This is coolbert:
Here Colonel [retired] Austin Bay comments on the most recent artillery duel between the armed forces of North [DPRK] and South Korea [ROK].
An intensive artillery barrage initiated by the North, an island, occupied by the South Koreans suffering considerable damage in the process. Artillery fire returned by the South Koreans, no word of damage as done to the North Koreans.
And the question is asked - - as usual - - what does Kim, reputed to be as sick as he is - - hope to gain by such measures [artillery duel]?
"The Korean War Continues "
"Why did North Korea lace a South Korean island with artillery fire this week, then threaten further escalation? Because sensational attacks are a vicious form of advertising that reap significant political and economic dividends."
According to Colonel Bay:
"Four deep concerns give South Korea and the U.S. pause when considering military action to topple the Kim regime."
Colonel Bay further lists these concerns as being:
1. "The global economy is a huge consideration."
2. "China's reaction is another concern."
3. "A dynastic change is brewing in the North"
4. The economic desolation of North Korea a matter of grave concern to the South: "it could take five decades to make the wretched place habitable"
* ONLY a truce, an armistice, exists between North and South Korea. There was NEVER a peace treaty, a total cessation to hostilities. Almost sixty years has gone by now and the two warring parties, including foreign contingents, remain on a war footing.
* The ramifications for the global economy in case of an all-out war on the Korean peninsula would be indeed GLOBAL! China, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, all would see a drastic cut-back in the mainstay of their economies, exports! NOT to mention the tremendous devastation and loss of life.that would occur throughout all of South Korea.
* The use of widespread use of chemical weapons by North Korea in case of war with the South is a given. Biological weapons may also be employed by the North, that too is a possible, the deployment of nuclear weapons by the North at some stage of a conflict as being not precluded. Apocalyptic type of stuff dreaded by all!
* With the passing of Kim, close-at-hand or eventual, a power struggle within North Korea could perhaps even turn violent, the various factions vying for control creating an unwanted instability, unpredictable - - and that for a nation having a nuclear capability!!