Svensk.

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"'For a nation for whom peace has been a pleasant companion for almost 210 years, the idea that it is an immovable constant is conveniently close at hand. But taking comfort in this conclusion has become more dangerous than it has been for a very long time,'" - Bohlin.

Yet again, sober and frightening, headlines alarmist in nature from the English tabloid Daily Mail. This Swedes are letting you know quite openly and frankly, we are preparing for World War III.

1. "Sweden is warned to 'brace for war': Civil Defense minister tells citizens to 'get moving' and prepare for the end of 210 years of peace as country bids to join NATO in face of Russia tensions"

From https://www.dailymail.co.uk | By DAVID AVERRE and PERKIN AMALARAJ |  10 January 2024.

"Minister urged Swedish citizens to ask themselves 'who are you if war comes?'"

"Comes as Zelensky said allies must 'finish' Putin to avoid destruction of Ukraine"

2. "Panicked Swedish youths flood helpline with calls after minister warned 'there could be war' and urged people to prepare for conflict in face of Russia tensions - as row breaks out over his 'alarming' speech"

"Minister urged Swedish citizens to ask themselves 'who are you if war comes?'"

 From https://www.dailymail.co.uk | By DAVID AVERRE | 11 January 2024.

"Sweden's mental health helplines have been flooded with calls from youths scared by the prospect of war after top defense officials said citizens must ready themselves for a potential armed conflict".

"Children's rights organization Bris said its phone operators reported a huge uptick in the number of callers worried about war coming to Sweden, with spokeswoman Maja Dahl slamming the government's apparent lack of preparation around the alarming announcement made at the weekend."

Traumatic shock to Swedish young people, especially those of military age I might even think extreme. Few if anybody ever thought such a thing was going to happen, even a few years ago. Although some in the higher echelons of government and in the military such a prospect and eventuality was seen as being a possible. 

Northmen! Make ready!

coolbert.

18 Months.

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Here begins several blog entries thanks to the English Daily Mail tabloid with exceedingly alarmist and frightening headlines perhaps even markedly so! Even causing panic in some quarters!

"Germany is preparing for Putin attack against NATO in 2025: Leaked secret plans reveal step-by-step how Russia will escalate conflict to all-out war in 18 months"

"Secret documents from German Defense ministry reveal doomsday guide"

From https://www.dailymail.co.uk | By RACHAEL BUNYAN |  15 January 2024. 

"Secret documents from the German Ministry of Defence reveal a step-by-step doomsday guide on how Russia will escalate the conflict in Ukraine to an all-out war in just 18 months."

"The leaked plans, published by German newspaper Bild, reveal in detail the path to a Third World War with Putin using Belarus as a launching pad for an invasion - as he did in February 2022 for his war in Ukraine."

"Germany is preparing for Vladimir Putin's forces to attack NATO in 2025, according to leaked secret plans."

Devoted readers to the blog I highly encourage without qualification or reservation that each and everyone of you read the entire Daily Mail article! Daily Mail you do a very good job of covering military affairs. People need to take note of this sort of stuff, even if it is alarmist and frightening they need to know.

coolbert.

M & C.

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M & C = Mainstay & Coot. Russian military aviation assets blasted out of the sky again.

Ukrainian possesses one additional wunderwaffen? A secret weapon able to engage at distance Russian valuable military aviation assets over the Azov Sea.

The Russian, once more big-time egg on face!

"'Egg on face': It often implies that you have made a serious mistake, but more strictly it indicates that something you have done (or some turn of events) has left you looking embarrassed or foolish."

"Ukraine downs two Russian military command and reconnaissance planes in huge blow for Putin"

From https://www.dailymail.co.uk | By PERKIN AMALARAJ and WILL STEWART |  15 January 2024.

* "Ukraine said it shot down two Russian military command aircraft * "It took out the £260 million A-50 and the IL-22 aerial command plane" * "Both were down down over the Sea of Azov"

"Ukraine said on Monday that it downed two Russian military command aircraft over the Sea of Asov, saying it had carried out a 'successful' mission against Moscow's forces."

"Officials said the country's air force took out an A-50 radar-detection plane worth £260 million [$310 million USD], as well as an IL-22 aerial command plane, as they flew over the Sea of Azov on Sunday."

These warplanes not cheap nor easily manufactured in a timely manner. Training personnel to a degree of proficiency rather protracted? This is indeed a calamity for the Russian or at least I would think so. Russian aviation important assets not replaced in an expeditious fashion.

Hey, nobody ever said war is going to be easy did they?

coolbert.

Digest.

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That situation Ukraine conflict now greatly resembles the seven-year standoff between the Russian and Ukrainian military at the end of the Donbass War 2015.

The Russian has already adopted the strategy of active defense now also will the Ukrainian?

"To defeat Putin in a long war, Ukraine must switch to active defense in 2024"

"As Russia’s full-scale invasion approaches the two-year mark, it is vital for Ukraine’s military and political leadership to properly digest the lessons of 2022 and 2023."

From https://www.atlanticcouncil.org  | By Mykola Bielieskov | January 4, 2024.

"The most important conclusion to draw from the past two years of fighting is the dominance of defensive warfare over offensive operations. This has been demonstrated again and again, beginning with the failure of Russia’s initial blitzkrieg in the first month of the war."

Defense is a stronger form of combat easier to do. You can accomplish more with less! 

"A second key lesson is the importance of balancing political goals with military capabilities. Since February 2022, political considerations have forced both Russia and Ukraine to embark on ill-fated offensives with insufficient forces, leading to heavy losses."

Military standoff Ukraine conflict? Prolonged trench warfare ala WW1 style neither side can prevail. We are going to resuming the situation as it was for seven-years beginning in 2015. I feel regrettably it is so.

coolbert.

Gumenyuk.

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Continuing Russian recruiting goals the Ukraine Conflict. The Russian still not finding a equitable and just solution. Manpower shortage now severe and has been for sometime. The bottom of the barrel is being scraped. Novel and innovative ways attempted to alleviate the problem but not necessarily the best ways.

"Convicted Russian Mayor Has Prison Sentence Cut in Exchange for Fighting in Ukraine"

From BREITBART LONDON  | 14 Jan 2024.

"(AP) — A disgraced former Russian mayor convicted over bribery had his prison sentence cut short after signing a contract to fight with Russia’s military in Ukraine, local media reported Sunday."

"Oleg Gumenyuk, who served as mayor of the far eastern city and cultural hub of Vladivostok between 2018 and 2021, was convicted last year of accepting bribes worth 38 million roubles (about $432,000) and sentenced to 12 years imprisonment."

See previous and most recent blog entries as applicable recruiting woes the Russian army special military operation:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/debtor.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/01/recruits-ru.html

coolbert.

Smersh.

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I'm looking right you comrade!!

 "Smersh: Why Putin has resurrected Stalin’s feared anti-spy unit"

"Revival of WWII-era ‘death to spies’ counterintelligence agency signals rising clampdown on all forms of dissent in wartime Russia"

From https://asiatimes.com | By MARINA MIRON and ROD THORNTON | JANUARY 13, 2024 |

"A man under arrest by Russian internal security forces was seen confessing to a 'crime', in video posted on January 2. He had been apprehended after allegedly posting a video on social media that purportedly showed air defenses near the Russian city of Belgorod. This city, on the border with Ukraine, was the target of Ukrainian missile attacks on the same day. What was notable, though, about this confessional was that the man was flanked by two internal security officers who had the word Smersh emblazoned on the backs of their jackets."

SMERSH strictly a wartime provision. Red army in 1941, Russian army in 2023. Counter-intelligence the goal of wishes to capture partisans, spies, saboteurs and any other persons of obvious negative attitude toward the Russian in territories occupied by the Russian army special military operation SMO.

Person who’s attitude toward a special military operation the Ukraine Conflict less on satisfactory. Will also be taking to task those persons recalcitrant and not willing to go with the program according to standards of the Russian army.

Rebellious, defiant, stubborn, intractable, obstreperous, willful, wayward, disobedient, insubordinate, unruly, balky, contrary.

NEED I repeat? Beware comrade! I am looking right at you!

coolbert.

Choppers.

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"Wunderwaffe generally refers to a universal solution which solves all problems related to a particular issue, mostly used ironically for its illusionary nature."

TOP SECRET UKRAINE!

Wonder weapon the Ukraine conflict. The Ukrainian military now able to blast dozens of Russian helicopters out of the sky with absolute impunity? It does sound too good to be true.

We have heard of this before. This will represent a game changer just that one thing that puts Ukrainians over the top, a decisive advantage over the Russian.

"game changer: noun - a newly introduced element or factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way"

"Two Dozen Russian Helicopters Downed in One Day with 'Secret Weapon' — Kyiv"

From Newsweek ^ | Jan. 12, 2024 | Aleks Phillips  |  the tip from https://freerepublic.com

"Ukrainian forces destroyed 26 Russian helicopters in a single day using an unknown long-range weapon supplied by Kyiv's allies, Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed. During a press conference with journalists in Latvia on Thursday, the Ukrainian president remained light on details when discussing the use of the mystery weapon, not disclosing which country had provided the system, how long it had been in operation or when it had been used against the helicopters."

With regard to wonder weapon top secret as a game changer, the psychological damage in some ways greater than the actual physical damage

A top-secret wonder weapon, when employed, however, must be used in prodigious numbers, overwhelming the enemy, the idea again being more psychological and physical. Your adversary has no counter and is totally at your mercy.

"It’s a previously unknown weapon which is unveiled at the perfect moment for a major strategic advantage."

To reiterate, the use of top-secret wonder weapon must never be done on an onesie-twosie scale! Use only on a mass scale for greatest effectiveness.

"Onesie-twosie: adverb - (idiomatic) Individually or in very small groups, rather in larger batches."

coolbert.