Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Jammu & Kashmir.

This is coolbert:

As extracted from the South Asia Terrorism Portal [SATP] we have updates and background information on the situation in Kashmir, that insurgency and the response to same by the government of India.

SATP that perspective from the standpoint of the Indian analyst.

1. Assessment.

That assessment at the BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR rather upbeat. The number of incidents and casualties in Jammu and Kashmir on the decrease. That Indian army contingent practitioners of counter-insurgency operations perhaps the most experienced and BEST in the world. Lots and lots of experience and a well thought out methodology and doctrine for combating the guerrilla/terrorist/militant!

2. Timeline.

This the time for 2013 and the situation in contrast to the assessment [#1] not so good. Incidents and attacks both the number of intensity of same escalating. You can read it all mostly from this last August forward until present by scrolling to almost the bottom of the page.

3. Terrorist/Extremist/Insurgent groups.

That multiplicity of insurgents groups in Jammu and Kashmir most surprising. Factionalism and divided and diffused effort not conducive to a successful insurgency. That number of such groups over a period of many decades is nonetheless surprising?

Factionalism a problem always [?] a problem with the insurgent? Diffused and unfocused energy self-defeating and counter-productive.

According to the counter-insurgency expert the late David Galula that communist [not the case with Jammu and Kashmir] among those first two stages of an insurgency:

"1) the establishment of a party and a cause; 2) creating a united front"

NO SUCH thing as a "united front" existing in Jammu and Kashmir?

Normally that situation as currently existing in Jammu and Kashmir resolved by a negotiated settlement. This not being realistic now, or has been in the past, or even in the foreseeable future.

Hence goes Jammu and Kashmir?


No comments: