Farewell.

This is coolbert:

"With 6,000 shells being fired by Ukraine each day, we in this country[Great Britain] are down to less than a week’s supply"

Seems other persons are thinking as I am!

"Farewell to arms: Britain’s depleted military"

From "THE SPECTATOR" the article by Andrew Roberts | 25 February 2023.

As extracted:

"In almost all conflicts since the Napoleonic Wars, it has been heavy artillery that caused around two-thirds of battlefield casualties. Even in the Great War, artillery killed more people than the machine gun, despite our cultural concentration on the murderous power of the latter. In the Russo-Ukrainian war today, artillery fire causes 80 per cent of military casualties on both sides. Heavy artillery is thus a prerequisite for a modern army to be taken seriously on the world stage."

"The British Army employed heavy artillery – by which is effectively meant 105mm and 155mm caliber guns – in Kosovo, both Iraq wars and Afghanistan. When Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago there were around 100 155mm guns here, enough for Britain to pack a serious punch. Yet with around 30 having been given to Ukraine, more than that entering obsolescence or unrepairable, and six in Estonia protecting our battalion there, the British Army is now down to too few operational heavy guns to conduct a foreign war."

"Moreover, with 6,000 shells being fired by each side in Ukraine per day, we in this country are down to less than a week’s supply of shells. When Lord Northcliffe raised the warning over the famous Shells Crisis of May 1915, Britain at least had several hundred thousand in reserve. Today’s number is a small fraction of that. Jens Stoltenberg, head of Nato, recently said that Ukraine is using shells at a far faster rate than our ability to replenish. As a result, he said, the waiting time for large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months, so orders placed today would only be delivered two-and-a-half years later’."

See previous blog entries as relevant:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/02/foolish-ii.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/02/foolish.html

coolbert:

A-50.

This is coolbert:

Attack cost-efficient to say the least.

Belarus partisans at work? Perhaps even Ukrainian special operation units operating Belarus?

Russian A-50 AEW&C aircraft now out of action the Ukraine Conflict. To what extent damaged not clear.

1. "Explosions near Machulishchy air base in Belarus: Russia’s A-50 aircraft might be hit"

From www.ukrinform.net | UKRINFORM 26.02.2023. 

"This morning explosions have occurred near the Machulishchy air base in Belarus. As a result, Russia’s A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft might have been hit."

[....]

“'According to the preliminary data, the morning/night attack targeted Russia’s A-50 AEW&C aircraft, which might have been hit,' the report states.

"The aircraft could have been damaged by 'an unidentified object dropped from a height'."

THIS SOUNDS TO ME LIKE A SOVIET WW2 ERA SHAPED CHARGE HAND GRENADE PARACHUTE STABILIZED AS DROPPED FROM A QUADROCOPTER DRONE!

Further:

2. "RUSSIAN LONG-RANGE RADAR DETECTION AND CONTROL AIRCRAFT TARGETED AT AIRFIELD IN BELARUS – REPORTS"

From southfront.org/ 27.02.2023. 

"On the morning of February 26, a military airfield located on the outskirts of the capital of Belarus reportedly came under attack. This military facility hosted Russian military aircraft."

[....]

"Some local sources spread information that the attack was allegedly carried out by some Belarusian saboteurs who are members of the local radical opposition groups. Drone control consoles were reportedly found near the airfield."

Consider too and even more importantly the cost of a warplane the value of which would be about $300 million dollars being destroyed by a $1,000 drone!!

I think a direct hit on the cockpit of the A-50 would permanently disable the plane for any time into the near future.

coolbert.

De-miners.

This is coolbert:

Poland stands tall! Yeoman duty the Ukraine Conflict! Removal landmines and other unexploded ordnance the black earth steppe land the Eurasian land mass accomplished!

"'yeoman's duty' means not hard work, necessarily, but a duty or assignment faithfully executed . . . reliability is implicit."

"Polish police return from secret mission in Ukraine demining former Russian-occupied territory"

Thanks to | Notes From Poland | FEB 23, 2023 | SOCIETY.

"A group of nearly 100 Polish police officers has returned from an operation – kept secret until now – to demine areas in Ukraine won back from Russian occupation. The team was welcomed home by President Andrzej Duda at the presidential palace, where he awarded them medals for bravery."

"Working in the Kyiv region, the Polish group cleared more than 342,000 square meters of land [eighty-four acres] and over 17.5 kilometers [about ten miles] of roads. They were forced to seek shelter during Russian air raids 129 times during the mission, with none of the team injured."

"The Polish officers safely removed around 2,000 dangerous objects, including mines, grenades and grenade launchers"

Grand strategy as understood planning for the aftermath of the war a must for the Ukrainian even as fighting continues. See previous blog entry as applicable:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/01/deminers.html

coolbert.

Bizarre.

This is coolbert:

Seems the Russian has been watching too much Hollywood world-is-coming-to-an-end disaster movies.

As reported by the U.S. version of the English tabloid "The Sun".

"BLOW UP Putin’s allies bizarrely threaten to nuke Yellowstone Super-volcano with Satan-2 missile to ‘cause radioactive eruption’"

Story by Tariq Tahir Feb 23 2023.

"VLADIMIR Putin’s allies have bizarrely threatened to use the Satan-2 nuclear missile to attack the Yellowstone super-volcano."

"The attack - that could cause a radioactive eruption - was openly talked about on state-run TV and came as the Russian tyrant ordered testing of the 16,000 mph missile."

"Putin is said to have warned Joe Biden of the test launch of the missile - officially known as the RS-28 Sarmat - in advance, while the US president was in Ukraine."

"Speaking on a nightly panel discussion about the war hosted by Kremlin mouthpiece Vladimir Solovyov, one military expert talked about how the missiles could be used."

The Soviet/Russian even during the Cold War threatening to use grandiose weaponry in a grandiose manner to achieve grandiose results. 

Mr. Russian please be aware that a cataclysmic eruption of the Yellowstone volcano devastation as a result hardly to be confined to the USA. Cloud of dust consisting of ash and radioactive particles to last for an entire generation or two, obliteration of entire societies guaranteed. Russia included.

coolbert.

Groundwork.

This is coolbert:

Moldova. East of Romania. Romania a constituent member of NATO.

Trouble a-brewing Has been for time. Now an enhanced wariness.

"Why Moldova fears it could be next for Putin"

From CNN.com ^ | February 26, 2023 | Rob Picheta the tip from Freeper.

"Tensions are mounting in Moldova, a small country on Ukraine’s southwestern border, where Russia has been accused of laying the groundwork for a coup that could drag the nation into the Kremlin’s war. Moldova’s President, Maia Sandu, has accused Russia of using 'saboteurs' disguised as civilians to stoke unrest amid a period of political instability, echoing similar warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky"

Need I remind devoted readers to the blog of the importance of the Soviet/Russian arms depot Cobasna? Enough armament that one facility to equip a Soviet era Combined Arms Army.

 See all previous blog entries all association of Moldova to the Ukraine Conflict:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/08/compromise.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/07/kolbasna.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/cobasna.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/rgd-5.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/04/dneister.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/11/budjak-republic.html

coolbert.

Macabre.

This is coolbert:

"macabre: adjective - Upsetting or horrifying by association with death or injury; gruesome: synonym: ghastly. Constituting or including a representation of death."

The commander and owner of Wagner PMC Prigozhin trying to make a point. But doing so in a gruesome and obscene manner.

"Putin's Wagner chief revealed a huge pile of his mercenaries were killed in just one day as he accuses the defense chief of failing to provide his army with enough weapons - in a sign of a growing split within Russian forces."

PUBLISHED: 22 February 2023 | the article By WILL STEWART.

* "Wagner chief reveals huge pile of his mercenaries killed in one day as he continues to accuse 'treasonous' defense chief of failing to give his men ammo in sign of growing split within Russian forces" * "Wagner army lead Yevgeny Prigozhin accused minister Sergei Shoigu of lying" * "Photo shows fighters believed to have been killed in the past day near Bakhmut" 

"Putin's Wagner chief revealed a huge pile of his mercenaries were killed in just one day as he accuses the defense chief of failing to provide his army with enough weapons - in a sign of a growing split within Russian forces." 

Courtesy the image the Mail and thanks to same.

"He [Prigozhin] posted a macabre picture showing the bodies of dozens of fighters, believed to be around Bakhmut and killed in the past 24 hours, claiming the losses are five times greater due to the incompetence of top Russian commanders."

As it is for the Russian military man during the Ukraine Conflict so was it too during the Great War!

"Eastern Front. The impact of war seen in the hundreds of dead bodies lying in a wood after a mustard gas attack. The dead soldiers are probably Russian as they were not supplied with gas masks."

Never I suspect in whatever conflict has been the life of a Russian soldier ever been easy! The Russian muzhik [peasant] whether in the ranks of the military or as a civilian always fraught with danger from a variety of quarters.

coolbert.

Rouge.

This is coolbert:

"It is very hard when you arrive in the area now to have any idea of what the countryside looked like before the war." - VINCENT KESSLER, REUTERS PHOTOGRAPHER.

Damage many villages/towns/cities Ukraine immense. And in one-hundred years it will all look like? As it is now in France it will be tomorrow in Ukraine?

To a degree we already know!

"First Person: The towns in Ukraine which no longer exist"

From news.un.org/en/ | 17 February 2023 Migrants and Refugees.

"Almost a year into the war in Ukraine, some communities are having to cope with the total destruction of their way of life and the towns where they used to live; that’s according to a humanitarian worker for the UN Migration Agency, IOM."

As to what will be:

"The ghost villages of Verdun"

"Nearly a century after the guns fell silent in World War One, a group of villages wiped out by fighting on France's bloodiest battleground lead a ghostly existence."

All thanks Reuters | VINCENT KESSLER, REUTERS PHOTOGRAPHER | 8 Apr 2014.

SCROLL THE CURSOR UP/DOWN WITHIN EACH IMAGE TO SEE THE BEFORE AND AFTER!

SEE AS WELL AT THE END OF THE ARTICLE THE SLIDE SHOW WITH ADDITIONAL IMAGES BEFORE/AFTER.

"A Tour of the Eerie Villages France Never Rebuilt After WWI"

From www.bloomberg.com/news the original article Reuters by Mark Byrnes March 20, 2014.

"After the Battle of Verdun left hundreds of thousands dead, the towns-turned-battlefields sat empty out of respect."

CLICK ON THE CIRCLE EACH IMAGE THE UPPER RIGHT CORNER TO SEE YESTERDAY/TODAY.

Further see the wiki entry Zone Rouge:

"The land, which originally covered more than 1,200 square kilometers (460 sq mi), was deemed too physically and environmentally damaged by conflict for human habitation. Rather than attempt to immediately clean up the former battlefields, the land was allowed to return to nature."

I might well suspect the black earth cropland of the Eurasian steppe land far too valuable to be left fallow. Unexploded ordnance will remain a dangerous aspect of farming in that part of the world far beyond the foreseeable future.

coolbert.

Respectable.

This is coolbert:

Canada to the rescue, the Ukraine Conflict!

"Here's everything Canada has sent to Ukraine since Russia invaded"

From the National Post the story by Tristin Hopper • Yesterday [21 February?]. Courtesy the tip "Blazing Cat Fur".

"Feb. 24 marks the first anniversary of Russia launching its all-out invasion of Ukraine. Although Moscow figured their “special military operation” would only last a matter of days, strong Ukrainian resistance has meant that Russian forces have largely been contained to a few pockets in the country’s east — and at the cost of as many as 60,000 dead Russian soldiers, according to the U.K’s Ministry of Defense." 

"The Ukraine defense has persisted in large part due to a massive influx of foreign military aid, in which Canada has ranked as a rather respectable contributor. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Canada is now the fifth largest donor of Ukrainian military aid."

See further this You Tube video:

"All the military aid Canada has sent to Ukraine". 

Comments:

* High marks can be given to the Canadian for their resolve. That entire active duty Canadian ground forces about 22,000 troops their inventory of war-fighting bang stuff now sadly depleted.

* Canadian military spending as a percentage of gross domestic product and primarily devoted to NATO mission however sorely lacking. 

"Canada is estimated to have spent only 1.36 per cent of its GDP on the military last year, with only four other NATO members having spent less: Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Spain."

* Strictly from a logistics standpoint those field rations will feed every man in the active Ukrainian army [200,000?] with ONE meal for TWO days.

* HEY! Whatever happened to the Canadian General Trevor Cadieu? Broke camp and went off on his own to Ukraine. Has not been seen or heard of since.

All things considered, bravo Canada!

coolbert.

Deconfliction.

This is coolbert:

Well how about that! Russians while the American President Biden in Kiev for a good-will visit not hesitating or apparently even slightly delaying to test a brand-new Sarmat-2 intercontinental ballistic missile.

Sarmat-2 as bragged about the Russian only three missiles needed to wipe out all of the American state of Texas!!

"Russia 'carried out intercontinental ballistic missile test' while Joe Biden was in Ukraine on Monday - but it failed and 'didn't pose risk to US'"

From the English DAILYMAIL.COM the story by HARRIET ALEXANDER | 21 February 2023.

* "Joe Biden visited Kyiv on Monday in a visit designed to emphasize U.S. support for Ukraine as the first anniversary of Russia's invasion approaches" * "Moscow was warned several hours in advance that Biden would be there, so there would be no shelling of the capital or his route" * "Yet on Tuesday two sources told CNN that Russia tested an ICMB during the visit - but they warned the US in advance, through deconfliction lines"

"Russia carried out an intercontinental ballistic missile test on Monday while Joe Biden was in Ukraine, according to a report - but warned the U.S. in advance"

WARNED BUT DID NOT DELAY! SARMAT-2 DID NOT POSE A RISK AND FAILED!

USA as has been previously noted however quite willing and able to postpone and delay planned missile tests so as to not cause "misinterpretation" twice with the Russian and once with the Chinese. Alleviating concerns of potential global adversaries at a critical time in history! Concerns and fear of "misinterpretations" however again that do not seem to be reciprocated!

coolbert.

TUSK.

This is coolbert:

Russian tanks the Ukraine Conflict as stated in the previous blog entry being used in a direct-fire mode primarily [?] in support of ground forces. Excessive barrel wear as a consequence accuracy of rounds much less than desired.

Russian armor the Ukraine Conflict at some point too able to operate in the indirect-fire mode as artillery? Fire high-explosive [HE] rounds as did American tankers in Korea!

See the You Tube video:

M26 Pershing tanks indirect firing in Korea [AI, Sound, 60fps, Colorized]

Think also does 'modern American armor [M1 Abrams tank] possess a capacity allowing a ranking ground troop on the outside to communicate with the tank commander via field telephone on the inside? And the answer is yes!

Read here of the TUSK (Tank Urban Survivability Kit) system. There is merit to this. 

"The one tool I didn't expect to find on the back of the Marine Corps' main battle tank".. Here an American Marine uses the TUSK field telephone. Able to converse with the tank commander with ease!

I would like to believe also that TUSK field telephone can be connected to a company or battalion switchboard via WD-1 twisted pair of wire. M1 Abrams indirect fire support and coordination with accuracy quite feasible under such circumstances!!

coolbert.

Wear.

This is coolbert:

As extracted from the web site of "Bayou Renaissance Man" original story thanks to "Strategy Page".

"Are Russian tanks in Ukraine wearing out their cannon?"

 From bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/  | February 2, 2023.

"Strategy Page suggests their barrels may be wearing out."

Russian main-battle tanks now being used primarily much as an assault gun [often referred to as assault artillery] would have been during the Second World 'War.

Valuable armor too susceptible to anti-tank missile fire now relegated to a support role.

"Russia responded . . . by using their remaining tanks only for direct-fire artillery support for Russian troops. This meant using HE (high-explosive) shells that explode when they hit something, usually the ground, and create many high-speed metal fragments that will wound or kill troops and damage structures and unarmored vehicles ... Using 125mm HE shells fired by tanks seemed to be a practical solution. It was, but there were unwanted side-effects."

[. . .]

"Russian tanks in Ukraine appear to have used about 100,000 of these shells and in doing so discovered another problem. These shells caused barrel wear on the 125mm tank gun liners. These liners are common in tank guns and tube artillery. It’s cheaper to replace a worn-out liner than to replace the entire barrel and attached loading mechanism. Tube artillery barrel liners are good for 5,000 to 6,000 shells fired. On Russian tanks the liner wears out after about a thousand shells are fired. Most of the Russian tanks in Ukraine used for firing HE shells found that their barrels already had a lot of wear on them and heavy use of HE increased liner wear to the point where all shells (anti-tank or HE) were much less accurate."

Consider within context the observations of the Soviet defector Suvorov that Soviet/Russian 125 mm gun:

"from the very first look, we all liked the 125 mm gun. It was the most powerful gun in the world and no tank  had ever had anything like it before. Because of its amazing initial velocity, its shells could tear away the turrets of tank-targets and hurl them a distance of about ten meters [thirty-three feet], [a tank turret weighs eight or even twelve tons]."

"But now, upon closer acquaintance, our delight with the T-64's had begun gradually to fade . . . the gun [was] . . . smooth-bored . . . and this immediately adversely affected it accuracy. In fact, it was an all-powerful gun, which always missed the target."

"SOVIET/RUSSIAN  125 MM GUN UNLESS SOME MAJOR CHANGES UNABLE TO HIT THE TARGET TO BEGIN WITH AND EVEN LESS SO NOW!!

coolbert.

Splendidly.

This is coolbert:

A blog entry here based on articles courtesy | thebarentsobserver.com/en/

Item # 1  # 3 authored by Atle Staalesen | item # 2 authored by Georgy Chentemirov.

1. "'None of our guys killed, none injured,' Komi Governor reports from Ukrainian front"

January 23, 2023.

"Hundreds of men are perishing every day, but leader of the north Russian Komi Republic assures that his mobilized countrymen are all fine."

“'Hello from one of the units of mobilized soldiers,' Vladimir Uiba says in the native Komi language in an address to his countrymen. He stands among armed warriors, reportedly somewhere in occupied Ukraine."

"He himself is carrying a uniform with a 'Z' on the shoulder."

“I have talked with the boys and their commanders, and there are no one killed or injured in the battle unit,” Uiba underlines in the video report posted on his Telegram channel."

See all previous blog entries Komi people as relevant to the Ukraine Conflict:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/09/contribution.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/02/komi-i.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2023/02/komi-ii.html

Read also from the wiki of the Komi people:     

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komi_peoples

2. "Military commissar threatens local opposition lawmaker to “get things straight” about why her husband is not at the front"

January 26, 2023.

"Chief draft officer Andrei Artemiev does not like Olga Tuzhikova's human rights activities. Tuzhikova, a member of the Petrozavodsk City Council, is trying to help mobilized and volunteer soldiers to return home."

"The military commissar of Karelia, Andrei Artemiev, has threatened local politician Olga Tuzhikova to 'straighten things out' about why her husband has not been called up for the war in Ukraine. The legislator is a lawyer and well understood this to be a direct threat and revenge for her human rights activities. Tuzhikova helps mobilized and volunteer soldiers who want to return home."

3. "Ahead of deployment in Ukraine, Russian Arctic troops shoot missiles [rockets] near border to Norway and Finland"

January 30, 2023.

"The motorized rifle brigade in Pechenga is exercising with multiple-launch rocket system Grad and self-propelled guns Akatsia only few kilometers [about ten kilometers]  from the two Nordic countries."

"Live fire training this week takes place at the Shary shooting range near Pechenga, the main base of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade. The exercise is lead by officers and instructors with experience from the war against Ukraine, the Northern Fleet informs."

"The shooting range is located only about ten kilometers [6 miles] from the border to Norway. Depending of the projectile, the Akatsia howitzer has a range of up to 24 km [14 miles], while the Grad can shoot rockets up to 30 km [18 miles]."

BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher somewhat dated by modern standards but still quite devastating if used properly. A battalion of such launchers [18 firing pieces] firing simultaneously on the same target can destroy an entire grid square of a thousand meters on a side in mere seconds.

coolbert.

HMCS.

This is coolbert:

“'If it [the mission] includes interdicting arms smuggling at sea, then the risks can be quite significant if the smugglers decide to try fighting back during a boarding inspection,' . . . 'Similarly, if sailors are required to make landfall in Haiti to gather more intelligence on the situation there, they might encounter resistance from the gang.'” - Timothy Choi.

Haiti an unstable and lawless situation without mitigation. Enters the Canadian military? But only at sea.

"Canada sending two small, slow naval ships to Haiti: Here's what they might do there"

From the nationalpost.com the article by Tom Blackwell | Feb 18, 2023  •  

"It's not clear what HMCS Moncton and HMCS Glace Bay can do to help Haiti alleviate its troubles — troubles that mostly exist on land, not at sea"

"Haiti is definitely a country in need. Armed gangs have taken control of much of the nation. Murder and kidnapping is rampant. And the government seems incapable of asserting its authority over the widespread lawlessness."

Indeed! Mr. Choi is correct! Interdiction of smugglers at sea their cargo drugs or weapons such encounters rife with great danger. I would like to think these Canadian vessels will include among the crew personnel such as U.S. Navy SEAL's able to handle or respond appropriately to violent situations.

The Canadian military back in 2007 proposed a Canadian Royal Marine commando regiment but evidently idea went nowhere as a result of budget constraints.

Bumblebee had better have some sting! And no SHORE LEAVE either!!

coolbert.

Ugledar.

This is coolbert:

WHEN A VERY PRO-RUSSIAN INTERNET WEB SITE SAYS SOMETHING IS WRONG YOU KNOW SOMETHING IS WRONG!!

Russian military effort the capture of Ugledar part of parcel of an effort to encircle the Ukrainian besieged bastion of Bakhmut not going according to plan!

"Battle For Ugledar: Russian Forces Lost Initiative On Battlefield (Videos 18+)"

From southfront.org | 17.02.2023.

"The town of Ugledar became one of the bloodiest battlefields on the Donbass front lines. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have focused their main forces on the western and eastern outskirts of the city in an attempt to prevent their encirclement."

[....]

"So far, the Russian offensive, which began at the end of January, has been stopped. The Ukrainian military managed to take advantage of their defense in a city located in the Ukrainian steppe and the miscalculations of the Russian military command."

The plan is the base from which all change is made as circumstances warrant. And the Russian command is adaptable, resilient, flexible and can adjust in a timely manner?

[see also the many embedded video]

Additionally:

"The Fight for Ugledar: Why controlling a small town in southwestern Donbass is so important for the Russian military"

Home Russia & FSU 6 Feb, 2023.

"Moscow is hoping it will be third time lucky as the first anniversary of its offensive approaches"

Russian forces as committed to include the 155th Russian Marine
Brigade. The famous Russian "Black Death". Ground forces of the best personnel only trained to the highest level of performance. They too are stymied?

"Doing The Same Thing Over And Over And Expecting Different Results." The definition of insanity?

HEY! Whatever happened to Mikhail Tukashevskyy and "deep operations"?

coolbert.

VTOL UAV.

This is coolbert:

The Thai navy has Marcus-B. The Russian has O4e0596 VTOL drone. The former strictly as this stage of development confined to naval over-the-horizon reconnaissance. The latter now "weaponized" able to carry a 76 mm naval artillery round.

Courtesy the tweet from "Ukraine Weapons Tracker".

It seems relatively easy to "weaponize" these drones. Strap-on munitions make even small -sized drone lethal! Both Thai and Russia drones in this case battery powered only? Making for a comparatively quiet approach. Almost silent.

There is merit to this mode of operation!

coolbert.

NIBBB.

This is coolbert:

NIBBB = Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade.

Unmasked the culprits of the bandit intruder spy-in-the-sky unidentified object.

SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS BALLOON HOBBYISTS?

"One of the Balloons the Military Shot Down May Have Belonged to A Local Ballooning Club!"

From FM radio station www.959theriver.com the story by NICK JAKUSZ February 17, 2023. A number of tips also from Pablo Escobar.

See these most recent and pertinent tweets:

NORAD flummoxed by a hobbyist balloon as sent aloft by a bunch of kids? Well, I did label these most recent balloon sightings and military activity in response to same as hysterical!! NORAD allied air forces rose to the occasion but not so standing tall but rather sheepish with hindsight!

"flummox: transitive verb - To confuse; perplex"

coolbert.

Rationale.

This is coolbert:

Missiles to shoot down a balloon? Missiles?

"Why the U.S. used missiles, not cheap bullets, to shoot down Chinese balloon, 3 unidentified objects"

From yahoo.com | Peter Weber, Senior editor | February 15, 2023.

U.S. fighter jets fired five heat-seeking AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to take down four aerial objects floating high over U.S. and Canadian airspace between Feb. 4 and Feb. 12, U.S. officials said. The unidentified floating octagon shot down over Lake Huron in upper Michigan required two Sidewinders, because the first one failed to detect the object, 'did not fuse,' and crashed 'harmlessly' into Lake Huron" 

WHY NOT THE INTERCEPTORS USING THEIR ORGANIC 20 MM CANNON AS A MORE APPROPRIATE MEASURE COMMENSURATE WITH COUNTERING THE PERCEIVED THREAT!

Devoted readers to the blog will have to read the entire article and find out the reasoning and rationality of using missiles rather than cannon during the intercept and shoot-down.

An intercept of this nature using air-air missiles as the weapon of choice fraught with more than a degree of danger? Think from over three decades ago now the strange case and never-fully-explained aviation disaster of Itavia 870. 

A Sidewinder can and does [as apparently in the air over Lake Huron] go rogue. Consequences potentially disastrous.

coolbert.

Audio.

This is coolbert:

Devoted readers to the blog encouraged to listen to the audio air-to-air conversations of all aircraft involved in the shoot-down of the unidentified flying object Like Huron.

"Radio Audio From F-16 Shoot Down Of Object Over Lake Huron"

Posted by the "The War Zone" | Feb 14, 2023 | Audio courtesy of Mike in Southwest Wisconsin.

"NOTE: The audio repeats at 14:30 but with a slightly better fidelity from some players."

Indeed, probably better to scroll the play to 14:30 and listen from that point for better fidelity.

Blue lines here represents the "track" of the F-16 interceptors during the balloon shoot-down. Balloon or whatever the object was fired upon just prior to the "object" exiting American airspace. If you look closely at the image [click on graphic to enlarge] you will what is apparently a commercial aircraft about forty-two miles to the east, well out of range of the Sidewinder missile. An E-3 Sentry AWACS flying out of Tinker AFB Oklahoma USA directing the interceptors onto target. A KC-135 tanker reputedly also in the area in case those F-16 needing mid-air refueling. Quite a chase, wasn't it!

Bravo to all involved!

coolbert.

Komi II.

This is coolbert:

Yet more the Komi people go to war! Not all with enthusiasm.

Thanks to the story from "7 X 7 Horizontal Russia" |15 FEBRUARY that tip from yahoo.com.

"A member of the Komi legislative assembly, earlier included on the 'foreign agents' list, is fined 100 thousand rubles for his anti-war video message"

"The court imposed a fine of 100 thousand rubles ($1,460) on Viktor Vorobyov, a member of the Komi legislative assembly, for his anti-war demands. On February 28, he published a video on the VKontakte social network, in which he spoke against the military action in Ukraine. Vorobiev, who in December was included on the «foreign agents» list, told the 7x7 media about the fine on February 14."  

"The court fined Viktor Vorobyov, a member of the State Council of the Komi Republic, who is also included on the foreign agents list, 100 thousand rubles for a video against the military operations in Ukraine. The police filed a report against him for 'abusing the freedom of mass information'"

For background on the Komi people see the wiki entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komi_peoples

coolbert.

Komi I.

This is coolbert:

The Komi people go to war! Not all however.

Thanks to the story from "7 X 7 Horizontal Russia" |16 FEBRUARY that tip from yahoo.com.

"A conscript from the Komi Republic committed suicide after being abused for refusing to go to Ukraine"

"A conscript from the Komi Republic committed suicide in a military unit in the Moscow Region. In his suicide note, he claimed he had been abused for refusing to go to Ukraine. The soldier’s relatives told the 7x7 media about this on February 14."

[....]

"Sergei Gridin, a resident of Pechora, died on February 10 at the age of 21. His sister wrote on social media that her brother 'will never come back from the army.' He had always supported others, but this time he needed support for himself. 'What has worn you down so much that you took such a step?' the sister wonders."

"I’ve made a decision to die here, in my native land, without other people’s blood on my hands" 

See previous blog entry the Komi people go to war the Ukraine Conflict:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/09/contribution.html

coolbert.

Marcus B.

This is coolbert:

Thailand an aircraft carrier? Thailand? Surely does the Thai navy have an aircraft carrier. You learn something new every day.

Thai aircraft carrier now having a eVTOL drone capability. Strictly at this stage of the game only for over-the-horizon reconnaissance. Thanks for the input from www.navalnews.com

eVTOL = Electric powered vertical take-off and landing.

VTOL but fixed wing. Not a quadcopter. See the wiki entry quadcopter. More than anything else watch the video to see how the UAV is assembled and launched.

See the You Tube video:

"Marcus B First Landing on HTMS ChakriNaruebet #MarcusB"

"MARCUS-B is powered by a 60 Ah battery, allowing it to fly for around two hours. It can be used on large navy ships such as frigates, amphibious assault ships, and carriers."

Combat UAV a multitude as carried in the internals of the carrier in a swarm mode of attack creating for the defender an insuperable problem. Very cost efficient too. I think it is intuitive and easily imagined that many units can be purchased just for the cost of a single F-35B.

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Trigger.

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"'We do need to point out, however, that the U.S.'s downing of the unmanned airship with advanced missiles is a trigger-happy overreaction, . . . Many in the U.S. have been asking what good can such costly action possibly bring to the U.S. and its taxpayers?’" -Wang, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

"The People's Republic of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs took jabs at the U.S. on Monday, calling the country 'trigger-happy' to shoot down aircraft."

Consider within historical context the Chinese accusation of American air defense being "trigger-happy".

"trigger-happy: adjective | 1. Having a tendency or desire to shoot a firearm before adequately identifying the target. 2. Inclined to react violently at the slightest provocation."

* Soviet air defense during the Cold War shot down forty of their OWN airplanes within Soviet internal airspace thinking they were hostile.

* Prior to the recent balloon shoot-downs NORAD had not shot down a single airplane or UFO. That within a period of over sixty years!

* After 9/11 on two occasions thought had been seriously given to shooting down two airplanes within American airspace but was not done, planes crashed first.

Read here of the incident involving the errant aircraft carrying among the passengers the famous golfer Payne Stewart. American and Canadian warplanes intercepting but not shooting down.

Read here also of a private plane the course deviation raising what I had thought would have been great alarm. A plane deviating from flight path in the vicinity of a U.S. military production and storage facility of nerve agent VX.

Both planes evidently a catastrophic failure of some sort incapacitating crew and resulting in a diversion from planned course that was seen as a potential danger.

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Bofors L70.

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Ancient and venerable but under the right circumstances still can be effective?

"Lithuania handed over Bofors L70 guns to Kyiv, created more than 70 years ago - OSN"

From https://www.weeklyblitz.net | News Desk | February 12, 2023.

The Lithuanian military sending their entire inventory of  Bofors anti-aircraft artillery [AAA] to Ukraine! A battalion of AAA consisting of eighteen 40 mm firing pieces.

"Politician Alexander Pavlyuk, who took over the leadership of the Kyiv defensive line, pointed to the fact that the Lithuanian side sent Bofors L70 guns to the Nazis."

"The text of this publication says that the work on the creation of anti-aircraft guns was built during the Second World War, and they began to be used more than 70 years ago."

"The militants of the Kyiv regime hope that this type of weapon will allow them to defend their own infrastructure by hitting unmanned aerial vehicles of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation."

My instantaneous response to this news item was that this represents a noble gesture of Lithuanian solidarity with Ukraine. But in this regard I might well be wrong.

Consider:

"Several upgrade packages are offered to keep the guns up to date. One of them is the BOFI package which adds a radar system above the barrel."

Ammunition also available in a pre-fragmented round with proximity fuse!

Variants of the L70 to include:

* REMO   * BOFI   * BOFI-R

* REMO / REnovation MOdernization

* BOFI / Bofors Optronic Fire-control Instrument

See also yet further an Indian army improved and upgraded version of the L70 with specific mission of anti-drone defense, the Zen Anti Drone System (ZADS)

Again, if the L70 used in a reasonable and rational manner can provide a solution to the Shahed-136 kamikaze drone problem? 

Just don't expect miracles!

coolbert.

Leo 1A5.

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Leopard 1A5 NATO tank to the rescue the Ukraine Conflict? We must consider this a while?Leopard 1A5 – See first, shoot first (and then what?)

"Leopard 1A5 – See first, shoot first (and then what?)"

ON FEBRUARY 11, 2023 BY CORPORAL FRISK.

"The news that Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands will join forces to supply 100 Leopard 1A5 is good news for Ukraine. That is the case even if it is significantly older than the Leopard 2A6 and a step below the 2A4 when it comes to protection and raw firepower. It is, however, in some ways what Ukraine needs."

Leopard 1 first entering service in 1965! Generally speaking an inferior model when compared to the most modern Russian armor.

Devoted readers to the blog are strongly encouraged to read the remainder of the Corporal Frisk article. The Corporal knows his stuff.

And in conclusion:

"Corporal Frisk

@CorporalFrisk

...and perhaps most importantly, the 1A5 are available in nice numbers. Yes, they are old. Yes, sourcing spares and ammunition will be a headache. Yes, they will take time to get out of storage. But having tanks is better than not having tanks."

Leopard 1 I well imagine if used judiciously can be of use, even very good use. But again, used in a judicious and suitable manner.

coolbert.

Andaman.

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“When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions” 

Those high-flying Chinese balloons bandit intruder pirate-in-the-sky missions hardly confined to the continental United States. Think too India | Port Blair | Andaman islands | Bay of Bengal | Indian Ocean.

"Chinese High-Altitude Balloons Also Used Over Indian Military Bases"

From the Internet web site "Covert Shores the article by H I Sutton | 04 February 2023.

"The Chinese balloon flying over the United States is getting headlines. The Chinese government has admitted it is there's but claim that it is civilian in nature and that the overflight is accidental. Another has been observed flying over Latin America with reports from Costa Rico and Colombia. There is very strong circumstantial evidence that these are military related 'spy balloons' and that there is a pattern of operation going back at least a year."

Click on image to see an enlarged view. All thanks to H. I. Sutton for the graphic.

[....]

"In January 2022 one of the balloons was photographed overflying Port Blair. This is a strategically located Indian Navy base in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the Indian Ocean. At the time the object was shared on social media but its Chinese origin appears to have been speculation at best (at least in the public sphere)."

See also comments of the Port Blair media the detection of the Chinese balloon as was surmised about.

"Unidentified Flying Object over Port Blair city triggers curiosity and rumors" | Andaman Sheekha January 6, 2022.

99 Red balloons go pop? From 1984 The German songstress Nena warned us of all this decades ago? Didn't she.

coolbert.

Persistance.

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“When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions” - Shakespeare.

And evidently so too the Chinese intruder bandit pirate-in-the-sky intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance balloons.

"REVEALED: China's secret spy balloon base is located on remote and heavily militarized island - as Beijing officials 'refuse to speak to US defense secretary after balloon was downed'"

By PAUL FARRELL and HARRIET ALEXANDER FOR DAILYMAIL.COM | 8 February 2023. 

* "The Chinese spy balloon shot down over US airspace was one of 'dozens" * "The balloons are a 'massive part' of China's elaborate espionage programs" * "Chinese officials have not spoken to US counterparts since the destruction"

Courtesy this graphic the Mail and thanks to same.

"Speaking about the advantages of using a balloon for spying reasons rather than more sophisticated technology, retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Charlie 'Tuna' Moore said: 'If you have a balloon that’s moving extremely slowly you have persistence that you can’t get from a satellite.'"

"US officials have said the balloon was equipped with rudders and propellers."

Then it is I had speculated! These balloons can be steered and course-correction made remotely while in flight.

Balloons also slow movers and usually FILTERED by advanced American military radars? Perceived as not a concern or threat?

coolbert.

Speaks.

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Personally I would prefer these senior American military officers would not talk this way.

1. "US General Speaking in the Philippines: We're ready for war in Asia"

From Hotair ^ | 02/09/2023 | Jazz Shaw | the tip from Free Republic.

"Maj. Gen. Joseph Ryan is the Commanding General of the U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division, based in Hawaii. He’s in the Philippines this week, meeting with some of his Asian counterparts and preparing for several weeks of scheduled military exercises with our allies in the region."

2. "U.S. general predicts war with China in 2025, tells officers to get ready"

From yahoo.com | Courtney Kube and Mosheh Gains | original story NBC News  January 27, 2023

"A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing 'a clip' at a target, and 'aim for the head.'"

NORMALLY pronouncements of this nature by senior military men are highly frowned upon. ESPECIALLY when done in a public setting. Can create too much rancor and problems where not needed.

In particular I am thinking of U.S. General officer John K. Singlaub. 

"In 1977, Singlaub was relieved from his position as Chief of Staff of U.S. forces in South Korea after criticizing President Jimmy Carter's proposal to withdraw U.S. troops from the Korean peninsula in an interview with the Washington Post."

IT IS NOT SO MUCH THE CRITICISM ITSELF BUT THAT IT WAS DONE IN A PUBLIC SETTING.

coolbert.

Huron.

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Yet again continuing more BALLOON HYSTERIA USA and Canada!

NORAD on-the-balloon and in an instant Lake Huron. F-16 intercepting and shooting down octagonal object.

Thanks once more top Disclose.tv. Without a lot of commentary on my part.

This eight-sided object shot down might have been the same intruder also spotted in the skies over Havre, Montana, USA only yesterday??

Persons in authority better get their minds going and rapid fast on this stuff!! This is now a developing story that goes way beyond the original sighting of the Chinese high-flying intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance balloon shot down off the coast of South Carolina! The American public is not going to be satisfied with mere mutterings.

coolbert.

Uruguay.

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Finality BALLOON HYSTERIA! Hysteria not confined to strictly USA? Think China and Uruguay too? Uruguay?

Thanks in all cases to tweet by Disclose.tv.

Bandit intruder pirate-in-the-sky balloon Chinese and Uruguayan airspace? Without a whole lot of commentary on my part.

99 Red balloons go pop? From 1984 The German songstress Nena warned us of all this?

Didn't she!! And as to the conclusion?

coolbert.

Montana.

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Continuing BALLOON HYSTERIA USA!

Thanks in all cases to tweet by Disclose.tv.

Yet one more bandit intruder pirate-in-the-sky balloon Montana? Without a whole lot of commentary on my part.

99 Red balloons go pop? From 1984 The German songstress Nena warned us of all this?

coolbert.

Michigan.

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Here begins a series of blog entries, BALLOON HYSTERIA USA.

Thanks in all cases to tweet by Disclose.tv.

Bandit intruder pirate-in-the-sky balloon American and Canadian airspace? Lake Michigan? Without a whole lot of commentary on my part.

99 Red balloons go pop? From 1984 The German songstress Nena warned us of all this?

coolbert.

BMP-T.

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Killed! The most dangerous Russian beast of them all!

Business Insider

"Ukraine claims its first kill of Russia's 'Terminator' armored vehicle, believed to be one of Putin's most advanced weapon systems"

From yahoo.com | story by Alia Shoaib | February 11, 2023. 

Russia BMPT Terminator armored vehicle.

"The BMPT . . . Tank Support Fighting Vehicle) is an armored fighting vehicle (AFV) . . . This vehicle was designed for supporting tanks and other AFVs in urban areas."

"The 'Terminator,' designed to support armor and infantry units, can engage three targets at once."

"Russia has begun its new offensive in eastern Ukraine, according to one of Ukraine's military commanders."

"Ukraine claims to have destroyed a prized Russian BMP-T armored vehicle, nicknamed the 'Terminator,' in Luhansk."

BMP-T equipped with two 30 mm auto-cannon. Four anti-tank guided-missiles. Two automatic 30 mm grenade launchers. One 7.62 mm machine gun.

The business end of the BMP-T. That 7.62 machine gun mounted between the two 30 mm auto cannon? As to where the two 30 mm auto grenade launchers located I cannot say.

FORMIDABLE ORGANIC FIREPOWER! NOT AN INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLE. DOES NOT CARRY AN INFANTRY FIRE TEAM! ACCOMPANIES ARMOR [TANKS] INTO BATTLE.

Terrifying / frightening / intimidating I concur!

coolbert.

Bandits.

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High-flying unidentified-object Canada shot out of the sky! Only from today!

"High-altitude object shot down over northern Canada"

Courtesy yahoo.com the story by MEREDITH DELISO | February 11, 2023.

"A high-altitude object tracked over northern Canada has been shot down over the Yukon, officials said."

"Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he ordered the takedown of' 'an unidentified object that violated Canadian airspace.'"

"'Canadian and U.S. aircraft were scrambled, and a U.S. F-22 successfully fired at the object,' he [Trudeau] tweeted."

"Canadian Forces will now recover and analyze the wreckage, Trudeau said."

My fear is that this will become a daily occurrence! NORADCommand going to be busy in a way it has never been. Scrambling armed warplanes American and Canadian to intercept intruder / bandit balloons perhaps sent deliberately by foreign powers hostile to the United States merely as a provocation.

One - two - three - many intruder / bandit balloons.

coolbert.

Believers.

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Wagner PMC again a topic of discussion! Tweets from several sources as applicable to the Wagner PMC.

Icons sacred to those of the Russian Orthodox faith rescued courtesy Wagner.

See all recent blog entries the apparent excessive display of religiosity the Russian military:

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/12/vladimir.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/11/38643.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/11/gehenna.html

https://militaryanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/06/protopresbyter.html

AFU = Armed Forces Ukraine.

Additionally the Wagner PMC as self-proclaimed having many American potential volunteers positively respond to slickly done recruiting drive.

Personally I doubt a whole lot of Americans are willing to travel to Ukraine and join the fray especially operating under the auspices of Wagner.

See here that very crafty and artfully done Wagner PMC advertisement appealing to the American citizen.

coolbert.

Inflated.

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Courtesy the Internet web site "Covert Shores" more balloon espionage stuff. Ninety-nine balloons the U.S Navy.

"U.S. Navy & CIA Submarine Launched Spy Balloons"

From http://www.hisutton.com the article by H I Sutton 03 February 2023. 

Think once more from the era of the Cold War the American "spy" balloon Project Genetrix.

"Project Genetrix saw the USAF launch over 500 surveillance balloons, fitted with cameras, over USSR, China and Eastern Europe in the 1950s. What is less well known is that around the same time the US Navy was, with the CIA, experimenting with launching similar balloons from a submarine."

Think also during the same period the U.S. Navy having their own intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance balloon program.

U.S. Navy balloon program in contrast to Genetrix MANNED!

"Unlike the USAF program, the balloons were crewed, with a pilot and CIA photographer. The submarine would surface and the balloon inflated. At the end of mission the balloonists would ditch in the sea and be picked up by another submarine (or possibly the same one)."

Let me get this straight! 1. Submarine would first have surface. 2. Balloon inflated and sent aloft carrying crew. 3. Balloon at considerable altitude I assume drifting rather aimlessly across forbidden airspace. 4. Images would have been taken. 5. Crew ditched balloon [presumably parachuting into the open ocean]. 6. Crew of balloon hopefully rescued intact with film.

And nothing can go wrong!

coolbert.

Ulyanov.

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Yet one more Russian top general officer killed-in-action Ukraine!

Been a while now since the last reported death of a Russian flag rank officer the Ukraine Conflict.

A commander too his unit an elite division of paratroopers. Normally only those senior officers of the highest quality and elan thought worthy of such command.

"Russian Generals Killed in War 'Unbelievably High': Japanese Intelligence"

From https://www.newsweek.com/ the article by BRENDAN COLE ON 2/9/23. 

"Vladimir Putin has lost more of his top commanders in the war in Ukraine than previously reported, according to Japanese and Western intelligence."

"The estimate of Russian generals killed increased to 10 this week after former retired Major General Dmitry Ulyanov, 44, reportedly died in a firefight in the Donbas region. A top paratrooper and commander of the elite 98th Guards Airborne Division, Ulyanov's death was the first among Russian generals reported for several months."

[....]

"The news outlet reported that one theory for such high losses was that Ukraine located commanders by tracking signals from their cell phones, which were used due to communication shortcomings earlier in the war but have since been banned."

I guess depending on who is doing the counting about a dozen to nearly two dozen Russian generals killed during the conflict.

Perhaps it is not merely "communication shortcomings" that is the culprit here? Think rather Russian combat arms elements recalcitrant and hesitant when ordered to perform mission? Senior commanders needed upfront at the Line-of-Contact [LoC] exhorting/goading/prodding their charges forward?

That is my perspective!

coolbert.