Chum.

This is coolbert:

"Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war" - Shakespeare.

An apple doesn't fall very far from the tree!! Think the father Simon Mann and now the son Jack Mann!

"EXCLUSIVE: Prince Harry's polo chum detained at airport in war-torn Libya after Maltese police challenged claim he was on mission to deliver medical training"

By MARK NICOL DIPLOMACY EDITOR FOR THE DAILY MAIL | 3 January 2023.

* "UN finds there was no breach of sanctions and no rules were breached"  * "Jack Mann was stopped moments before boarding private jet bound for the state" * "Maltese police challenged his claim to be delivering medical training to Libya"  * "The Foreign Office advises UK citizens against travel to the North African state" * "Mann recently appeared in the fourth episode of Sussexes' Netflix documentary"  

"One of Prince Harry’s closest friends was detained by security officials in war-torn Libya."

[....]

"Jack Mann, who served with the British Army in Iraq and Afghanistan, set up the private security company Alma Risk in 2015. He previously worked in Libya as country manager for another UK security company, Aegis Defense Services."

As for the adage that the apple does not fall fall far from the tree please recall from over a decade ago now the strange case of the father Simon Mann. Simon fomenting a coup d’état against the nation of Equatorial Guinea which became abortive. Simon ended up spending at least five years in prison for his failed efforts at coup d’état. Simon also moved in high circles knowing Mark Thatcher the son of Lady Thatcher. It seems that Jack is following in the footsteps of his father at least to some degree also having persons in high status who are his friends and even personal confidants.

For those of you who are interested, go to this web site and see the origins and meaning of the Shakespearean phrase: "Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war"

coolbert.

Ukrenergo.

This is coolbert:

Ukrainians rest assured you will not freeze to death in the dark this winter.

Ukraine is: resilient, adaptable, resourceful, determined. These guys are not quitters.

"Expert gives five reasons why Ukraine’s energy system is withstanding Russian attacks"

January 8, 2023 | "The New Voice of Ukraine".

"There was no significant damage to the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the aftermath of two days of Russian mass missile and drone attacks during the New Year's holidays. Moreover, the threat of full blackout of the country seems to have receded a little."

[....]

* "The first reason is the strengthening of the air defense in the past months."

* "The second reason is the Ukrainian Armed Forces have learned to attack the enemy deep inside its territory, targeting the military airfields and other supporting facilities in particular."

* "The third reason is Ukrainian energy engineers have adopted more flexible and effective working protocols to limit the scale of damage"

* "The fourth reason is the higher volume of energy equipment supplied to Ukraine by its partners, as well as the funding providing for emergency needs."

* "The fifth reason is the depletion of Russian missile stocks, so they are no longer able to launch a hundred missiles against Ukraine in a time, for example."

Indeed if this all be true then the mass of bombardment by cruise missiles and kamikaze drone from the Russian directed against the Ukrainian electrical grid system is going to fail

The will of the Ukrainian people to continue to fight seems to be strong. Indeed again the Russian bombardment directed against Ukrainian infrastructure primarily the electrical power grid has only strengthened resolved of  the Ukrainian people. Like as it was in World War II with the British and German civilian population and also with the North Vietnamese during the Second Indochina War resulting in morale being strengthened rather than reduced by strategic bombardment.

President Vlad of Russia has stepped in it again and it seems big time! When you throw the whole of your military power at the adversary and they [Ukrainian] continues to defy you and resist you know your [Russian] means and methods are not only failing but even counter-productive.

coolbert.

Lady R II.

This is coolbert:

From the Internet website "Bayou Renaissance Man" Peter Grant [the nom de plume of the South African expatriate now American citizen] a veteran of the South African Border War his observations and comments the recent visit the Russian flagged merchant vessel Lady R to the South African port of Simonstown.

"Is Russia buying weapons from South Africa?"

January 11, 2023.

"I [Bayou] noted with interest a Wall Street Journal report that a Russian vessel recently spent a couple of days loading cargo at Simonstown, the premier naval port in South Africa."

Read as extracted those comments of Peter Grant the type of armaments if any that might be sent from South African munitions stores to the Russians:

"South Africa used to have a large and sophisticated armaments industry, right through the 1990's.  However, it's fallen into decline since then, and today is not a major factor in the world's arms trade.  I'm not sure it would have much in the way of hi-tech equipment that Russia could use; its indigenous anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles are very different from their Russian equivalents, and it would take considerable effort to train Russian personnel to operate them.  However, South Africa could probably provide artillery and mortar ammunition, and possibly also locally manufactured equivalents of old-model Soviet equipment."

"Given that Russia is reportedly buying hundreds of thousands of rounds of artillery ammunition from North Korea, it might well have extended its purchasing network to South Africa as well.  Also, given that South Africa is part of the BRICS partnership (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), it would probably be willing to sell military hardware to Russia, perhaps in exchange for things South Africa needs."

Perhaps in this particular instance more than anything else solidarity or mere appearance with the BRICS partnership the greatest concern to the South Africans?

Indeed at least from my perspective this entire affair does seems to be quite peculiar.

coolbert.

Definitive.

This is coolbert:

The Ukraine Conflict will end when and how exactly?

See an article the Ukrainian perspective six scenarios an end to the Conflict.

"On all fronts: Six scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine, and what the country can expect"

 January 8, 2023  | "The New Voice of Ukraine".

"The Russian invasion of Ukraine was the defining event of 2022 not only for our country, but also for Europe and global security in general. Therefore, the key question for politicians, businessmen, and ordinary citizens is whether the war will end in 2023. Both the trends of economic development and domestic political life, as well as the international situation, will depend on this."

"Unfortunately, there is no clear and unambiguous answer yet. But some outlines of the further course of events have already been outlined, so it is possible to determine probable political scenarios for the future."

"Let us first consider the contingencies for the end of the war which are the least probable. For example, #1: a Russian military victory."

Devoted readers to the blogger are encouraged strongly without qualification or reservation to read the entire article. Play close attention to scenarios # 2,  #3,  #4,  #5,  #6!

As to a Russian military victory at this stage in the game unless something dramatic happens at least in my opinion there is not a whole lot of chance the Russian will totally 100% militarily prevail! Victory for the Russian in the traditional and classical sense. 1. The obliteration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces [UAF]. 2. The total occupation of Ukrainian territory. 3. Breaking of the will of the Ukrainian people to further resist. This is not going to occur!

Indeed a Russian military conquest of Ukraine in the traditional manner will be the start of an insurgency / guerrilla / low-intensity war the Ukrainian people their desire / motivation / ability for resistance indisputable!

coolbert.

Lady R.

This is coolbert:

Just from a month ago the arrival of the Russian flagged merchant vessel in Simon’s Town port South Africa causing a minor stir.

"Unexpected arrival of Russian ship in Simon’s Town raises eyebrows"

From South African "defenceWeb" | -8th Dec 2022. Thanks in part to the tip from Abe.

"The arrival of a Russian cargo ship in Simon’s Town, the home port of the SA Navy (SAN) fleet, is believed to be a 'ship in distress' event with no confirmation – as yet – from either the Navy or South African maritime authorities."

"The vessel, Lady R, is an 18-year-old roll-on/roll-off container carrier with a carrying gross tonnage of 7 260. She sails under the flag of the Russian Federation with her home port listed as Astrakhan."

"At least one South African media outlet has the Lady R as being sanctioned by the United States (US) Treasury Department since the war in Ukraine started earlier this year."

"Former SAN [South African Navy] officers told 'defenceWeb' while it was unusual for a commercial vessel to use the naval harbor it was 'accepted' for mechanical and other emergencies."

That speculation was at the time of docking was that the Lady R was going to load war munitions as needed for the Ukraine Conflict. Whatever type of munitions the South Africans had that the Russian did not have unspecified! [Lady R riding "high" in the water at docking!]

Now this:

"JOHANNESBURG— A Russian merchant ship [Lady R] whose owner has allegedly carried weapons for the Kremlin turned off its transponder last month before surreptitiously docking at South Africa’s largest naval base, where it delivered and loaded unidentified cargoes, according to witnesses and a senior U.S. official. South Africa has declined to say what the ship was carrying or what was loaded onto it at the Simon’s Town navy base. The country’s defense minister shrugged off U.S. concerns, saying Washington 'threatens Africa, not just South Africa, of having anything that is even smelling of Russia.'”

Neither confirmed or denied. Well, you might expect that! Lady R you will be watched!

coolbert.

HAWK.

This is coolbert:

"PDA allows the United States to transfer defense articles and services from stocks quickly without congressional approval in response to an emergency."

HAWK American anti-aircraft missile to the Ukraine? American missiles of rather ancient vintage [albeit with a whole series of decades-long incremental improvements] but WITHOUT demonstrable proven worth in a combat environment.

HAWK = Homing All the Way Killer. I hope so.

"Exclusive: U.S. considers HAWK air defense equipment for Ukraine"

From www.reuters.com the story By Mike Stone

Originally reported in October the transfer of HAWK missiles now seems to be imminent.

"WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The United States is considering sending older HAWK air defense equipment from storage to Ukraine to help it defend against Russian drone and cruise missile attacks, two U.S. officials told Reuters."

"The HAWK interceptor missiles would be an upgrade to the Stinger missile systems - a smaller, shorter range air defense system - that the United States has already sent to blunt Russia's invasion."

"The Biden administration would use the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) to transfer the HAWK equipment which is based on Vietnam-era technology, but has been upgraded several times."

OLDER missiles and technology as from the "Vietnam-era" yes indeed! Honestly, I had thought these HAWK had been phased out and removed from the inventory a long time ago!

Honestly also I hope we don't have a repetition of the South Korean Nike Hercules missile ageing dilemma from several decades ago.

Antiquated South Korean Nike Hercules anti-aircraft missiles [of American manufacture] on the launch pad ready for combat solid-fuel rocket engines "having aged with chemical deterioration of the solid-fuel engines and having a 'shelf-life' far less than anticipated".

HOPEFULLY NOT THE SAME FOR HAWK!

coolbert.

S & G.

This is coolbert:

 S & G =Salt and Gypsum.

Yevgenyy has mercenaries! Yevgenyy has hackers! Yevgenyy wants salt and gypsum??

This is what the battle for Bakhmut is all about??

S & G = Salt and gypsum.

"Russian mercenary boss says wants Ukraine's Bakhmut for its 'underground cities'"

From www.yahoo.com By Andrew Osborn January 7, 2023 that original story Reuters.

"LONDON (Reuters) - The founder of Russia's most high-profile mercenary group said on Saturday he wanted his forces and the regular Russian army to capture the small city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine because it possessed 'underground cities' that can hold troops and tanks."

"Russia's grinding more than five months-long push to try to take Bakhmut has puzzled some Western military analysts who have said that heavy losses incurred on the Russian side and the fact that Ukraine has built defensive lines to fall back to nearby mean any Russian victory there, if it happens, would be pyrrhic."

[....]

"A White House official said on Thursday that Washington believed Prigozhin wanted to take control of salt and gypsum mines in the area for commercial reasons. It made no mention of their alleged subterranean military use."

An immense underground labyrinth of caves and tunnels vicinity Bakhmut containing vast quantities of salt and gypsum of commercial grade are the main objective? Also that enormous underground labyrinth contains significant quantities of military munitions stockpiled to include bang stuff as from the era of World War I?

To date the Russian expenditure of manpower and equipment a severe debit as compared to the asset value of those salt and gypsum mines?

Wagner PMC their command NOT subordinate to the Russian army? Yevgenyy allowed too much latitude with regard to mission? Much to the detriment of the Russian tactical / operational / strategic concerns?

coolbert.