Sunday, October 18, 2015

Week Two.

 This is coolbert:

From The Ron Unz Review we have the article by The Saker:

 "Week Two of the Russian Military Intervention in Syria"

"How Daesh can adapt to the new circumstances"

* "First, up until now, Daesh basically could move around at night with total impunity because the Syrian Air Force simply did not have the technology to detect and engage Daesh units at night. This has now changed since all the Russian aircraft (rotary and fixed wing) engaged in the current campaign are fully night capable. This is a major problem for Daesh which will now have to operate in an extremely dangerous environment 24 hours a day. The solution? Camouflage and dispersal."

* "Second, Daesh forces will have to adapt to guerrilla-style ‘hit and run’ kinds of attacks. Until now, both sides were willing to engage in a bizarre kind of 'trench warfare' in which each side would dig in and shell the other. Now that Russian bombers and close air support aircraft can be called in by the Syrian front line commanders, this will become very dangerous for Daesh, probably forcing them to switch to faster, ambush warfare."

* "Third, most sources agree that currently Daesh controls roughly 80% of the land and 20% of the population. This is mostly due to the size of the Syrian armed forces which are stretched too thin to hold on to lightly populated areas. Daesh can use that to its advantage and try to move around any attacking Syrian forces and then ambush any units whose flanks and supply routes are not secured."

* "Fourth, if things become really ugly for Daesh, they can start using the Turkish, Iraqi, Lebanese and Jordanian borders to hide from the Syrian/Iranian forces"

* "Fifth, Daesh might do what the Ukrainians have done and organized a ‘Russian atrocity’ false flag, maybe the bombing of a pediatric clinic or hospital. he corporate media will be more than happy to pick up and spread the story, no matter how ridiculous."

* "Finally, we can be absolutely certain that if the Syrian military is 'too' successful, at least from the point of view of the Empire, then all the 'friends of Syria' will join forces and demand a 'peace conference' whose main purpose will be to save Daesh from complete destruction."

Personal comments:

* The current Assad counter-offensive courtesy of the Russian not necessarily to defeat ISIL [Daesh] but ALL those in opposition to the rule of the despot.

* Think not the Syrian Army engaged in the fighting but contingents of Hezbollah, Iranian Revolutionary Guard main force units, Cubans, and perhaps even North Koreans.

* ISIL only using "camouflage and dispersal" but also DECEPTION on a widespread basis to survive the current onslaught. and already practiced at doing so!!

* That "peace conference" having already been offered some time ago but rejected by Assad in totality.

* ISIL have practiced for some time now a combination of conventional military assault and guerrilla warfare. ISIL combatants those having survived a period of warfare and now very competent and resourceful. Hezbollah, Iranians, Syruians, Cubans, North Koreans and perhaps even Russians too now be prepared for an ordeal of IED and EFP. Improvised Explosive Devices and Explosively Formed Projectile.

ISIL those fighters and commanders a product of a Darwinian Selection process much more resilient and adaptive than what will be expected.


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