as to how to proceed."

STEPHANOPOULOS: "But just to be clear here, if the Israelis decide Iran is an existential threat, they have to take out the nuclear program, militarily the United States will not stand in the way?"

BIDEN: "Look, we cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do when they make a determination, if they make a determination that they're existentially threatened and their survival is threatened by another country"

The inference that can be made here is quite clear. If Israel feels that it is absolutely necessity to prevent the Iranian from obtaining nuclear weapons - - as a sovereign nation it has every right to make the decision it feels is best for itself and act - - EVEN TO LAUNCH WITHOUT AMERICAN "PERMISSION" A PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE ON THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES - - the go-ahead signal now having been given!!

Does anyone disagree with this inference? Can it be said that Joe Biden, the Vice-President, seems to relish making controversial comments and intrude in a manner he should not with pronouncements. This is not new and perhaps is even deliberate?

coolbert.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Dan Fodio.

This is coolbert:

"a divinely inspired 'reformer of Islam'"


Back to the subject of Nigeria. Just slightly over two hundred years ago, there WAS a successful African Islamic insurrection - - the result of which was the establishment of an Empire, incorporating portions of what is now Nigeria - - the likes of which are still remembered:

"Muslims mark 200th anniversary [2004] of Africa's largest Islamic empire, appealing for peace"

"SOKOTO, Nigeria – Saluted by sword-waving Muslim warriors on horses and camels, African presidents and emirs on Sunday celebrated the 200th anniversary of a holy war that launched the sub-Sahara's greatest Islamic empire"

An insurrection, a jihad, a WAR, in every sense of the word, proclaimed and led by a charismatic Islamic leader, dan Fodio.

"Shaihu Usman dan Fodio . . . 1754 - 1817) was the founder of the Sokoto Caliphate in 1809, a religious teacher, writer and Islamic reformer."

"He developed a critique of existing African Muslim elites for what he saw as their greed, paganism, or violation of the standards of Sharia law, and heavy taxation"

"Usman dan Fodio was proclaimed . . . Leader of the Faithful . . . This made him political as well as religious leader, giving him the authority to declare and pursue a Jihad, raise an army and become its commander [1804]"

"Some followers consider dan Fodio to have been a Mujaddid, a divinely inspired 'reformer of Islam'."

In this regard, being divinely inspired, dan Fodio resembles the Mahdi of the Sudan. NOT only a spiritual leaders and "reformer", but also a temporal and military leader as well!! Inspiring followers to lay down their lives quite willingly.

"After only a few short years of the Fulani War, dan Fodio found himself in command of the largest state in Africa, the Fulani Empire" [jihad to dan Fodio meant NOT merely a striving for spiritual and moral perfection, it meant WAR as the word is generally understood - - KILLING!]

Dan Fodio yesterday, who tomorrow? This is the thinking among some Muslims of what is called sub-Saharan Africa?

coolbert.

Nigeria.

This is coolbert:

“Western education is a sin.”


More turmoil in Nigeria. The latest mass uprising has been squashed, and with a large loss of life on the part of the "militants". Persons belonging to an Islamic sect described as the "Nigerian Taliban"!

1. "Mass burial follows violent Islamist uprising"

"Nigerian authorities have given a mass burial to victims of last week's Islamist uprising in the north-eastern city of Maiduguri. Local reports put the number of killed at 700."

2. "Nigeria’s mysterious ‘Taliban’"

"Little was known about Nigeria’s Boko Haram when deadly clashes broke out in northern Nigeria in July. Also known as the 'Nigerian Taliban', the group emerged in 2004, and its aim is the imposition of strict Islamic law."

We have not heard the last of this one? The leaders of the sect and in command during the uprising have been killed. And killed WHILE IN POLICE CUSTODY! "Offed" by summary execution sans judicial process!!

"Mohammed Yusuf, the sect’s spiritual head, who was arrested and shot dead by the police on July 30. Security forces announced on the same day that they had killed his deputy, Abubakar Shekau."

Comments:

* Nigeria is a country on the brink? Potentially very wealthy, but poverty stricken in a way it should not be. Many restive populations and movements desire "change", and are willing to use violence, armed insurrection, to gain that "change".

"Nigeria has more than 200 ethnic groups, and the country, Africa’s most populous, is divided along ethnic and religious lines. Northern regions are mostly inhabited by Muslims while the country’s south is predominantly Christian"

* Nigerian oil is among, if not, the most favored in the world. What is called "sweet crude", without contaminants and highly prized for refining. MOST NIGERIAN OIL IS SHIPPED WITHOUT DELAY TO THE U.S. THE MOMENT IS BROUGHT OUT OF THE GROUND!

* The focus of the Nigerian military - - is 90 % internal? There is very little external threat the Nigerian generals have to worry about? Keeping restive populations - - ready to explode at a moments notice - - under control - - is much more the concern of the central government.

But - - we have hardly heard the last from these Nigerian Islamic sects? Or from other Nigerian dissidents as well? Nigeria as a political entity is in peril? A disintegration that only military force can avert?

coolbert.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Icebreaker?

This is coolbert:

The Arctic is heating up again. Figuratively as well as literally.

"Canadian and U.S. icebreakers to map uncharted Arctic waters"

American and Canadian icebreakers, working in tandem and in a cooperative manner, making depth soundings - - charting the abysmal depths of the Arctic Ocean, both sides NOW in concert, even fully realizing that the data as gathered may lead to future disputes! This "mapping" occurring right now - - as we speak! A quasi-military expedition, the American Coast Guard representing American interests.

"A pair of red-hulled icebreakers – one Canadian, one American – will batter their way north into uncharted, ice-infested waters next week, seeking to buttress claims to the vast undersea riches at the top of the world."

Assets available for this sort of "mapping" mission are indeed sparse?

"Neither country has even a single polar-class icebreaker, unlike the nuclear-powered fleet of Russian vessels that are capable of slicing a path to the North Pole."

"In the thinning summer ice, the Canadian and American ships will take turns clearing a path on the month-long mapping expedition"

Comments:

* Mapping and charting of the ocean bottom in Arctic waters is anything but routine, even in modern times! What is at question here is determining the exact dimensions of the continental shelf and sedimentary deposits!

* The U.S. and Canada are actually in dispute over Arctic waters, this mission being one of many that eventually will result in a clarification over "territorial" underwater claims!

* American submarines have for many decades carried out a clandestine survey of the Arctic Ocean, data that will not be shared with Canada!

"the reams of undersea mapping data collected by U.S. nuclear submarines, which prowled under the Arctic ice for decades during the Cold War, won't be made available to Canada as it prepares its Arctic claim."

[Those reams of data too as collected over the years by the "ice island" U.S. military "bases" is public knowledge now. Some sort of exchange, strongly promoted by VP Al Gore occurred between the Russians and U.S. during the Clinton administration?]

* Canada too has a special interest in the fabled Northwest Passage, Arctic waters disputed as being OF AN INTERNATIONAL NATURE, CONTRARY TO CANADIAN CLAIMS!!

"Russian icebreakers, on charter, routinely carry tourists through the Northwest Passage claimed by Canada."

"it [United States] dismisses Ottawa's argument that the Northwest Passage is an internal waterway rather than an international strait"

The Arctic - - is "heating up" - - in a variety of ways - - militarily too. Unanticipated just a few years ago? NOW, a "hot" topic!

coolbert.