War?

This is coolbert:

From a comment to the blog: "... this is a theme that matters me the most. I have tons of questions But I think I can ask the most important right now. Could we be worried that China enters to defend and/or help North Korea like in the previous war? My guess is that North Korea (NK is talking loud to reinforce his image of a solid nation, both internally and internationally, given the fact that they have been under a lot of pressure. And with recent threats they have something with which they can negotiate. Hope you keep us informed on the subject."

And my response:

1. With regard to the increased bellicose [warlike] rhetoric as emanating from Pyongyang recently, Kim Jong Un "shaking his fist", etc., I think the biggest worry right now is that combination of factors to include the youth and inexperience of Kim, the unpredictability confronting the American and South Korean leadership [to include the newly elected President Park] AND that undeniably [?] the North Korean Peoples Army [NKPA] now has some sort of nuclear capacity.

2. Russian and China WOULD NOT INTERVENE in any conflict if indeed Kim gives the go-ahead? This would not be a situation as it was in 1950! I guess the attitude would be: "young man [Kim], if you go ahead and do so, it is your doing, your head might very well end up on the platter and don't EVER come to us asking for assistance. This is not 1950!"

3. Surely Japan in some manner will also enter the fray if indeed shooting starts? The U.S. ALREADY stations forces in Japan and reinforcement sent from the U.S. inevitably will involve transit through Japan. JAPAN WILL NOT SIT IDLY BY!

4. The widespread and persistent use of chemical weapons if so employed by the NKPA will lead to just what sort of response? Nuclear? Such was the possible threat made by Vice-President Quayle in 1991 just prior to the outbreak of the First Gulf War.

5. The economic ramifications to such a conflict [war on the Korean peninsula] are just mind boggling. World wide depression even worse than the conditions that currently exist will be the result?

This current bluster and belligerence not hardly unique but rather in this case again a combination of factors all at once creating uncertainty and a perception worrisome, MISCALCULATION NOT DESIRABLE!!

coolbert.