Bonanza!

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"This is a Big One, a game changer, and it will likely be a major factor in propelling the U.S. to the next (and still unknown) stage of development" — Geopolitics scholar Walter Russell Mead, July 15, 2012

Also thanks to the Chicago Tribune op ed section from the other day this blog entry borderline germane but within the context of American geo-political strategy and military options totally consistent.

With a period of two decades more or less depending who is counting and on the assumptions made, the U.S. to become TOTALLY SELF-SUFFICIENT WITH REGARD TO ENERGY, OIL AND NATURAL GAS BOTH! Even a chance of America becoming AN ENERGY EXPORTING NATION ONCE MORE!!

[at least up unto the point of 1945 American an oil exporting nation!!]

"An American Bonanza"

"Humble North Dakota quietly eclipses cocky Alaska in our drive for energy independence"

"By 2035, oil shipments from the Middle East to North America 'could almost be nonexistent,' the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries now predicts."

All this thanks to the: "The Williston Basin and the Bakken Formation."

That Bakken formation a deposit of oil TWO SAUDI ARABIA OF OIL WORTH!! An immense geological formation encompassing those states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and two Canadian provinces.

Oil the extraction of which until recently hitherto not recoverable. Thanks to the process of fracking oil now recoverable and in almost unimaginable abundance.

500 billion barrels worth to be more or less exact is the estimate!! At current American consumption rates of oil, that is about thirty years supply in Bakken alone!!

Fracking too allowing [not possible prior] for supplies of natural gas most of those deposits under the Appalachian Mountains to be exploited, also about two Saudi Arabia worth of energy under American soil.

American military might assuring a constant and abundant flow of oil unimpeded from the Persian Gulf area for at least forty years, that constant threat of conflict in the area a worry to generations of American administrations much mitigated by the development of that Bakken Formation?

This does remain to be seen!

coolbert.

Mali.

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Thanks to Professor Robert Launay and the Chicago Tribune we have some background information on the conflict as currently raging in Mali. Insurrection and military coup de etat further complicating an already bad situation.

Mali until recently not even a player much less a serious player for the U.S. military now for the American African Command [AFRICOM] a most important matter.

Those Pilatus reconnaissance/surveillance aircraft as deployed throughout African in part being flown against targets in Mali

"World reaction to coup's aftermath is slowed by blind support of democracy" - - By Robert Launay

"All of a sudden, Mali is big news. Unfortunately, it has taken the militant Islamists' willful, systematic destruction of historic monuments of Timbuktu to get our attention. Such radical Islamic iconoclasm, on a scale that recalls the Taliban's demolition of the Bamiyan Buddhas, has profoundly shocked the rest of the world."

[During the Medieval period the university at Timbuktu was a place of great Islamic learning and culture, without rival on the continent and on a par with those universities of Europe.]

That combination of Taureg and Al Qaeda type insurrectionists destroying all and any vestiges of the ancient Islamic way as practiced in Mali. Taliban and Wahhabi style Islam being the vogue, at least among the jihadists.

"The rebellion began as an unholy (and ultimately unstable) alliance of hard-line Islamists, the Ansar Dine ("soldiers of the faith"), and Tuareg militants fighting for autonomy if not outright independence." Ansar = "helper". Dine = deen = faith.

[Taureg often referred to as "blue men of the desert"]

Those fighters that confronted Gordon at Khartoum over one hundred years ago also calling themselves ansar, helpers!

That "central government" of Mali inept, ineffectual and incompetent, not able to successfully combat this rebellion of the Taureg and ansar, the military having overthrown [coup de etat] the legally constituted government gone only exacerbating an already bad situation.

coolbert.

Munitions.

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Those type of munitions and armaments as carried by combat oriented American UAV at ever increasing degrees of lethality.

Predator A carrying only Hellfire missile. Predator B [Reaper] carrying Hellfire missile and Paveway precision guided bombs. Predator C [Avenger] carrying internally Hellfire missile, Paveway guided bombs and also able to carry JDAM ordnance.

1. JDAM a strap on kit allowing any "dumb" or "iron" bomb, conventional explosives as dropped from warplanes, to become SMART. That kit including fins for steering and guidance electronics using GPS and inertial guidance for accurate "pin-point" bombing.

Conventional munitions become SMART!!

"The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is a guidance kit that converts unguided bombs, or 'dumb bombs' into all-weather 'smart' munitions. JDAM-equipped bombs are guided by an integrated inertial guidance system coupled to a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver"

"a "bolt-on" guidance package that converts unguided gravity bombs into Precision-Guided Munitions, or PGMs. The key components of the system consist of a tail section with aerodynamic control surfaces, a (body) strake kit, and a combined inertial guidance system and GPS guidance control unit"

Bolt on or strap on it matters little, the weapon becoming much more sophisticated, accurate and DEADLY!!

[inertial guidance determines your location based upon starting point, your direction of travel for how long at what speed. "If we started here and have been traveling at this speed in this direction for this long we are now HERE!!" JDAM uses a combination of GPS and inertial guidance]

2. Developments with Ground Positioning System [GPS] allowing for an ever increasing accuracy of JDAM, indeed for all American weaponry relying on GPS!!

My understanding of GPS is that the civilian receiver version of the system allowed for a location to be determined to less than about one hundred [100] meters.

The original military receiver version of GPS allowing for location to be determined to with a few tens of meters.

AND the military receiver version of GPS accurate to within centimeters [?] if a second signal simultaneously received from a friendly transmitter sending a signal from a known and precisely surveyed location!!

That JDAM now can rely upon what is called WADGPS? A number of receivers at carefully surveyed locations part of a system of correlation, correction, compensation. Techniques to enhance and make more accurate the GPS coordinates as determined by a JDAM receiver.

"Wide Area Differential GPS (WADGPS) techniques . . . [relies upon] the deployment of a network of precisely calibrated GPS receiver ground stations . . . which continuously measure the error in the received GPS signal against the precisely surveyed location . . . The compensated GPS errors achieved using this technique are as low as several inches in all three axes."

"[error] is reduced by updating differential GPS offsets prior to weapon release. These offsets are calculated using an SDB Accuracy Support Infrastructure, consisting of three or more GPS receivers at fixed locations transmitting calculated location to a correlation station at the theatre Air Operations Center."

3. Predator A, Reaper and evidently also Avenger at this time NOT able to deliver on target DIME munitions. Dense Inert Metallic Explosive. Precision glide bomb GBU-39 not in the inventory as currently determined for any of the combat UAV.

"The GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) is a 250 pound (113 kg) precision-guided glide bomb that is intended to provide aircraft with the ability to carry a higher number of bombs"

DIME to be incorporated into the mix of weaponry for the combat UAV at some point?

"Boeing is developing a version of the SDB I which replaces the steel casing with a lightweight composite casing and the warhead with a focused blast explosive such as Dense Inert Metal Explosive (DIME). This should further reduce collateral damage when using the weapon for pin-point strikes in urban areas."

NO NEED to include gunfire of some sort in the combat UAV as envisioned. Missile and guided bombs alone are more than lethal and deadly? I would have to think so.

coolbert.

240 mm MRL.

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The battle for Aleppo continues and the situation is in doubt.

As reported from only two days ago now and seen in the DEBKAfile,July 25, 2012, that Syrian army now using multiple-rocket-launcher [MRL] concentrated fire against their own people!!

"Syrian army fires extra-deadly artillery in Aleppo"

"The rebels are in retreat from Aleppo dogged by the Syrian army's 11th Division firing heavy artillery shells whose blast hits a 250-meter radius and maximizes death and destruction. The troops [Syrian army and not the insurgents] are also shooting Katyusha 240mm rockets into residential districts of Aleppo"

240 mm MRL the fire of which is most devastating, Assad willing to crush the egg shell with a sledge hammer, violence and fire power gratuitous and overwhelming!!

240 mm MRL a single focused and directed volley of such rocket artillery able to destroy in totality an entire grid square [a grid square 1,000 meters on a side]!!

240 mm MRL as obtainable ONLY [??] from the old Soviet Union or the North Koreans [DPRK].

That 240 mm MRL also chemical capable. Can carry and deliver for a distance chemical munitions.

1. The BM-24 Soviet model.

"The BM-24 is a multiple rocket launcher designed in the Soviet Union. It is capable of launching 240mm rockets from 12 launch tubes"

2. 240MM ROCKET LAUNCHER M-1985 and 240MM ROCKET LAUNCHER M-1991 - - North Korean.

"The North Koreans have produced two different 240mm rocket launchers, the 12 round M-1985 and 22 round M-1991. The M-1985 rocket pack is easily identified as it has 2 rows of 6 tubes and is mounted on a cab behind engine chassis. The M-1991 is mounted on a cab over engine chassis. Both launch packs could be adapted to any suitable heavy cross-country truck."

Cracking the proverbial egg shell with the sledge hammer surely an understatement here? Firepower overwhelming, again gratuitous and callous in the extreme. Assad is going for keeps and playing rough with one and all and the worst is yet to come?

coolbert.

Aleppo.

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 Right now, as we speak, the Syrian city of Aleppo contested between the forces of the despot and the insurgents of the Free Syrian Army.

The situation as of yet without resolution but at least half [50 %] of the city currently reported to be in the hands of those elements in opposition to Assad.

 Aleppo described as a city about the size of Los Angeles and THE LARGEST CITY IN SYRIA.

 I am not sure if this area or population wise or a combination thereof I would have thought Damascus to have been the largest Syrian city.

Aleppo a city that has existed for at least eight thousand [8,000] years.

Damascus having been occupied continuously longer than Aleppo? Aleppo nonetheless ANCIENT!!

Of great significance to the insurgents is the capture of the Citadel? 

That most ancient defensive and military structure located in the very center of the city and dating also back to antiquity.

The Citadel in the very center of Aleppo. This image taken some decades ago? That tell is not natural but is for the most part a man-made mound. 

 A fortification having been on that exact site since 1600 B.C.

The Citadel in the most elaborate and well constructed form during the Crusades. 

Over the many centuries:

* Besieged by the Crusaders but not captured!

* Captured by the Mongols.

* Captured by Timur the Lame [Tamerlane].

Damascus for that matter too besieged by the Crusader but not captured!

The Citadel NOW in various stages of rehabilitation and most impressive.

Those areas having undergone reconstruction appearing almost as in the fashion as would have been recognized by a Crusader or Saladin himself? 

See here and here web sites devoted to images of the Citadel.

Seeing the flag of the Free Syrian Army flying over the Citadel will be a clear and unmistakable sign that the time of reckoning for Assad is at hand, without question?

The Citadel as with Krak of the Chevaliers to be thought of as NOT merely a military fortress but much more, a city within a city, a haven and refuge, a symbol of ruling power.

Crusaders, Mongols and Timur yesterday, Free Syrian Army today!!

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Nimrod.

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 The quotation as normally stated, Hitler speaking to von Paulus prior to the commencement of Case Blau [Blue], 1942, that eastward movement of the German Sixth Army resulting in Stalingrad and all that would mean for the German war effort:

 "with your army you can do anything" 

NO! 

 The more correct and exact translation of the quote Hitler speaking to von Paulus:

"with your army you could storm the gates of heaven itself." 

For this hubris, this BLASPHEMY OF THE MOST MONUMENTAL PROPORTIONS, THE GERMAN SIXTH ARMY WAS DOOMED FROM THE START?

 As it was for Hitler so many thousands of years earlier so was it too for the man Nimrod from the Bible? 

Nimrod a great king who aspired to challenge GOD himself.

And also for the offenses of hubris and arrogance his [Nimrod] entire kingdom rent asunder, destroyed. Building the Tower of Babel, reaching toward the heavens, believing himself all-powerful and invincible but finding chastisement of the most extreme sort being his reward.

 Of Nimrod [thanks to the wiki] Josephus [from ancient times] wrote:

 "Now it was Nimrod who excited them to such an affront and contempt of God . . . a bold man, and of great strength of hand . . . it were through his means they were happy . . . to believe that it was their own courage which procured that happiness. He also gradually changed the government into tyranny, seeing no other way of turning men from the fear of God, but to bring them into a constant dependence on his power."

That German Sixth Army [1942] at that exact moment the most powerful and unique military force on the planet, seemingly invincible and all-conquering, proven so and well aware commander and men of their abilities.

 Ultimately to no avail!

 Hubris, arrogance and blasphemy all making for a very bad combination, again, those quarter million German soldiers doomed from the start?

 coolbert.

Land Mass?

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 Thanks to the lighthousememories web site and Skyscrapercity we have images so very typical of the Scarborough Shoals.

Called the Panatag Shoals in the Tagalog.

A "land mass" WITHIN the Chinese "nine dash line" a point of contention, a punador [point of honor] between the Philippines and China.

 A "land mass" as claimed by both nations as sovereign territory.

 A "land mass" you be the judge of IS IT worth fighting over.

 Of course it is not the "land mass" above the water line that is at stake here. It is the contiguous waters valuable fishing grounds and the believed and possible natural gas and oil deposits as to be found under the oceanic bottom as desired by all parties involved.

A shoal flying from that itty-bitty chunk of rock is the Filipino flag. According to the caption this is Scarborough at low tide!! 

 From the web site article "The Lighthouse as a Sovereignty Symbol" we find: [and thanks to John in all cases]

"But build a lighthouse and claim ownership and that light is visible to all peoples for years into the future. Build it high enough and it is visible for 360 degrees. Put some men on it and it becomes your property. Hmmm!"

 Here the Filipino military raising the colors, perhaps from several decades ago? 

 And also thanks to an authority in such matters:

"To me, sovereignty consisted of having a military strong enough to uphold one's claim to territory somewhere. All else fails."

NOT ONLY having claims, legitimate or otherwise, but an ability to gain actual physical control, occupation and then continue to exercise your dominion, using force if necessary or the threat of same to keep "all comers" away.

Sounds harsh, archaic and brutal but that is what is!

And believe me, we have not heard the last of the South China Sea, the Spratly Islands, Scarborough or the Paracels. Far from it.

coolbert.