Dire?

This is coolbert:

Discussion on National Public Radio [NPR] the other day, a very pessimistic and gloomy appraisal of the current situation in Afghan. The Taliban are surely resurgent, the Afghan National Army is ineffective at best, and the Obama administration is considering various options and alternatives to the current strategy. The most recent request by General Mc Chrystal for an additional 30,000-40,000 American troops to be sent to the theatre has been received with with less than favorable enthusiasm.

From the NPR broadcast:

1. An alternative as proposed by VP Biden. An alternative plan [the Biden Plan] that will:

"[concentrate] on Al Qaeda both there [Afghan] and in Pakistan . . . emphasis on rooting out Al Qaeda from strongholds along the Pakistan border using Predator drone strikes, special forces and other tactics . . . U.S. forces would accelerate training of Afghan troops to take on the Taliban."

The Taliban are no longer seen as a viable threat to the U.S. The Taliban of today is NOT the same Taliban of 2001? Al Qaeda is more the threat and must be countered, but the U.S. must NOT continue the fight in Afghan with the thought that a Taliban victory would mean a return to the situation that existed in 2001!

So goes the thinking of VP Biden and his advisers, his strategists? Such a paradigm is valid?

2. The impossibility of having a NATIONAL AFGHAN ARMY waging a successful counter-insurgency war against the Taliban. The status of the Afghan National Army is shaky. Afghan national troops, trained by the American/NATO contingents will NEVER comprise an effective fighting force! Ethnic rivalries among the Afghan nation are too strong, the Afghan national army leadership being a minority leadership.

NONE of the commanders at battalion level or higher echelon belongs to the dominant Afghan ethnic group - - the Pashtun.

All leadership positions at battalion or greater within the Afghan national army are held by Tajiks. Persons, commanders, who were senior officials of the Northern Alliance [predominantly Tajik]. That group, in 2001, the only opposition remaining to rule by the Taliban. That group, allied with American and NATO special forces, being able to rout the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the aftermath of 9/11.

Ethnic breakdown in Afghan, courtesy of the CIA fact book:

"Afghan Ethnic groups:
Pashtun 42%, Tajik 27%, Hazara 9%, Uzbek 9%, Aimak 4%, Turkmen 3%, Baloch 2%, other 4%"

NO ONE ethnic group pre-dominates in Afghan. Pashtun are a significant plurality, not a majority! NOT having one commander at battalion or higher echelon in the Afghan army is a severe demotivating factor for potential Pashtun recruits? So it would seem!

We all understand - - there is NOT NOW and probably never will be - - and easy or quick answer to the Afghan situation. Further troop increases [American] will only exacerbate the situation and make things worse? Mc Chrystal was originally touted as an expert on counter-insurgency with the proper credentials to bring the Taliban to heel? His performance so far is lackluster?

You don't want to reinforce failure is a popular adage! Here too?

coolbert.