Astrology.

This is coolbert:

From the Internet web site of the esteemed Israeli military author and professor Martin van Creveld his comments and observations the Ukraine Conflict [Second Russo-Ukraine War].

Courtesy the Professior and thanks to same with gratitude the first paragraph copies unashamedly so more or less in entirety.

"War in Ukraine"

POSTED ON FEBRUARY 24, 2022

"Asked to predict the future of the war in the Ukraine, I took another look at a book I wrote a couple of years ago. English title, Looking into the Future: A History of Prediction. Working on it taught me two things. First, as everyone knows prediction is extremely difficult and often misses the mark. Not seldom with disastrous consequences; as happened in 1914 when statesmen and soldiers predicted a short and easy war . . . but found themselves involved in the largest, most deadly, armed conflict in history until then. And second, the methods we use today . . . are no better than those that people used thousands of years ago. Such as astrology (Babylon), manipulating yarrow stalks (China), watching birds and consulting oracles (Greece), reading the entrails of sacrificial animals (Rome), interpreting dreams (in all known civilizations), and so on."

Some obvious and very general but probably correct prognostications can be made?

According to the Professor:

* Ukrainians their chances of prevailing very slim. Ukraine hard to defend and Russian military supeiority too great.

* A good chance the conflict will become one of irregular/guerrilla/partisan warfare as waged by the Ukrainian.

* A poor outcome to the conflict from the perspective of the Russian citizenry might mean an end to the Putin regime.

DEVOTED READERS TO THE BLOG READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE. YOU WILL FIND IT INTERESTING. 

coolbert.