Wednesday, April 26, 2023

STOP!

This is coolbert:

Understand we are not talking about brand new raw recruits. We are talking about highly trained and experienced combat aviators of the OFFICER class.

"EXCLUSIVE: Amid Recruiting Woes, Officers Allege The Army Is Preventing Their Scheduled Discharge"

From https://dailycaller.com | MICHAEL GINSBERG | CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT | April 24, 2023.

"The U.S. Army is changing its terms of service guidelines and denying soldiers scheduled discharges, a letter signed by sixty-one aviation officers alleges."

[....]

"The recruitment and retention failures impact all parts of the military, including its most elite units, multiple news outlets have reported. In an effort to compensate for personnel limitations, the Army is changing its service requirement guidelines for some officers, according to a letter sixty-one aviation officers submitted to members of Congress. The officers assert that by reinterpreting contract language, the Army is preparing to tack on three years of service to the seven or eight years the airmen were initially promised."

You did say you wanted to fly airplanes! Didn't you!!

coolbert.





Turchin.


This is coolbert:

Cossacks? The American army? Cossacks the American Civil War? Cossacks?

YES and indeed! Consider the career of John Turchin, BG, USA.

Thanks for the tip from the Russian controlled [?] Internet media outlet Sputnik.

"Ivan Vasilyevich Turchaninov (Russian: Иван Васильевич Турчанинов); December 24, 1822 – June 18, 1901) better known by his Anglicized name of John Basil Turchin, was a Union Army brigadier general in the American Civil War. He led two critical charges that saved the day at Chickamauga and was among the first to lead soldiers up Missionary Ridge. He was court-martialed for allowing his men to perpetrate the 'Sack of Athens,' and found guilty of all charges, but President Abraham Lincoln promoted him to brigadier general, which invalidated the verdict, as an officer could only be tried by those of equal or greater rank."

Turchin as a Russian with service in the Tsarist Imperial army during the Crimean War. Turchin an able and competent commander during the American Civil War with extensive combat experience in crucial battles.

Turchin might have been personally known to President Lincoln from both men having been pre-war in the employ of the Illinois Central Railroad? Lincoln a corporate lawyer, Turchin a construction engineer.

Turchin with his railroad background was the one who came up with the idea of the military armored train?

Turchin unfortunately his record blemished by atrocity Athens, Alabama?

coolbert.




Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Toponymy.


This is coolbert:

The Century of Shame and unfair treaties! Also to war with street sign.

"toponymy: noun - The place names of a region or language. The study of such place names."

1. "China’s Maps Call Vladivostok ‘Haishenwai’"

"And therein lies the beginning of what could become quite a story."

Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu | The New York Sun | March 25, 2023.

"It has been said that one cannot use an old map to explore a new world. Yet, if one is Communist China, one might be able to edit it to create a new world. Beijing’s recently revised mapping standards seem to suggest it is attempting just that."

[....]

"Beijing maintains that these, and five other, territories were unduly handed to Tsarist Russia in a bout of treaties that saw Moscow strip China of 350,000 square miles [about 900,000 km^2] of land during the nineteenth century. The CCP claims that the new standards then reflect 'China’s actual borders based on historical materials.'”

JUST DON'T ASK ME HOW TO PRONOUNCE IT!

2. "Ukraine bans place names connected to Russia"

From Scot Free.com ^ | April 22, 2023 the tip from Freeper.

"A new law prohibits toponymy related to Russia, its history, culture or personalities. President Vladimir Zelensky has signed legislation eradicating references to Russian history or culture in the names of cities, towns, villages and other geographical locations in Ukraine."

It is reputed that the East Germans had a warehouse full of already printed and ready-to-go street signs to be used during the invasion and occupation of West Germany by communist forces if and when war between NATO and Warsaw Pact nations had occurred. ERADICATE the old order - in with the NEW order!

It is no longer Kurfürstendamm or Unter den Linden comrade! Think rather Karl-Marx-Allee and  Rosa-Luxemburg-Platz comrade!

coolbert.




UJ-22.

This is coolbert:

Destination Moscow! The Ukrainian fights back! Drone incoming!

 "Ukrainian Drones Targeted Moscow"

 From https://southfront.org |  24.04.2023 -

"On April 24, a Ukrainian-made kamikaze drone fell in the Moscow region. It was not intercepted by Russian forces but fell because it ran out of fuel. To defeat its target, the kamikaze drone was loaded with Canadian M112 explosive charges based on US C4 explosives."

"The drone was Ukrainian-made UJ-22 Airborne. It was discovered in the Bogorodsky city district."

RAN OUT OF FUEL? AND THEN JUST CRASHED? WAS NOT SHOT-DOWN!

The UJ-22 can be flown in manual/semi-autonomous/autonomous mode.

See here details of the UJ-22 performance.

Maximum radius of controlled flight, km 100 [60 miles].

Maximum autonomous flight range,   km 800 [480 miles].

"The drone can stay in the air for up to 6 hours in extreme weather. The range of radio communication with the operator is provided at a distance of up to 100 kilometers [ sixty miles]. Control is reportedly carried out in several modes: manual, semi-automatic and automatic. Communication between the control center and the drone is carried out over an encrypted channel. A vehicle with a high level of cross-country ability can be used as a ground control point."

UJ-22 can deliver RPG warheads or 82 mm mortar rounds on target!

UJ-22 for this mission was on semi-autonomous mode of flight with final terminal guidance in the manual mode of operation under the control of behind-enemy-lines Ukrainian saboteurs?

coolbert.





Monday, April 24, 2023

Operator.

This is coolbert:

American mercenary Ukraine! Or operating under legitimate USA auspices?

 It isn't so much that I don't believe it. It is more that I don't want to believe it!

"BREAKING: US Special Forces Operator Tells AFP He's Killing Russians In Ukraine - 'I Stopped Counting At 500'"

https://armedforces.press article by Staff Writer April 15, 2023.

"The White House is running a war in Ukraine without Congressional approval, opposed to the Constitution of the United States."

"At Armed Forces Press we are very close to the American Special Operations community, through past relationships and experience."

"We recently sat down with an American operator who had returned from Ukraine. He told us point blank that he was a killing machine 'in theater', killing Russian soldiers and running sabotage operations behind the front lines in Russian-controlled territory."

[....]

"American forces are involved in Ukraine in a degree much greater than admitted by the Department of Defense and The White House."

More than likely a wannabee operator who can talk a good talk? I might like to think so and even greatly HOPE so!

American special forces operators of whatever service or duty involved in active fighting the Ukraine Conflict from my perspective a most serious issue!

coolbert.




Wreckers.

This is coolbert.

"Wrecking . . . was a crime specified in the criminal code of the Soviet Union in the Stalin era. It is often translated as "sabotage' . . . the meaning of 'wrecking' is closer to 'undermining'."

Back in the days of J. Stalin the response would have been?

"Vladimir Putin 'fires top admiral after he refused to send his sailors from his Pacific fleet to fight in Ukraine war'"

From the Daily Mail ^ | 4/23/2023 | ROHAN GUPTA the tip from Freeper.

"Vladimir Putin has reportedly fired a top admiral because of his refusal to send his sailors to fight in the war against Ukraine. Admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, was suddenly stripped of the role of commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet last week during war games involving nuclear bombers ordered by the Kremlin. Avakyants has been seeking to protect his men from deployment - to prevent them from being cannon fodder"

This Admiral commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet. The Russian having four fleets: Pacific, Black, Baltic, Northern. Each fleet have an organic unit of ground troops, either a regiment or a brigade of Marines. That brigade of Marines, Pacific Fleet, sent to the Ukraine Conflict effectiveness in one engagement alone becoming almost null!

"'Thirty-one armored vehicles of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade from the Russian Pacific Fleet were destroyed during an assault on Vuhledar,'"

According to the Soviet defector Suvorov Russian ground force commanders rated a single regiment of Russian Marines as having a fighting capacity three time that [3X] of a similarly-sized traditional Red Army unit.

And as to the RESPONSE of J. Stalin to a similar refusal, we all intuitively understand what that would have been, don't we!

coolbert.




Sunday, April 23, 2023

Underrated II.


This is coolbert:

Here with a listing without regard to any particular precedence or order those underrated historical military commanders.

Expanding and adding to a previous list of ten underrated military commanders as was the topic of a blog entry from 2017.

Listing only in part extracted from a Professor Al Nofi book review: "Book Review: Masters of Warfare: Fifty Underrated Military Commanders from Classical Antiquity to the Cold War"

--------------------------------------------

1. Blas de Lezo.

2. Bai Qi.

3. Corvinus.

4. Yi Sun-Sin.

5. Almeida.

6. Zizka.

7. al-Walid.

8. Morosini.

9. Gonzalo Fernandez de Cordoba

10. Du Guesclin.

11. Putnik.

12. Heraclius.

13. Doria.

14. Alba

15. Ashoka.

16. Montecuccoli.

Comments:

* al-Walid as mentioned in passing from the previous blog entry the embedded You Tube video 2021.

* See here as was previously posted a mention of Zizka.

* The medieval period samurai General Takeda Shingun deserving more than a mention his name however not even found among the listing?

coolbert.




Saturday, April 22, 2023

H.I.V.


This is coolbert:

Convicts as recruited by the Wagner Group infected with the HIV virus. Not receiving treatment in the Russian penal system. Hoping to be taken prisoner by the Ukrainian with the hope of getting humane and merciful medical care from the Ukrainian.

"‘A Quick Death or a Slow Death’: Prisoners Choose War to Get Lifesaving Drugs"

"An estimated 20 percent of Russia prisoner recruits are H.I.V. positive. To some, the front lines seemed less risky than prisons where they said they were denied effective treatments."

From https://www.nytimes.com/ukraine.html the article by Andrew E. Kramer April 21, 2023.

"Andrew E. Kramer reported from Dnipro, Ukraine, interviewing Russian soldiers from prisoner units in Ukrainian detention centers."

"In Russian prisons, they said they were deprived of effective treatments for their H.I.V. On the battlefield in Ukraine, they were offered hope, with the promise of anti-viral medications if they agreed to fight."

"It was a recruiting pitch that worked for many Russian prisoners."

"About 20 percent of recruits in Russian prisoner units are H.I.V. positive, Ukrainian authorities estimate based on infection rates in captured soldiers. Serving on the front lines seemed less risky than staying in prison, the detainees said in interviews with The New York Times."

HIV and AIDS indeed manageable with the correct regimen of drugs! The Ukrainian able to provide medications necessary? I might well imagine that Wagner PMC prisoner of war low on the order of priorities, the Ukrainian combat medical corps.

coolbert.




Unresolved.

This is coolbert:

UAP/UFO paranormal. As recorded video footage from an American drone.

"Pentagon Video Shows Mysterious Flying Orb, Says 650 UFOs Are Being Tracked"

From the Internet web site "Blazing Cat Fur" and thanks to same.

"The Pentagon has released rare declassified footage of an Unidentified Flying Object (UFO) spotted in the Middle East last year [2022]."

Watch the video for yourself. The military observer of paranormal activity to be more trusted than any other. The disinterested party without agenda and trained in observational techniques.

"The footage, shown before a congressional committee Wednesday as part of a defense update on UFOs (or, as the Pentagon calls them, UAPs – Unexplained Anomalous Phenomena) shows a small, spherical object that appears to shimmer as it quickly zips above houses and empty fields."

Six-hundred fifty of the "orbs" have been observed and are [were] tracked? That does sound to be a large number to me. Much more than mere shadows or optical illusions/camera malfunctions!

Yes, comrade, I fear we are being watched! By whom I am even afraid to ask the question. There is a very simple and reasonable explanation, isn't there?

coolbert.




Meraj-532.

This is coolbert:

Martyrdom Iranian Meraj-532. The latest Iranian kamikaze drone. Launched from the back of a pick-up truck.

"Iran Unveils Car-Launched Suicide Drone, Meraj-532, That Has One-Way Range Of 450 Km [about 270 miles] & Strikes With Deadly Accuracy"

From https://eurasiantimes.com/ article by Sakshi Tiwari | April 10, 2023.

"As kamikaze drones become increasingly instrumental in modern combat, Iran has unveiled another one-way Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) dubbed ‘Meraj-532’ for Iran Revolutionary Guards Ground Forces (IRGC)."



Lift-off! Drone underway using organic power!

"On April 9, a video released by Iran and published on state media showed the unveiling of the Meraj-532 drone by the IRGC. According to publicly available information, the Meraj-532 is a piston-engine drone with a one-way range of 450 kilometers [about 270 miles]."

Almost any pick-up truck [presumably with some sort of apparatus attached to the bed of the truck] can be used as a launcher. Truck drive at a rather high-speed giving a lot of lift to the drone PRIOR to release. No NEED for JATO/RATO assistance.

"JATO (acronym for jet-assisted take-off) is a type of assisted take-off for helping overloaded aircraft into the air by providing additional thrust in the form of small rockets. The term JATO is used interchangeably with the (more specific) term RATO, for rocket-assisted take-off"

Battlefield can be PROLIFERATED with these trucks [with attached launch apparatus] going to be hard to find and destroy!

coolbert.




Friday, April 21, 2023

Friendly.

This is coolbert:

"'Friendly fire - isn't' - Murphy's laws"

Russian warplane accidentally drops bunker-buster bomb on the Russian city of Belgorod.

"​What Fell on Belgorod: Video Shows How the Russian Bunker Busters Work"

From https://en.defence-ua.com | April 21, 2023 | Defense Express.

"Special BetAB-500ShP are designed to destroy airfield runways and fortifications of reinforced concrete"

"After the incident officially called by the Russian ministry of defense as 'extraordinary release of an aircraft munition' with consequent falling of it on the city of Belgorod in Russia, a detailed video from the site appeared. This footage made it easy to identify the exact type of the bomb dropped by the carrier."

Watch the embedded video and see the accompanying images.

"Although we cannot see the munition itself, the way it detonated told a lot. This type of a bomb that made it into the ground and blew up after a while in Belgorod is a special rocket-assisted bunker buster called BetAB-500ShP."

coolbert.





Rush-Bagot.

This is coolbert:

Grave American violations of the Rush–Bagot Treaty? The Great Lakes of North America and border between Canada and the United States a demilitarized zone, military vessels limited both with regard to burden [tonnage] and armaments.

"The Rush–Bagot Treaty or Rush–Bagot Disarmament was a treaty between the United States and Great Britain limiting naval armaments on the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain, following the War of 1812. It was ratified by the United States Senate on April 16, 1818, and was confirmed by Canada, following Confederation in 1867."

"The treaty provided for a large demilitarization of lakes along the international boundary, where many British naval arrangements and forts remained. The treaty stipulated that the United States and British North America could each maintain one military vessel (no more than 100 tons burden) as well as one cannon (no more than eighteen pounds) on Lake Ontario and Lake Champlain. The remaining Great Lakes permitted the United States and British North America to keep two military vessels 'of like burden' on the waters armed with 'like force'."

American gunboat USS Wilmette during the period of the Great War stationed on the Great Lakes. Wilmette of a size and armaments greater than stipulated in the Rush-Bagot treaty of one hundred years earlier. 

USS Wilmette during training exercise actually firing weaponry at a captured German submarine in the aftermath of WW1 some period after hostilities having ended. This was the sinking of UC-97.

"A clause of the armistice treaty required all German combat vessels held by Allied forces to be destroyed before 1 July 1921. All armament, propulsion machinery, and navigation gear were removed from UC-97 before she was towed out into Lake Michigan by USS Hawk (IX-14) for use as a target during the annual summer training of naval reservists living in the Midwestern United States. USS Wilmette fired 18 rounds from a 4 in (10 cm) gun in 15 minutes to sink UC-97 20 nautical miles (37 km) off the coast of Highland Park, Illinois on 7 June 1921."

And yes, the American gunboat IX-29 the converted excursion vessel SS Eastland prior to WW1 capsizing with horrific loss of life the Chicago river.

coolbert.





Thursday, April 20, 2023

Bastion.

This is coolbert:

Crude but effective, cheap and dirty, new wine in an old bottle?

Any devoted and knowledgeable reader to the blog have a handle on this? I personally am unable to determine yea or nay!

The Soviet era KS-19 anti-aircraft artillery weapons system capable of chambering and firing an anti-tank guided-missile of the Bastion family ATGM?

"The Bastion was developed firstly as a relatively cheap missile [ATGM] fired from towed MT-12 100 mm smoothbore anti-tank guns. The 9M117 missile was part of the 3UBK10 round and the whole weapon system was designated 9K116 Kastet. A laser guidance device was seated on a tripod next to the gun."

[....]

"The 100 mm [Bastion] round resembles a normal 100 mm anti-tank round, and is loaded and fired in the same fashion. The round uses a reduced explosive charge to launch the projectile out of the barrel of the gun at around 400 to 500 m/s. After leaving the gun barrel, a small cover falls away from the window on the rear of the missile. The rocket motor ignites 1.5 seconds after firing the missile, and it burns for 6 seconds."

Bastion type ATGM can be fired from the main gun of the T-55 tank and the BMP-3 armored fighting vehicle. A KS-19 too?

Bastion type ATGM the range of the laser-guided missile beyond that of the main gun of Russian main-battle tanks. Ukrainian KS-19 using Bastion when massed in a stop-line defensive posture handily able to prevent a Russian breakthrough offensive in the World War Two classical style. 

coolbert.




Vectors.


This is coolbert:

"Vector: Biology - an insect or other organism that transmits a pathogenic fungus, virus, bacterium, etc."

"Did Canada supply 'infected insects' to U.S. Military during the Korean War?"

Biological warfare Korea the Canadian connection?

Article thanks to www.thecanadafiles.com | Written by: Jeffrey S. Kaye | March 14, 2023.

"It was late April 1952 and the Korean War was nearing its second anniversary with no end in sight. In Canada, newspapers and the Canadian government erupted in fury when it was reported that the Canadian Peace Congress’ chairman implied that Canada may have supplied infected insects to U.S. forces, who were accused of bombing the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) and China with bacteriological or 'germ' weapons."

"Quite famously, the first reports of U.S. germ warfare in 1952 came during the dead of the Korean and Manchurian winter. Critics pointed to pictures the Communists released of insects wiggling on mounds of snow. They made much of the fact that it seemed absurd to think insects could be used as weapons in such a harsh climate."

YES indeed. Insects almost totally so during a period of sub-freezing temperatures either DIE or enter a TORPID state not remaining active. Insects during the winter time a poor VECTOR for bio-warfare agents. 

That allegation made the Canadian military at a secret bio-warfare laboratory by selective breeding of insects could create a cold-weather hardy insect remaining active during the winter.

"Fort Churchill related to experiments with insect cold-hardiness or perhaps the breeding of more cold resistant insects and bacteria to be used in germ warfare during the Korean War?"

The truth is out there but perhaps will never be known with 100 % certainty?

coolbert.




Tempo.

This is coolbert:

Impressions can be deceiving? So is it with the American nuclear submarine fleet?

"Exclusive: Navy Will Spend $200 Billion—Equal to Ukraine's GDP—on Subs It Barely Uses"

From https://www.newsweek.com/ article by WILLIAM M. ARKIN ON 04/19/23.

"The U.S. Navy plans to expand its submarine fleet at a cost of $200 billion, equivalent to the GDP of Ukraine. But as Republicans hotly debate ongoing military aid to Kiev, neither party has questioned the far more costly submarine program—allowing the Navy to conceal a startling fact about America's submarine fleet. The Navy calls its submarines 'the most lethal and capable force.' It is also the 'silent service,' shrouded in secrecy, the nature of its operations closely guarded."

"The American attack submarine force—the 'fighting' submarines—exists in order to pursue enemy submarines and ships, eavesdrop on adversaries and support operations by special forces. Hollywood productions like The Hunt for Red October have created the impression of submarines tracking the enemy while moving noiselessly under the sea, operating stealthily for months on end. The reality is markedly different. The U.S. Navy can deploy barely a quarter of its attack submarine force at any one time, and last year, despite a war raging in Ukraine and China's rise as a global superpower, only 10 percent of its submarines operated stealthily by spending more than 30 days fully submerged"

Devoted readers to the blog are strongly encouraged to read the entire Newsweek article.

I had always thought the U.S. Navy practice of Blue & Gold crew meant a very high tempo of operations. Two month patrol on a war-footing at all times, a return to port, crews rotating at the end of each patrol. But down-time is too excessive for Blue & Gold to mean a whole lot?

Understand fully well the modern submarine the most complex thing made by man. Each patrol results in a lot of work orders, major and minor.

Those much-needed periodic cycles of refurbishment/retrofit NECESSARY and time consuming.

And don't think the Russian or Chinese submarine fleets a whole lot better with regard to down-time and idleness. 

The American public can justifiably ask and should ask if the return on investment is worth the money spent?

coolbert.





Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Rainmaking.

This is coolbert:

"Rainmaking Is Used [was] As Weapon by U.S."

From the archives of the New York times an extract of of S. Hersh article | July 3, 1972.

That extract:

"The weather manipulation in Indochina, which was first tried in South Vietnam in 1963, is the first confirmed use of meteorological warfare. Although it is not prohibited by any international conventions on warfare, artificial rain making has been strenuously opposed by some State Department officials."

THIS WAS POPEYE:

"Operation Sober Popeye . . . was a military cloud-seeding project carried out by the U.S. Air Force during the Vietnam War in 1967–1972. The highly classified program attempted to extend the monsoon season over specific areas of the Ho Chi Minh Trail, in order to disrupt North Vietnamese military supplies by softening road surfaces and causing landslides."

"The chemical weather modification program was conducted from Thailand over Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam and allegedly sponsored by Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and the CIA without the authorization of then Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird, who had categorically denied to Congress that a program for modification of the weather for use as a tactical weapon even existed."

Consider that Popeye implemented without the knowledge of the USA Secretary of Defense!

As to the efficacy of Popeye does anyone have a clue?

coolbert.





Weaknesses.

This is coolbert:

"As the Iraq combat experience shows, they went up in flames. The tank turret was pierced by a 100mm armor-piercing blunt nose projectile fired by a T-55 tank. There were instances when Abrams vehicles were struck by automatic guns of both Bradley and our BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles," - Suvorov.

"Instances are also known when the American tank was destroyed by the first Soviet modifications of T-72 tanks firing old shells 'that were withdrawn from operational use even before the Abrams concept was devised,'" - Suvorov.

"American Abrams tanks vulnerable even to Soviet-era weapons, says expert"

From TASS 26 JAN 2023.

"US President Joe Biden announced on January 25 that Washington would hand over 31 M1 Abrams tanks to the Kiev regime"

"MOSCOW, January 26. /TASS/. American M1 Abrams tanks that Washington has decided to hand over to Kiev as military aid have weaknesses that allowed wiping them out with Soviet weapons, including T-55 tanks, during the conflict in Iraq, armor expert, Candidate of Military Sciences, retired Colonel Sergey Suvorov told TASS on Thursday."

American Abrams tanks as not to ARRIVE in Ukraine until 2024?

I would think too it must be understood that all tank designs are a COMPROMISE of the three factors of: * Firepower, * Protection, * Mobility.

Taking these factors into consideration during the design process results in ALL CASES of a tank that has vulnerabilities in some manner.

Mitigation of tank vulnerability achieved by employing the COMBINED ARMS concept.

Always understood all tanks in one way or another susceptible to attack/damage/destruction by some method or approach.

Single tank on tank combat too the Ukraine Conflict rare? This is mostly an artillery war!

coolbert.




Inspiration.

This is coolbert:

"The future is in Asia. We've got to have a presence in the Pacific to prevent China doing something ridiculous like invading Taiwan," 

Not just east of Suez but east of Singapore?

"UK May Deploy Warship to Indo-Pacific on Permanent Basis"

 From https://sputnikglobe.com | 17 Apr 2023.

"MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The UK government is in talks to place a warship to the Indo-Pacific region for a permanent deployment, British newspaper reported on Monday citing a government source."

"The UK plans to deploy at least one Type-31 frigate, which will become a tipping point after five decades of UK military power's decline east of Suez, the newspaper added."

ONE Inspiration class frigate of a class that yet to have been built, much less capable of sailing half-way around the world.

I doubt a SINGLE warship even of the Royal Navy [RN]  going to intimidate or SCARE the Chinese a whole lot. 

Think this gesture part and parcel of the tripwire force concept of deterrence.

"A tripwire force . . . is a strategic approach in deterrence theory. The tripwire force is a military force smaller than that of a potential adversary, which is designed to signal the defending side's commitment to an armed response to future aggression without triggering a security spiral."

coolbert.




Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Beijing WW2.


This is coolbert:

The Italian military enigma? Asian style.

"COMMAND: ITALY’S FAR EASTERN ARMY AND NAVY FORCES"

By MARK FELTON | 11/23/2016

Italian presence the Pacific Theater WW2? Italians?

As extracted from the Mark Felton Internet article:

"For the Italian military forces stationed on land in China the armistice meant certain internment in Japanese prisoner of war camps. A small mixed army and navy force of 100 men, under the command of a Lt. Cmdr. Baldassarre of the Royal Italian Navy, garrisoned the Beijing radio station, within the Italian concession. Although lightly armed with infantry weapons, Baldassarre was determined to resist a Japanese infantry regiment with approximately 1,000 men supported by artillery and 15 light tanks. Outnumbered 10-to-l the Italians fought for more than 24 hours before surrendering. Afterward, the majority of Italians wanted to continue fighting on the Axis side. The 29 who did not were transported to a Japanese prisoner of war camp in Korea."

This combat action yet one more exception to the Italian military enigma? Italian armed forces during both World Wars their performance seen as SHAMFUL and even SCANDALOUS. The perception of the Italian military during WW2 in particular being that of cowardly troops, inadequate/antique equipment and downright incompetent commanders.

See prior blog entries the Italian soldier during WW2 those exceptions to the enigma:




coolbert.




Refuseniks.

This is coolbert:

“The video camera surveillance system is used in Moscow to determine where conscripts live, organizations where they work report their personal details to military enlistment offices on the Moscow mayor’s orders. Educational institutions help us find out where conscripts study,”

Comrade! Beware! You are being watched!

Russia recruitment and conscription woe the Ukraine Conflict!

Both articles from "Novaya Gazeta" the tips from Freeper.

1. "Russian colonel responsible for draft fined 400,000 rubles [$5,000 USD] for attempting to get washing machine as bribe"

18.April 2023.

"A Moscow military garrison court has fined Colonel Ivan Mertvichshev, who was responsible for overseeing draft procedures, 400,000 rubles (€4,470) for extortion in the form of attempting to obtain a Bosch washing machine worth 72,000 rubles (€800) as a bribe, Kommersant reports"

This Colonel Ivan corrupt and stupid both at the same time! Now going to some military prison.

2. "Moscow’s draft officer: CCTV system used in Russian capital to determine where potential conscripts live"

18th April 2023.

“The video camera surveillance system is used in Moscow to determine where conscripts live, organizations where they work report their personal details to military enlistment offices on the Moscow mayor’s orders. Educational institutions help us find out where conscripts study,”

"The video surveillance system is used in Moscow to ascertain where potential recruits reside, Moscow’s chief military enlistment officer Maxim Loktev told TASS."

"According to him, the key reason why people refuse to show up at their designated military draft offices is because they do not reside at the place they are registered at. This prevents them from receiving draft notices."

See previous blog entries Russian conscription:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/04/dodger.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/03/dodgers.html

coolbert.





Windmills.


This is coolbert:

"Minister of Defense [MoD] of UK does not permit any wind farm located at less than 74 km [about 44 miles] of an air defense radar, unless developers can demonstrate no interferences with the defense radar"

As in England so as in the USA too? Offshore electric power generating windmills "problematic" from the national defense standpoint?

"Pentagon: Offshore Wind Farms May Threaten ‘Military Readiness,’ National Security"

From https://www.breitbart.com the article by FRANCES MARTEL | 18 Apr 2023.

"A Department of Defense assessment of locations proposed to build offshore wind farms on the Atlantic coast found several areas to be 'highly problematic' due to their proximity to U.S. military training sites, Bloomberg reported on Monday, publishing a Pentagon map of the areas in question."

"A Pentagon spokesperson confirmed to Fox News on the same day that the warnings published by Bloomberg were an authentic assessment of proposed areas for offshore wind development, stating that the Defense Department would “continue to work” with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), responsible for greenlighting the offshore wind deals, to find the 'best locations for development.'”

As has been KNOWN and ACKNOWLEDGED for some time these power-generating windmills ONSHORE are "problematic" from the RADAR standpoint!

That enormous area off the eastern coast of the USA long used for training purposes, air-air intercept training with LIVE fire and and shootdowns of drones. Interference with radars of the intercepting warplane a hindrance not permissible.

I might imagine also that the American DoD worried about Russian submarine-launched sea-skimming missiles with atomic warhead the threat as posed during a time of crisis or overt war. Interference with shore-based air defense radars not tolerable.

See several Internet articles here and here the difficulties as posed by windmills to radar.

coolbert.




Monday, April 17, 2023

Kolovrat.

This is coolbert:

Luke Skywalker again the Ukraine Conflict. This time Luke steps in it big time.

"Netizens Call Out Mark Hamill for Chatting With Ukrainian Militants Featuring 'Nazi Flag'"

From Sputnik ^ | 4/16/2023 | Andrei Dergalin the tip from Freeper.

"Hollywood star Mark Hamill, best known for his portrayal of Luke Skywalker in the Star Wars saga, ended up committing quite a blunder after he participated in a video chat with members of Ukrainian armed forces."

Click on image to see an enlarged view.

"While many social media users praised Hamill for this act, quite a few netizens pointed at the flag that was seen in the video chat hanging behind Ukrainian militants."

"The red-and-black banner in question appeared to be the flag of the so-called Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), an infamous Ukrainian nationalist militant group that collaborated with the Nazis during World War II and perpetrated acts of ethnic cleansing against civilians of Polish and Jewish descent in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia."

See the video chat image the red-and-black flag the upper right corner. The kolovrat in the center: "A sun-shaped swastika with eight arms." 

The flag + the eight-armed symbol the source of controversy! 

See previous blog entries the topic Mark Hamill with further embedded links:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/03/skywalker.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/10/skywalker.html

coolbert.





JDAM-ER.

This is coolbert:

"The United States has provided the Ukrainian Air Force with Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) precision-guided bombs, allowing them to hit large-sized Russian targets, such as bridges and hardened fortifications, from long distances."

"DEFENSE OFFICIAL CONFIRMS LEAK: AMERICAN SMART BOMBS ARE FAILING IN UKRAINE"

From https://southfront.org  17.04.2023 | Written by Kyle Anzalone. Originally published by AntiWar.

JDAM-ER failing due to incorrect arming procedure + Russian jamming of GPS signals.

"Ukrainian forces’ failure to correctly equip [enable] smart bombs and Russian jamming GPS signals are causing American-made weapons to miss their targets."

Click on image to see an enlarged view.

"A high number of American smart bombs are failing to achieve their objective in Ukraine, a Pentagon official told Politico confirming information in documents leaked by Jack Teixeira."

"The White House ordered The Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) be sent to Ukraine late last year. In March, the Pentagon confirmed the weapon was operational. While the document leaked by Teixeira is undated, it shows that Ukraine fired JDAMS on February 15 and 21."

Consider too the MILSPEAK contained in this classified document: BLUF, B/U, MAU-12, GWT, GMLRS, SAG-U, BDA, RUS, RFI.

Colonel Austin Bay correct. You need a glossary to fully understand the document. MILSPEAK a jargon very popular among those of the American professional military man guild.

coolbert.





Teplinsky VDV.


This is coolbert:

Rehabilitated! 

VDV = Russian paratroopers.

Once more the NEW man. But not necessarily a NEW man.

"Russia Reinstates Key Commander Amid 'Intense Tensions' Over Ukraine: U.K."

From https://www.newsweek.com BY ELLIE COOK ON 4/16/23. 

"A former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine has likely returned to the war-torn country as 'intense tensions' develop among Russia's top military figures, according to a new assessment.

"General Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky, who served as the commander of Russia's VDV, the airborne forces branch of the Russian military, was removed from Moscow's operations in Ukraine in January 2023, which Western analysts noted at the time."

"Writing in an update on Sunday, the ministry said Teplinsky, who has been decorated by the Kremlin, had 'highly likely returned to a major role' in Ukraine."

Senior Russian paratrooper [VDV] officer having already commanded troops in the field returns to the scene of the action, Ukraine.

See this Internet article the career of General Teplinsky.

coolbert.







Sunday, April 16, 2023

Accomplished.

This is coolbert:

Declare victory and go home?

Mission accomplished! War over! Goals of the Russian met? Fighting can cease?

Yevgenyy by his pronouncements to be banished? Out of favor? No longer welcome in the highest levels of decision making?

So many questions.

"Wagner Boss Claims Russia’s Mission Accomplished in Ukraine Yevgeny Prigozhin says it would be 'ideal' to declare an end to the war."

From Daily Beast ^ | 15th April 2023 | Allison Quinn that tip from Freeper.

"Yevgeny Prigozhin says it would be 'ideal' to declare an end to the war. But he says Russia must keep fighting, even if it means humiliating defeat. Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin says Russia has already accomplished its goals in Ukraine—but must keep fighting even if it means humiliating defeat so that the country can ultimately rise again as a 'war monster' that the international community will bow down to."

Perhaps the Russian indirectly acknowledging by constructing those fortifications as was the topic of a previous blog entry that the war effort has accomplished certain goals albeit not to the extent as was desired at the start of the war. Consolidate territorial gain all the while fully understanding further offensive action probably going to produce rather meagre results for the effort involved.

coolbert.




Paisley.

This is coolbert:

TOP SECRET. Brad Paisley.

By golly, we are saved!

"Country Singer Brad Paisley Goes To Ukraine With Senators Calling For 'Defeat Of Putin'"

From https://www.zerohedge.com article by TYLER DURDEN | APR 15, 2023.

Original story: Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

"A group of three influential senators traveled to Kiev and met with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Accompanied by country music singer Brad Paisley, the lawmakers called for the defeat of Russian President Vladimir Putin and pledged more weapons for Ukraine."


Hear Brad Paisley entertain for yourselves. Personally I have never heard of the man.

Brad Paisley here receiving with other American officials a TOP SECRET briefing on the Ukrainian war effort. Complete with cowboy hat. Good for optics and public consumption.

Again, with special attention given to item # 8 of a previous blog entry Brad one of those "recognized intellectuals and artists" espousing the Ukrainian cause.

See additional blog entries the topic "recognized intellectuals and artists":

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/03/skywalker.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/10/skywalker.html

coolbert.




Saturday, April 15, 2023

Zuni.

This is coolbert:

Probably still lethal!!

"Maine lobsterman pulls up 5-foot military rocket in trap"

Courtesy WBZ-NEWS STAFF | APRIL 13, 2023 CBS BOSTON.

"CUSHING, Maine -  A Maine lobsterman threw out his traps, looking to catch some lobster, but instead pulled up something very unexpected."

Apparently this is an unexploded Zuni 5 inch [127 mm] rocket as in the inventory [?] of the U.S. Navy. A considerable amount of war-making bang stuff. Warplanes equipped and using an array of such rockets in combat becoming flying artillery!

"Cameron Pease [the lobsterman] was on his boat about 20 miles off the coast when he found a five-foot military rocket tangled in his ropes. He brought it to shore and contacted police the next day."

Weapon now destroyed! Cameron can consider himself lucky he was not blown to bits.

Dig further this amazing stuff:

"In January 2023, the United States announced that it would be supplying 4,000 Zuni rockets to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for use in the Russo-Ukrainian War."

Yet one more weapon first developed in the 1950's enters the Ukraine Conflict. At least we are not yet at the bow and arrow stage of development.

coolbert.





Bungling.


This is coolbert:

"Lions led by donkeys!"

Think not replenishment of war-making bang stuff going to be a long-haul and difficult task courtesy the Ukraine Conflict. Thank manpower too!

"Russia has suffered devastating losses to its elite Spetsnaz commando units that could take a decade to replenish after bungling commanders sent them to help failing frontline infantry, leaked US documents reveal"

From https://www.dailymail.co.uk the article by CHRIS JEWERS FOR MAILONLINE | 14 April 2023.

AS GLEANED FROM THE LEAKED CLASSIFIED DOCUMENT DISCLOSURE.

* "Assessment says it will take Moscow years to replenish its special forces units" * "This is after Russian commanders sent Spetsnaz troops into direct combat"

Soviet/Russian spetsnaz special purpose units, ranger/commando type personnel specially selected and trained to the highest possible standard of performance, their ranks decimated!

Spetsnaz deployed and committed to battle in the manner of traditional infantry I might think most correctly a desperation effort on the part of the local Russian commanders.

Think from a much prior era the Battle of Cisterna, WW2. Two American ranger battalions sent into battle as conventional infantry. A mission inappropriate with results most dramatic. Again two battalions of the highest caliber troops trained to the highest standard wasted!

Casualties Cisterna: 311 killed | 450 POWs |761 Casualties. Catastrophic!

According to the Soviet era defector Suvorov of every 10,000 conscripts to the Red Army only twenty would be rated in the highest possible category of recruit. Based on physical and mental aptitude, combined with political reliability. Half of that number of twenty would be sent for spetsnaz training, the remainder sent for training to safeguard Red Army cryptographics.

Again, replacing and training such select personnel going to be a difficult and time-consuming task!

coolbert.




Paper.


This is coolbert:

Again, the PAPER TIGER syndrome at work?

"The term refers to something or someone that claims or appears to be powerful or threatening, but is actually ineffectual and unable to withstand challenge."

Germans? Paper tigers? The Germans?

"Paper Tiger? German Army Reserve Only Exists ‘On Paper’, Says Volunteer Boss"

From https://www.breitbart.com |  OLIVER JJ LANE | 14 Apr 2023.

"The German reserve forces are only a fraction of the officially stated size, lack equipment and training, and is a force 'that still largely exists on paper', says the chief of the German reserves association."

"Berlin is looking to make its armed forces more effective after years of under-investment, and Russian aggression reaching the borders of the European Union. The reserve forces are seen to be an important part of this plan, yet as the leader of the group which represents the interests of reserve soldiers, it is far from being able to meet these goals and appears to resemble more a paper tiger than a valued defense component."

[....]

"Far from the official total number of reserves on the books of around 930,000 people — achieved because by law everyone in Germany with past military service is a reservist forever — actually only 'around 34,000' of them are in any way active or recently trained." 

When they speak of YEARS of under-investment they more correctly should be speaking of DECADES of under-investment.

And to all this General Rommel would say? "Was ist das für ein scheiss?"

coolbert.




Surprise.


This is coolbert:

One for the money, two for the show, three to get ready, now go cat, go!

JUST an exercise! Nothing more than that! Routine!

"READY TO FIRE Putin orders test NUKE launch on the West in surprise show of strength on anniversary of his flagship Moskva sinking"

From https://www.thesun.co.uk  |  Anthony Blair Will Stewart | 14 Apr 2023.

"VLADIMIR Putin has ordered his fleet to test a nuclear missile launch in a surprise revenge move - on the one-year anniversary of the sinking of his flagship."

"The unexpected drills were announced by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu - one year after the sinking of the Moskva."

"Vladimir Putin ordered his Pacific Fleet to undertake surprise war games to test their readiness to stage a retaliatory nuclear strike on the West."

"The Pacific Fleet’s strategic firepower has been seen since Soviet times as Moscow’s main weapon in retaliatory strikes.

THREATS made repeatedly but not carried out at some point become meaningless and hollow. I am telling you people that one day the Russian will feel COMPELLED to use atomic munitions in some manner so as to eliminate any appearance of PAPER TIGER syndrome.

coolbert.





Friday, April 14, 2023

VsKO.


This is coolbert:

I had thought there was probably something to this and I was right! 

Yet one more distinct ethnic group their participation in the Ukraine Conflict. 
Chechen, Buryat, Komi we already know of. And as has been during the case with the stalemated war commencing in 2014 the Cossacks. [please note dates both # 1 and # 2]

1. "The Role of Cossacks in the Re-Invasion of Ukraine"

From https://newsaboutturkey.com | 2 Mar 2022.

"In Russia’s aggressive and unprovoked war against Ukraine, much of the global attention has understandably focused on the actions of the regular Armed Forces; but the Russian Cossacks are also playing a role in the conflict. On the opening day of the re-invasion, the head (ataman) of the All-Russian Cossack Society (Russian acronym VsKO), Nikolai Doluda, published an article reminding that “in 2014 the Kuban Cossacks were the first to come to the aid of the inhabitants of Crimea and held the onslaught of the Banderites [sic] on Chongar, Perekop, and Turkish Val; so today, the Cossacks of Russia do not stand idly by, but are aiding the residents of Donbass"

2. "Moscow creates new ‘Cossack’ paramilitary units for possible use against Ukraine"

Article by: Paul Goble | 2020/04/11 - original story "The Jamestown Foundation Publication".

"Recent reports that Moscow is deploying Cossack groups along the Russian-Ukrainian border near the Kharkov, Sumy and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine are extremely worrisome, as the Kremlin ostensibly used similar units in its initial invasion of southeastern Ukraine in 2014. Such revelations may presage a new Russian move against Ukraine and be intended as an attempt to muddy the waters about who is behind any aggression"

Cossacks their society organized along strictly military lines. Cossacks as a people enamored of war and greatly fond of the old ways. To war by horse if possible. 

coolbert.




Dodger.

This is coolbert:

Draft dodger Russia beware! Newer and much easier and simplified method of mobilization and conscription to be implemented.

"Russia’s electronic draft: As soon as they hit 'send', you've been called up"

From France 24 translation by Louise NORDSTROM | 12/04/2023.

"When Russian authorities announced a 'partial mobilization' last year to reinforce their military objectives in Ukraine, thousands of reservists immediately knew what it meant – they would be sent to war. To avoid being deployed, thousands left Russia or tried to hide from recruitment agents at home. For many, their strategies worked. Now the Russian government wants to put a stop to that with a new electronic draft system that will be almost impossible to dodge."

YES! THIS MEANS YOU YOUNG MAN! AND AN INITIATIVE FAST-TRACKED TOO!

"Senators in Russia’s upper house of parliament on Wednesday approved a bill that will allow authorities to serve conscripts and reservists with a draft summons electronically. It was the second vote in two days after lawmakers in Russia’s lower house, the state Duma, greenlighted the proposal on Tuesday. The bill – once President Vladimir Putin has signed it into law – will make Russian military mobilization efforts significantly easier."

Russians again demonstrate they are in for the long-haul? If a quick end to the war was near such steps and measures would not even be contemplated, much less enacted and brought about!

coolbert.





Thursday, April 13, 2023

Bulwark.

This is coolbert:

Mister Russian preparing for the long-haul, the Ukraine Conflict.

Fortifications in-the-making that entire Front/Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT)/Forward Edge of Battle Area (FEBA).

Click on images to see an enlarged view:

Thanks to warmapper.org research. Red dots and continuous lines represent fortifications the Russian army. Presumably strong points to thwart any Ukrainian offensive action, consolidate Russian gains. Exactly how formidable these fortifications unspecified. That red bunched area just south of the Perekop Isthmus a whole lot of fortification construction. Defense of the Crimea high on the agenda of Moscow. See importance of the Perekop Isthmus in prior blog entries here and here.

According to the Soviet era defector Suvorov during the Cold War an impressive array of fortifications existed on the border between the Soviet Union and Red China. T-10 tanks in concrete emplacements only a turret showing above ground presenting a formidable obstacle to a Chinese ground assault.

coolbert.




Charismatic.

This is coolbert:

As was suspected as is! The little man who wants to be big man!

Unmasked! Culprit found! American air national guardsman! Leaker of high classified intelligence the Ukraine Conflict.

"Leaker of U.S. secret documents worked on military base, friend says"

"THE DISCORD LEAKS | The online group that received hundreds of pages of classified material included foreigners, members tell The Post"

From WaPo the article by Shane Harris and Samuel Oakford | April 12, 2023.

Internet forum participant OG wanting to establish his bona fides as someone in the know!

"bona fides: noun - Good faith; sincerity. Information that serves to guarantee a person's good faith, standing, and reputation; authentic credentials."

"The man behind a massive leak of U.S. government secrets that has exposed spying on allies, revealed the grim prospects for Ukraine’s war with Russia and ignited diplomatic fires for the White House is a young, charismatic gun enthusiast who shared highly classified documents with a group of far-flung acquaintances searching for companionship amid the isolation of the pandemic."

Within the confines of the MICE paradigm [Money/Ideology/Compromise/Ego] this man obviously motivated by EGO I would suspect almost 100 % so. "I am somebody and I can prove it to you."

Devoted readers to the blog and those perusing in the much more casual manner encouraged to read the entire WaPo article.

NEED I SAY THAT SUCH A DISCLOSURE CAN RESULT IN THE DEATH PENALTY!

OG needs to get himself a good lawyer.

coolbert.




Wednesday, April 12, 2023

ALSIB.

This is coolbert:

Lend-Lease Soviet Union the Second World War. American warplanes the aerial ferry route!

YESTERDAY and TODAY, the airfields!

"ALSIB: What the Lend-Lease airports look like today (PHOTOS)"

From https://www.rbth.com/history | HISTORY | SEPT 21 2022 | ANNA SOROKINA.

"The main air route for ferrying aircraft from the U.S. to the USSR under the Lend-Lease Act was opened in 1942. What remains today of these airports built in the Siberian permafrost?"

"The Alaska-Siberia (‘ALSIB’) air route was created for ferrying military aircraft and cargoes from the United States to the Soviet Union under the Lend-Lease agreement. The route was 6,500 km [about 3,900 miles] long, of which 5,000 km [about 3,000 miles] passed over Soviet territory. These kilometers posed quite a challenge: the uninhabited tundra of Chukotka and the impenetrable taiga of Siberia, very strong side winds, freezing temperatures and permafrost. Sixteen airports were built or rebuilt in such conditions, through which almost 8,000 airplanes were flown to the frontline. Afterwards, the airports were also used for civilian purposes."

I believe that the warplanes when arriving Krasnoyarsk disassembled, placed on trains and shipped further west by the Trans-Siberian railway to the theater of action, Eastern Front, WW2.

Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union during WW2 rather considerable. Military hardware and supplies sent via the northern Arctic route to Murmansk and Archangel alone enough to equip an army of 2 million men. That amount representing only 1/4 of the total sent from USA to the Soviet Union during the war!

coolbert.




CAOC.

This is coolbert:

Devoted readers to the blog strongly encouraged to read this entry and the entire linked article.

ONE possible source but hardly the ONLY possible source!

CAOC = Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC).

"One Possible Source of the Leaked Classified Documents on the War in Ukraine — A Combined Operations Center"

www.thegatewaypundit.com article by Larry Johnson Apr. 11, 2023.

"If you want to understand how a collection of highly classified documents could be removed from a secure facility and wind up being distributed to the public, let me introduce you to a CAOC. I know that CAOC sounds a bit like CHAOS, but that is just a serendipitous coincidence. While the following images are real (they were taken at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar about four years ago) this particular CAOC has nothing to do with the operation underway in Ukraine. I am using it as an example of what the U.S. European Command is doing in Germany to coordinate U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine."

Thanks to Larry his explanation about as good as you are going to get. Classified documents smuggled [?] out of a controlled and guarded environment and find their way onto the Internet a matter of extreme concern to USA and associated allied nations.

Again, devoted readers to the blog and those merely perusing in a much casual manner strongly encouraged to read the entire Larry Johnson article. "ONE possible source but hardly the ONLY possible source!" Indeed!

coolbert.





Mopping.

This is coolbert:

Bakhmut the siege continues. Eight full months and yet no full resolution? Until now?

"Russian forces likely seized Bakhmut center, threaten supply lines"

Courtesy the NY Post ^ | 04/07/2023 | Olivia Land | the tip from Freeper.

"Russian forces have likely seized the center of the hotly contested city of Bakhmut, where they are threatening an essential supply route for Ukrainian forces in the west, British intelligence said Friday. The eastern city is one of the last urban areas of Donetsk that has withstood Russian incursion. Now mostly reduced to rubble, the city center has been the focus of intense fighting for months"


Click on either image to see an enlarged view.

Resources as devoted to the siege manpower and material BOTH sides I suspect enormous. The city now having little [?] importance from a tactical/operational/strategic standpoint. The FRONT will merely move five to ten miles to the west [eight to sixteen km.]? 

Let me also suggest: "it ain't over until it's over".

coolbert.