Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Apocalypse I.

This is coolbert:

Sea of fire!!

Massive and prodigious numbers of North Korean artillery massively arrayed for concentrated and focused fire missions along the DMZ [Demilitarized Zone] between North and South Korea in a matter of a few hours wreaking havoc on that most densely populated Seoul metropolitan area. Long-range guns and rocket artillery - - thousands of rounds per minute if only firing conventional explosive the results of which can only be described as apocalyptic beyond measure.

"apocalypse - - any universal or widespread destruction or disaster"

The is "the 'sea of fire' scenario".

That often repeated threat of the North Korean regime in Pyongyang to destroy the South Korean [Republic of Korea] capital city of Seoul using artillery as the weapon of choice.  A threat not without substance.

Fact or fiction? Hyperbole or a reasoned and rational assumption?

From two Internet web sites dire warnings perhaps seen and assessed in a more correct manner:

1.  "North Korea Can’t Really Turn Seoul Into a 'Sea of Fire'

"For more than a decade, conventional wisdom has held that North Korea could subject the South Korean capital of Seoul to devastating artillery attack. With a greater metropolitan population of twenty-four million, Seoul has the largest population density of all the OECD countries, eight times more dense than New York City and three times more dense than Tokyo and Yokohama."

"Aimed at Seoul, North Korea’s prodigious amount of artillery, particularly its 170 mm Koksan guns and 240 mm multiple rocket launchers, could kill 'millions of people' in the event of war on the Korean Peninsula."

Most significant is that the North Korean artillery rounds as fired have an amazingly high "dud' rate:

"The most recent dud rate available from any DPRK artillery piece comes from DPRK attack on Yeonpyong Do and yields a dud rate of 25 percent."

2. "Can North Korea Really 'Flatten' Seoul?"

"Many have suggested that North Korean missiles and artillery could "flatten" the city of Seoul. This isn't the clear-cut case, as those who know modern weapons can tell you. Perhaps more importantly, the very idea of destroying an entire city oversimplifies the diplomatic and military aspects of this very real, modern-day threat."

"Even in a worst-case scenario, where both U.S. and South Korean forces are somehow paralyzed or otherwise engaged, and North Korea fires its 170mm artillery batteries and 240mm rocket launchers with total impunity, the grim reality wouldn't live up to the hype. Buildings would be perforated, fires would inevitably rage and an unknown number of people would die. Seoul would be under siege—but it wouldn't be flattened, destroyed or leveled" - - A. Cordesman.

These various "dire" predictions and warnings, admonitions in advance, the obliteration of Seoul expected to be a "done deal" in case of war on the Korean peninsula based upon this particular analysis:

"According to one report, a South Korean security analyst suggested that DPRK artillery pieces of calibers 170mm and 240mm 'could fire 10,000 rounds per minute to Seoul and its environs.' The number of Koksan guns is not publicly reported, but it is reliably reported that North Korea has about 500 long-range artillery tubes within range of Seoul, double the levels of a the mid-1990s. Large caliber self propelled artillery pieces typically have a sustained rate of fire of between four and eight rounds per minute [perhaps more accurately so a round fired every five minutes?]. This suggests a total rate of fire of artillery alone of between 2,000 and 4,000 rounds per minute. The DPRK's two hundred 240mm MRLs fire either 12 or 22 rounds, providing a maximum single salvo of no more than 4,400 rounds."


* An artillery barrage as noted by the "South Korean security analyst" directed against "Seoul and its environs" and not necessarily downtown Seoul. Seoul and ENVIRONS!

* Artillery encompassing tube artillery of the biggest bore [170 mm] AND rocket artillery of 240 mm size. In the Soviet scheme of things all "artillery" to include all mortars of 122 mm and larger and rocket artillery beyond a certain size.

* That 170 mm Koksan gun able to fire a round only once every five minutes?

* Do not assume that ROK and American forces will merely be passive and idle observers and not fight back. The North Korea are going to receive a LOT of counter-battery fire and air strikes.

* That destruction of Seoul "and environs" not guaranteed but rather a devastating artillery barrage also having significance as a terror weapon, creating mass panic and a civilian exodus of Biblical proportions from the city southward, those refugees creating a monumental problem for ROK military planners.

* These cheerful assessments neglect the possible use of chemical or biological rounds being fired. High explosive artillery and MRL alone one thing, chemical and biological weaponry if used the scenario changing dramatically and for the worse.

Apocalypse when?


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