Thursday, June 16, 2022

Outcome.

This is coolbert:

Once more from the Internet web site of the esteemed Israeli professor Martin van Creveld and thanks to same.

The Ukraine Conflict. End-game or what? Qui lo sa = truth to say.

"Truth to Say, Qui lo Sa?"

POSTED ON JUNE 16, 2022 BY MARTIN VAN CREVELD

"Now that the initial momentum has been spent and replaced by attrition (on both sides), it is possible to speculate about the outcome of the war everyone has been talking about for the last few months."

As extracted from the article of the Professor and in-the-nutshell type of stuff:

* "Outcome No 1. The Ukrainians, supported by the West, succeed in pushing the Russians out and accomplishing their stated objective, which is to reassert their territorial integrity. 

At this EXACT juncture in time consider this outcome to be HIGHLY unlikely.

* "Outcome No 2. A variant of this outcome is the possibility that internal developments in Russia will lead to a change of policy."

Vlad is deposed in some manner and those who follow in a leadership role call a halt to hostilities. 

* "Outcome No. 3. As both sides keep sending in reinforcements, stalemate ensues." 

Donetsk and Luhansk fully incorporated into the Russian Federation but then the stalemated trench-warfare that has persisted since 2014 will just begin anew.

* "Outcome No 4. Reorganizing and bringing their full resources to bear, the Russians renew their offensive."

The MAXIMALIST end to the war in FAVOR of the Russian. Total and unconditional defeat of the Ukrainian military. All of the Ukraine occupied and the entire region brought under total and unchallenged rule of Moscow.

* "Outcome No. 5. Terrorism and guerrilla get under way."

SEE my previous blog entry the subject partisan warfare Ukraine.

"Not only may any of these happen, but they may do so in an endless number of combinations and variations. Truth to say, qui lo sa?"

AND in the worst possible OUTCOME from my perspective the Russian in a fit of insane rage resorts to the tactical nuclear weapon option. A battlefield measure setting off a chain reaction of events too horrible to contemplate.

coolbert.





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