Nuclear Fission II.

This is coolbert:

"Only a few people in the world have the knowledge to cause an unauthorized detonation of a nuclear weapon," - - Stephen Younger.

"Deterrence is a strategy by which governments threaten an immense retaliation if attacked, such that aggressors are deterred if they do not wish to suffer great [catastrophic] damage as a result of an aggressive action."

"No country, no leaders, unless they really are crazy like a Hitler, wants to be destroyed, wants their country to be destroyed when it comes down it" - - L. Gelb.

Conclusion.

Here with regard to the previous blog entry and the threat posed to the United States and other world powers for that matter if and when Pakistan "goes under", the Pakistani atomic stockpile being compromised in the process, the Taliban AND perhaps Al Qaeda now possessing the ultimate in weapons of mass destruction [WMD]!!

With regard to Mullah Omar and Osama possibly having at their beck-and-call the nightmare that all the counter-terrorism experts have been talking about for decades now; NOT EVERYONE IS BITING THEIR NAILS AND ARE SEEING THE PAKISTANI SITUATION AS BEING THE ABSOLUTELY DIRE SITUATION AS IT IS BEING PRESENTED IN THE MAIN STREAM MEDIA!!?? THE SKY IS NOT NECESSARILY FALLING!!

1. Here from Steve Chapman - - Chicago Tribune. [through Townhall]

"The Other Dangers in Pakistan"

"Stephen Younger, former head of nuclear weapons research and development at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, notes . . . 'that because of technical safeguards (which Pakistan says it has installed), even weapons designers and technicians can't set off a device on their own.' he says."

2. Here from the esteemed foreign affairs expert, Leslie Gelb, a man who has more than a passing knowledge of the mental machinations and rational reasoned calculations involved in the decision to use or not use atomic weaponry. [through National Public Radio/download and listen to the entire four and one half minute interview!]

"Would Nuclear Deterrence Work With Iran, Taliban?"

"'No country, no leaders, unless they really are crazy like a Hitler, wants to be destroyed, wants their country to be destroyed when it comes down it,' he says. 'As bad as these leaders talk in Iran and the Taliban and so forth, they don't ... talk about self-destruction. ... We have no basis for believing they are prepared to be destroyed in the process.'"

Key points [?] from the interview with Gelb:

* Nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the Taliban/Al Qaeda is: "Ultimate nightmare that is driving U.S. foreign policy"

" The Taliban, Mullah Omar and Osama are: "LESS PREDICTABLE, LESS deter-rible" [!]

* Iran/Taliban/Al Qaeda will not be deterred from using atomic weaponry: "NO, THEY DON'T THINK LIKE US." [Shimon Peres]

* Deterrence will not work in certain circumstances. "frankly, I heard just those arguments throughout the cold war"

* Mao was not scared of a nuclear attack: "a billion Chinese, they wouldn't care if the started a nuclear war and lost half a billion people, they would still have 1/2 billion left."

* Soviets and Chinese: "deterrence worked in both those cases"

* "I spent a good part of my life playing nuclear war games against imaginary foes"

* The Taliban/Al Qaeda can be deterred: "I think we think in terms of deterrence"

* "American power not at a total loss."

* Hamas/Hezbollah leaders urge followers to commit suicide bombing attacks, while themselves not doing so: "leaders don't go" . . . "leaders big on sending them, but not going themselves"

Comments:

* There are two schools of thought at work here. One is that even compromised atomic weapons of the Pakistani cannot be used because of the many safeguards built-in from the start to prevent unauthorized usage. [Chapman] Secondly, that deterrence will work equally as well with the Taliban/Al Qaeda as it did with the Soviets and the Chinese. The consequences of using an atomic weapon against the United States and the retaliation that is surely to follow are just so horrible to contemplate. [Gelb]

* As to the statement by Gelb - - "crazy like a Hitler" - - this I must disagree with! I would suggest that Hitler was not "crazy" as the word is normally, ordinarily, and commonly understood. Mercurial, unstable to a degree, given to fits of rage and temper, BUT NOT INSANE!!

* And Mr. Gelb is not quite right about a billion Chinese. The exact [?] quote of Mao during the era of the Cold War was: "go ahead and kill 300 million of us, there will still be 300 million of us left!!" Mao did propose [?] to Khrushchev that the Chinese initiate a war with the U.S., a war which would result in atomic obliteration of the American army, albeit at the cost of half the Chinese population.

* Mr. Gelb was a participant in CSIS "war game" exercises? These type of scenarios are played out all the time? Decisions, hypothetical, regarding when and where to use nukes debated and discussed, again, only in a notional, hypothetical case! Gelb IS AN EXPERT IN THIS REGARD??!!

Let me conclude by saying that if and when those Pakistani atomic weapons fall into the hands of the villains, I already have my gas mask with sealed Mark 95 filters ready, and my bottle of anti-radiation pills close at hand!! Deterrence indeed will work, perhaps, but I am not taking any chances! My appreciation of the situation is less than sanguine.

coolbert.