Recession.

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Generally, speaking war is bad for an economy? Valuable capital is removed from the private sector and transferred to the governmental sector. Capital no longer used to produce traditional goods and services.

"Gaza war pushing Israeli economy to recession, warns Israeli economist"

From https://www.aa.com.tr | Rabia Ali and Gokhan Ergocun  | 03.01.2024. 

"‘Most chances are that this will be a recession and might be a deep recession too because of the amount of uncertainty,’ economist Joseph Zeira tells Anadolu"

* ‘Most chances are that this will be a recession and might be a deep recession too because of the amount of uncertainty,’ economist Joseph Zeira tells Anadolu

* ‘Domestic demand, tourism, purchases of big consumption items and most importantly, investment, will go down,’ says Zeira

*  ‘Arab citizens of Israel’ and Palestinians will suffer more because of economic recession, according to economist

Click on the image to see an enlarged view. This graph an image of the value of a shekel against the dollar. At least from the point of 7 October and for a period of about a month afterward the shekel increasing in value and appreciating with regard to the dollar. The shekel now precipitously declining in value with regard to the dollar.

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Prerequisites.

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Here with key points and take away the Israeli plan for peace, the Gaza War.

Devoted readers to the blog will want to read very closely the details.

"Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Names Three Prerequisites for Peace"

From https://mishtalk.com  |   December 26, 2023.

"In a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed, Benjamin Netanyahu names three conditions for peace. Let’s review the conditions and the stumbling blocks to them."

"Please consider Our [Israeli] Three Prerequisites for Peace"

"Hamas must be destroyed, Gaza must be demilitarized, and Palestinian society must be deradicalized. These are the three prerequisites for peace between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors in Gaza."

* "First, Hamas, a key Iranian proxy, must be destroyed."

* "Second, Gaza must be demilitarized."

* "Third, Gaza will have to be deradicalized."

Do I believe any of this is ever going to occur with amicable and agreed-upon negotiations? The answer is no! Only force is going to be solve the situation according to the satisfaction of the Israeli. That is all there is to it. Anything other than that I’ll believe it only when I see it.

I so do you like the image accompanying this blog entry. That is of Samson tearing down the Temple of Dagon in Gaza killing himself and 3.000 Philistines in the process. Take it from there

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USV Houthi.

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Hootie Tootie, unmanned surface vessels, putt-putt boghammer type naval attack remotely controlled weapon of war.

Crammed chock-full of high explosive. These vessels will attack and use a swarm formation and can presumably destroy a large warship or commercial vessel Red Sea.

"Houthis launch sea drone to attack ships hours after US, allies issue final warning"

From AP ^ | 1/4/24 | Tara Copp.

"WASHINGTON (AP) — An armed unmanned surface vessel [USV] launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen got within a 'couple of miles' of U.S. Navy and commercial vessels in the Red Sea before detonating on Thursday, just hours after the White House and a host of partner nations issued a final warning to the Iran-backed militia group to cease the attacks or face potential military action. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Navy operations in the Middle East, said it was the first time the Houthis had used an unmanned surface vessel, or USV"

Also this:

"Houthi explosive boat found"

  By H I Sutton | 13 July 2019.

"Houthi 'Blow fish' low-profile explosive boat found in Red Sea SLOC"

Hootie Tootie, controlling a much less portion of the Red Sea coast line then I expected. Their current dominion not extending south and eastward beyond Bab el-Mandeb.

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Unwavering.

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More on the British minesweepers that have been donated to the Ukrainian. Passage through the Hellespont/Dardanelles/Bosphorus denied!

“Our relevant allies have been informed that the mine hunting ships donated to Ukraine by the United Kingdom will not be allowed to pass through the Turkish Straits to the Black Sea as long as the war continues,” - the Turkish presidency’s communications directorate.

"NATO state won't let UK send minesweepers to Ukraine"

"Citing international law, Türkiye has said it will block the vessels from entering the Black Sea"

From https://www.rt.com/news |  2 Jan, 2024.

As a strong as suspected, this all has to do with the Montreux treaty convention of 1936!

"The Turkish government said on Tuesday that it will not allow minesweeping vessels that the UK has pledged to donate to Ukraine to enter the Black Sea. Ankara, which controls the straits linking the Black Sea with the Mediterranean, shut down access to foreign warships when the conflict in Ukraine began in 2022."

"British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced last month that the UK would hand over two Royal Navy mine-hunting ships to Ukraine. Shapps claimed that by clearing Russian mines, the craft would make it easier for Ukraine to conduct naval operations against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, while clearing export routes to bolster the country’s battered economy."

[....]

"Türkiye 'has been implementing the Montreux Convention impartially and meticulously since 1936,' the statement continued, adding that it will maintain this 'unwavering determination and principled attitude throughout this war.'”

The only alternative at this point is for Bulgaria and Romania to donate their own minesweepers to Ukrainian?

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Ultimate.

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An escalation of hostilities the Gaza War with the use of atomic weapons? Is this a possibility? See the linked article:

"Doomsday: What could drive Israel and Iran to start launching nuclear weapons?"

From https://thehill.com | BY LOUIS BERES | 01/04/24.

"Although Israel’s Gaza war is most visibly being waged against Hamas, the ultimate adversary is Iran. If Israel’s counter-terrorism efforts should sometime bring it into direct confrontation with Iran, the result could be an immediate escalation between these two adversary states."

"In such a plausible scenario, even a still-pre-nuclear Iran could elicit a 'limited' Israeli nuclear reprisal. The principal escalation dangers would be an Iranian use of radiation dispersal weapons or an Iranian rocket attack on Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor."

Attack by an Iranian radiological weapon, the dirty bomb, definitely a possible. Drones or ballistic missiles attack with release of atomic radiation of a hazardous nature over large populated areas of Israel. Not even an atomic detonation occuring.

That the Dimona facility as mentioned of course the Israeli nuclear research site where supposedly atomic weapons are developed, manufactured and assembled, so as described by the turncoat Mordechai Vanunu.

Devoted readers to the blog, and those perusing only merrily in a much more casual matter need to go to read the entire article. Pay particular close attention to the four possible scenarios as outlined atomic war the Middle East.

You can also reasonably surmise that the Hamas rocket artillery attack [7 Oct] on what is called Wing Two was an attack on an Israeli atomic weapons storage facility. Catastrophe does await?

coolbert.

Blocked.

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NATO versus NATO? The ancient waterway of the Hellespont/Dardanelles/Bosphorus a naval blocking chokepoint.

"Turkey blocks Royal Navy ships sent to Ukraine as NATO falls apart"

From Express UK ^ | January 2, 2024 | Hannah Kane, Liam Doyle.

"Turkey has vowed to block two British Royal Navy ships intended for Ukraine to pass through its waters. Last month, Britain said it would transfer the two minehunter ships to the Ukrainian navy to help bolster its sea operations in its war with Russia. However, the Turkish presidency's communications directorate has now said it will not let the vessels through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits."

This is an issue of the Montreaux Convention of 1938? British mine hunting/clearing war ships as intended for delivery to the Ukrainian being barred from entry into the Black Sea

According to the Montreux Convention of 1938 military vessels of nations without a border on the Black Sea, can remain within the confines of the Black Sea for a maximum of 21 days. Barely transferring the ships to Ukrainian naval control does not meet the exacting requirements of the Montreux Convention?

The NATO nations of Bulgaria and Romania can indeed transfer vessels that are mine hunting/clearing war ships to the Ukrainian, and do so in a legal manner not contravening the Montreaux Convention of 1938? Of this I am not sure.

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Naught.

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“Britain’s military intelligence chiefs believe Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia in 2024 because it does not have the manpower or the weapons for a big battlefield breakthrough.”

If the Ukrainian did not have the manpower or equipment to win the war in 2023 they surely will not be able to win the war in 2024. I think that is fully understood by all parties.

"The UK Has ‘Nothing’ Left in Its Military Stockpiles After Arming Ukraine"

From https://news.antiwar.com |  by Dave DeCamp  |  January 2, 2024.

"European countries are looking to ramp up weapons production to keep fueling the war in Ukraine despite knowing Ukraine can't win"

"The UK has 'nothing' left in its military stockpiles after sending weapons to Ukraine, The Times of London reported on Sunday, citing an anonymous Ukrainian military source."

Certain NATO countries besides the English have given away their stockpiled munitions. They do not even have sufficient ordinance to conduct a full day of warfare in their own defense without running out of shooting bang stuff. It is that bad.

See previous blog entry, the English, having bottomed out with regard to war munitions:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/10/bottom.html

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