Unpredictable.

This is coolbert:

"Be bold but not too bold" - Von Moltke the Younger.

From the Internet website of the esteemed Israeli professor military theorist and historian Martin Van Creveld and as usual thanks to same.

"Guest Article: The Greatest Danger"

POSTED ON JANUARY 5, 2023 BY MARTIN VAN CREVELD

Guest article By William S. Lind*

"An article in the December 9, 2022 Wall Street Journal brought some rare good strategic news about the war in Ukraine.  It seems that a few of Ukraine’s allies understand that a complete Russian defeat could bring about the dissolution of the Russian state, and that this represents the worst possible outcome."

"The Journal article, 'Ukraine Minister Urges Bold Support from Western Allies,'" reports that:

"Ukraine’s foreign minister called on the country’s allies not to fear a possible breakup of the Russian state as a consequence of the war. . .

Though Kyiv’s Western allies are united over the goal of preventing a Ukrainian defeat, not all embrace the objective of a full-blown Ukrainian military victory. . . 

Some of these allies worry that such an outcome could destabilize the nuclear-armed Russian state, potentially leading to its fragmentation and wide-scale unrest, with unpredictable global consequences."

Recall that military defeat of the Imperial Russian army in 1905 and 1917 led to drastic political change; a brutal civil war; eventual victory of the communists with all that meant for the international order!!

Read the entire article by William Lind I recommend highly without qualification.

"There is no substitute for victory!" - D. Mac Arthur.

coolbert.