T-34 2022.

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T-34 tanks still going strong? World War Two tank being used the Ukraine War 2022? Is it even contemplated much less even possible?

SKEPTICAL and UNBELIEVING. Maybe you should be?

See the Mark Felton You Tube video.

"WW2 T-34 Tanks - Ukraine War 2022"

Comments:

* Evidently a number of nations still retain their T-34 in service but inventory limited. T-34 generally rated as BEST general purpose tank of WW2. Not by everyone however.

* Recent combat use of the T-34 confined to scant numbers. Balkans, Yemen, Donbass 2014.

* Ukraine Conflict 2022 single use of a T-34 as mentioned in the Mark Felton video a single tank being used as an armored pillbox at a roadblock.

* T-34 as a monument to the Red Army during WW2 very popular. Tanks used in this fashion according to what I know gutted, no engine, crew compartment stripped of any vital internals.

* Those Laotian T-34 as purchased by the Laotian to be used for commemorative and remembrance purposes?

Perhaps even yet the Ukraine Conflict we will see a Soviet era WW2 warplane Po-2 in action? Wood-and-fabric warplane weed-hopper. An-2 in a SEAD role active, antiquated aircraft hardly qualifying as a modern warplane.

coolbert.

Bryansk.

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Hot off presses from the Internet web site of the known FBI agent provocateur Hal Turner and posted to the blog with much concern and apprehensiveness.

 29 JULY 2022 

"UKRAINE STRIKES RUSSIA TERRITORY (WITH HIMARS?)"

"A massive explosion has taken place inside Russia proper, after an ammunition dump in Bryansk, Kilmovo Region of Russia was apparently hit by Ukraine."

Azov battalion neo-Nazi incarcerated POW their prison also struck by American-supplied Ukrainian HIMARS missiles?

"This particular attack comes just AFTER Ukraine used HIMARS (supplied by the USA) to strike a Russian POW camp to kill-off Ukrainian AZOV Battalion prisoners in the Yelenovka Penal Colony."

"Both that penal colony and the explosion inside Russia, are within the same general area.  If HIMARS was used to hit the penal colony, it is highly likely that HIMARS was also used to hit the ammo dump inside Russia."

"Russia has publicly and repeatedly warned that if U.S. supplied HIMARS were used against Russian territory, Russia would declare the US to be a combatant in Ukraine, and launch military attacks against US/NATO targets."

PUBLIC and REPEATED warnings made. I have said this before and will say it again. One day the Russian is going to feel COMPELLED  to RETALIATE with consequences too dire to contemplate!

Hold onto your hats everyone and hold on tight!

coolbert.

2SF 3F5.

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From the Internet web site "Blazing Cat Fur" and thanks to same.

Claims and counter-claims the Ukraine Conflict. Indeed truth is the first casualty of war.

"Ukraine War: Russia Says 40 Ukrainian Prisoners Killed In Blast"

Azov Battalion neo-Nazi prisoners of the Russian killed. Ukrainian artillery shelling or Russian artillery shelling? Take your pick. Each side going to insist the other are to blame. "The Russians did it!" "The Ukrainian did it!"

"Russia’s defense ministry says 40 Ukrainian prisoners-of-war have been killed by Ukrainian shelling of a prison in separatist-held Donetsk."

"Officials alleged that 75 others had been injured in a rocket strike on the prison camp in Olenivka. The BBC cannot independently verify this claim."

"Ukraine’s military denied carrying out the strike and instead accused Russia of shelling the prison."

See additionally the two embedded video the "Cat Fur" web site entry:

Soviet/'Russian 240 mm mortar in action Mariupol. 2SF. Also the mortar round as laser-guided to the target an impressive spectacle. 3F5.

THAT 240 MM MORTAR BELIEVED TO HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO FIRE AN ATOMIC ROUND.

See all previous blog entries mention of the Russian 240 mm mortar made:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/05/severodonetsk-ii.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/05/severodonetsk.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2021/01/daredevil.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/09/warning.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2017/11/2c4.html

coolbert.

Tallboy WW2.

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See the article by Bayou Renaissance Man the hazards of fighting forest and grass fires on  land which has buried non-exploded ordnance [bang stuff].

Watch the embedded video a British World War Two bomb Tallboy "earthquake" bomb the attempt to render harmless failed. Bomb as dropped by British RAF in an effort to sink the German cruiser Lützow.

Thanks to You Tube for the video:

"In October 2020 an unexploded Tallboy bomb from the attack on Lützow was found in the Piast Canal . . . After evacuating approximately 750 people who lived nearby, an attempt was undertaken to deflagrate it with a remote-controlled device, but it exploded, without casualties."

From a comment:

Skyler the Weird said: "Back in the 60's they were still finding unexploded ordnance at Vicksburg. My cub scout master had cannonballs all over his yard from forays in the National Military Park before they banned treasure hunters in the 70's. Often wonder if any exploded"

Indeed this is so. A number of years ago an EXPERT in American Civil War ordnance was blown to bits while burnishing a sixty-pound cannonball unexploded from the era.

coolbert.

Monument Kola.

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“Today, it is our common obligation not to allow the reemergence of Nazism that has brought such suffering to the people of various countries. It is essential to preserve and convey to our descendants truth about the happenings of the war years, commons spiritual values and traditional brotherly friendship.” -Vlad Putin.

Even as the battle and conflict rages, already war memorials are being raised. Russia remembers.

"New Russian war monument near border to Norway praises battle and aggression in Ukraine"

"The flags of Moscow’s two puppet regions, the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, waived in the air as locals from the Pechenga district this weekend gathered for the opening of a monument honoring war and bravery in Ukraine."

From the "Barents Observer" the story By Atle Staalesen July 26, 2022.

"The Kola Peninsula has hundreds of war memorials paying tribute to Soviet soldiers and victims of Nazi German aggression during the Second World War. Now, new monuments are popping up to the honor of Russian aggressors and war criminals fighting in Ukraine."

[....]

"However, unlike most of the Soviet WW2 memorials in the area, the new monument does not honor men fallen in battle, but rather the war and battle in itself."

[....]

"The monument has the shape of a small wall made by bricks and includes three plates with inscriptions. The top one explains that 'this memorial is erected to the honor of participants in the fight against Fascism, Nazism and terrorism.'”

NOT a traditional memorial in the Soviet grandiose style. Much less pretentious and conspicuous.

Obviously too the perspectives of the Russian and Norwegian the Ukraine Conflict radically different. Russians actions and the war itself unsparingly seen by the latter in a very negative light.

coolbert.

Astrology II.

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Further and concluding analysis and appraisal the Ukraine Conflict based on an astrological assessment.

By Johnnietwobrows the story as seen in the webzine of "Soldier of Fortune".

"What’s In the Stars for Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Soldier of Fortune Consults an Astrologer"

"The following analysis is based on Zelenskyy’s birth date of January 25, 1978, in Kryvyi Rih, a city in central Ukraine." 

In the nutshell key points and take-aways:

* "Over the course of the next six months, here’s how I [Johnnietwobrows] see this war progressing"

* "Zelenskyy will continue to hold the line as much as possible, changing tactics whenever necessary to keep the Russians off balance." 

* "Public opinion on the war in Ukraine may start to vary wildly and some may even start to advocate negotiating with Putin to end it, but I do not see Zelenskyy seriously considering ceding territory to Russia."

* "At the same time, ending it could be Zelenskyy’s best option [ceding territory] and may very well come into play toward August-September 2022."

Once more and in total agree with what I said previously: "I might well expect the appraisal of Johnnietwobrows based on his consultation of the stars to be NOT a whole lot less accurate than that of any American intelligence, CIA included."

coolbert.

Astrology I.

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Strategic analysis and appraisal the Ukraine Conflict an astrologer?

Thanks to Johnnietwobrows June 11, 2022. Story from the online webzine "Soldier of Fortune".

"What’s In the Stars For Vladimir Putin? Soldier of Fortune Consults an Astrologer"

"Putin’s chart shows a man who knows how to start, but not finish, a war."

"The puzzle proceeds from 9:30 a.m. on Oct. 7, 1952, when baby Vladimir was born under a Libra sun."

Keypoints and take-away:

* "Over the course of the next year, here’s what I [Johnnietwobrows] would generally expect from him in this campaign"

* "Changing goals and objectives quickly, especially between the end of June and the end of October 2022."

* "Continued struggles to achieve military objectives and project power in Ukraine, especially through mid-January of 2023."

* "If the war still is in progress in April-May of 2023, you’ll see more of the same, with a gradual but visible detachment between Putin and the reality of this conflict."

To an extent I might well expect the appraisal of Johnnietwobrows based on his consultation of the stars to be NOT a whole lot less accurate than that of any American intelligence, CIA included.

coolbert.

Reichstag.

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Storming of the Reichstag 2022?

Article here from 2017. Russian youth being prepared for war well in advance of the Ukraine Conflict. Participants storming the Reichstag parliament building a "scaled-down replica" as it is referred to.

That climactic event of the Second World War for the Soviet now everyone in "youth army training" can enjoy?

"Russia to Build Miniature Reichstag for Youth Army Training"

From "The Moscow Times" Feb. 22, 2017.

Replica now complete, used by reenactors.

"Russian children will soon be able to storm a miniature version of the German parliament building to relive the Soviet capture of Nazi Berlin as part of training."

"The scaled-down replica of Germany's iconic Reichstag building will be used by budding soldiers in Russia's Youth Army, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Wednesday."

"The Youth Army was formed in 2015 to encourage patriotic fervor among Russia's youth, as well as to teach basic military skills to children as young as 10."

Many of those participants "the youth army" now serving with Russian army units the Ukraine? A kindermord I fear going to occur if it has not already been so!

coolbert.

Games.

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Sit ludos incipere. Let the games begin!

Game theory within the dimension of the Ukraine Conflict. I recommend these links highly.

Before 24 February 2022.

1. "Game Theory Shows Path to Avoid Russia War in Ukraine"

2. "Tensions in Ukraine – A Game Theory Perspective" 

See the You Tube video for a somewhat understandable explanation of game theory. Game theory hardly limited to geo-political machinations and intrigue.

Additionally in the aftermath of 24 February and continuing game theory THE Ukrainian dimension.

3. "Op-Ed: What game theory can tell us about the war in Ukraine"

4. "What game theory says about Ukraine war negotiations"

Again, game theory the use of not confined to military confrontation or geo-political strategy or scheme and plot. Can apply to a wide range of human endeavor of which waging war is just one of them.

coolbert.

Kyrgyz.

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First the Buryats. Now the Kyrgyz? And perhaps the Uzbeks too?

Russian manpower woes as alleged the Ukraine Conflict solved or at least alleviated with further recruiting of specific national and ethnic groups?

Yet more and concluding posts the source "Ukrainian Truth".

Wagner Group on the prowl. Looking for more volunteers. Pay for an ethnic minority Russia very good?

"Wagner mercenaries start recruiting Kyrgyz residents for the war in Ukraine mass media"

UKRAINSKA PRAVDA – MONDAY, 25 JULY 2022.

"The Center for Investigative Journalism 'MediaHub' has drawn attention to the appearance in social networks in Kyrgyzstan of ads by private military company (PMC) Wagner about recruiting citizens for the war in Ukraine under the guise of recruiting employees for private security companies in the regions of Russia.

Source: "'MediaHub', Radio Azattyk"

Details: "Journalists published a screenshot of the corresponding ad posted on the kg.zarplata channel on Instagram. It seems that individuals are being recruited to protect industrial enterprises with the prospect of obtaining Russian citizenship. The salary starts from 100,000 rubles per month.  The same ads are being placed with a focus on citizens of Uzbekistan."

For an ethnic minority in Russia such as a Kyrgyz national that pay of about $1,600 USD per month a tidy sum I imagine and enticing to many young men of military age.

Distinct national military units were a common phenomenon of the Red Army during World War Two. But since that period almost totally done away with. During wartime exigencies such measures are often required?

coolbert.

Aircrews.

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Continuing posts the Ukrainian Conflict source "Ukrainian Truth".

"Pilots of Russian state airlines participate in the war against Ukraine Intelligence"

VALENTYNA ROMANENKO – Sunday, 24 JULY 2022.

"Pilots and aviation personnel of Russian state airlines operating within the structure of the Ministry of Defense of the occupying country [Russia] are involved in the Russian military aggression against Ukraine."

Source: "Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine"

Quote: "The crews of AN-124-100 and IL-76 MD aircraft have repeatedly transported personnel, weapons and military equipment to participate in the war against the people of Ukraine."

"On social media and in private conversations, airmen express dissatisfaction with their participation in servicing of the combat operations, complain about the impossibility to go abroad for themselves and their families and discuss their prosecution and punishment for war crimes after the inevitable military defeat of Russia."

Russian civilian aircraft being used in the military role as transports. Pilots in the Soviet fashion even while not on military duty having a reserve status and liable to be called to active duty on a moments notice. USA has a somewhat similar aviation structure and used during the recent Afghan evacuation.

All Soviet/Russian civilian aircraft designed from the start with military use as an option, features incorporated that make for a very quick reconfiguration on command?

"I was only obeying orders. I am just a little man. I have done nothing seriously wrong."

coolbert.

100 %.

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Yet more from Ukrainian Truth. Ukrainian air defenses still possessing an amazing ability to shoot down incoming Russian cruise missiles of the Kalibr variety.

Ukrainian air defenses not destroyed to the extent the Russian has previously claimed? Seems so. 

"'100% result': in the morning, air defense system shot down all 4 missiles over the Khmelnytskyi region"

ROMAN PETRENKO — SUNDAY, 24 JULY 2022.

"On the morning of 24 July, the Ukrainian air defense system shot down all 4 cruise missiles launched in the Khmelnytskyi region."

Source: "Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the live national 24-hour newscast"

Quote from Ihnat: "Today (24 July - ed.) our air defense system worked perfectly, we have had a 100% result for almost the first time.

"In the morning, there was a missile attack from the Black Sea: four Kalibr missiles flew towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast."

Missiles as presumably launched from Russian submarines on patrol the Black Sea.

As has been reported the Russian during the five months of the war has launched 3,000 cruise missiles the direction of Ukrainian targets! An immense and prodigious use of advanced technology I might think severely depleting existing Russian inventory of these weapons systems. Not easily or cheaply replaced either.

coolbert.

Spotters.

This is coolbert:

Here begins a series of blog entries, short and terse and to the point, the Ukraine Conflict, original stories from "Ukrayinska Pravda". Ukrainian Truth. All tips courtesy yahoo.com

The veracity of "Truth" I am unable to confirm or deny or will even attempt to do so. Stories to the extent as described have a certain plausible credibility about them is the best I can say. 

"The police have uncovered a network of Russian artillery spotters in Toretsk in the Donetsk region."

Source: National Police of Ukraine

ROMAN PETRENKO – MONDAY, 25 JULY 2022.

Details: "According to the police, they are local residents and administrators of a Telegram chat."

Men and women mercenary spies for the Russian reporting the positions of Ukrainian troops. Endangering Ukrainian military personnel to enemy artillery fire.

"A woman and two men gave the occupiers [Russians] the coordinates of the deployment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the locations of shell strikes. Law enforcement officers exposed the entire chain of occupier accomplices, who collected information for the Russian forces using a messenger app."

"It was established that the woman, a 29-year-old resident of Toretsk, provided information about the location of the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for money."

Under normal circumstances these three individuals will be given a speedy but fair trial, found guilty, executed all in a single day. Perhaps better to imprison and use later for barter as part of prisoner exchange.

American soldiers landing on the beaches of Normandy, 6 June 1944 told in advance to keep your distance from French civilians, cordial and civil but nothing more. French Vichy collaborators working for the German as artillery spotters the fear.

coolbert.

Ripples.

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Here with miscellaneous reads the Ukraine conflict. I recommend highly without reservation or qualification. 

1. "Ukraine could push Japan, S Korea to go nuclear"

From "Asia Times" ^ 7/24/2022 the tip from Freeper.

"The war in Ukraine called into question many of the fundamental pillars of the international order. The European security system that has developed since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact has received a shattering blow. A war of aggression by a major power intent to destroy a neighboring state and annex significant territories has broken with major taboos, not to mention international law."

Read additionally from several Internet web sites the feasibility of both South Korea [ROK] and Japan to go nuclear.

https://thebulletin.org/2021/10/how-bad-would-a-nuclear-armed-south-korea-be-let-us-count-the-ways/

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2019/10/how-japan-could-go-nuclear

2. "Last Stand at Azovstal: Inside the Siege That Shaped the Ukraine War"

"For 80 days, at a sprawling steelworks, a relentless Russian assault met unyielding Ukrainian resistance. This is how it was for those who fought, and for those trapped beneath the battlefield."

Within the American military historical context think Alamo, Wake Island, Corregidor.

From the archive of the New York Times By Michael Schwirtz July 24, 2022 the tip from "Blazing Cat Fur".

Thank you New York Times and Michael Schwirtz. Well done. 

coolbert.

Starlink F-35.

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The Elon Musk Starlink Internet constellation of satellites having proven their worth as a communications network during the Ukraine Conflict hardly having escaped the notice of the American military. 

Starlink especially seen as an option for military communications in remote areas of the world where high-technology Internet networks and access either meager to slim or none.

"US military tested something with Elon Musk – here’s what it is"

Testing one-two-three.

Thanks to the American Military News and the article by LIZ GEORGE JULY 22, 2022.

"Earlier this year, the United States Air Force started testing Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite Internet to see if it could be used to support F-35A fighter jets in locations that are typically isolated."  

"The 388th Fighter Wing’s Operations Support Squadron stated in a March 31 press release that the Air Force used Starlink 'for the first time, cyber airmen used satellite and cellular internet capabilities to connect an F-35 Lightning II deployed debrief facility and looped back into the Air Force network’s ‘central point of entry’ for F-35 supply chain and logistics.'”

"Starlink is potentially an ideal communications option for the Air Force due to the system’s small equipment and simple operation that can be set up in less than 10 minutes by any trained Airman."

See articles as applicable the performance of the Starlink network during the Ukraine Conflict:

https://nypost.com/2022/04/28/ukrainian-soldier-says-elon-musks-starlink-changed-the-war-with-russia/

https://www.pcmag.com/news/pentagon-impressed-by-starlinks-fast-signal-jamming-workaround-in-ukraine

coolbert.

Unilateral.

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“If Russia’s aggression is tolerated, it may give the wrong impression that unilateral changes in the status quo are allowed in other regions, including Asia,” 

Thanks here to the tip from Stefan:

"Ukraine war — and impact on Asia — take top billing in Japan defense white paper"

From Japan Times | BY JESSE JOHNSON Jul 22, 2022.

"Japan underscored the potentially long-lasting impact of the war in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific region in its annual defense white paper released Friday, devoting an entirely new section to the conflict and its implications for Asia."

"The focus on the ongoing conflict thousands of kilometers [miles] away comes as Japan looks warily at military powerhouse China and its plans for self-ruled Taiwan, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warning repeatedly that 'Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.'"

Japan of course their greatest concern the Chinese threat. Senkaku Islands in particular the sovereignty of which questionable, China and Japan both claiming ownership. 

Some experts too commenting that an increasingly large Japanese military to include an enlarged deep-water maritime naval force an indication of waning American power and influence in the world. An America too that within the perspective of the Afghan debacle CANNOT and SHOULD NOT be so easily trusted!

Read at these web sites articles that describe the slow but steady increase in size and lethality of the Japanese pelagic-deep water navy: 

https://news.usni.org/2019/05/29/japan-maritime-self-defense-force-expanding-as-tokyo-takes-new-approach-to-maritime-security

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/inventions/japanese-navy-to-extend-its-reach-into-pacific-again-and-the-us-is-happy-about-it/news-story/33aecd04b912ad048ad2d17d5fdf23cb

coolbert.

Denounced.

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Within context of the supposed agreement to allow unimpeded sailings of commercial vessels Black Sea this is a set-back?

Just when you think there might be some light showing in the tunnel but not necessarily at the end of the tunnel something like this occurs?

"Russia says missiles sank Ukrainian warship in Odessa port strikes"

Digital Journal ^ | July 24, 2022 | Frankie Taggart the tip from Freeper.

"Russia said Sunday that its missile barrage on a Ukrainian port key to a freshly-inked grain export deal had targeted military infrastructure at the facility, after the attack sparked an outcry from Ukraine and its allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced Saturday’s strike on the Odessa port — that came just one day after the warring sides struck a deal to resume exports blocked by the conflict"

Military infrastructure the port of Odessa obviously valid military targets. Commercial vessels in the same harbor obviously not legitimate targets. Especially commercial shipping as carrying exported grain vital to the world food supply. Shipments as needed to forestall global hunger and famine.

IF ANYTHING THIS DEMONSTRATES A LACK OF GOODWILL AND VERY POOR FORM ON THE PART OF RUSSIAN SORELY LACKING AT A CRITICAL MOMENT!

Russians generally thought and perceived to be subtle but lacking in finesse?

coolbert.

Boomerang.

This is coolbert:

Just when I thought maybe there was some hope of a truce and a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine Conflict we have this.

From DEBKAfile Jul 23, 2022 and thanks to same.

"Zelensky rules out truce without recovering lost lands"

"A ceasefire with Russia without reclaiming territory lost to Russia would only prolong the war and allow Russia to rearm, said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. He spoke on Friday after Ukraine and Russia signed a deal to restart grain exports through the Black Sea ports. 'Diplomatic concessions to Moscow might stabilize the markets somewhat but would only provide a temporary respite and boomerang in the future,' Zelensky stressed."

Does not sound good to me. After five full months of fighting [has it been that long now!] I might have thought the warring parties for the greater good of all might have declared a truce, troops holding position in place, negotiations to begin with a step-by-step resolution to the Conflict. As it was with the Winter War of 1940 so it was going to be with the Ukrainian Conflict of 2022? All bets off the  table as they say now. This pronouncement of Zelensky seems to suggest so.

coolbert.

Knight.

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Ritter = knight. CV = curriculum vitae (English: , Latin for "course of life"). 

Extract from a Sputnik interview with with the American military analyst Scott Ritter. Sputnik of course Russian controlled [?] Internet media outlet.

Cost of doing business for the NATO powers the Ukraine Conflict unsustainable? Expenditures of cash and war stockpiles of munitions too great?

"US Military Analyst: West Can't Afford Ukraine Spending, Will Run Out of Ammo to Send to Kiev"

All thanks here to the Russian controlled [?] media outlet "Sputnik News | 21 July 22.

"As Russia continues its special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine, the West is sending billions of dollars on aid, weapons, and equipment for Kiev."

"Scott Ritter, a military analyst and former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, offers his views on the West's motivation to provide continued financial and military assistance to Ukraine, the reasons why the US and EU are choosing to fuel the hostilities instead of encouraging Kiev to negotiate, and reflects on how long Ukraine's beneficiaries in the West will be able to afford such expenses." [Read the CV of Scott Ritter as to his expertise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Ritter.]

[....]

Sputnik: Can the West collectively really afford such spending now, at a time of harsh polarization and soaring prices?

Scott Ritter: No, they can't afford it. And we have some nations that are starting to realize this. The German defense minister, who is very hawkish against Russia, has acknowledged that Germany simply has no more weapons to give and they're not in a position to build new weapons. They're worrying about other economic realities. The same holds true with the United States.

Comments:

# 1 Weapons wartime stockpiles being depleted at an alarming rate. The NATO powers going to find themselves [if they have not already found themselves] in a state of less-than-preparedness for a general war.

# 2 Going to TAKE TIME for assembly lines to dramatically ramp-up production. In the case of Stinger missiles even redesign of entire assemblies will be needed? 

#3 The MAJOR European member of NATO such as France, Germany, Italy have a demonstrable hesitancy to budget and spend for minimal defense requirements the NATO alliance. That welfare-state is in conflict with military spending needs. Going to be unpopular with the voting electorate.

coolbert.

SADARM 2.0.

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Copperhead no, SADARM 2.0 si!

Precision guided munition long-range anti-tank artillery round. Thanks to the article from the Internet web site Strategy Page.

"Air Weapons: SADARM 2.0 In Ukraine"

"SADARM 2.0 Another Cold War era weapon (SADARM) has shown up in Ukraine, doing what it was designed for; destroy Russian tanks."

See the You Tube video SADARM:

"155 BONUS is a 155 mm artillery cluster round, developed in cooperation between Bofors of Sweden and Nexter of France, designed for a long range, indirect fire top attack role against armored vehicles. The BONUS base bleed carrier shell contains two submunitions, which descend over the battlefield on winglets and attack hardened targets with explosively formed penetrator warheads."

"Two NATO members (Germany and Sweden) manufacture 155mm artillery shells carrying two each Sense and Destroy Armor Munitions. Originally called SADARM munitions by its American developer (Textron) it had completed development when the Cold War suddenly ended in 1991. SADARM was not as effective as expected and the 155mm version was canceled in 2001. 

American Copperhead artillery fired anti-tank round laser guided from previous decades ineffective. Modern versions of SADARM not so.

"Meanwhile the U.S. Army noticed the success of an improved German SADARM shell called SMART as well as the similar Swedish Bonus. Both entered service in 2000 and both were successful as 'SADARM 2.0'. The U.S. Army began ordering BONUS shells in 2018 and ordered more in 2020."

ANY 155 MM ARTILLERY PIECE THE NATO INVENTORY CAN FIRE THIS ROUND? SEEMS SO AND ALL THE BETTER FOR IT TOO!

coolbert.

Kolbasna.

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"'the largest munitions depot' . . .  'Of course, for the Ukrainian army which is right now totally starved of missiles, bullets and weapons, getting hold of these supplies would be extremely helpful, but this would be sour grapes'" - Andrey Kartapolov Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee.

21 JUL 22.

The Second Front the Ukraine Conflict. Moldova and Transnistria?

"West highly interested in opening second front in Transnistria, says Russian MP"

Thanks to the Russian controlled [?] Internet media outlet TASS.

"MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. Western countries are extremely interested in opening a second front in Transnistria, thinking that this will take pressure off of Ukraine’s armed forces, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov said on Thursday."

"The West, as we understand, in the current situation is highly interested in opening this second front. This is related to their idea that, if this front opens, Russia will be forced to redeploy some of its means in the direction of Transnistria, thus alleviating pressure from the Ukrainian army in Ukraine’s south-east and east," the lawmaker said during a roundtable discussion on Russia’s peacekeeping operation in Transnistria at the Federation Council.

That Russian army depot Transistria possessing enough armaments to equip a conventional Soviet era combined arms army. Such an army consisting of three infantry divisions + one tank division. A lot military bang stuff that Russian guarded depot.

See previous blog entries as germane the weapons depot:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/rgd-5.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/04/dneister.html

coolbert.

Exports.

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Good news item apparently the Ukraine Conflict! World famine with catastrophe of an apocalyptic nature averted! Let us hope so!

Merchant vessels exporting grain from the Ukraine to all parts of the world will now be able to sail without impediment?

From several sources and thanks to all.

1. "Kiev to remove naval mines blocking grain exports – NYT — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union"

"UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres says Kiev has agreed to remove 'only a few' of the mines, while having the Navy and Coast Guard steer grain ships to international waters, the New York Times reported on Friday, citing three government sources."

ONLY A FEW? OH, I AM GLAD IT IS ONLY A FEW!

"Wheat shipments from Ukraine, a major exporter, were disrupted after Russia launched its military operation in the neighboring country in late February. Both sides blame each other for hampering the exports."

2. "Ukraine and Russia sign deal to allow grain exports from blockaded Black Sea ports amid growing fears of global food catastrophe"

From yahoo.com the story by Katie Anthony, John Haltiwanger | July 22, 2022.

"Ukraine and Russia sign deal to allow grain exports from blockaded Black Sea ports amid growing fears of global food catastrophe:

"Russia and Ukraine came to an agreement to allow grain exports from blockaded Black Sea ports."

"The deal is aimed to help avoid a 'food shortage catastrophe.'"

Perhaps also there will be further discussion that can lead to a truce and a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine Conflict?

One small gesture can go a long way?

coolbert.

ZNPP II.

This is coolbert:

"What I have heard from nuclear safety specialists who are present at the station, they say that the coolant system is, unfortunately, the weakest point. That is why, it is highly likely that the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis targeted the reactor coolant system as a vital point, which could lead to a technological disaster,"

HOT OFF THE PRESSES THE TIP FROM JAX.

Within context of a most recent blog entry the ZNNP under attack Ukrainian combat drones?

First from Russian controlled [?] media outlet Sputnik and then from TASS.

1. "Moscow on Ukraine Drone Attack on NPP: Kiev Tries to Provoke Nuclear Catastrophe in Europe"

Sputnik International | 21.07.2022.

"MOSCOW (Sputnik) - Kiev is attempting to provoke a nuclear catastrophe in Europe, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday, commenting on the Ukrainian drone attack on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (ZNPP)."

KAMIKAZE DRONES COMBAT UAV USED IN THE ATTACK AS ALLEGED.

"The diplomat [Maria Zakharova] recalled that on Monday Ukrainians attacked the territory of the NPP near facilities critical to the plant's safety with a drone. On Wednesday, Ukrainian drones targeted the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant four times. The NPP's reactor was not damaged in the attack."

2. "Kiev’s drone strike targeted Zaporozhye NPP reactor coolant system, official says"

21 JULY.

"Eleven staffers of the NPP were wounded in the drone attack, with four of them in severe condition"

"MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. The Kiev regime sought to hit the reactor coolant system at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in its attack by kamikaze drones, Head of the Zaporozhye Region Military-Civilian Administration Yevgeny Balitsky told the Rossiya-24 TV Channel on Thursday."

Destroy the reactor coolant system ZNPP with reactor melt-down and you will have a release of radioactivity of mind-bobbling, apocalyptic, dooms-day end times proportions from which the Ukraine will NEVER recover in totality.

Russian controlled [?] media in these cases cannot be trustworthy? "It is not that I don't believe this, it is that I don't want to believe this?"

coolbert.

Effectively.

This is coolbert:

"'Advances are measured in literally hundreds of meters [yards]" - Gen. Mark Milley.

Pronouncements the Ukraine Conflict the American general officer chairman the Joint chiefs of Staff General Milley.

From yahoo.com the story by Jake Epstein, John Haltiwanger July 20, 2022.

"Russia has only gained 'maybe 6 to 10 miles' [ten to sixteen kilometers] of territory since war pivoted to eastern Ukraine, top US general says"

"The top US general said Russia has only gained a few miles [kilometers] of territory in eastern Ukraine."

He [Milley] said fighting in the Donbas region is "very intense" with "a lot of violence."

MAYBE THE GENERAL CAN NAME A WAR WHERE THERE WAS NOT FIGHTING "VERY INTENSE WITH "A LOT OF VIOLENCE".

"Russian forces have only gained a few miles [kilometers] of territory since the war pivoted to eastern Ukraine, the top US general said — highlighting how much the five-month-long campaign has turned into a slow and bloody grind."

"Speaking during a press conference at the Pentagon on Wednesday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said Ukraine has 'fought the Russians very effectively' and over the last few months, 'Russian advances have amounted to maybe six to 10 miles [ten to sixteen kilometers] — something of that range.'"

A "slow and blood grind" as very reminiscent of the Great War? The BIG PUSH it was called. An artillery bombardment of of stupendous "intensity and violence" followed by an infantry assault across no-man's land by enormous numbers of troops massed. Inevitable victory perhaps even done in a casual manner the desired result. Did not happen then and is not happening now. During WW1 "advancements" sometimes at a great cost in casualties measured in mere miles [kilometers] and in some locales in hundreds of yards [meters] only!

"In the summer of 1916 an idea called the Big Push was thought of. This was to happen at a place on the Front called Somme. The Generals thought that by shelling the Germans non-stop for days and nights their defenses would be weakened. Then the British soldiers would be able to take over their trenches in a big attack."

The Somme and Verdun WW1, Donbass the Ukraine Conflict? You the devoted reader to the blog decide for yourselves.

coolbert.

Shields.

This is coolbert:

Largest nuclear power plant in the world with six working reactors threatened in a manner that might result in catastrophic and apocalyptic melt-down with tens of thousand of years of desolation from radioactive release a consequence?

"The occupiers [Russians] have brought military equipment and armaments into the engine room of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Energoatom"

From "UKRAINSKA PRAVDA" – 21 JULY 2022 the tip courtesy yahoo.com.

Russians using a nuclear power plant as a "shield" to war off Ukrainian attack? A war crime?

"The occupiers [Russians] have brought at least 14 pieces of heavy military equipment with ammunition loads, armaments and explosives into the engine room of the 1st power unit of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)."

Quote: "The whole arsenal of heavy military equipment that had been brought into the engine room with all its ammunition is now located near the equipment that operates the work of the turbo generator. That is, the military equipment is located in close proximity to the main oil tank which contains easily flammable oil that cools down the steam turbine. There is also explosive hydrogen there used for cooling down the generator"

Th use of human shields is a VIOLATION of the laws of land warfare. To what extent shielding weapons systems and/or the ammunition for same in an IMMENSELY critical facility as a nuclear power plant ALSO can be deemed as a VIOLATION of the laws of land warfare?

Of this I am not sure. And how RELIABLE in Ukrainian Truth in such matters?

coolbert.

Scholz.

This is coolbert:

"...the condition of our Bundeswehr and civilian defense structures, but also our excessive dependence on Russian energy suggest that we felt a false sense of security after the end of the Cold War. Politics, business and large parts of our society were only too happy to draw far-reaching consequences from the dictum of a former German defense minister, according to which Germany was only surrounded by friends. That was a mistake." - Chancellor Olaf Scholz. German Social Democratic Party [SDP].

Mistakes were made. Now for the remedy.

Some observations of Commander Salamander the German conundrum vis-a-vis the Ukraine Conflict.

"SDP Becomes the Salamander Democratic Party?"

July 19, 2022

"Well before Trump was even a Republican, here and other places in the natsec [national security] arena warned Germany ... hell ... begged Germany to step up."

"She [Germany] needed to take her place on the stage as a responsible partner in the security of Europe - a full partner in the West. We tried to tell her [Germany] she needed to spend her fair share, to make the alliance stronger ... but she [Germany] always seemed to want to do just the bare minimum ... and then less."

Read the entire Salamander blog entry. Highly recommended without qualification or reservation.

And of course the question can be asked where do we go from here. Ability of the Bundeswehr at this moment to conduct sustained and effective conventional military operations I fear greatly limited. Going to take some time to bring the German military up to par. As for the short term got to find a solution or a mitigation for the natural gas crisis and before winter.

coolbert.

Rationally.

This is coolbert:

"Raise the price until the pips squeak. " - Mish.

Freeze to death in dark Germany? Economic fallout from the Ukraine Conflict hardly confined to the shipments of grain and other foodstuffs to world markets.

From the strategic geo-economic blog of Mish Shedlock and thank is to same.

"Germany Takes Putin's Blackmail Threats Seriously, Is a Dirty Deal in the Works?"

Devoted readers to the blog are strongly encouraged to read the entire Mish article. Especially that part about Vlad acting rationally.

"For this story, note that Canada delivered sanctioned parts to aid in the Nordstream 1 natural gas pipeline to Russia."

According to Mish key points and take-away:

* "After Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany pledged to end dependence on Russian oil and natural gas."

* "Putin responded by reducing the flow of natural gas to the EU."

* "Putin is acting rationally in the short term by cutting supply to drive up the price.  He is acting rationally in the long term by simultaneously working on new energy pipelines to China." 

* "There is no means for Germany to meet its current energy demands without Russia."

* "Germany pressured Canada to break its sanctions and send parts to Germany. Don't be surprised if those parts end up in Russia." [turbines for the flow of natural gas through NG pipelines.]

With conclusion and  finality:

"Eurointelligence came to this conclusion: 'Despite official denials, we believe that there is intense pressure within the government for a dirty deal with Putin.'"

coolbert.

Goals.

This is coolbert:

From DEBKAfile and thanks to same. Hot off the presses. Lavrov the Russian Foreign Minister issues yet one more warning.

DNR = Donetsk People's republic. LNR = Luhansk People's Republic.

"Russia broadens territorial goals after Ukraine army gets long-range US arms"

 Jul 20, 2022.

“'Russia’s geographic goals in Ukraine have changed,' said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavorv at a news conference on Wednesday, July 20. 'Now [our] geography is different. It is not only the DNR and LNR, it is also the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhia region and a number of other territories,' he said and explained that this change was due to 'weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory and the territory of those [eastern Ukrainian] republics that have announced their independence.'  FM Lavrov added: 'If Western countries supply long-range weapons to Ukraine, [these goals] will move even further.'”

FORGET MERELY THE DONBASS REGION! THE RUSSIAN ALSO CONCERNED WITH FURTHER OCCUPIED UKRAINIAN TERRITORY! THREAT FROM AMERICAN SUPPLIED HIMARS WEAPON SYSTEM A GRAVE MATTER FROM THE RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE!

And even the most casual observer can reasonably ask the question: "what exactly where the Russian goals and objectives from 24 Feb. onward."

I can reasonably suggest the patented answer would be either: 1. Maximalist. 2. Minimalist. With regard to the former a complete and 100 % replacement of the Ukrainian government with a puppet regime in total compliance with all edicts and dictates as issued by Moscow. Maybe even annexation into the Russian Federation. With regard to the latter the Donbass area militarily secured 100 % with some additional territorial gain, complete subjugation of the Donbass to Moscow rule, and eventual annexation into the Russian Federation.

Yankee HIMARS indeed must be causing worrisome damage to the Russian. If not so they would not have mentioned the "long-range" weapons so bluntly.

coolbert.

Johnny.

This is coolbert:

American military good news story Africa!

"Fort Bragg soldiers help rescue injured passengers of African plane crash"

From "The Fayetteville Observer" the story by Rachael Riley, July 19, 2022.

Training exercise Somalia becomes much more! A plane crash Somalia providing a "real-world application" with American military personnel Johnny-on-the-spot!

"Johnny-on-the-spot: a person who is on hand and ready to perform a service or respond to an emergency"

"SOMALIA —  A medical training exercise shifted into real-world application Monday for Fort Bragg soldiers as a passenger airplane crashed in front of them Monday in Mogadishu, Somalia, according to an Army news release."

[....]

"The commandos [Somali] and Fort Bragg soldiers rushed into action climbing a razor-wire fence to reach the plane, which skidded to a halt upside down just meters [yards] from their training location, according to the news release."

"As the Danab commandos [Somali] rushed toward the aircraft to pull injured passengers, Fort Bragg soldiers Sgt. 1st Class Caleb Vanvoorhis, Staff Sgt. JoAnna Baxter and Staff Sgt. Taylor Palmer established a triage area and helped local emergency responders evacuate 16 injured passengers to nearby medical facilities."

American military personnel as belonging to the 2nd Security Force Assistance Brigade headquartered Fort Bragg. And thanks to all and good job!

coolbert.

Monsters.

This is coolbert:

“'And we see: the cruelty and barbarity with which the military personnel of Ukraine behave, the crimes that they commit against the civilian population, those monstrous crimes that they commit against prisoners of war, confirm that this system for the control and creation of a cruel murder machine was implemented under the management of the United States,' . . . 'And those performance enhancing drugs that they are still given in order to completely neutralize the last traces of human consciousness and turn them into the most cruel and deadly monsters also confirm this,'” - Irina Yarovaya, deputy chair of the State Duma [Russian parliament].

Ukrainian super-human soldiers with enhanced physical and maybe mental faculties: "faster than a speeding bullet! More powerful than a locomotive! Able to leap tall buildings in a single bound!"

All a result of secret American bio-laboratories located in the Ukraine??

"Russia Says It’s Losing Because Ukraine Has Experimental Mutant Troops Created in Secret Biolabs"

As seen at "The Daily Beast" the story by Allison Quinn July 19, 2022.

"Nearly five months into its senseless war against Ukraine, Russia has concocted a wild new explanation for why the Kremlin’s plans for a quick takeover fell apart so spectacularly—because Ukrainian troops were turned into superhuman killing machines during 'secret experiments' in American-run biolabs, of course."

[....]

"Testing of Ukrainian POWs’ blood, they claimed, uncovered 'a range of diseases' that suggest they were secretly experimented on 'for military purposes.'”

Personally I might think enhancement as meaning drugs commonly known as of the "speed" variety and nothing more than that. Mutations of the basic human physiology mainly if not fully an idea confined to the world of science-fiction.

coolbert.

Sizzler.

This is coolbert:

Cruise missile DEFENSE the American homeland. Russian cruise missile threat as demonstrated during the Ukraine Conflict now seen as a real possible for attack on North America for which little if any warning is possible.

NORAD some big bucks on-the-way? North American Air Defense rocks.

From yahoo.com the story by Jen Judson July 18, 2022.

"Pentagon plan for homeland cruise missile defense taking shape"

"WASHINGTON — The Pentagon’s plan to defend the U.S. homeland from cruise missiles is starting to take shape after a prolonged period of development because until recently, the threat was perceived as a more distant regional one, a senior Air Force official said."

[....]

"Land-attack cruise missiles can be launched from the air, ground or sea and because they fly at low altitudes under powered flight, it is difficult for radars to detect them."

"Ballistic missiles can be detected much earlier, which allows more time to detect, track, decide and act. For cruise missiles, decision makers may have only a couple of minutes and salvos of cruise missiles can attack from different directions, complicating the approach to defeating the threat."

First and foremost I am thinking of the Russian cruise missile 3M-54_Kalibr [NATO code name Sizzler] which has a range in about 2,000 kilometers [excess of a thousand miles], warhead conventional high-explosive or thermonuclear.

Already SIZZLER combat tested from submarines in several conflicts and found to be highly effective.

Tethered balloons for radar-station posts along the American coastlines will now have to proliferate in numbers before seen. Already used to guard against low-flying conventional aircraft smuggling drugs across the border from Mexico. Now the mission to be looking for cruise missiles?

coolbert.

Related.

 This is coolbert:

"'this is not related to Ukraine or Russia.'” 

Is not related to the Ukraine Conflict. So we are told. More on  the crash of a Ukrainian An-12 transport plane as was the topic of a most recent blog entry.

From www.rt.com/news 17 Jul, 2022.

"Ukrainian plane loaded with mines crashes in Greece"

"The cargo aircraft was carrying Serbian-made munitions to Bangladesh when it crashed, killing everyone on board"

"A Ukrainian cargo plane loaded with 11.5 tons of Serbian-made munitions crashed in Kavala in northern Greece en route to Bangladesh on Sunday, Serbian authorities have confirmed."

"The Antonov An-12 plane, operated by Ukrainian airline Meridian, had reported engine trouble and requested an emergency landing not long before witnesses say it exploded in a corn field outside the city at around midnight local time."

A Ukrainian military transport carrying landmines to Bangladesh? During a time of great peril to the nation I might have thought the Ukrainian could not spare a single military aircraft for anything other than a war-connected mission.

coolbert.

Topographics.

 This is coolbert:

More Russian missteps the Ukraine Conflict?

"Russians invaded Ukraine with maps from 1969 The Security Service of Ukraine"

From UKRAINSKA PRAVDA – 18 JULY 2022. [Ukrainian Truth]

Source: Security Service of Ukraine on Telegram:

"The Security Service of Ukraine has established that part of the Russian command in February was guided by topographical maps of Ukraine from the last century."

"Details: The documents were seized on the spot in the districts of Kharkiv Oblast temporarily occupied by the Russians. In particular, the maps of the motorized rifle battalion of the 138th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade had not been updated for at least 53 years (since 1969)."

Need I say that in a fifty-three year period the topography of the landscape in some areas has changed markedly so!

HEY! I thought the Soviet/Russian military map-making skills were without peer. An attention to detail profound!

coolbert.

Cezve.

This is coolbert:

To war with coffee! The Ukrainian Conflict.

Stimulation for sentries and those on guard duty and having been deprived of sleep!

"The High-Octane Coffee Fueling Ukraine’s Front Line Forces"

From atlasobscurea.com the article by KRIS PARKER JULY 7, 2022.

"The bitter, strong 'Ukrainer' provides caffeine and a moment of calm."

[....] 

"Granovskiy is one of Ukraine’s leading experts of the cezve, or ibrik, brewing method. Commonly called 'Turkish' or 'Eastern' coffee, the technique utilizes a long-handled pot, which is called a cezve, to brew finely ground coffee beans in water over a flame without a filter. The grounds are left in the cup when served, and the result is a strong cup of coffee. The brewing method is popular throughout regions of the former Ottoman Empire and its periphery."

"Turkish coffee being poured from a copper cezve. A cezve . . . is a small long-handled pot with a pouring lip designed specifically to make Turkish coffee. It is traditionally made of brass or copper, occasionally also silver or gold. In more recent times cezveler are also made from stainless steel, aluminum, or ceramics."

YES indeed. Coffee brewed in this manner was a favorite of the Janissary soldier of the Ottoman Empire. Stay awake and alert while on sentry duty and you will not lose your head or have your throat cut.

coolbert.

200th Motorized.

This is coolbert:

Comb-outs? Scrapping the bottom of the Russian barrel? Russian military personnel being formed into combat units consisting of troops whose prior training and experience would be classified in the American manner as combat support and combat service support. Several weeks of brisk infantry training and off to the front and engage in battle?

The use of "comb-out" manpower a quite common practice with the German during the latter stages of the Second World War. Now the Ukraine conflict? Let us clarify too that comb-outs with good leadership can be effective if used in a discrete and measured maner.

"200th Motorized Rifle Brigade sends mixed volunteer battalion to Ukraine war"

"A new ad-hoc battalion currently training in the Pechenga valley near Russia's border with Norway consists of reservists, volunteers, soldiers from coastal defense units, military policemen and navy crew members."

"ad hoc: adv. - For the specific purpose, case, or situation at hand and for no other"

By Thomas Nilsen of Independent Barents Observer July 04, 2022.

"More than four months of war and thousands are killed. Every week, new Russian soldiers are sent to the front. Some have very little combat training. Now, the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, one of the two Russian Arctic warfare brigades, has recruited more men with very mixed military experiences."

The 200th Motorized has already sent several battalions of combat infantry to the Ukraine Conflict with much less than stellar result? Does not give you much confidence.

"Several battalion groups with the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade fought in the early stages of the Ukraine war, notably with big losses."

Does not sound good is my instantaneous and intuitive reaction! The Russian preparing for the war long-haul now? Arctic troops their skill at winter warfare undeniable.

coolbert.

Gazprom NG.

This is coolbert:

Under normal circumstances, depriving a nation of a basic element it needs for survival is AN ACT of WAR!

Yet one more instance from the Ukraine Conflict a declaration of force majeure.

Contracts not able to be fulfilled by the supplier as a result of unforeseen circumstances.

Russians NOT going able to provide western Europe with natural gas as necessary for a normal way of  life to be led. Only Germany today? The rest of western Europe tomorrow?

"Exclusive: Russia's Gazprom declares force majeure on some gas supplies to Europe"

From Reuters ^ | 7-18-22 | Julia Payne the tip via Freeper.

"Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer, according to the letter from Gazprom dated July 14 and seen by Reuters on Monday. The letter said Gazprom, which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, could not fulfil its supply obligations owing to 'extraordinary' circumstances outside its control. It said the force majeure measure, a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control, was effective from deliveries starting from June 14."

Further from the Internet web site "Zero Hedge" on the same topic:

"Gazprom Reportedly Declares Force Majeure, Will Halt Gas Flows To Germany Indefinitely"

Keypoints as take-away:

* "GAZPROM SENT FORCE MAJEURE NOTICE TO AT LEAST 3 BUYERS"

* "GAZPROM FORCE MAJEURE NOTICE APPLIES TO FLOWS FROM JUNE 14

* "UNIPER SAYS IT HAS RECEIVED LETTER FROM GAZPROM EXPORT IN WHICH COMPANY RETROACTIVELY CLAIMS FORCE MAJEURE FOR PAST AND CURRENT SHORTFALLS IN GAS DELIVERIES"

* "UNIPER: WE CONSIDER THIS TO BE UNJUSTIFIED AND HAVE FORMALLY REJECTED FORCE MAJEURE CLAIM"

Gonna be cold in Germany this winter? Either cold or drastically increased price for heating with natural gas. USA will send LNG just-in-time? A Berlin Airlift this time by sea?

coolbert.

An-12

This is coolbert:

From DEBKAfile and thanks to same. 

Of course you can easily understand this story is of immediate interest to me.

Some answers are due here but don't expect to get them?

"Ukraine cargo plane that crashed over Greece carried 'dangerous materials'"

Jul 17, 2022

"According to Greek state TV, experts will use a drone to approach the crash site of a Ukraine-operated aircraft after two firefighters were hospitalized with breathing issues from toxic fumes. The Ukrainian Antonov An-12 cargo aircraft crashed Saturday night near Pleochori village in northern Greece. Greek media said the plane was carrying 12 tonnes [thirteen English tons] of dangerous materials, mostly explosives, and eight people were believed to be on board. People living in a 2km [three-quarter of a mile] radius were told to stay home, shut their windows and wear masks."

As reported by other media: "The plane was on a commercial transport flight from Serbia to Jordan . . . a 'dangerous cargo' had been on board the An-12 aircraft, owned by Ukrainian cargo operator Meridian, during a commercial flight with the route Serbia-Jordan-Bangladesh"

I seriously doubt we will hear details even with time. Maybe nothing out of the ordinary here. But you cannot be faulted for suspicions you may have. Surely that is so!

coolbert.

Medvedev.

This is coolbert:

YET ONE MORE dreadful and frightening warning from the Russian. Like I said before, too many red-lines and too many warnings. Something going to happen sooner or later.

"Russia's Medvedev: Attack on Crimea will ignite 'Judgement Day' response"

From Reuters and thanks to same.

Judgement Day as meaning the use of atomic weapons? That is what I fear.

"MOSCOW, July 17 (Reuters) - The refusal of Ukraine and Western powers to recognize Moscow's control of Crimea poses a 'systemic threat' for Russia and any outside attack on the region will prompt a 'Judgment Day' response, former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday."

"Russia annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 after a pro-Moscow president in Kyiv was toppled amid mass street protests. Moscow then also backed pro-Russian armed separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine."

Comments:

* Threat as what Medvedev has in mind an attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge?

* Threat as what Medvedev has in mind a Ukrainian attack on Crimean targets using by American-supplied HIMARS rocket artillery?

THREATS repeated over and over without consequential action become meaningless over a period of time. Surely the Russian is aware of this? At some point the Russian will be compelled to act.

PUSH will become more than a SHOVE? I hope not.

coolbert.

Turbulence.

This is coolbert:

"Looked for cannot be seen. Listened for cannot be heard. Felt for cannot be touched."

Hypersonics your day is over? Fundamentals of hypersonic missile countermeasures have been studied,  evaluated and found to be feasible? Antidote to the hypersonics is available and cheap both? Off-the-shelf solutions can do! Missiles as described for which there is no KNOWN defense there is  indeed a DEFENSE!

Sounds too good to be true!

From the archive of "Foreign Policy" the article by Jack Detsch FEBRUARY 7, 2022.

"The Pentagon Wants to Ruin China’s ‘Sputnik Moment’"

"Microwaves and turbulent air could kill China’s hypersonic missiles on the cheap."

Russia's hypersonic missiles too I would assume in peril!

"Stop if you’ve heard this: China and Russia’s nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons of the future are faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a ballistic missile, and able to evade the United States’ Earth-based missile defense sensors in a single bound."

"But the stress of traveling at more than five times the speed of sound (the going tempo for hypersonics) gives them a higher risk of failure: Hypersonic missiles may have to cut through turbulent air and searing 4,000-degree heat, all while losing energy by making maneuvers during the flight."

"That makes the margin for error pretty small; one unexpected air particle could damage the airframe. Experts think that bumpy ride could give the U.S. Defense Department a better chance to shoot down Beijing and Moscow’s superweapons—which have leaped ahead of the Pentagon’s arsenal—on the cheap."

All you need is: "unwelcome metallic particles in the direction of a rock-skipping hypersonic missile or using microwave beams"??

Again, sounds too good to be true!

coolbert.

Yazici.

This is coolbert:

Yet one more instance of a senior military man of flag rank [general or admiral] taking a reduction in rank solely for the privilege of commanding troops in combat.

Tahsin Yazıcı. Commander of the Turkish Brigade the Korean War.

"He commanded the Turkish Brigade during the Korean War. His brigade saved Americans in Battle of Kunuri. Though it was initially placed as a reserve for the U.S. 8th Army, the collapse of the front in the face of massive Chinese attacks on 26 November 1950 meant that it soon found itself in the thick of battle."

General Yazici a one-star general officer accepting quite willingly a reduction in rank to that of Colonel in command of a brigade. General Yazici a veteran of Gallipoli during the Great War [WW1].

Hardly can we forget too and worth a mention the Frenchman Ralph Monclar. Commanded the French battalion during the Korean War. General Monclar taking a marked reduction in rank from three-star general to that of Lieutenant Colonel again for the purpose and privilege of commanding a battalion in Coree'.

"Raoul Charles Magrin-Vernerey, who in World War II shortened his name to Ralph Monclar"

"Their leader [French battalion in Korea] was a battle-scarred veteran of the Legion who led them in battle wearing his monocle, a beret, a bright red scarf–and using a cane to compensate for his limp. Sixty-year-old Raoul Monclar, as he called himself, had given up his three-star general’s rank and his true name of Magrin-Venery and had reverted to the rank of lieutenant colonel, since general was too high a rank for a battalion"

General Monclar wounded seven times from combat the Great War and being 90 % disabled. Fought with the Free French in World War Two and finally in Korea.

Cane when carried for disability and additionally symbolic of the sword that was wielded by the military knight and gentleman-at-arms of yore!

These men we can respect for their willingness to enter the fray without regard to their senior position. Admirable!

coolbert.

 

Grumble SSM

This is coolbert:

From the Internet web site Strategy Page as reported surprising [?] use by the Russian during the Ukraine Conflict air defense missiles being used in the GROUND ATTACK mode.

Paragraph as extracted in entirety.

"Ukraine claims Russia is using 1.8-ton S300 (SA-10) SAM (surface to air missiles) as SSMs (surface to surface missiles)."

July 14, 2022.

Read all details of the S-300 SA-10 "Grumble" surface to air missile.

"The allegation was based on Belarus revealing that they had recently tested S300s acting as SSMs. The S300 was known to have been designed with SSM capability. That means one of launch options includes SSM mode. There are two major limitations to using a SAM as an SSM. One is accuracy at longer ranges. Russian SAMs are guided to the target using a ground-based targeting radar that guides the S300 to aerial targets up to 150 kilometers [ninety-three miles] away. SAMs are programmed to self-destruct if they miss their target so that the missile and its small (100-200 kg) warhead does not land on friendly territory. Used as an SSM the self-destruct is disabled and the guidance system aims the missile at a ground location, but less accurately than against aerial targets. Russia has apparently modified the SSM option to include a GPS option that directs the SAM to a specific ground location. The GPS option works, but not as accurately as expected. Ukraine believes that the Russians are running out of SSM missiles and using S300s as SSMs because there is not much need for their SAM capabilities, especially with the more recent and capable S400 now available."

Comments:

* Undeniably the Grumble can carry an impressive amount of bang stuff a considerable distance to a target. About three-hundred thirty pounds of explosive in the warhead.

* Guidance to the target both by radar [fire control?] and GPS. So the weapon can be accurate.

* Obviously note the Russia thought through the process of having the missile with an on-call SSM capability. This is not an ad hoc measure!

* The Russian is running low of conventional tactical ballistic missiles of the Tochka or Iskander variety? Grumble as a very plausible alternative?

* American SAM of the Cold War era Nike-Hercules also having a SSM capability. Also radar guided to a ground target. The South Koreans their first indigenous SSM a reverse engineered version of the Nike-Hercules.

* And yes the Ukrainian air force threat deemed as not so significant that Grumble can be spared for the alternative ground-attack mode.

coolbert.

Sanctions.

This is coolbert:

By GOD we are saved. Global thermonuclear war averted. Some damn fool thing in Lithuania setting off a conflagration no longer a threat.

Railroad si, roads no!

From zerohedge.com the article by BY TYLER DURDEN JUL 14, 2022.

"Lithuania To Allow Rail Transit Of Russian Goods After EU Reaches Compromise On Kaliningrad"

"It seems that saner minds are prevailing after ratcheting rhetoric coming from Moscow threateningly elevated Lithuania's effective blockade of all overland trade and goods to an 'act of war' by the West... as the European Union is now refusing to back the full extent of Lithuania's sanctions enforcement measures."

MY READING WAS THAT THERE NEVER WAS A TOTAL BLOCKADE OF KALININGRAD. JUST SANCTIONED ITEMS AS PASSING THROUGH LITHUANIA VIA RAILROAD TRANSPORT FORBIDDEN.

"The European Commission issued its legal guidance on the standoff Wednesday, which had over the past month resulted in some one million Russian citizens in the exclave remaining cut off from products brought by rail and road. 'The transit of sanctioned goods by road with Russian operators is not allowed under the EU measures. No such similar prohibition exists for rail transport,' the European Union executive said, specifying that Russian goods should continue to be allowed by train.

"'The Commission underlines the importance of monitoring the two-way trade flows between Russia and Kaliningrad … to ensure that sanctioned goods cannot enter the EU customs territory,' . . .  emphasizing further that the rail exception doesn't apply to weapons or munitions. The ban on transit still exits [sic] for freight brought by road, however."

See from sputniknews.com this article hundreds of Russian trucks their movement stymied moving to and fro Kaliningrad.

"There was the additional caveat to the ruling that EU trade sanctions would not apply as long as Russia's transport volumes do not exceed averages of the last three years . . . It remains that food and humanitarian goods were reportedly never subject to the sanctions, nor was travel of citizens back-and-forth."

Again, blockade of sanctioned items ONLY was the rule for rail transport. NEVER for ordinary items of life as essential to the  survival or well-being of the Russian citizen Kaliningrad. Unlimited amounts of food, medicine, fuel or all sorts could flow unimpeded and never was this denied.

coolbert.