CSI

This is coolbert:

Persons that watch the TV program "CSI" [Crime Scene Investigation] will be well aware of the various methods, techniques, protocols employed by modern scientific criminal investigators. Methods, techniques, protocols, NOW ALSO being used on the "battlefield" of the Global War On Terror [GWOT]!

Scientific crime fighting "applications" to include:

(1). Fingerprints. Fingerprints are now and have been obtained from a variety of sources and compared to existing records. Sources to include:

* Jihadi - - captured or found dead on the battlefield.
* Documents.
* Weapons.
* Safe houses and training camps.

Fingerprints not only forming a database, but when compared to existing records, producing some surprising results. MANY OF THESE JIHADI KILLED OR CAPTURED ON A FOREIGN BATTLEFIELD HAVE ESTABLISHED CRIMINAL RECORDS IN THE U.S. Lived previously for a period in America and engaged in some sort of criminal behavior!

(2). DNA samples for high-ranking jihadi have been obtained and stored. [Taken from [voluntarily or otherwise?] family members of the clans bin Laden and Zawahiri, for instance] A means of ID that can be used to positively determine the deaths of High-Value-Targets [HVT’s] on the battlefield.

It must be kept in mind that modern weaponry can have a devastating effect on the human body. Blown to smithereens quite often being the case. Maybe only minute bits and pieces of a body, a blood smear, or merely just blood droplets being all that is left!

Destroying the senior leadership of Al Qaeda does have a high priority! NOT ONLY killing them when possible, but knowing for CERTAIN that you have killed the right villain is also essential!! DNA testing allows, when possible, for an absolutely certain ID of the bad guy!

(3). Suspects detained in the low-intensity, irregular, anti-jihadi type of combat are being tested for gun-shot-residue [GSR]. Hands swabbed and tested to see if the "suspect" has fired a firearm recently. A way of separating the good from the bad!

GSR testing was conducted on the male inhabitants of Fallujah. All males detained were swabbed and tested for GSR. Those not showing traces of GSR released, those testing positive held for further "processing".

(4). Autopsies - - random, are also being performed on enemy bodies found on the battlefield. Such autopsies have revealed that jihadi engaged in suicide type of missions are quite often "high" on BZ ["Buzz"]. Intoxicants and stimulants other than opiates are normally forbidden to the Muslim! "Buzz" is OK by the mullahs and imams?

From teeth extracted during an autopsy it should be possible to determine with a pretty good degree of certainty the nationality, ethnicity, or region of the world where the deceased jihadi has spent the formative years of their life. Is this particular dead villain a Malay, a Filipino, a Kurd, a Saudi, a Turk, a Chechen, a Somali, etc. This type of question can be answered with pretty good assurance!

CSI "stuff" not normally associated with conventional warfare is an important feature of the Global War on Terror [GWOT]! "Evidence" that is used in criminal investigations is very useful when fighting the jihadi enemy as well!?

That seems to be the case!

coolbert.

Diet

This is coolbert:

People are fond of saying, "there is nothing new under the sun!!"

Here, from the LoneSentry web site, the special "iron ration" as issued and carried by British Commando troops during operations:

"CHAPTER 2. COMMANDO TRAINING - - Section III. Commando Rations"

"A special ration, designed to give a man enough sustenance to enable him to operate under rigorous conditions"

* Pemmican (dried meat, 60% lean, 40% fat) [known as "beef jerky" in the U.S.]
* Oatmeal
* Biscuit
* Dried fruit
* Margarine or butter

Meat, whole grains, dried fruit, a dairy based spread.

And here, the diet as eaten by a Pankration athlete while in training. Pankration - - the martial art form of ancient Greece. A combination of wrestling and boxing used to train Greek warriors for mortal combat. Also practiced at the Olympics as a "sport"! A "sport" sometimes resulting in the death of a combatant.

The athletes diet consisting of:

* Bread
* Meat* Dry fruits* Fresh cheese [feta cheese, made with goats' milk?]
* Wheat

Again, we find a diet consisting of whole grains, meat, dry fruit, and a dairy product.

Pankration is now enjoying a renaissance. After a several millennium long hiatus, the martial art form has been rejuvenated, modernized, and is now avidly practiced by a growing number of enthusiasts. Bully!!

Nothing new under the sun? You betcha!

coolbert.

Black Sea.

This is coolbert:

From the Chicago Tribune today:

"World briefing"

"Putin vowing ‘answer’ to ships"

"MOSCOW - - Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia will respond calmly to an increase in NATO ships in the Black Sea but promised ‘there will be an answer.’"

"Russia has complained that NATO has too many warships in the Black Sea . . . two U.S., one Polish, one Spanish and one German ship are there."

Four ships at once are too many??!! How many does Putin feel WOULD BE APPROPRIATE THEN!!?? My suspicions are that ONLY the number ZERO would satisfy the Prime Minister.

Turkey is a member of NATO in good standing! The Bosporus [Dardanelles in ancient times!] is an international waterway that NATO warships have a right to transit, entering into the Black Sea.

"Several international treaties have governed vessels using the waters . . . the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Turkish Straits of July 1936. That convention, which is still in practical force as of 2008, treats the straits as an international shipping lane, but Turkey does retain the right to restrict the naval traffic of non-Black Sea nations"

[Russian warships too have a right to exit the Black Sea and enter the Mediterranean, sailing south through the Bosporus.]

One of those two American vessels is a naval cruiser now docked at Poti, DELIVERING HUMANITARIAN SUPPLIES! This is A PRESUMABLY A DIRE THREAT TO ALL OF RUSSIA!!??

Russian naval power in the Black Sea has been severely diminished in the last two decades. Negotiations with the Ukrainians have been on going for some time about Black Sea and Crimean naval bases being leased or ceded to the Russian Navy??

Russia - - again - - is seeking to make a big splash on the world stage!!

Tu-95 "Bear" reconnaissance flights - - Cuban military bases - - territorial claims to the North Pole - - the Georgian conflict - - Trans-Dneister - - oil and gas pipelines to western Europe - - thinly veiled threats against Poland!! Now NATO warships in the Black Sea!

A clear, consistent, troubling and very surprising and unexpected trend continues!!

This is all the result of Russia being awash with petro-dollars??!! A glut of money has gone to the heads of the Russian leadership?

An aggressive, assertive Russia, thought to be out of play for some time now on the global scene - - again - - a force to be reckoned with??!!

coolbert.

King of the Khyber Rifles.

This is coolbert:

This is all very alarming!

"Russian threat to Nato supply route in Afghanistan"

From The Times August 26, 2008.

An agreement - - between Russia and NATO, vital to the NATO effort in Afghanistan, is going to come unhinged? All as a result of "western" disapproval over the conflict between Russian and Georgia.

"Russia played a trump card in its strategic poker game with the West yesterday by threatening to suspend an agreement allowing Nato to take supplies and equipment to Afghanistan through Russia and Central Asia."

"The agreement was struck at a Nato summit in April [agreed upon in 2007 and only implemented this year?] to provide an alternative supply route to the road between the Afghan capital and the Pakistani border, which has come under attack from militants on both sides of the frontier this year."

"the Taleban have been targeting the supply routes of the alliance this year . . . Nato imports about 70 per cent of its food, fuel, water and equipment from Pakistan via the Khyber Pass, and flies in much of the rest through Russian airspace via bases in Central Asia. "

The Taliban have been attacking the Main Supply Route [MSR] from Karachi, through the Khyber Pass, to Kabul. This HAS BEEN AN ON-GOING THREAT, AND HAS NOW MATERIALIZED, JUST AS I FEARED!!

The villains have gotten it into their head that this is a do-able strategy that can reap great rewards. The single MSR supplies currently 70 % of the re-supply for NATO forces in Afghan. If that life-line is cut or severely interrupted, NATO is in deep doo-doo [skat/merde'/etc.]!

Attacks on the MSR have already included:

* "one [attack] that destroyed 36 fuel tankers"
* "Four US helicopter engines worth $13 million (£7 million) went missing [pilfered]"
* "militants killed ten French soldiers on the same route"

See my previous blog entry on the Khyber Pass. The road, and the narrow-gauge [?] rail link from Pakistan to Kabul must be kept open. Cannot be jeopardized even slightly. NATO forces would have to face the consequences if this life-line is cut. Mission in Afghan would rapidly become untenable. American and allied forces would have beat feet, and quick.

But how? And to where? Contingency plans are on the table and being constantly reviewed!!

coolbert.

Back in Business!

This is coolbert:

Normally this sort of material would NOT BE germane to a blog dedicated to military analysis. IS relevant, in light of the resurgent nature of Russia, militarily and otherwise, on the world stage.

Here is a group of people who had probably thought they had seen their better days. The world had passed them by, and they were left hung out to dry, NOT to be seen again?

Those group of highly educated persons whose advice was listened to by the highest circles in the land. Persons that were referred to as Kremlinologists or Sovietologists.

Persons who, once again, are feeling their oats? Maybe now individuals who are up in the years and now so wild anymore, but seeing an emerging situation that is to their favor.

A situation where Russia has again become a factor on the world stage. A nation who once again sees itself as a major player! A nation [Russia] whose motives, intentions, desires, actions must be divined and understood.

Who better to do the task of "understanding" the Russian "bear" than that group of now somewhat aged but still active to some extent, Kremlinologists and Sovietologists.

[Sovietologist is no longer the proper term. NO more Soviet Union. The study of the Russian nation and society as a whole is called [???]]

"[a] term [Kremlinologist] is sometimes used to mean any attempt to understand a secretive organization or process, such as plans for upcoming products or events, by interpreting indirect clues."

"During the Cold War, lack of reliable information about the country forced Western analysts to 'read between the lines' . . . [using] indirect signs to try to understand what was happening in internal Soviet politics."

"Kremlinology is the study and analysis of [Russian] politics and policies based on efforts to understand the inner workings of an extremely opaque central government . . . Kremlinologist refers to academic, media, and commentary experts who specialize in the study of Kremlinology. Sovietology/Sovietologist describes specialists of the country as a whole. "

To reiterate:

Kremlinology = "study and analysis of [Russian] politics and policies . . . of an extremely opaque central government."

Study of the country [Russia] as a whole is now = [??].

Persons, now being consulted concerning the Russian "matter", old-timers for the most part, able to speak the language, intimitaely familiar with the culture, the mentality, etc. To include:

* Marshall Goldman.

"Marshall Goldman is an expert on the economy of the former Soviet Union. Goldman is a Professor of Economics at Wellesley College and Associate Director of the Harvard Russian Research Center. Goldman received his Ph.D. in Russian studies from Harvard University in 1961."

"A frequent visitor to the republics of the former Soviet Union . . . He has met with Mikhail Gorbachev, Vladimir Putin . . . and continues to meet regularly with business leaders, diplomats, and government officials at the highest levels in both countries."

* Dmitry Simes.

"Simes was born in Moscow and graduated with an M.A. in history from. He emigrated to the in. Simes's writings include After the Collapse: Russia Seeks its Place as a Great Power (1999)"

* Zbigniew Brzezinski.

"His Master's thesis focused on the various nationalities within the Soviet Union . . . Brzezinski then went on to attend Harvard University in the United States to work on a PhD, focusing on the Soviet Union"

* Condoleezza Rice.

"Rice served as the Soviet and East European Affairs Advisor during the dissolution of the Soviet Union and German reunification."

Brzezinski and Rice of course also having served and serving [Rice] as U.S. Secretary of State. Rice in particular, a black woman who in a deliberate fashion made a career for herself by mastering the language [Russian] and studying under the existing "masters" in a fashion most admirable.

Back in business? And to be greatly appreciated for their knowledge and insight? NOW masters in their own right who will have to train a new cadre' of experts for the future!

coolbert.

Moldova/Transnistria

This is coolbert:

Again from the excellent web site: "Global Futures: Forecasting Patterns, Determining Alternatives, and Mitigating Risk"

Here is another Russian-speaking area, Moldova/Trans-Dneister, not contiguous to the Russian "motherland", where we may see future agitation and strife. Conflict leading to military action on the part of the Russian. An embattled and "mis-treated" Russian minority, desiring succor and eventual reunification with "Big Brother" in Moscow?


That breakdown of ethnic groups (2005):

32% Moldovans 31% Russians 29% Ukrainians

"Russia Threatens Moldova with Transnistria Independences"

August 25th, 2008 by Ferleman

"Does Russia have its sights on Moldova and the breakaway republic of Transnistria? Along the banks of the River Dniester rests the Russian-speaking Moldovan province of Transnistria. Bordered by Bessarabia to the West and Ukraine to the East, Transnistria has all the makings of a new Russian front."

Makings!! That is all it is for now. But there IS precedent in this part of the world [Moldova/Trans-Dneister] for military action on the part of the Russian, on behalf of their Russian-speaking compatriots!

"Russian military forces have remained on Moldovan territory; since 1993 they have been stationed in the breakaway territory of Transnistria against the will of the Moldovan Government."

A heightened degree of strife, conflict, even military action by the Russian in Moldova would surely be a sign for the worse.

coolbert.

Russians!

This is coolbert:

From some comments to the blog:

First, by Colonel Craig:

"They [Russians] have to get a real economy and a real military before they do that.They are in no position to attack now - they are a shell of what they once were. But still nasty guys"

Secondly, from an anonymous source, citing [??] the web site:

Anti-Communist Analyst

"Russian invasion of Georgia was carefully planned rehearsal for the Russian still communist run military, under orders from the Russian still fully communist leadership, TO TAKE OVER THE WHOLE WORLD.

It is exactly this which the American people don't get.

Military exercise to train for the real McCoy.

I know because I know how they think because before I defected from communist Czechoslovakia I had to serve in Czechoslovak Air Force, we had Russian KGB terrorist training camp at the airport.."

NOW, here from the excellent web site:

"Global Futures: Forecasting Patterns, Determining Alternatives, and Mitigating Risk"

By: Dr. Thomas Ferleman

A graphic, showing: "the Figure 1. Top Ten Most Powerful Countries" as projected to be in the year 2020.

Criteria for the rating scheme based upon:

* global GDP
* population
* a measure of technological sophistication (with GDP per capita as a proxy)

* government size,
* military spending,
* conventional power

* nuclear power

Read the entire article the graphic obtained from: http://www.ferleman.com/us-russia-relations-rising-likelihood-of-conflict/

"by 2020 Russia will rank as the ninth most powerful country in the world. While there remains a significant distinction between the great power status of the U.S. and Russia, it would be wrong and possibly risky to view Russia as anything less than a great power."

Well stated! Oil revenues, wisely spent, and I stress wisely spent, could enable the Russians to assume a much more dominant role on the world stage. Time will only tell.

coolbert.