IPPN.

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Italian Air Force to Iceland! Italians? Iceland?

From "The Aviationist" the article by DAVID CENCIOTTI | June 28, 2022.

"The Italian Air Force Has Deployed Its Two F-35Bs To Iceland For The First Time"

NATO MISSION AIR POLICING ICELAND!

"Along with the four F-35As supporting NATO’s Icelandic Air Policing, the Italian Air Force has deployed its two F-35B STOVL (Short Take Off Vertical Landing) aircraft for training in Iceland’s cold climate."

F-35B the Short Take Off Vertical Landing version of the Lightning warplane. Six F-35 total deployed, two of which are the STOVL version.

"For the third time in the last three years, Italy has deployed its F-35 Lightning II aircraft to Iceland, to support NATO’s Interim Air Policing mission 'Airborne Surveillance and Interception Capabilities to meet Iceland’s Peacetime Preparedness Needs (ASIC-IPPN)', more commonly known as Icelandic Air Policing."

YES, Italian Air Force Iceland. Italians doing their bit as part of NATO Icelandic Air Policing mission. Iceland having their airspace protected from hostile or possible hostile intruder aircraft. Iceland a constituent member of NATO BUT not having an air force. Everybody must chip in and do so on a rotating basis.

Very good real world training. Almost like a vacation I can imagine but with a lot of seriousness. Bravo Italians. Good hunting!

coolbert.

Exchange.

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"'Most of the released Ukrainians have serious injuries,' . . . 'gunshot and shrapnel wounds, explosive injuries, burns, fractures, amputations of limbs.' . . . 'all of them [did?] receive proper medical and psychological assistance.'"

From newsmax.com the story by Nick Koutsobinas    |   Wednesday, 29 June 2022.

"Ukraine, Russia Each Swap 144 Soldiers: Largest Prisoner Exchange in the War"

"Ukraine and Russia announced Wednesday they would exchange 144 soldiers each, making this the largest prisoner swap since the war began in February."

[....]

"According to Axios, of the 144 soldiers returning to Ukraine, 95 of them fought in a months-long battle to defend the Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol, which, according to sources, was the last foothold of Ukrainian resistance in the city."

The surrender of Ukrainian troops Mariupol was several thousands total. Including those taken prisoner in the aftermath of the Azovstal steelyard siege.

To what extent exchanged prisoners are subject to parole as that word understood in the military context not clear. If indeed even a factor.

"Parole is 'the agreement of persons who have been taken prisoner by an enemy that they will not again take up arms against those who captured them, either for a limited time or during the continuance of the war.' The US Department of Defense [DoD] defines parole more broadly: 'Parole agreements are promises given the captor by a POW to fulfill stated conditions, such as not to bear arms or not to escape, in consideration of special privileges, such as release from captivity or lessened restraint.'"

Parole a quite common procedure during the American Civil War. Has been used quite sparingly since then. American DOD definition of parole in response to the behavior of American soldiers being held captive during the Korean War. Certain American POW Korea their conduct less than desirable.

coolbert.

Scheme # 1.

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Invasion USA! Canadians invade the United States! Canadians? Canada moves south? Could it have been?

"In 1921, Canada developed a secret plan to invade the U.S."

From Frank Jacobs | SEPTEMBER 5, 2018 courtesy the Internet web site bigthink.com

"America's fear of an Anglo-Japanese alliance led Canada to worry about a U.S. attack—and in the end, devise a scheme for a 'pre-emptive invasion' of its southern neighbor."

"Canada's 'Defense Scheme No. 1' called for a five-pronged attack on targets in the northern U.S."

WAR PLANS [WHETHER CANADIAN SCHEME # 1 OR USA PLAN RED] AS DEVISED PREDICATED ON THE ASSUMPTION OF A GENERAL WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND GREAT BRITAIN. CANADA WOULD HAVE BEEN EXPECTED TO DO THEIR BIT. 

This map shows which routes the Canadians were contemplating. Here’s a summary of the General Instructions for Offensive Action listed in Defense Scheme No. 1:

The five axis of advance into the USA:

1. Canada’s Pacific Command.

2. Prairie Command.

3. Great Lakes Command.

4. Quebec Command.

5. Maritime Command. 

Again and further such a war with invasion USA based on the assumption of a general war between Great Britain and the USA:

"Because back then [1921], Canada was still firmly in the orbit of the British Empire. And the Brits were still not quite ready yet for a ‘Special Relationship’ with the U.S.—in fact, Britain’s demotion from a first- to a second-rate world power—which developed during and after the Second World War."

"The British after the First World War [and prior to that too] cultivated a special relationship with the Japanese Empire, then firmly in the ascendant. The Americans, already wary of Japanese competition in the Pacific, were worried about the risk of an Anglo-Japanese alliance, which had the potential to turn Canada into hostile territory in case of conflict between the U.S. and Japan."

Thankfully Scheme # 1 never came to fruition. Was however I might think good training for Canadian staff officers. One-hundred years later we can all rest easy now!

coolbert.

Meier.

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Damage the World War Two [WW2] allied Strategic Bombing offensive directed at Germany. A graphic that says a lot.

"The horror of the air war, in one stark map"

From Frank Jacobs OCTOBER 11, 2020 courtesy the Internet web site "BIG THINK".

"This graph shows how badly German cities were hit by Allied bombing raids".

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

* "Despite Göring's assurances they wouldn't get through, Allied bombers rained destruction on Germany in World War II." * "This 1947 map takes stock of the devastation: Berlin and Hamburg half destroyed, some smaller cities wiped out." * "The history of the air war over Germany is a chilling reminder of the peculiar horror of mechanized warfare."

Listen also the embedded podcast.

"On this map [click on map below to see an enlarged image] of Germany, drawn up in 1947, black pie slices indicate how much of each city was flattened in the war—mostly by aerial bombardments. It reflects the dizzying scale of destruction in Germany, a fact not often dwelled upon in histories of the Second World War. Understandable, since Germany started it—both the war and bombing civilians—the overall sentiment is: They had it coming"

"On this map of Germany, drawn up in 1947, black pie slices indicate how much of each city was flattened in the war—mostly by aerial bombardments. It reflects the dizzying scale of destruction in Germany, a fact not often dwelled upon in histories of the Second World War. Understandable, since Germany started it—both the war and bombing civilians—the overall sentiment is: They had it coming" - Image: G.W. Harmssen, Reparationen, Sozialprodukt, Lebensstandard (1947), in Deutsche Geschichte in Dokumenten und Bildern."

Regarding casualties and the amount of damage done to civilians:

"In the real world, the wheels of destruction kept turning until May 8, 1945, when Germany did surrender unconditionally. Eventually, the air war claimed the lives of about 600,000 Germans."    

"The war had destroyed 4.8 million housing units. As a result, 13 million Germans were homeless."

The efficacy of the western allies strategic bombing offensive Germany has called into question many times since the end of World War Two. At the very least less effective than anticipated and only strengthening German morale to continue the fight.

Often neglected in such appreciations is the fact the German required a 1 million man army of the able-bodied as dedicated to the defense of what was called the "four-engine bomber" problem. Vital resources and manpower diverted from the war effort at a time when needed elsewhere.

coolbert.

Shaman.

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From the "Small Wars Journal" and the article by by Chuck de Caro Tue, 06/28/2022.

"UKRAINE: THINK DEEP ATTACKS AGAINST RUSSIAN LOGISTICS"

ATTACK THE RUSSIAN MILITARY WHERE HE LIVES!

"The current state of the Ukraine-Russian war has fallen into a see-saw struggle for small territorial gains, much like the War in Korea in 1952-53."

"While the Ukrainians are now beefing up their capability for offensive naval operations in the Black Sea, as recommended in these pages months ago, those actions against the vulnerable Russian littoral left flank have yet to occur."

"With those naval operations presumably soon at hand, the Ukrainians might be well advised to begin attacking the Russian war effort’s other great vulnerability:  Logistics.   Specifically, the Russian Rail System, and the command and control structure of the Russian Army’s Material Technical Support Brigades."

Comments:

* I like to think the Ukraine Conflict more like the Winter War of 1940. Finland and the Soviet Union.

* Attacks on vulnerable Russian logistics already occurring. See Ukrainian "Shaman" ranger/commando special operations the Conflict. Purportedly crossing into Russian territory for sabotage missions.

* Black Sea adventures a side-show of the Conflict and not much can be expected from events if indeed they do transpire?

* Think too precedent! The "War of the Rails" during the Second World War [WW2]. Russian Guards Minelayers and Red partisans wreaking havoc on the rail supply network of the German.

* Such attacks most effective when combined and done in support of conventional military operations. Think the French Resistance WW2 attacks on German forces in the days immediately before and after the Normandy Invasion.

coolbert.

Hum.

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The Taos Hum. But hardly limited to Taos, New Mexico, United States.

Paranormal phenomenon with the military dimension?

"This mysterious sound drives some to insanity, suicide"

"Several investigations have looked into the Taos hum. One scientist believes he has the most likely culprit."

Article Philip Perry NOVEMBER 16, 2017.

"The New Mexico town of Taos is artsy and picturesque, bringing in tons of tourists each year for its pueblo, arts festival, and other trappings. The town has had several celebrity residents including Aldous Huxley, D.H. Lawrence, Julia Roberts, and Dennis Hopper. But there is a dark phenomenon underlying this eclectic desert oasis, a mysterious sound that only a handful can hear, and a small few are tormented by. It’s called the Taos Hum." [not however confined to Taos, New Mexico, USA]

See the You Tube video "The Hum". The tip from the Internet web site bigthink.com

See also this interactive map the worldwide distribution of the phenomenon. Allows you to determine if "The Hum" has been heard where you live.

"The Hum" suggested to be as a result of Low Frequency [LF] transmissions in the 3 KHZ to 30 KHZ range as used to communicate with American submarines. The submarines of other nations too I might well imagine.

coolbert.

 

BG Tallman.

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Within the context of the Ukraine Conflict and the loss of what purportedly the death in combat of at least a dozen Russian general officers, consider this American from the era of the Vietnam War. General Richard J. Tallman.

Tallman last American general officer killed in by enemy action the Second Indo-China War.

"Richard J. Tallman (March 28, 1925 – July 9, 1972) was a United States Army brigadier general who was killed by North Vietnamese artillery fire in 1972 during the Battle of An Lộc. He was the last U.S. Army general to die in the Vietnam War. He was on his third tour in South Vietnam."

Three tours in Vietnam. Additionally having seen combat in World War Two and Korea. A fighting soldier of high repute. 

Regarding the death of General Tallman:

"On 9 July 1972, Tallman and his aides had just landed at An Lộc to observe ARVN counter-offensive operations at the conclusion of the Battle of An Lộc when they were hit by North Vietnamese artillery fire, three of the group were killed instantly, while Tallman and two others were wounded. The wounded men were evacuated to the 3rd Field Hospital in Saigon where Tallman died of his wounds."

Thirteen American flag officers [general/admiral] killed during the Second Indo-China War. Five of those to include General Tallman perishing by enemy action. The remainder lost in fixed-wing or rotary-wing aviation accidents.

It can be said that during the Twentieth Century and now beyond the American professional military man has had a chance to practice his trade and craft as no other military man has been able since the time of the Roman Empire. As did General Tallman!

coolbert.

Betrayal.

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"'We wanted to challenge the leadership of the Academy and the Defense Dept on their WOKE actions, CRT, Diversity training and the other discrepancies in the Academy,' . . . 'We found it pervasive at the Naval and Air Force Academies so we knew it was directed from the highest levels of our Military Leadership. We all want the Military to get back on track to training and leading our Armed Forces to secure America and it's Citizens,'" - Army Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely [ret.]

Day of the Generals? And other senior officers the USA military? Graduates the military academies USA expressing their concerns. The OPEN LETTER! UNPRECEDENTED?

"West Point graduates sign letter challenging leadership of military academy"

"The former military officers worry that their alma mater has embraced "woke" teachings that will undermine the mission of the institution."

From justthenews.com the article by Sophie Mann June 27, 2022.

"Several retired U.S. military officers signed a letter written by 'Concerned Graduates of West Point and The Long Gray Line,' which objects to mandatory vaccinations, CRT instruction, progressivism and other 'woke' sentiments in the military academy."

"The letter, titled, 'Declaration of Betrayal of West Point And the Long Gray Line,' requests from the academy information in a number of areas including a justification for the mandatory COVID-19 vaccination of cadets and an explanation for reaching so-called 'Critical Race Theory' at West Point." 

"In addition to other information, the letter also demands to know why some civilian faculty members have been permitted to become involved with political activism, violating the 'long-standing policy of the Academy and Army Regulations.'"

My understanding is the retired general officer the U.S. Army are carried on the army rolls for their lifespan. Openly challenging authority for such senior officers can be a violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice?

coolbert.

Mohyla.

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The Russian invading brute Ukraine behaves as a barbarian? Burning of a church library Mariupol following an odious military tradition that goes back thousands of years.

Think historically the libraries Alexandria, Baghdad, Louvain. Illiterate barbarian brute in a deliberate and malicious manner destroys what he cannot understand? Now Mariupol.

"Mariupol: Occupiers [Russian] burn all books from the library of the Church of Petro Mohyla, including some unique ones"

From Ukrayinska Pravda the tip from yahoo.com June 25, 2022.

Source: Petro Andriushchenko, advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol

Quote: from Andriushchenko: "In the Church of Petro Mohyla, Ukrainian Orthodox Church, at the suggestion and with the assistance of Russian Orthodox Church priests in Mariupol, the entire extensive library, collected by volunteers and benefactors, was confiscated and burned in the Church courtyard."

Details: "It is reported that the library contained several unique copies of Ukrainian-language publications, which are now lost forever."

[....]

"According to Andriushchenko, the occupiers are now deciding whether to demolish the Petro Mohyla church or reformat it according to the canons of the Russian Orthodox Church."

The cleric Petro Hohyla a significant and very important figure with regard to Ukrainian culture. Promoted literacy in the Ukrainian language the Seventeenth Century. The attack on this church hardly routine or accidental. Done with deliberate intent. Russification of those areas of Ukraine now under control of the Russian military the goal!

coolbert.

Kodiak.

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Kiev under bombardment from advanced version Russian air-launched long-range cruise missiles.

1. "The occupiers [Russians] fired at Kyiv from Tu-95 and Tu-160 planes from the Caspian Sea"

Source: myukraineis.org | Kostiantyn Golubtsov 26 june 2022.

"During the morning shelling of Kyiv, the occupiers used Tu-95 and Tu-160 aircraft. They were raised in Astrakhan, and missiles were launched over the Caspian Sea."

Long-range air-launched cruise missiles AS-23A [NATO code name Kodiak] a volley fired at Kiev. Both Russian Tu-95 [Bear] and Tu-160 [Blackjack] type bomber warplanes participating. Range of the AS-23 about 5,500 km. [3,300 miles].

Mayor Klitschko at the scene Kiev of where a Kodiak cruise missile struck an apartment complex.

Attack against NO discernible military target? Regard rather a real-world test of an advanced but untried military system?

Further and perhaps rather ominous read further the Kodiak.

2. "Kh-101 missile test highlights Russian bomber firepower"

"A key armament for Russia’s air force continues to be long-range cruise missiles that are capable of striking targets in Europe."

Douglas Barrie |  Dated 8th February 2019 | Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace.

[....]

"In an unusual test at the end of 2018, a single Tu-160 Blackjack bomber was used to launch 12 Raduga Kh-101 long-range conventional cruise missiles. The conventionally armed Kh-101 and the Kh-102 nuclear variant are designated as the AS-23A and AS-23B Kodiak in the West." 

"The Blackjack carries the Kh-101 in two internal bays, each with a rotary launcher holding up to six of the eight-meter-long [twenty-four feet] missiles. Normal test launches and crew-familiarization firings would likely use one or two cruise missiles but not a full wartime load. Russian media also indicated that the release authorization was provided by President Vladimir Putin, which, if correct, suggests that a command-and-control element also featured in the test."

AS-23B able to carry a nuclear warhead! Prior test 2018 UNUSUAL and recognized so by foreign observers. Putin exercising the command & control link for the exercise, sending the "go code" as if if live atomic warheads in place!!

coolbert.

Cognac.

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300 bottles of cognac against Rome?

Valuable treasure hidden for a century as a result of war recovered. A good news item with the war dimension.

"300 bottles of Cognac recovered from ship sunk in WWI could fetch nearly £8,000 EACH: French shipment on Swedish steamer bound for tsarist Russia ended up at bottom of the Baltic Sea after German U-boat strike"

From the "Daily Mail" the article by By SHARI MILLER FOR MAILONLINE  | UPDATED: 26 June 2022.

* "Bottles were salvaged in 2019 by a specialist Swedish team near the Baltic Sea: * "600 bottles of cognac and 300 bottles of Benedictine were brought to shore" * "Swedish steamer Kyros was sunk by German submarine during First World War" * "Now bottles have been cleaned, refilled and are on sale for nearly £8,000 each [nearly $10,000 USD]" 

"A hoard of contraband alcohol recovered from a shipwreck 100 years after it sank on its way to tsarist Russia is going on sale for nearly £8,000 a bottle."

Damned Germans always up to no good. U-boat sinking the neutral Swedish vessel without provocation. I can bet too the Imperial Russian household mad as hell at the time too.

Those expensive bottles of cognac will be more of a collector item with expected appreciation almost instantly?

coolbert.

20 Stone.

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Without question the type of lurid tabloid material the English press delights in.

Stone = "The stone or stone weight (abbreviation: st.) is an English and imperial unit of mass equal to 14 pounds (approximately 6.35 kg)."

MORBIDLY obese Russian general brought out of retirement. Complete with specially fitted and tailored camo uniform.

"Beast from the East! Panicking Putin 'calls up OBESE 280lbs retired general, 67, to lead forces in Ukraine' after 'most of his best and battle-hardened senior commanders are killed' in war"

* "Putin has called an obese, 20-stone former general out of retirement to fight"  * "General Pavel likes to eat five meals a day and wash[es] it down with a litre [quarter of a gallon] of vodka"  * "Overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine also reported to be dismissed" * "The 'Butcher of Aleppo' will be replaced by a 'corrupt and brutal' general" * "Last week the commander of Russian airborne forces was reportedly sacked"  * "Reports suggest between 11 and 14 Russian generals have been killed in action" 

Article by WALTER FINCH FOR MAILONLINE PUBLISHED:  | UPDATED:  26 June 2022.

"Putin has called an obese general out of retirement to take command of forces in Ukraine after yet another round of purges of top commanders has left him 'scraping the barrel'."

"The 20 stone General Pavel, 67, has been summoned from his comfortable life in the Moscow suburbs and told to don his specially-made army fatigues and go to the front lines of eastern Ukraine."

I WAS GOING TO POST AN IMAGE OF GENERAL PAVEL TO ACCOMPANY THIS BLOG ENTRY BUT DECIDED OUT OF BETTER JUDGMENT NOT TO DO SO!

coolbert.

Ceuta.

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Ceuta yesterday! Ceuta today! Ceuta tomorrow? Eternal Ceuta.

Came across this one quite by accident. Prince Henry the Navigator [Portuguese] would have understood it all well. The modern context compared to the old.

From the "Daily Mail" and thanks to same. Story by WALTER FINCH and MATTHEW LODGE FOR MAILONLINE | UPDATED: 25 June 2022.

Storming of the border of the Spanish enclave Africa. Melilla. African migrants seeking entry into Europe with the promise of asylum. 

"Migrants are piled up by a border fence surrounded by riot police in shocking scenes after more than 2,000 stormed fence to break into Spanish enclave bordering Morocco, killing 23"

* "Dozens of migrants piled up at a border fence in the province of Nador, Morocco"

* "Human rights groups say some died after being left with no medical treatment"

* "It comes after 2,000 migrants tried to storm into the Spanish enclave of Mililla"

***GRAPHIC CONTENT - CONTAINS IMAGES  SOME MAY FIND DISTURBING***

NOW FOR THE REST OF THE STORY:

In this case think Ceuta rather than Mililla. Ceuta LONGEST military siege in history!

"The sieges of Ceuta (also known as the thirty-year siege) were a series of blockades by Moroccan forces of the Spanish-held city of Ceuta on the North African coast. The first siege began on 23 October 1694 and finished in 1720 when reinforcements arrived. During the 26 years of the first siege, the city underwent changes leading to the loss of its Portuguese character. While most of the military operations took place around the city walls . . . there were also small-scale penetrations by Spanish forces at various points on the Moroccan coast, and the seizure of shipping in the Strait of Gibraltar. The city was placed under a second siege in 1721 until 22 April 1727. The engagements are considered to be the longest siege in history."

In Morocco they call them the occupied 'Sebtah and Melilah'. The rest of the world knows them as the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa.

Henry the Navigator [Portuguese] capturing the fortress of Ceuta. 1415. As it was in the beginning.

"They are the only piece[s] of European territory on mainland Africa - a political and legal reality that has never been recognized by Morocco, which has continued to demand their return, along with four other smaller territories in the Mediterranean all in the narrow strait of Gibraltar."

BAD optics for Spain and Morocco both. Hard say why the Spanish just don't relinquish the territories of the two little flyspeck bits of land. Equate the assets and the debits. Just not worth it anymore.

coolbert.

Bludgeon.

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As goes Severodonetsk so goes the nation? Ukraine in big trouble!

From the Internet web site Al Jazeera and thanks to same.

Russian objective Severodonetsk attained! Massive and overwhelming force used relentlessly and in a focused manner victory for the Russian. The Ukrainian now having made a stand, lost the battle, but have retired to fight another day.

"Fall of Severodonetsk is Russia’s biggest victory since Mariupol"

"Fall of city after weeks of street fighting transforms the battlefield in the east of Ukraine to Moscow’s advantage."

Severodonetsk as shown in the images as was Mariupol before it major portions of the city reduced to rubble, uninhabitable! No one can deny the Russian artillery-centric army ability to bludgeon an adversary into submission!

"Russian forces have fully occupied Severodonetsk, the mayor of the eastern Ukrainian city said, confirming Ukraine’s biggest battlefield setback for more than a month after weeks of fighting to hold the strategic town and latest symbol of Ukrainian resistance."

Comments:

* The Ukrainian defenders retiring in an orderly manner? Ukrainian military units too depleted to conduct further military operations?

* Russian forces also severely depleted as a result of the battle? Further westward advance into Ukraine highly questionable?

* Vlad will now call a halt to combat and declare minimalist objectives the war attained? 

See prior blog entries as relevant to Severeodonetsk:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/05/culmination.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/05/severodonetsk-ii.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/05/severodonetsk.html

coolbert.

Infrastructure.

This is coolbert:

With "the handwriting on the wall" so to speak, too little too late?

"the (hand)writing on the wall: The very apparent signs that something bad will happen in the future."

"Lithuania President Wants Hike in Military Spending, More NATO Troops"

"NATO is expected to boost its presence in the region, but not as much as the Baltic states want"

From https://news.antiwar.com/ the article by Dave DeCamp Posted on June 23, 2022.

"Lithuania’s president wants his country to hike military spending to 3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to enable it to host more NATO troops as the Baltic nations are hoping for a significant increase in the alliance’s presence in the region."

[....]

"Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told Reuters this week that he hopes Lithuania can host a brigade by 2027. 'Infrastructure-wise, we are not ready to deploy a brigade-sized unit in Lithuania because there is no accommodation infrastructure here. I hope that by 2027 we will be ready,' he said."

INFRASTRUCTURE as being solely to house NATO trip-wire troops stationed Lithuania? Not strictly an increase in the size of the Lithuanian military but rather for NATO aligned forces?

Lithuania their population about 3 million souls a fairly significant portion of which Russian speakers. Ability to increase the size of the Lithuanian military [or any of the other Baltic nations for that matter] very LIMITED.

Recall that 50 % of the daily needs of Kaliningrad arrives via the overland  route through Lithuania. And those essential items not boycotted or sanctioned by NATO still permissible to and allowed to pass.

coolbert.

Goldberg.

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"A Rube Goldberg machine, named after American cartoonist Rube Goldberg, is a chain reaction-type machine or contraption intentionally designed to perform a simple task in an indirect and (impractically) overly complicated way. Usually, these machines consist of a series of simple unrelated devices; the action of each triggers the initiation of the next, eventually resulting in achieving a stated goal."

The performance of the Russian Air force [VKS] during the Ukraine Conflict has been lacking? A development if true most surprising?

As has been speculated the VKS lacking that requisite of precision-guided munitions to make a significant and meaningful contribution to the Russian war effort?

HEY! The Russian NOT needing precision-guided munitions! VKS warplanes as reported when equipped with the SVP-24 specialized computing system able to achieve bombing accuracy and obliteration of targets with amazing preciseness and precision only hitherto associated with precision-guided munitions.

Further from "The Saker":

"The pace and effectiveness of the Russian Air Force [during the Syrian campaign] has the western military experts in shock.  Not only are the number of sorties per day about 3 times as much as a US or NATO country could achieve, but the Russian airstrikes are amazingly accurate even though the Russians are flying at over 5,000 meters [about 15,000 feet] above ground, well out of reach of man portable air defense systems (MANPADS). They are even flying at night and in bad weather . . . So what is the deal here?  How did the Russians achieve these apparently quasi-miraculous results?"

Introducing the SVP-24:

"SVP stands for: 'special computing subsystem'.  What this system does is that it constantly compares the position of the aircraft and the target (using the GLONASS satellite navigation system), it measures the environmental parameters (pressure, humidity, windspeed, speed, angle of attack, etc.).  It can also receive additional information from datalinks from AWACs aircraft, ground stations, and other aircraft.  The SVP-24 then computes an 'envelope' (speed, altitude, course) inside which the dumb bombs are automatically released exactly at the precise moment when their unguided flight will bring them right over the target (with a 3-5 meter  accuracy)."

"In practical terms this means that every 30+ year old Russian 'dumb' bomb can now be delivered by a 30+ year old Russian aircraft with the same precision as a brand new guided bomb delivered by a top of the line modern bomber."

INDEED this "special computing subsystem" does to me have the appearance of a Rube Goldberg type of apparatus and that was my instantaneous thought at the time. SVP-24 was typical Russian "Potemkin Village" type stuff?

But consider further:

"Only Su-24 [Fencer] is fitted with SVP-24 targeting system. This is why Russia uses Soviet era Su-24 in Ukraine and Syria." [courtesy once more the Global Defense Corp.]

Not enough Su-24  to go around and NOW you have the REST of the story!

coolbert.

Irregulars.

This is coolbert:

The Syrian bashi bazooks Ukraine have arrived?

Syrian recruits fighting for the Russian military the Ukraine Conflict!

Click on image to see an enlarged view.

As was the topic of a previous blog entry, the recruitment of Syrian nationals to fight on the Russian side in the Ukraine Conflict duly noted and reported. See: https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/03/guards.htm

Bashi bazook to clarify in the Islamic tradition irregular fighters recruited from persons often imprisoned their release from confinement made with the proviso of military service a must!

Bashi bazook as tacitly understood not being required to follow the normal rules and conduct of land warfare. Even plunder and pillage as a common practice by the bashi bazook encouraged in an unexpressed and unspoken manner as an incentive of recruitment.

My impression is that the Syrian bashi bazook was to function as occupation troops Ukraine primarily but it seems now involved in direct combat?

coolbert.

DISMAL.

This is coolbert:

Assuredly so this aspect of the Ukraine Conflict to be talked about and debated for some time to come!

"Dismal Performance Of Russian Air Force In Ukraine, What Went Wrong?"

From www.globaldefensecorp.com | March 7, 2022 and thanks to same.

"Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February early morning, sending it air force, also known as VKS, to bomb Ukrainian cities and send troops to various Ukrainian cities via Donbass regions, Crimea, and Belarus."

"Ukraine's own  air force is still flying, which is vastly outmatched by Russia's military in terms of raw numbers and firepower. Its air defenses are still deemed viable - a fact that is baffling military experts."

"Accord to RUSI think tank Justin Bronk, The Russian Air force used limited aircraft and precision-guided munitions that visibly lacked coordination and started sporadic bombing in Ukraine."

Russian VKS deficient [surprisingly so?] with regard to:

* Inventory.

* Planning.

* Targeting pod.

* Precision-guided munition.

* Data link.

* Identification Friend or Foe (IFF).

* Airborne Surveillance and EW.

* Logistics.

Read the whole article for yourselves!

coolbert.

Spor HVT.

This is coolbert:

Consider this Mr. Spor to be a very lucky man. Repatriated and without incident.

American high-value-target [HVT] the Ukraine extracted by American civilian group specializing in such rescue operations..

"Mariupol American scientist rescued from Ukraine after months of hiding l GMA"

"A team from American nonprofit group Project Dynamo worked with local Ukrainian security to rescue nuclear scientist John Spor, who had been hiding right outside of Mariupol" Thanks additionally to #GMA #Ukraine # and You Tube.

Comments:

* What was John Spor doing in Ukraine in the first place? A man with his background I would think the Ukraine would the last place he would want to be.

* Spor was a wanted and hunted man. The Russians apparently had Spor on a list of HVT. They knew of him and his various expertise vital to the development of advanced precision munitions. Spor if captured would have undoubtedly been whisked away and interrogated in a most vigorous and hostile manner by Russian authorities. Indeed, his fate might have been very grim. 

* This Dynamo group also taking great risk. If they had been unmasked I can well imagine their fate ultimately would be also very harsh and unremitting.

coolbert.

 

Refinery.

This is coolbert:

Ukrainian kamikaze drones in action. Russian oil refinery blown sky high. All thanks to the Chinese commercial firm Alibaba?

1. "'Kamikaze’ Drones Strike Russian Oil Refinery, Looks Like Model Sold On Alibaba"

From MSN ^ | June 22, 2022 | Thomas Newdick the tip from Freeper.

"Video has emerged showing a twin-boom tail configured drone crashing into a Russian oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, in the Rostov region, on the border with Ukraine, this morning. There is already much speculation that the incident was some kind of ‘kamikaze’ drone strike conducted by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. While the identity of the mysterious drone is yet to be established, initial analysis suggests it may have been an adapted, commercially available product that is available on the Chinese marketplace website Alibaba"

2. "Dramatic moment Ukrainian kamikaze drone ploughs in to major oil refinery inside Russian territory sparking huge fireball explosion"

From the English tabloid Internet edition "Daily Mail" ^ | 6/22/2022 | Will Stewart again the tip from Freeper.

"A Ukrainian kamikaze drone today ploughed in to a major oil refinery inside Russian territory, sparking a huge fireball explosion. Footage shows the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flying at a low-level height towards the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region, which borders Ukraine. Video then shows the drone striking the oil refinery, causing a massive explosion which was heard ten miles away."

This refinery almost exactly on the internationally recognized border between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. NONETHELESS an attack on Russian infrastructure of some importance. An event that will not be taken lightly by Moscow or Vlad.

coolbert.

Cheget.

This is coolbert:

An item inconsequential [?] at best but still worthy of a blog entry.

"Putin colonel Vadim Zimin who carried Russian president’s nuclear codes found dead at home"

From FOX3NOW ^ | 22-JUN-2022 the tip from Freeper.

"A SECRETIVE colonel Vadim Zimin who carried the Russian president’s nuclear codes has been found shot at his home, it was reported. After leaving his position as an officer in the security services, the mysterious Vadim Zimin, who is 53 years old, is being investigated for allegedly accepting bribes in his new job in the customs service. Zimin is a former colonel from the Federal Security Service. During his time in the FSS, he was in charge of the briefcase that carries the Russian nuclear controls and that is always carried by the head of the Kremlin."

Zimin his duties the possession of the Russian nuclear "briefcase" hardly ordinary duty. His murder undoubtedly to be thoroughly investigated. A person specially screened and entrusted with extraordinary responsibility his death I would imagine not taken lightly by the authorities.  

Read additionally from the wiki the Russian nuclear "briefcase": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheget.

coolbert.

Unfortunately.

This is coolbert:

 “Unfortunately, I agree that there was a lack of training ammunition from the start. It is a logistical problem that was not solved in time. It should have been there, and it did not come, so it's a mistake. There is no good explanation for this. That shouldn't have happened,” - Lønborg.

NATO troops their funding for training sorely lacking. After many decades of denial and an almost lack of funding through budget cuts the chickens come home to roost. No good explanation other than cheapness.

"Danish Soldiers Sent to Latvia 'Lack Everything From Ammunition to Underpants'"

From the Russian controlled [?] Internet media outlet and thanks to same. 

SHORTAGES ABOUT! DANISH MILITARY MEN SHORT-CHANGED!

"Analyst Alexander Høgsberg Tetzlaff attributed the dramatic shortages to several years of cuts in military spending, calling it a 'huge problem'. Previously, Denmark has received criticism from NATO for not having stockpiled enough ammunition.

More likely several decades of "cuts" in military spending. 

"At the beginning of May [2022], 350 Danish soldiers were sent to Latvia with a few days' notice – ostensibly in a bid to 'deter' Russia. Subsequently it has transpired, however, that they are ill-prepared and unable to maintain a high level of combat."

Soup to nuts type of stuff it seems. Ammunition, tents, clothing. The bare essentials almost literally so!

Agreed amount of spending at a minimum and pledged never achieved. Even when acknowledged as a problem for NATO remedy never implemented. The changing geo-political situation in Europe now has the attention of everyone. Damage consider done a long time ago. Lots of catching-up-to-do and going to take some time and the resolve of various governments everyone doing their pledged share.

See previous relevant blog entries:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/appalling.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/05/outsource.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/sloth.html

coolbert.

Survivors.

This is coolbert:

Pity the plight of the poor Russian conscript sailor. 

From Ukrayinska Pravda the story by VALENTYNA ROMANENKO - 21 JUNE 2022 the tip from yahoo.com. [Ukrainian Truth]

"Sailors who survived the Moskva sinking are to be sent back to war in Ukraine, but their parents are against it"

"Parents of Russian conscripts who survived the sinking of the Moskva cruiser are saying that [the Russian authorities – ed.] want their sons to be sent back to the war against Ukraine."

"Details: The parents have appealed for the sailors not to be sent to the war zone."

"In their letter to the military prosecutor's office in Sevastopol, the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers and the human rights ombudsman, the signatories said that the conscripts had still not been moved back to dry land, contrary to promises."

CONSCRIPT SAILORS THE NOW-AT-THE-BOTTOM MOSKVA THEIR VESSEL GONE ONCE MORE BEING REQUIRED IN AN INVOLUNTARY WAY TO CONTINUE THEIR DUTY AT SEA.

So the Moskva did not sink with a total loss of life. There were survivors. Ship contingent was a mix of full-time contract personnel and conscripts. In the case of the LATTER one sinking is one too many!

The parents think so and I am sure the conscripted sailors think so too.

coolbert.

Confinement.

This is coolbert:

Continuing with more coverage, the "fragging" incident the USA military base Syria.

A culprit has been arrested and will face justice?

"American airman arrested in connection with April attack on US base in Syria"

From the "Air Force Times" as seen at yahoo.com the story by Rachel Cohen June 21, 2022.

"Military law enforcement on June 16 arrested an American airman as part of an ongoing investigation into an insider attack on a small U.S. base in northern Syria that injured four service members in April, CNN reported Tuesday."

“'An airman was taken into custody stateside in conjunction with the attack in Green Village, Syria,' Air Force spokesperson Ann Stefanek told CNN. 'After reviewing the information in the investigation, the airman’s commander made the decision to place him in pretrial confinement.'”

An airman? An airman? An angry and disaffected military man having some beef not made apparent.

coolbert.

Chills.

This is coolbet:

The clock is ticking and you had better unwind it fast pronto!!

From the obvious Russian controlled Internet web site "South Front" an alarming article in deliberate BOLD [?] type!

"INSTITUTIONALISED TERRORISM AND NUCLEAR MUSHROOM CLOUDS OVER EUROPE"

Previous very recent blog entries here and here most relevant.

"The Ukrainian leadership is at its best trying to force Moscow to undertake a more decisive action to put an end to the existence of the regime established in Kyiv."

"On June 20, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched strikes on drilling rigs belonging to the Russian 'Chernomorneftegaz' company near Crimea. 109 people were working on the rigs at the moment of the attack. As of June 21, 94 of them were evacuated. The rest are still missing. A rescue operation is underway."

"The targeted platforms, located 71km [about forty-two miles] from Odessa, are a solely civilian facility [equipped with military-grade radars say the Ukrainian] located far from any potential military targets. Therefore, the June 21 incident became just one of the latest in a long list of terrorist attacks intended to damage civilian infrastructure and cause casualties among ordinary people."

[....]

"The actions of the Washington elites and its allies not only led to the creation of the terrorist state in Europe, but officially made NATO countries participants and enablers of terrorist attacks carried out by Kyiv’s forces."

"This fact is the cornerstone of the tensions between Russia and the self-proclaimed ‘civilized world’ and no empty words from European and US diplomats about their commitment to the ‘peace in Europe’ will change this. In previous years, they made no real efforts to ‘motivate’ their puppets in Kyiv to fulfill commitments in the framework of the Minsk agreements and created conditions in which the Russian military operation in Ukraine became inevitable. Now, NATO is making active preparations for an open war with Russia under the pretext of defending ‘stability and peace in Europe’. In this scenario, NATO member states could easily find themselves closer to nuclear mushroom clouds that they have ever wanted to be. It seems that the main hope is a decisive Russian military victory over the regime in Kyiv that should happen earlier than when NATO bureaucrats decide to roll the war dice."

I hope someone in Wash DC and NATO headquarters is listening to all this. I cannot think of this being anything less than ONE MORE threat by the Russian to use atomic munitions the Ukraine Conflict. Threats repeated but never followed up on become hollow! Sooner or later the Russian will feel COMPELLED to act and WILL act.

coolbert.

Gotterdammerung.

This is coolbert:

Strange doings the Ukraine Conflict and must be properly heeded. Without question should be a source of concern to everyone.

The Russian ever since the beginning of the conflict [and continuing to make] references to the use of atomic weapons if the conditions warrant. Threat of nuclear munitions use under certain specific circumstances as most recently enunciated by the Russian ex-President Medvedev:

"Several grounds for Russia to use nuclear weapons, says Russia's former president Medvedev"

"Medvedev said there are several grounds under which Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons, including an attack on the country or encroachment on infrastructure as a result of which Russia's nuclear deterrent forces would be paralyzed."

That repeated threatening of using atomic munitions now has been repeated so many times at some point the Russian will FEEL COMPELLED to use nuclear weapons? This I have thought as a possible.

Further with the comments of an authority in such matters as I have trust in:

"Once someone does [use an atomic weapon] in a minor conflict like the Russia-Ukraine thing, the ice will have been broken."

"It will be noted the world did not end, the rest of the world did not destroy the user, the effects are not as extreme as every one said they would be . . . it is not as effective as reputed to be . . . and, most importantly, others now with the weapons will note the lack of unified response."

"Those presently without such weapons, but with the ability to make them (for starters, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Germany, South Korea, Brazil, India—it stopped its production—Indonesia, and any nation who is facing a threat from one of the present day nuclear club, such as Finland, Sweden, or Turkey), will suddenly see the need to have nukes, no matter what the present members of the nuclear club say." 

"And the desire to stop the proliferation of any more nations joining that now exclusive club will be greatly reduced by the Realpolitik of having the weapons versus the PR effect of the condemnation of the current club members and the imagined distaste of the rest of the world who can’t make or afford to buy such weapons." 

"As I said, the ice will have been broken. And all because a current member of the club used them not in an existential crisis, but in a minor, backwater conflict because the club member [Russia] was too embarrassed to lose that conflict. Ukraine is not invading Russia, threatening to destroy that nation in a Gotterdammerung such as experienced by World War II Germany or Japan . . ."

TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS MIGHT BE EMPLOYED BY THE RUSSIAN WILL SET OFF BOTH A LITERAL AND  FIGURATIVE "CHAIN REACTION" WITH CONSEQUENCES MOST DETRIMENTAL TO THE WHOLE WORLD!

coolbert.

Sought.

This is coolbert:

Nothing like this since the days of World War One? The military deserter as a formed entity considerable numbers just giving up the fight the Ukraine Conflict. "Wanderers".

"200 Russian deserters wandering in woods in Kharkiv Oblast"

From "The New Voice of Ukraine" the tip thanks to yahool.com June 21, 2022.

Russian deserters the Ukraine Conflict hundreds of them forming their own colony. A self-sustaining grouping of disaffected, angry and discouraged young men. 

"The Russian deserters were noticed by residents of Borova, a small town near the city of Izyum, close to Kharkiv. Borova community council in turn wrote about them on social media."

“'They (the Russians) came back here – injured, covered with dirt, hungry, full of anger, with their equipment damaged,' an official with the council wrote."

“'Then they found a place for refuge in our village to recover. We have information that approximately 200 Russians are now hiding in the woods close to our village. They’re being sought by their commanders.'”

SURVIVAL FROM THIS POINT ONWARD BASED ON SCROUNGING, SCAVENGING, BEGGING AND EVEN STEALING AT GUNPOINT FROM THE LOCALS. MILITARY DESERTERS IN SUCH A  SITUATION. DESPERATE MEN WHO WILL IF NECESSARY RESORT TO DESPERATE MEASURES!

Read the experience of such military deserters during the Great War [WW1]. A practice not common but not so uncommon either. Referred to as apocrypha but I prefer to think more real than not.

Need I say to anybody what the fate of these men will be if they are repatriated to Russia?

coolbert.

Boiko.

This is coolbert:

More Ukrainian military success the Black Sea.

Oil and gas drilling rigs the Black Sea attacked by Ukrainian  missiles with significant damage.

From Ukrayinska Pravda 20 JUNE 2022. [Ukrainian Truth]

"Ukrainian defenders attack "Boiko towers" stolen by Russia in the Black Sea"

"The Armed Forces of Ukraine have hit the 'Boiko towers' - drilling rigs belonging to the Russian-appropriated Chornomornaftogaz [an oil and gas company located in Simferopol, Crimea, that was 'nationalized' by the Crimean authorities after the annexation of the peninsula]."

Quote from Aksenov: "This morning the enemy struck the drilling rigs of Chornomornaftogaz. I am in touch with colleagues from the Ministry of Defense and the FSB [Russian Federal Security Service] and we are working to save people." [Sergei Aksyonov, Russia’s puppet leader in Crimea]

This satellite view an image taken from the H. I. Sutton Internet web site "Covert Shores". Click on image to see an enlarged view. See also the H. I. Sutton article the attack on the Boiko Towers as much as is presently known. All thanks to H. I. Sutton.

The Boiko Towers deemed a legitimate target by the Ukrainian. As alleged military-grade radars have been mounted on the towers by the Russian that allow for extensive coverage of the Black Sea.

coolbert.

Measures.

This is coolbert:

Russia speaks. You must listen. And NOW!

STEPS and MEASURES.

"Russia warns NATO-member Lithuania over Kaliningrad transit"

Think all this within context of the Lithuanian response to the USA/NATO sanctions as imposed on Russia.

"LONDON (Reuters) -Russia warned NATO member Lithuania on Monday that unless the transit of goods [overland route] to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take undisclosed measures to defend its national interests."

From Reuters the tip thanks to yahoo.com June 20, 2022.

"With east-west relations at a half-century low over Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Vilnius banned the transit of goods [overland route] sanctioned by the European Union through Lithuanian territory to and from the exclave, citing EU sanction rules."

About 50 % of goods as basic daily needs Kaliningrad comes via the overland route through Lithuania. Folks in Kaliningrad going to have to tighten their belts.

Forget about the Fulda Gap in Germany. Think rather the Suwalki Gap. See previous blog entries Suwalki the topic:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/10/suwalki-gap.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/10/suwalki.html

coolbert.

Insulting?

This is coolbert:

A stupid mistake! Or something more so?

Consider within context of a very previous blog entry. Imagery with a military dimension confusing.

"Dems apologize for using Russian warships in convention tribute to vets"

By | Fox News as reported covering the Democratic convention of 2012.

"Democrats apologized Wednesday for using a fleet of Russian warships as the backdrop for a Democratic National Convention tribute to U.S. military veterans, blaming a vendor for the mistake."

"The event occurred on the final night of last week’s convention when retired Adm. John Nathman paid tribute to veterans, in front of a gigantic screen that showed four ships from the Russian Federation Navy."

Russian warships steaming and not American. A tribute to American veterans as at the Democratic national convention 2012.

"The mistake was exposed earlier this week by at least two experts who told The Navy Times they were certain the ships were Russian and that the backdrop image appears to be a composite photo that includes U.S. trainer jets flying overhead."

My instantaneous and intuitive response to this incident was that it was not just a stupid mistake. Was a deliberate insider joke. Done on purpose, a prank with a less than innocent motivation. Even done as an insult and intentionally so! My opinion.

coolbert.

Consensual.

This is coolbert:

Blockrats again! The English lads behaving badly. Best of the best, the famous British paratroopers. See previous blog entry from some time ago now the Blockrat phenomenon.

Barrack shenanigans. Women of loose moral virtue [blockrats] smuggled onto a British military installation. Women of loose moral virtue engaging in sexual activity with multiple soldiers. Strictly forbidden by regulations!

"shenanigan: noun - 2a: tricky or questionable practices or conduct b: high-spirited or mischievous activity"

Not a common practice but not so uncommon either. Caught on tape and evidently posted on the Internet for the whole world to see.

"English Paratroopers Caught on Camera Having an Orgy at Their Barracks"

 07.06.2022© AFP 2022 / KIRSTY O'CONNOR

NOT rape, consensual, but troubling to the higher-ups.

"The orgy did not appear to involve rape, as the sex is reported to have been consensual, but the incident nonetheless drew scrutiny from the Royal Military Police."

"Soldiers from the 3rd Battalion the Parachute Regiment were recorded having an orgy at their barracks with a woman they apparently smuggled onto the base, The Sun reported."

"One of the soldiers reportedly saluted as his pal was having sex with a red-headed woman. According to Belfast Telegraph, up to a dozen soldiers participated in the orgy. Troops from the 16 Air Assault Brigade were seen watching the process."

SNUBBING THE REGULATIONS AND SNEAKING A WOMAN ONTO THE BASE FOR UNSEEMLY PURPOSES MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE THE BIG THRILL OF THE ENTIRE ESCAPADE. HEADS SURELY WILL ROLL OVER THIS ONE.

coolbert.

Mural.

This is coolbert:

Russian big time egg on face! Quickly pointed out and corrected.

"have egg on (one's) face: To be suffering embarrassment as a result of some public failure or faux pas."

"The U.S attack submarine in Russian Navy base Gadzhievo has been repainted to a Russian sub carrying a 'Z'"

"'What a splendid mural has appeared in Gadzhievo,' regional Governor Andrei Chibis exclaims after painters hastily redesigned the house wall in the Northern Fleet base.

Story from "The Independent Barents Obeserver" | By Atle Staalesen June 17, 2022.

"It has been a busy week for muralists Natalya Popova and Sergei Beresnev. Only few days ago, the two artists completed a large wall painting in Gadzhievo, the closed military town that houses Russia’s new submarines."

"The mural depicted a submarine sailing in surface position surrounded by stormy waves and clouds. The picture had won an online design competition conducted by local authorities."

"The only problem was that the submarine was not Russian, but American. The mural displayed a U.S submarine, probably of the Los Angeles-class, a kind of sub that frequently hunts Russian  vessels in the Barents Sea only few kilometers off the coast from Gadzhievo."

Los Angeles class American submarine as depicted replaced by a Soviet/Russian Delta class missile firing boat. Situation remedied.

Faux pas indeed! I hope Natalya and Sergei not off to the Gulag.

coolbert.

Unavoidable.

This is coolbert:

As it was in the Winter War of 1940 so will it be too in the Ukraine Conflict 2022?

A negotiated settlement preceded by a truce and cease-fire?

“Ukraine alone should decide whether or not to accept any territorial concessions towards Russia with a view to ending the war.”  

As reported by DEBKAfile dated  Jun 17, 2022. [portions as extracted more or less in entirety]

"Western voices press quietly to end Ukraine war. Ceding territory to Moscow unavoidable"

"President Joe Biden’s decision this week to grant Ukraine another billion-dollar package for its war effort against Russia did not preclude questions in Washington and from its allies as to how long this war can go on. Washington has advanced a total of $5.6bn to Kyev since the Russian invasion of Feb. 24. The administration is currently up against 8.5pc inflation in America and other domestic challenges. Russia, for its part, has sold oil to the West worth $97 bn, enough to bankroll its Ukraine war and draw the sting of sanctions from its economy. By the end of the year, Moscow will have netted $285 bn from its energy sales compared with $236 bn in 2021."

"The West has meanwhile slowed down deliveries of advanced weaponry, the Ukrainian army has begun complaining. Western military sources note that the fighting forces’ capacity to absorb the newfangled weaponry is declining along, tragically, with their numbers."

"As the cost of the war becomes increasingly exorbitant, more and more voices are being raised in Western capitals calling for a roadmap to a solution of the Ukraine war." 

Ukrainian position now untenable. Domestic concerns of the NATO allies also great. Supplies of vital Russian energy [natural gas & oil] to Europe in jeopardy. 

A negotiated settlement after a cease-fire with give-and-take inevitable?

I imagine a truce and negotiations in the manner of those that ended the Korean War will commence. Cease-fire line where the troops of the opposing sides presently in contact with one another.

Sporadic fighting sometimes of an intense nature continuing but a final solution in the favor of the Russian with MINIMALIST goals of Moscow and Vlad realized. Ukraine will lose Donbass and Luhansk regrettably so!

coolbert.

Kaliningrad.

This is coolbert:

Lithuania does have a large [?] Russian speaking population. And was part of Imperial Russia and illegally incorporated in the Soviet Union in 1940.

Now suddenly this?

"BREAKING: Did Lithuania Light the Fuse on World War III?"

From GATEWAY PUNDIT ^ | 6/18/2022 | larry johnson the tip Freeper.

"In a move of staggering stupidity and hubris, Lithuanian banned the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad effective today, June 18, 2022. Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland on the west and Lithuania on the east, is home to almost a half-million Russians and the headquarters for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Sea force. Lithuania claims it is simply abiding by the sanctions imposed by the European Union. After all, Lithuania is a member of the European Union and NATO. But that is the point. This is a deliberate provocation. It is laying economic siege to a vital interest of Russia...."

Expect the anger and ire of Vlad to wax exceedingly hot? This will be seen as a NATO act of war. Blockade of Kaliningrad overland access now denied! 

The fuse has been lit and we now anticipate the big bang. Sure hope not. Some damn fool thing in Kaliningrad.

coolbert.

RED.

This is coolbert:

Purged. Sacked. Dismissed. Out-of-favor. Banished.

Russian general officers the Ukraine Conflict if not killed gotten rid of for failure. And pronto it seems.

YET one more senior man gone! Andrey Serdyukov.

From "The Sun the article by Will Stewart and  Adrian Zorzut 18 Jun 2022.

"RED RIGHT HAND Vladimir Putin PURGES top general over Ukraine war disaster as Russia’s losses now ‘could be as high as 50,000 soldiers’"

"Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, 60, was ditched for the devastating 'mass casualties' among Putin's elite paratroopers, it has been alleged."

"Vladimir Putin is said to be micromanaging the war, according to several sources"

"The speculation comes as a Russian source is said to have suggested the country’s overall losses in Ukraine are close to 50,000 - significantly higher than most other estimates."

That is 50,000 killed-in action? Golly Miss Molly! That is a lot in slightly over three months.

HEY! No one ever said this was going to be easy! Or did they?

coolbert.

Fragging.

This is coolbert:

I thought this was all a thing of the past. Evidently it is not so.

Fragging. A not common event during the Vietnam War but not so rare either.

"Fragging is the deliberate or attempted killing by a soldier of a fellow soldier, usually of a superior officer or non-commissioned officer (NCO)"

"US service member may have planted explosives in inside attack at Army base, injuring 4 others"

Original story from AP/Baderkhan Ahmad thanks to the tip from yahoo.com by David Propper June 6, 2022.

"Army officials said a service member [USA] may have carried out an attack that injured four fellow soldiers."

"An inside attack on a US military base in Syria that injured four soldiers might have been carried out by a fellow service member, Army officials said."

"The potential suspect is back stateside as the Army’s Criminal Investigation Division and Air Force Office of Special Investigations probes the April 7 attack on the base called Green Village, an Army spokesperson said."

The weapon of choice during fragging incidents usually a hand grenade. In this case it is reported that a MORTAR ROUND was used!

With the voluntary military USA you might have well reasoned that indeed fragging was a thing of the past relegated to the history books. Angry, hate-filled and disaffected conscripts no longer filling the ranks with grudges against superiors. I guess I am not so totally correct.

coolbert.

Leaked.

This is coolbet:

Surely this one must be categorized in the strange but true category.

Establish bona fides and gravitas. An EXPERT on the subject.

"Gamer Leaks Classified Chinese Tank Schematics to Win Online Argument"

By LUCAS NOLAN 4 Jun 2022 Breitbart.com

"A fan of the popular military video game War Thunder reportedly leaked classified Chinese tank schematics in an effort to win an online argument."

Appears to be a schematic of a Chinese anti-tank round as possibly fired from the gun of a main battle tank. A HVFSAPDS round as referred to. High-velocity fin-stabilized armor-piercing discarding-sabot. Whoever released this document to "prove" their knowledge and expertise possibly more than likely leaking classified information.

"Task and Purpose reports that fans of the popular online free-to-play military video game War Thunder have become so passionate about the game and military history that they’ve begun sharing classified schematics of real-life military vehicles during online arguments."

"This has now happened on three separate occasions, with users leaking classified military documents in an effort to ensure that War Thunder is as accurate to real life as possible. The game features land, air, and sea craft, and has a player base of roughly 50,000 players. The latest incident involves information on the penetrator section of a Chinese tank cannon shell leaked in a post in Mandarin Chinese which includes a technical diagram."

Gonna be hell to pay for the culprit when caught. And I sure the Chinese going to be assiduous in hunting the individual down with the maximum penalty a possible.

Need I say what the maximum penalty for such an offense in China would be?

coolbert.

Scheme.

This is coolbert:

War is a game for young men!

PENSIONS FOR RETIRED MILITARY PERSONNEL ABSORB 25 % OF THE INDIAN MILITARY ANNUAL BUDGET! TOO MUCH! A LONG-TERM SOLUTION HAS BEEN FOUND?

1. "India overhauls military recruitment, seeking younger troops"

From Reuters through yahoo.com the story by Devjyot Ghoshal June 14, 2022.

"NEW DELHI (Reuters) -India's military is overhauling its recruitment process for personnel below officer rank, aiming to deploy fitter, younger troops on its front lines, many of them on shorter contracts of up to four years, defense officials said on Tuesday."

[....]

"Soldiers have been recruited by the army, navy and the air force separately and typically enter service for a period of up to 17 years for the lowest ranks."

"Under the new system, men and women between the ages of 17 and a half and 21 will be brought into the armed forces, many of them for a maximum four-year tenure."

And the response has been:

2. "Gravitas: Indian youth protest Agnipath recruitment scheme"

From Gravitas | Jun 17, 2022 reported by Palki Sharma.

"Trains were burnt and highways blocked as Indian youth protested the government's new military recruitment scheme. What explains the opposition to Agnipath? Is it time for Indians to rethink their obsession with government jobs? Palki Sharma tells you."

With the seventeen year enlistment [?] you are guaranteed a pension after retirement. That is big in India. With the four year contract, no pension after your enlistment for the limited period ends.

An enormous savings in long-run but as perceived by Indian youth a slap-in-the-face. Government work of whatever type with pension highly sought after in India.

Go see the embedded Gravitas video. Narrated by Palki Sharma.

Younger men anyhow make better soldiers? In the sense they are more physically fit and lacking familial ties of wife and children. A "game" for young men.

coolbert.