Simulations I.

This is coolbert:

Simulations & war games. Modeling of warfare.

Simulations, war games, map exercises, modeling as originally based upon the Kriegspiel concept. And since inception continually developed to much more higher and accurate levels of sophistication!

It is not unreasonable for both the lay person and the military professional both to ask: "are these war games, the map exercises, the simulations, the modeling of military combat valid, and what to degree are they valid." Simulations such as that of the German invasion of England - - 1940.

It is fair to assume that the intuitive and obvious response would be: "unless the professionals felt there was some degree of validity to these map exercises, simulations and war games, the modeling of warfare, they would not be used!" And this is a fair and accurate understanding?

The more accurate the intelligence and information available to the planners, the more accurate the assumptions made, war games, simulations of war and battle can be QUITE ACCURATE! This is intuitive, even to the uninitiated?

From the era of the Second World War, we have the example of two war games, simulations that became real-world combat, with modeled results that conformed pretty closely to reality:

1. The Meuse River offensive and river crossing, the Battle of France - - 1940.

According to Dupuy:

"Gen. Heinz Guderian, in his memoirs, tells the story of how,in the approach of his corps to the Meuse River in May 1940, the plans and preparations had been so good that his corps headquarters issued orders for the assault across the river simply by changing the date on an order they had prepared in an earlier war game and issuing it without further change."

It seems prior to the German Ardennes offensive of 1940, two war games had been held in the months prior, modeling the crossing of the Meuse River by the armored formations of Guderian. The war game, the simulation seeming to show that not only could armor cross the Meuse River without support, but could continue the offensive without waiting for further infantry reinforcement. THIS OCCURRING IN REAL-LIFE, THE GERMAN TANK UNITS UNDER THE COMMAND OF GUDERIAN CONTINUING THEIR OFFENSIVE UNABATED AND MOST SUCCESSFULLY!

A simulation or simulations of which seemed to justify that German planning and assumptions were correct, the outcome of the war games NOT FULLY BELIEVED OR SUPPORTED BY THOSE COMMANDERS SENIOR TO GUDERIAN!!

2. The Battle of the Huertgen Forest - - 1944.

Again from Dupuy:

"On the German side, even as the 28th Division's attack began, the commander of Army Group B, Field Marshal Walter Model, was convening his subordinate commanders for a map exercise based on a theoretical American attack in the vicinity of Huertgen. The exercise was barely under way when a telephone call told of the actual American attack . . . Model continued the map exercise with the actual situation as subject."

The simulation became reality and reality became the simulation!!

The Huertgen Forest is agreed upon [?] to have been the roughest and toughest battle as engaged in by the U.S. Army during the Second World War. A DEFEAT for U.S. ground forces, a victory for the German! Defeat in measure due to a war game, a simulation?

Again, unless the professionals, those at the higher levels of command, FELT that these simulations were a pretty good indicator of reality, they would NOT be used? And used even in times of combat, while actual battle was occurring, and not merely in the planning stages thereof! These simulation are NEVER going to be 100 % accurate, but can be seen as accurate - - to a pretty good and acceptable degree!

coolbert.