Probability?

This is coolbert:

Thanks to Mike through Colonel Craig I have some extracts from a recent briefing as given by retired American general officer Barry McCaffrey to "NBC Executives and Producers".

"IRAN, NUKES, & OIL: THE GULF CONFRONTATION"

That confrontation a result of embargoes and restrictive practices placed on the Iranian hoping to coerce the government in Tehran to abandon nuclear weapon ambitions. Confrontation resulting in tenseness with the threat of escalating violence and WAR a prospect!

With KEY points:

* "15% probability of major military action in the coming 90 days."

That Strait of Hormuz and key choke point, a very big percentage of world-wide exported oil passing though that exit/entrance to the Persian Gulf narrow BUT even more so the two main shipping channels as used by those super-tankers more congested and constricted in a way that is extremely hazardous.

* "21 miles wide through [the] narrowest part of Strait of Hormuz."

* "Two parallel shipping lanes each 2 miles wide in the Strait."

General McCaffrey of the opinion that the Iranian threat more potent and capable that generally thought.

* "Bottom Line: This Naval Force [Iranian] can close the Gulf. They could sink a US carrier in the Gulf narrow waterway."

* "Bottom Line: [American forces] Capable of destroying Iranian air and naval power and nuclear facilities in a six month campaign."

"The Gulf Confrontation: Conclusions"

* "Iran will not for any reason forsake its nuclear ambitions."

* "There is a significant chance of Iranian miscalculation resulting in major military confrontation in the Gulf in the coming 12 months."

And also:

"2012 National Security Challenges to America"

"#1 RISK -­-­ WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN"

* 150,000 US/NATO forces 870 miles from the open sea.

* Pakistan transit essential to logistics survival of the force.

[at one time 70 % of all U.S./NATO logistics passing through the Karachi/Khyber Pass route. Dependence on that route by now has been ameliorated?]

Comments:

* Once you have told the Iranian they cannot have nuclear weapons you must be ready to act forcefully and with resolve if needed. And the more you tell the Iranian they CANNOT HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS YOU MAKE THEM EVEN MORE DESIROUS TO POSSESS SAME?

*  A good general always plans for a line of retreat? And where exactly is that line of retreat in Afghan? American/NATO forces would have to fight their way out if the situation goes from bad to worse and doing so in the proverbial heartbeat. Recall the infamous retreat of the British army Christmas 1842. 18,000 English troops and camp followers attempting to make the ninety mile trek from Kabul to the Khyber Pass and safety - - ONLY ONE TROOP TOTAL ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY EXTRICATE FROM PERIL!!

And thank you General McCaffrey!

coolbert.